Post-Game Talk: ECQF 4 | FLYERS (2) vs. Canadiens (0) | Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2020 | Flyers lead series 3-1

[Striiker]

We had like a really good record without Coututier a few years ago even ran off a ten game winning streak without him I believe. Surely the solution to all our problems is banning Coututier to the press box for eternity.

As we all know, correlation = causation.

 

[deadhead]

Why is it that the same people who have hot takes just blindly believe data from outlets (that aren't correct) and the same usual suspects who post quality information continue to do so? I swear some people just look for their own confirmational bias and will believe it instantly.

I don't see how anyone looks at this team right now and goes "man I really like what AV is doing". Winning two games in a row by essentially 1 goal is a bad way to go about winning. Montreal isn't an offensive juggernaut of a team. But yeah lets continue to piss away power plays and sit a top 5 pp qb in the press box because he scored an own goal on a 2 on 1 in which the team left him out to dry.

2015-16: GF/60, 8.86 (12)
2016-17: GF/60, 8.89 (9)
2017-18: GF/60, 10.02 (5)
2018-19: GF/60, 5.97 (44), Provorov 3.29 (68)
2019-20: GF/60, 5.98 (48), Provorov 9.13 (7), Niskanen 6.92 (34)

I think it's hard to make the case, until proven otherwise, that Ghost is a top 10 PP QB at this time.
He was once, but he also had better talent to work with from 2015-18.
How much was injuries, how much the falloff in PP talent, how much the league figuring him out?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

We had like a really good record without Coututier a few years ago even ran off a ten game winning streak without him I believe. Surely the solution to all our problems is banning Coututier to the press box for eternity.

I also enjoy often the people who throw that standalone team stat out there that tells us really nothing are the same “I watch with my eyes not a spreadsheet” crowd.

 

[JXC]

We have years of stats, including direct comparisons where they were paired with each other for long stretches, that prove one is decidedly superior to that other. Even in Ghost's "bad" years, Hagg was worse.

When coaches as widely varied as Dave Hakstol and Alain Vigneault have both concluded that Robert Hagg is a better option than Shayne Gostisbehere, guess what?

 

[Beef Invictus]

When coaches as widely varied as Dave Hakstol and Alain Vigneault have both concluded that Robert Hagg is a better option than Shayne Gostisbehere, guess what?

They're both quite wrong and have an established history for favoring bad players for no reason?

Babcock believed Cleary was a top line player. He was very obviously wrong. Coaches can, in fact, be wrong. You know this, you slammed Lavi the whole time he was here.

 

[Appleyard]

Both of them also consistently gave Ghost more minutes than Hagg when they did play him...

since Ghost has had:

3:19
2:43
2:42

more ice-time than Hagg per game in the last 3 seasons. And Hagg has been a healthy scratch just as much as Ghost.

So maybe it is not so clear-cut.

It actually seems like both think Ghost, when playing, brings more to a team overall than Hagg... would not everyone posit? Considering there is no difference in the amount of times have been scratched really, but that both coaches played Ghost ~3 minutes more a night.

 

[Striiker]

When GMs as widely varied as Paul Holmgren and Don Sweeney have both concluded that Zac Rinaldo is an NHL player, guess what?

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Actually doing a deeper dive into things since this morning. We can call Nate Thompson a fourth liner & thats where he is on the lineup card. But in reality this guy is 7th in ice time amongst forwards at 5v5 this series. He’s getting absolutely gashed when he’s on the ice in everywhere but the goals against column which is being held together with duct tape by Carter Hart. He’s not any where near breaking even in shots, chances, etc.

Grant’s 9th & not doing too hot himself. AV’s distributing ice time to this point like there isn’t a giant gap between the talent levels from 1-12 amongst the forwards.

That’s absolutely going to have an effect on your offense at 5v5. Couturier’s line with him & Voracek being the consistent there over that time period is 2-0 at 5v5 the last two games.

Laughton, Konecny, Couturier, Giroux, Hayes, Voracek, Thompson, Pitlick, & Grant in that order are the top nine ice time leaders in 5v5.

Jim Hughson said it best: the Flyers start the game with the Thompson line, their 4th line. But, really, they play like a 2nd or 3rd line.

 

[JXC]

They're both quite wrong and have an established history for favoring bad players for no reason?

Here is Alain Vigneault’s bio: Alain Vigneault - Wikipedia

He was coaching hockey when you were in kindergarten.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Here is Alain Vigneault’s bio: Alain Vigneault - Wikipedia

He was coaching hockey when you were in kindergarten.

Lavi had more coaching experience than you. Please explain what gave you the right to criticize him as harshly as you did, right from the start?


Or do you recant all of that in light of this new "authority is infallible" stance of yours?

 

[Striiker]

5v5 TOI/GP leaders over the past two games

Raffl
Laughton
Couturier
Thompson
Giroux
Pitlick
Konecny
Voracek
Hayes
Farabee
Grant
Bunnaman
NAK
JVR

 

[JXC]

So maybe it is not so clear-cut.

It’s not clear cut, for sure.

And as I have said before, I think Gostisbehere has a chronic hip or knee condition that significantly limits his mobility.

both coaches played Ghost ~3 minutes more a night.

Out of curiosity, are those even strength minutes?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Yes, that's the argument you made. You asserted that Hagg is superior to Ghost using wins and losses.


Are you ready to begin backpedaling?

You have already begun to backpedal.

Last post you implied my argument was that it’s “valid to draw definitive conclusions about relative player value using only wins/losses.” That’s a quote.

I asked if that’s what you are contending I had asserted.

You reply “Yes.” And then try to weasel out by changing it to “You asserted Hagg is better than Ghost by using wins & losses.”

Which is a *different* argument. Notice this time you leave out the “definitive” & “only,” because you know I never made that contention.

And yet it’s still a misrepresentation of what I said.

What I did was cite *two* examples of “actual measurable results while they play” from this season that are in Hagg’s favor over Ghost. (ES points & team record.) Any contention I said anything beyond that is putting words in my mouth.

Honest discussion is fine, but I’m not playing this endless game you like to engage in where you take bits of something somebody said, leave out the rest to eliminate context, & then add your own words to misrepresent what they put forth.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You have already begun to backpedal.

Last post you implied my argument was that it’s “valid to draw definitive conclusions about relative player value using only wins/losses.” That’s a quote.

I asked if that’s what you are contending I argued.

You reply “Yes.” And then try to weasel out by changing it to “You asserted Hagg is better than Ghost by using wins & losses.”

Which is a *different* argument. Notice this time you leave out the “definitive” & “only,” because you know I never made that contention.

And yet it’s still a misrepresentation of what I said.

What I did was cite *two* examples of “actual measurable results while they play” from this season that are in Hagg’s favor over Ghost. (ES points & team record.) Any contention I said anything beyond that is putting words in my mouth.

Honest discussion is fine, but I’m not playing this endless game you like to engage in where you take bits of something somebody said, leave out the rest to eliminate context, & then add your own words to misrepresent what they put forth.

Ah, you're weaseling. Hilarious that you accuse me of being dishonest. Let's go back to the start, instead of engaging in your usual game of obfuscation where you try to sprint full speed from the things you said.

I asked you to prove that Hagg is better than Ghost using actual metrics. The only metric you presented was team wins and losses. In response, I used the exact methodology and logic you used to make an assertion about two other players: Giroux and Thompson.

Suddenly, your own usage of that metric was unappealing and appalling to you, and you felt the need to tear at your own logic.

 

[Striiker]

Lavi had more coaching experience than you. Please explain what gave you the right to criticize him as harshly as you did, right from the start?


Or do you recant all of that in light of this new "authority is infallible" stance of yours?

Don't forget who you're talking to. It's all about agendas.

 

[Appleyard]

It’s not clear cut, for sure.

And as I have said before, I think Gostisbehere has a chronic hip or knee condition that significantly limits his mobility.



Out of curiosity, are those even strength minutes?

Players bring value in areas other than EV...

but Ghost has had more EV time each year too.

+1:19
+0:58
+1:08

Just seems a strange appeal to authority when how both Hakstol and AV have utilised them would probably indicate they actually think Ghost is a more valuable player worthy of a bigger role.

At EV, yeh, they seemingly see him having more value. And seem to think Ghost is valuable in 3v3 and PP situations. While Hagg is a 2nd pairing PKer to them.

Because otherwise them thinking Hagg was better and playing him less would be pretty bizarre logic from both.

 

[JXC]

"authority is infallible"

When I have a toothache, I go to a dentist, not some guy on the Internet. When my roof leaks, I call a roofer, not some guy on the Internet. If there’s blue smoke coming out of the tailpipe of my truck, I call a mechanic, not some guy on the Internet. See what I’m saying?

Don’t think of it as “authority”, man. Think of it as knowledge, wisdom, and experience.

 

[deadhead]

Both of them also consistently gave Ghost more minutes than Hagg when they did play him...

since Ghost has had:

3:19
2:43
2:42

more ice-time than Hagg per game in the last 3 seasons. And Hagg has been a healthy scratch just as much as Ghost.

So maybe it is not so clear-cut.

It actually seems like both think Ghost, when playing, brings more to a team overall than Hagg... would not everyone posit? Considering there is no difference in the amount of times have been scratched really, but that both coaches played Ghost ~3 minutes more a night.

It's more probable that since 2017-18, both coaches felt the difference between the two wasn't substantial enough to favor Ghost absolutely over Hagg. In that case, usage is dictated by situations and need, not the talent gap.

Ghost plays more when he plays b/c he gets more PP time than Hagg's PK time, and generally slightly more ES time.

 

[deadhead]

When I have a toothache, I go to a dentist, not some guy on the Internet. When my roof leaks, I call a roofer, not some guy on the Internet. If there’s blue smoke coming out of the tailpipe of my truck, I call a mechanic, not some guy on the Internet. See what I’m saying?

Don’t think of it as “authority”, man. Think of it as knowledge, wisdom, and experience.

I've had some bad plumbers and mechanics, but I try to replace them with better plumbers and mechanics, not someone off the internet.
Though to be fair, I do research everything on the Internet, I'm just careful who I trust for advice, certainly not 12 year olds.

 

[JXC]

Just seems a strange appeal to authority when how both Hakstol and AV have utilised them would probably indicate they actually think Ghost is a more valuable player worthy of a bigger role.

I’d say it’s equally strange that Ghost’s fans wail incessantly when both Hakstol and AV actually think Ghost is a more valuable player worthy of a bigger role.

 

[Striiker]

The fact that there's even a Ghost vs Hagg discussion going on is such an embarrassment to this fanbase and organization. It's like comparing McDavid to Rinaldo.

There's no debate. Hagg is inferior. The fact that people think coaches are infallible is insanity.

 

[JXC]

I've had some bad plumbers and mechanics, but I try to replace them with better plumbers and mechanics, not someone off the internet.
Though to be fair, I do research everything on the Internet, I'm just careful who I trust for advice, certainly not 12 year olds.

The internet has come a long way, that’s for sure. :-D

 

[Beef Invictus]

When I have a toothache, I go to a dentist, not some guy on the Internet. When my roof leaks, I call a roofer, not some guy on the Internet. If there’s blue smoke coming out of the tailpipe of my truck, I call a mechanic, not some guy on the Internet. See what I’m saying?

Don’t think of it as “authority”, man. Think of it as knowledge, wisdom, and experience.

So, back to my question. If this is your belief, why did you vigorously slam and criticize Lavi from day 1? That's quite the contradiction.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I’d say it’s equally strange that Ghost’s fans wail incessantly when both Hakstol and AV actually think Ghost is a more valuable player worthy of a bigger role.

I'm not a Ghost fan. If he's traded I won't blink (if the return is good) because we have sufficient up and coming talent now, and cap situations may be getting weird enough that even Ghost's value contract needs to go.

What I'm a fan of is putting the best team possible out there. Playing an inferior play over a superior player does not do that, especially when that superior player offers things the team is often missing and that inferior player makes existing problems worse.


The list of players I'm a fan of is pretty much: Giroux, Couturier, Provorov. And you'll find that I have zero problem lighting into them if warranted.

 

[flyersnorth]

Because otherwise them thinking Hagg was better and playing him less would be pretty bizarre logic from both.

Does anyone honestly believe Hagg is a better individual *player* than Hagg?

I think it's simply a matter of those coaches believing that their rosters, as constructed at the time they were making the decisions, were better with Hagg than Ghost.

That's a completely different argument.

It's a bit like the Lightning/Jackets. The Bolts probably have 8 of the 10 best players in the series.

But over two playoff seasons - including one when Tampa set a modern day record for most dominant team - we are seeing that the difference between the two teams head-to-head is very marginal.