ECQF: (1) Washington Capitals vs. (WC2) Toronto Maple Leafs

[missingjibbsclub]

Leafs defencemen are probably filling their pants right now. That Caps offence is just.....yeeeeesh

 

[LegendaryNumber5]

Okay, go look at Bozak's line, then compare it to the Cap's 3rd best line. That is what I'm saying. Toronto has more balanced scoring amongst it's lines, and if you can't see this I don't know what to tell you.

In the playoffs the thing that matters the most is D and goaltending. We can absolutely compare those if you would like.

The Leafs "3rd" line is in name only. If we want to talk their third best line I would say Connolly-Eller-Bura match up just fine with Komarov-Kadri-Brown.

I will also take a playoff tested Johansson- Kuzy- Williams over JVR-Bozak-Marner any day of the week.

 

[Once]

It will be exciting. I fully expect a growth spurt going into next season.

This is the best option for our development imo.. short term pain, long term.. you know the rest

 

[romao]

Okay, go look at Bozak's line, then compare it to the Cap's 3rd best line. That is what I'm saying. Toronto has more balanced scoring amongst it's lines, and if you can't see this I don't know what to tell you.

Ok, but why you call it 3rd line.
Didn't watch Leafs games. But judging by stats they have three lines that play same amount of time (16-17 min). how do you decide what line is first and what is 3rd?
With the same result you can say that Bozak's line is first and it's not as good as Caps' first line. And if you consider Kadri's line as 3rd it's still more productive than Connolly-Eller-Burakovsky, but the gap between them is less significant.

 

[notbias]

In the playoffs the thing that matters the most is D and goaltending. We can absolutely compare those if you would like.

The Leafs "3rd" line is in name only. If we want to talk their third best line I would say Connolly-Eller-Bura match up just fine with Komarov-Kadri-Brown.

I will also take a playoff tested Johansson- Kuzy- Williams over JVR-Bozak-Marner any day of the week.

I've already said Caps should win, and base this on them having better D and G.

All I was saying is Caps lost by the hands of a third line last year. I was arguing Leafs best chance is because we have a better third line, if we can match offence with the top 2 lines (not insanely unlikely) then we may have a shot.

Call Kadri the 3rd line if you want, I believe it is Bozak's line but either way they are better than the Eller line.

16ishG, 15G, 12G vs 32G, 20G, 14G.

 

[LegendaryNumber5]

It will be exciting. I fully expect a growth spurt going into next season.

This is the best option for our development imo.. short term pain, long term.. you know the rest

I agree with you completely. The Leafs will be an absolute force very soon.

Just hope they do not go the Caps route and stay F heavy while fielding a garbage blue line. Wasted a few good years with Ovi and Backstrom

 

[notbias]

Ok, but why you call it 3rd line.
Didn't watch Leafs games. But judging by stats they have three lines that play same amount of time (16-17 min). how do you decide what line is first and what is 3rd?
With the same result you can say that Bozak's line is first and it's not as good as Caps' first line. And if you consider Kadri's line as 3rd it's still more productive than Connolly-Eller-Burakovsky, but the gap between them is less significant.

1st is arguably Kadri. He plays the toughest minutes and is matched against top lines.
2nd is arguably Matthews. Other teams try to match.
3rd is arguably Bozak. Still effective but an after thought usually.

They all roll pretty evenly, and that was my argument is this might be a way that the Leafs can get some goals is by rolling 3 good lines and hoping they can exploit the time that the 3rd or 4th line is against one of the top 3.

Caps can't use the top 2 lines against the top 3 for the Leafs.

 

[LegendaryNumber5]

Ok, but why you call it 3rd line.
Didn't watch Leafs games. But judging by stats they have three lines that play same amount of time (16-17 min). how do you decide what line is first and what is 3rd?
With the same result you can say that Bozak's line is first and it's not as good as Caps' first line. And if you consider Kadri's line as 3rd it's still more productive than Connolly-Eller-Burakovsky, but the gap between them is less significant.

Yea I wasn't taking it as true lines he said the 3rd best line. And statistically that is

Connolly-Eller-Bura Vs. Komarov-Kadri-Brown.

 

[Mattavarner]

Gotta admit we're outgunned in almost every aspect, but if we can steal one of the first 2 anything can happen
The longer the series stays close, the more doubt and pressure it puts on the caps
Just gotta plant the seed.
Not expecting a series win, but I think it will be a lot closer than most here expect
Its good experience for the team nonetheless

 

[Cor]

It all comes down to Game 1.

If the Leafs can whether the early storm, and then get a lead and eventually win the game, a series upset could happen.

But if the Caps win game 1, there is no looking back, even if the Leafs win 1 or 2 games.

 

[LegendaryNumber5]

1st is arguably Kadri. He plays the toughest minutes and is matched against top lines.
2nd is arguably Matthews. Other teams try to match.
3rd is arguably Bozak. Still effective but an after thought usually.

They all roll pretty evenly, and that was my argument is this might be a way that the Leafs can get some goals is by rolling 3 good lines and hoping they can exploit the time that the 3rd or 4th line is against one of the top 3.

Caps can't use the top 2 lines against the top 3 for the Leafs.

The leafs are absolutely stacked with young talent and believe me I will be watching them for years to come as I will with the Oilers... Bottom line... They cannot come even close to the D and goaltending with the Caps and when all the chips are on the table in the playoffs that comes at the highest premium.

 

[txpd]

The point about Kuznetsov and Matthews was that Matthews line never had the puck. Part of that is Toronto's defensive play.

The NHL is a parity league. Any team can beat any team at any time. That said, the Leafs would have been far better off getting a point off of CBJ and playing Ottawa. This is going to be an uphill climb, for sure

I honestly wonder if Babcock isn't going to go 1-4 trap and try and play coin flip hockey

 

[notbias]

The leafs are absolutely stacked with young talent and believe me I will be watching them for years to come as I will with the Oilers... Bottom line... They cannot come even close to the D and goaltending with the Caps and when all the chips are on the table in the playoffs that comes at the highest premium.

Leafs D is underrated, but yes I agree Caps have much better D and I think it'll be evident.

I don't think Andersen is significantly worse than Holtby though.

 

[txpd]

I don't think Andersen is significantly worse than Holtby though.

That is kind of an insult. You either believe that Andersen is an elite, Vezina level goaltender or you think that Holtby is overrated.

 

[LegendaryNumber5]

Leafs D is underrated, but yes I agree Caps have much better D and I think it'll be evident.

I don't think Andersen is significantly worse than Holtby though.

Andersen is a quality netminder; however, Holtby is elite and one of the only goaltenders to post 3 40+ win seasons in a row. Additionally when he hits the playoffs he goes into God Mode and has the best sv% in NHL history. The Caps have lost series with him playing only because the collective goaltending they have faced mainly Lundqvist and Murray would be good enough to be #2 all time.

Holtby's playoff stats: 46gp .938sv% 1.87gaa
Andersen's Playoff stats: 28gp .916sv% 2.34gaa(damn good by most standards)

 

[Kuz]

1st is arguably Kadri. He plays the toughest minutes and is matched against top lines.
2nd is arguably Matthews. Other teams try to match.
3rd is arguably Bozak. Still effective but an after thought usually.

They all roll pretty evenly, and that was my argument is this might be a way that the Leafs can get some goals is by rolling 3 good lines and hoping they can exploit the time that the 3rd or 4th line is against one of the top 3.

Caps can't use the top 2 lines against the top 3 for the Leafs.

Still youre forgetting that Caps have a way better 4th line than the Leafs. The Leafs have 3 players in their top 6 Komarov, Hyman and Brown producing around what two of the Caps 4th line players do with 0,44 to 0,34 on those 3 players while Beagle 0,37 and Winnik 0,35 are producing on the same level.

I showed you what the best 7 players on each team are producing, but it gets worse the deeper you look. The 3rd line of the Leafs definetly looks at least on pair or better than the Caps on paper(I question the Toronto 3rd lines defensive play while I know the Caps 3rd line is pretty solid both ways), but its not that weird the Leafs 3rd looks solid when your 2nd, 3rd and 6th most productive players play on that line. The question is what the top two lines can produce when most of the talent are on the third line.

 

[notbias]

The point about Kuznetsov and Matthews was that Matthews line never had the puck. Part of that is Toronto's defensive play.

The NHL is a parity league. Any team can beat any team at any time. That said, the Leafs would have been far better off getting a point off of CBJ and playing Ottawa. This is going to be an uphill climb, for sure

I honestly wonder if Babcock isn't going to go 1-4 trap and try and play coin flip hockey

Kiznetsov went 0-0-0, 1-3-4, 0-0-0 - Total 1g-3a-4p.
Matthews went 1-0-1, 0-2-2, 0-0-0 - Total 1g-2a-3p.

My argument was it is evenly matched, agree or disagree, that's fine. One of the games that Matthews never had the puck cause Kuznetsov wouldn't allow it, he still managed two assists.

I agree, I would have much rather play Ottawa, I don't like our chances, but I think they are better than some give us credit for.

 

[notbias]

Andersen is a quality netminder; however, Holtby is elite and one of the only goaltenders to post 3 40+ win seasons in a row. Additionally when he hits the playoffs he goes into God Mode and has the best sv% in NHL history. The Caps have lost series with him playing only because the collective goaltending they have faced mainly Lundqvist and Murray would be good enough to be #2 all time.

Holtby's playoff stats: 46gp .938sv% 1.87gaa
Andersen's Playoff stats: 28gp .916sv% 2.34gaa(damn good by most standards)

And last year
Andersen - 1.41gaa and .947sv%
Holtby - 1.72gaa and .942sv%

Andersen has the potential to steal games and series.

I agree Holtby is better, but I don't agree that he is way better than Andersen, he has the luxury of a better defensive team in front of him.

I think D is where you have a big advantage and it will show.

 

[notbias]

Still youre forgetting that Caps have a way better 4th line than the Leafs. The Leafs have 3 players in their top 6 Komarov, Hyman and Brown producing around what two of the Caps 4th line players do with 0,44 to 0,34 on those 3 players while Beagle 0,37 and Winnik 0,35 are producing on the same level.

I showed you what the best 7 players on each team are producing, but it gets worse the deeper you look. The 3rd line of the Leafs definetly looks at least on pair or better than the Caps on paper(I question the Toronto 3rd lines defensive play while I know the Caps 3rd line is pretty solid both ways), but its not that weird the Leafs 3rd looks solid when your 2nd, 3rd and 6th most productive players play on that line. The question is what the top two lines can produce when most of the talent are on the third line.

I know exactly who is on your 4th line and how they produce, and I know who is on our 4th line. I think it is a wash. You can go by ppg if you want but that isn't generally the role of the 4th line. Each player will have 2pts from your 4th line over a 7 game series if we go by ppg, 4th line players are role players normally and I think both teams have one of the best 4th lines in the game.

And Babcock runs lines in a certain way.
He has one puck retriever and 2 skill players usually, which is why Hyman is with the Matthews-Nylander line.
Kadri's line is just 3 defence first players, Brown still has 20G and Kadri has 32G.
Bozak's line is the leftovers it seems, they are all skill players and can produce, no puck retrievers, but it works.

 

[Sam Spade]

Listening to TSN this morning and now I am convinced the Caps don't have a chance.

 

[txpd]

Kiznetsov went 0-0-0, 1-3-4, 0-0-0 - Total 1g-3a-4p.
Matthews went 1-0-1, 0-2-2, 0-0-0 - Total 1g-2a-3p.

My argument was it is evenly matched, agree or disagree, that's fine. One of the games that Matthews never had the puck cause Kuznetsov wouldn't allow it, he still managed two assists.

I agree, I would have much rather play Ottawa, I don't like our chances, but I think they are better than some give us credit for.

Kuznetsov's line playing evenly with Matthews line isn't good for TO. Checking back, yes, yer boy had 1 even strength assist in those last two games. He had 1 shot on goal in each of those two games as well.

I wish they would just drop the damn puck

 

[Daisy Jane]

Being fair to the Leafs, how many of those OTLs came in the early half of the season?

almost all of them

Something that people have pointed out is that Babcock has been on the Washington Capitals side of the bench facing the.. well Toronto Maple Leafs side of the bench. (and vice versa).


For the "miracle" well: In 2003 he coached (and Gigure turned into like Vezina himself) - a team that no one thought had any business getting past Detroit - and did. (and everyone else, until the cup final. where you know. Stevens practically killed Kariya with one hit still my favourite OH MAH GAWD moment in hockey).

For the "Oh. crap." moment. he was upset in 2006 by Edmonton. and Detroit had the Presidents trophy that year.


I also think a lot of players will have shorter leashes. (Hyman. looking right at him) and he'll be more likely to mix things up especially if they are down, (which will be really interesting to see). this entire year (getting to this moment) was all about development and letting the kiddos test their limits. in the Playoffs, - this is where (you'd think anyway) we'd stack some lines and 'development' will take a back seat. (he always put Dats/Zetterberg together when he needed a goal), so I would imagine if need be, he'd be riding Matthews, Marner Nylander hard (what's the worse that could happen at this point? we'd lose more?)

this is going to be so fun. I do firmly think the Leafs team is too talented to be swept. (it doesn't mean it won't/can't happen, I just think it's very very unlikely - unless say 2, 3 games end up in overtime) I think the 6-5 Caps win game in OT is the best example to see what both teams are capable of with the same amount of rest + chances. the leafs can get to holtby and if they falter with the lead Washington can come right back - but the Leafs CAN hold their own.

 

[notbias]

Kuznetsov's line playing evenly with Matthews line isn't good for TO. Checking back, yes, yer boy had 1 even strength assist in those last two games. He had 1 shot on goal in each of those two games as well.

I wish they would just drop the damn puck

Obviously it isn't good, I want Matthews line to dominate, but I'm being realistic and I think it is evenly matched.

First line you guys dominate and 3rd line we are better, this is why I've stressed multiple times that you guys should win, unless our "3rd line" can step up big, much like the HBK line did against you guys.

I'm so anxious to see playoff hockey too, I'm just hoping for an exciting series and if we get beat, I'd like it to at least be close enough games that it is enjoyable. Only plus about playing you guys is we got an extra days rest, our team has looked insanely tired for the last 5-6 games.

Also, Caps are my second team, Ovi is my favourite player (after anyone on the Leafs) and I want to see him lift a cup at some point.

 

[txpd]

The problem with the HBK line thing was that the Caps got no scoring from their bottom six except for Jay Beagle. Also the K in HBK. You don't have anything like that guy on your team other than Matthews.

 

[notbias]

The problem with the HBK line thing was that the Caps got no scoring from their bottom six except for Jay Beagle. Also the K in HBK. You don't have anything like that guy on your team other than Matthews.

2015-16 Kessel
82gp - 26g - 33a - 59p (0.72)

Matthews, Nylander, Kadri, Marner, JVR all have higher ppg this season.
Bozak is .01 behind him.
All the players mentioned are better than him defensively.

Kessel has flash, I know what he is as a player. Production wise we have similar players.