ECQF: (1) Washington Capitals vs. (WC2) Toronto Maple Leafs

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

The funny thing is that the people voting Leafs in 4 are just fooling around but the people who voted Leafs in 7 probably believes in it, hehe.

at that point it's 1 game and anything can happen in 1 game

 

[Aliceanna]

A quick start is crucial to both teams (the Leafs obviously moreso).

Washington leads the league in 1st period goals. The Leafs are 2nd.

Washington leads the league in time spent leading. The Leafs are 2nd.

It is impressive that the #1 and #2 teams at scoring in the first are facing each other in the first round. It is also impressive that the two teams who spend the most time leading in games are meeting in the first round.

But it's not just about getting the lead, it's what you do with it:

Caps are #1 in the league when leading after the first period, with a record of 34-4-4 for a win% of .810.

Leafs are #6 in the league when leading after the first period, with a record of 25-1-9 for a win% of .714

When leading out of the second period:

Caps: 41-1-1, win% .953, #1 in the league

Leafs: 31-1-9, win% .756, #9 in the league

Obviously, in a short series, anything can happen, but that is a huge disparity (since, for some reason, we're already discounting the huge disparities in all other regular season stats, this one probably doesn't matter in the playoffs, and probably doesn't show any difference in mental and physical fortitude between the two teams, despite the fact that one team is better in every metric, has been there plenty of times before, and has only one thing to play for, compared to an exceptional group of rookies who are awesome, but have not yet even encountered disappointment, adversity, or obstacles like NHL playoff hockey).

As an always-nervous Caps fan, these "leading after" stats show me a team who understands that they have to get up early and lock it down. I don't think that's something the Leafs have mastered yet. I am more optimistic looking at these numbers about my team's mental fortitude, which is one of the primary things people are ragging on when they call the Caps "chokers" (other Caps fans in this thread have already dissected why that tag doesn't really apply over the past few seasons, so I won't go into it again).

 

[Aliceanna]

Ha, I've wondered that, too. Doesn't seem to make sense why they're not the Capitols.

Something every DC schoolchild learns very quickly growing up: a capitAl is the seat of government of a country, the top of a column, the head of a list, the first letter in a sentence or paragraph. A capitOl is a building.

Obviously, for a sports team, being a capitAl is a good thing. Being a building, not so much. This is partly why the Washington basketball team, when renamed, wasn't called the Monuments. It would have been a catchy and relevant name, for sure, but big stone edifices in memorial to something that has died aren't in any way an imposing or scary sports metaphor.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

The funny thing is that the people voting Leafs in 4 are just fooling around but the people who voted Leafs in 7 probably believes in it, hehe.

I hovered my mouse pointer around the Caps in 5, 6 etc and then my brain said "wtf are you doing? Show your Leafs some love!" and went with Leafs in 4.



Wow, the Leafs are MASSIVE underdogs going into this to the point that it's got to be apparent to not just this forum but the teams, management, media etc.

That's zero pressure on the Leafs going into this, who knows?

Expecting to get massacred, but **** man what if the Leafs win one of those first two games.......huh?

 

[notbias]

One thing that I think may be in the Leafs' favour is balanced scoring.

Assuming Babcock can get his matchups and Kadri can do well shutting down the top line (which he's been doing) and I think it is safe to say Matthews' line and Kuznetsov's line are at least close to evenly matched then it leaves JVR-Bozak-Marner against Connolly-Eller-Burakovsky which I think is in favour of the Leafs. I also believe the Leafs have the better 4th line.

If it is a tight checking series, then secondary scoring could be a factor and I think Toronto has more of it.

Mind you the D for Washington are more likely to put up more points than the D for Toronto so forward depth may be nullified.

But the forward groups may be closer than people want to admit, and may even favour the Leafs here.

 

[Aliceanna]

In 7 of the 10 sweeps, the sweeping team was worse in the regular season. I have mentioned before that I think this is due to the worse team playing the start of the series on the road, where a win in the first game provides a strong psychological advantage for the weaker team and a strong psychological disadvantage to the stronger team - which does not happen when it is the other way around - the stronger team is expecting to win the first game at home, and the weaker team is not concerned with the loss of the first game on the road.

kudos for the hard work compiling those stats. Unfortunately, I don't think they're particularly telling for this series matchup, mostly because they entirely ignore the circumstances of the teams involved. Most people aren't relying solely on the record of the teams to predict the outcome (though it plays a part, certainly), but on the developmental stage of the teams, respective to each other.

It's been mentioned, but the current Leafs' team is exciting, fun, and way ahead of its timetable. It's a team filled with rookies who managed to surpass the teams of even Crosby and Ovechkin's rookie years by making the dance immediately after being in last place. But that doesn't make this Leafs team one who is going to make any noise in the playoffs--as neither Crosby or Ovechkin's teams did the first time they showed up for the postseason party. The Leafs have already proven themselves better, but it won't be that much better (and having a whole whack of talented rookies to go along with your superstar generational talent helps a ton, but the pups still have to learn).

Nevertheless, no sensible Caps fan is expecting a sweep. I voted for Caps in 5, but I could easily see 6, because I don't take the Leafs lightly in the least. They are extremely talented. The Caps are better.

I have also mentioned that since Toronto's last decent break (3 days off) they are 12-5-1 in 18 games. That includes the 1-3-0 that they finished off the season. Over those last 18 games, they played at 114 point/82 game pace and were better than the Caps over their final 18 games (11-6-1) and the only teams that I can think of to have a better record over their final 18 games is Edmonton (13-4-1) and Anaheim (13-2-3) (Montreal is also 12-5-1).

This is kind of the epitome of "cool story, bro." You picked an advantageous point to count your team from. People in this thread keep talking about how the last Caps-Leafs game shouldn't be given full credit because the Leafs played the night before and the Caps didn't, and it was the two backups in goal.

Well, it was the Leafs' 5th game in 8 days, I believe? It was also the Caps' 5th game in 8 days. I have no idea which teams the Leafs played in those previous games, but the Caps had just been through 4 time zones in the prior 4 games, playing the Wild, Avs, Coyotes, and Jackets--that last one a huge game with division titles on the line.

I have seen a ton of comments in this thread about how that last game where the Caps were men among boys vs. the Leafs didn't mean anything because of Grubauer and the Leafs being on the back end of a B2B. If the Leafs beating the Caps in November has any bearing--or them chasing Holtby in a single game that sparked him on a vicious tear of shutouts means a single little thing, well, I say bull to all of that. The Caps had just been through a very big ton of garbage themselves before the recent drubbing--and also managed to play an entirely garbage game against the Coyotes on that trip. Does that mean the Coyotes are superior to the Caps? Obviously not.

The Caps are simply at a different point, maturity-wise, for the playoffs than the Leafs are. I appreciate the realistic Leafs fans in this thread who recognize that the Caps have been through bloody hell for years and know that losing to them will be no slight, and that the Leafs are amazing and will continue to amaze for years. But this series will be the Caps' series. Caps in 5, but I won't be stressed with 6. The Leafs are talented, exciting, and have excellent coaching. They will be a playoff force in years to come.

 

[Sam Spade]

Of course the series will be competitive, it's the NHL any team can beat any team on a single night. The Caps are better than the Leafs and over seven game that show out.

Andersen, like Nuevirth last season, can easily steal games, so there is zero chance this is a sweep, I think most sensible people know this.

Caps just need to play the game they have played the last 40 games. Pound the kids every chance they get, pound the D, and get balanced scoring.

Leafs have dummied Holtby this season, as long as he steps up Caps should be good.

 

[Kuz]

One thing that I think may be in the Leafs' favour is balanced scoring.

Assuming Babcock can get his matchups and Kadri can do well shutting down the top line (which he's been doing) and I think it is safe to say Matthews' line and Kuznetsov's line are at least close to evenly matched then it leaves JVR-Bozak-Marner against Connolly-Eller-Burakovsky which I think is in favour of the Leafs. I also believe the Leafs have the better 4th line.

If it is a tight checking series, then secondary scoring could be a factor and I think Toronto has more of it.

Mind you the D for Washington are more likely to put up more points than the D for Toronto so forward depth may be nullified.

But the forward groups may be closer than people want to admit, and may even favour the Leafs here.

Are you sure about that? Leafs have definitely spread out there talent a little bit more, but if you look at points for the players the Caps are way ahead.

1,05>0,84 Backström total 17 points more than Matthews
0,84>0,82 Ovechkin 4 points more than Marner in a full season
0,82>0,76 Oshie 5 points ahead of JVR
0,72<0,75 Nylander 2 points ahead of Kuznetsov
0,71<0,74 Kadri ahead of Nylander by 2 points
0,60<0,71 Bozak ahead of Williams by 9 points
0,55>0,44 Burakovsky ahead of Brown by 9 points

The 4th line production also heavily favours the Caps and the defencemens are also better offensively where Shattenkirk is the clear number one with 0,70 and then Carlson, Niskanen and Zaitsev are all around 0,50.

 

[Paralyzer008]

I think this will be a closer series than people realize, and here's why:

1. Mike Babcock is one of the best coaches in the NHL. You bet he'll have a strategy to combat some of WSH's strengths.

2. Toronto has a balanced offensive attack that is better than some of the other teams Washington could have drawn. Toronto can score from 3 of their lines, at least.

3. Washington is prone to being upset/choking.

4. Freddy Andersen is capable of stealing a game or two.

After saying all of that, I'm still going Washington in 7. However, Toronto isn't going to go away quickly.

 

[notbias]

Are you sure about that? Leafs have definitely spread out there talent a little bit more, but if you look at points for the players the Caps are way ahead.

1,05>0,84 Backström total 17 points more than Matthews
0,84>0,82 Ovechkin 4 points more than Marner in a full season
0,82>0,76 Oshie 5 points ahead of JVR
0,72<0,75 Nylander 2 points ahead of Kuznetsov
0,71<0,74 Kadri ahead of Nylander by 2 points
0,60<0,71 Bozak ahead of Williams by 9 points
0,55>0,44 Burakovsky ahead of Brown by 9 points

The 4th line production also heavily favours the Caps and the defencemens are also better offensively where Shattenkirk is the clear number one with 0,70 and then Carlson, Niskanen and Zaitsev are all around 0,50.

You just listed off your top 2 lines, you picked players from the top 3 lines for Toronto. I am saying there is more offensive depth, implying we get scoring from our top 9 and you rely more on your top 6, so you are proving my point, thank you.

You only had 11 more goals than Toronto this year, you can't claim better depth and more offensive D. Your offence flows through your top 2 lines and not top 3 like Toronto. I'm not saying it'll happen, but if Toronto has a chance it could by exploiting whichever line isn't being matched with one of your top 2.

I think this is how Babcock will try to get the matchups going.

Line 1 vs Line 1
Ovi - Backstrom - Oshie vs Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Adv. Washington. Kadri's line has their hands full trying to shut down this line, I think this will be the deciding factor if this is a close series or not.

Line 2 vs Line 2
Johansson - Kuznetsov - Williams vs Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Even? I'd argue for Matthews line being the more dangerous line, but I think calling it even is fair enough.

Line 3 vs Line 3
Connolly - Eller - Burakovsky vs JVR - Bozak - Marner
Adv. Toronto. I think this a clear win, and if Toronto is going to make a run of this, this line needs to produce.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

One thing that I think may be in the Leafs' favour is balanced scoring.

Assuming Babcock can get his matchups and Kadri can do well shutting down the top line (which he's been doing) and I think it is safe to say Matthews' line and Kuznetsov's line are at least close to evenly matched then it leaves JVR-Bozak-Marner against Connolly-Eller-Burakovsky which I think is in favour of the Leafs. I also believe the Leafs have the better 4th line.

If it is a tight checking series, then secondary scoring could be a factor and I think Toronto has more of it.

Mind you the D for Washington are more likely to put up more points than the D for Toronto so forward depth may be nullified.

But the forward groups may be closer than people want to admit, and may even favour the Leafs here.

Nothing favors the Leafs.

 

[txpd]

I think this is how Babcock will try to get the matchups going.

Line 1 vs Line 1
Ovi - Backstrom - Oshie vs Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Adv. Washington. Kadri's line has their hands full trying to shut down this line, I think this will be the deciding factor if this is a close series or not.

Line 2 vs Line 2
Johansson - Kuznetsov - Williams vs Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Even? I'd argue for Matthews line being the more dangerous line, but I think calling it even is fair enough.

Line 3 vs Line 3
Connolly - Eller - Burakovsky vs JVR - Bozak - Marner
Adv. Toronto. I think this a clear win, and if Toronto is going to make a run of this, this line needs to produce.

Except that it wont workout like that. Trotz is coaching too. The Caps get home games and the last change too. Trotz uses Winnik Beagle and Wilson more than the Eller line.

 

[notbias]

Except that it wont workout like that. Trotz is coaching too. The Caps get home games and the last change too. Trotz uses Winnik Beagle and Wilson more than the Eller line.

Either way, you have to match with one of the top 3 lines. I'm not saying they will be exploited, just that is a way that Toronto can attack. Because you guys are top heavy, whoever is going to be matched with the Wilson line needs to score.

I think the forwards are far closer than anyone wants to admit. You guys have us beat in D and goal.

 

[Iceman]

I hovered my mouse pointer around the Caps in 5, 6 etc and then my brain said "wtf are you doing? Show your Leafs some love!" and went with Leafs in 4.



Wow, the Leafs are MASSIVE underdogs going into this to the point that it's got to be apparent to not just this forum but the teams, management, media etc.

That's zero pressure on the Leafs going into this, who knows?

Expecting to get massacred, but **** man what if the Leafs win one of those first two games.......huh?

I guess the highest possibility of winning a game for the Leafs is the first game (highly possible and not out of this world) but what would it change? Give false hope? :p

 

[TMLegend]

Gee, for a series that has a consensus predicted rout in 4/5 games this thread sure has a lot of chatter. I wonder why that is?

If by some miracle the Leafs do win, lots of people are gonna need meds for their salt intake.

 

[txpd]

Either way, you have to match with one of the top 3 lines. I'm not saying they will be exploited, just that is a way that Toronto can attack. Because you guys are top heavy, whoever is going to be matched with the Wilson line needs to score.

I think the forwards are far closer than anyone wants to admit. You guys have us beat in D and goal.

I imagine that the Caps wont care too much about the matchups. go back and look at the last two games between the teams. Kuznetsov skated circles around Matthews. Didn't score a point in the 6-5 games but wouldn't let Matthews touch the puck. As a rule the Caps use Backstrom or Beagle to do that.

Trotz likes to roll 4 lines. He is perfectly comfortable with putting Tom Wilson on the ice v the Matthews bunch. You don't want to see that. He often just goes power v power and Backstrom always wins that.

Meanwhile, the game goes two ways. There is defense. The Caps are #1 in goals against and the Leafs are #22. This would be a difference of some significance. Don't you think?

 

[Syckle78]

Gee, for a series that has a consensus predicted rout in 4/5 games this thread sure has a lot of chatter. I wonder why that is?

If by some miracle the Leafs do win, lots of people are gonna need meds for their salt intake.

I too am bewildered a toronto thread has a lot of posts.

 

[txpd]

Gee, for a series that has a consensus predicted rout in 4/5 games this thread sure has a lot of chatter. I wonder why that is?

If by some miracle the Leafs do win, lots of people are gonna need meds for their salt intake.

Lots of Leafs fans(its Leafs not Leaf fans...saw that corrected by a Leafs fan on the Caps board this morning) talking among themselves on as many boards as they can. They cant get enough. Good for them.

 

[notbias]

I imagine that the Caps wont care too much about the matchups. go back and look at the last two games between the teams. Kuznetsov skated circles around Matthews. Didn't score a point in the 6-5 games but wouldn't let Matthews touch the puck. As a rule the Caps use Backstrom or Beagle to do that.

Trotz likes to roll 4 lines. He is perfectly comfortable with putting Tom Wilson on the ice v the Matthews bunch. You don't want to see that. He often just goes power v power and Backstrom always wins that.

Meanwhile, the game goes two ways. There is defense. The Caps are #1 in goals against and the Leafs are #22. This would be a difference of some significance. Don't you think?

I'm not arguing the Leafs will win, I picked Caps in 6. I have no issue saying the Caps are a better team. I have an issue with people dismissing the Leafs or saying this will be an easy series or done in 4. I just don't see it.

Great so 2/3 games Kuznetsov neutralized Matthews and you just admitted Kuznetsov didn't exactly light it up, I think those lines matchup evenly. The series is 1-1-1 for the season. The last game was ugly, I think recency bias is affecting some people's judgement too much.

Babs and Trotz both roll 4 lines it seems and trust their entire line up. It's great that Trotz would trust Wilson against Matthews but I don't think it'd be beneficial to continually pursue that matchup. Why wouldn't I want to see Wilson against Matthews? He's going to run around and try to hit him? They are the same size and Matthews isn't easy to hit, that's like telling you to watch out cause Polak is going to run Ovi.

And lets be honest here, the last few years in the playoffs has Backstrom been winning the power vs power matchups? Everyone has been saying "playoffs are different than regular season", yet everyone is writing off the team who they haven't seen in the playoffs and have nothing to lose, against the team with all the pressure on them to win the cup and don't have a great track record.

The Leafs have worse defence and goaltending, I conceded this. All I was saying is that the Caps are top heavy, and whoever you deem our 3rd line will have the best chance at making a difference in this series.

 

[vippe]

I like my teams chances. Caps are a better team than the Leafs.

But I will never take anything for granted when it comes to the post season, especially when it comes to the Caps.. so I wont make a prediction I will just hope that Caps play as well as we know they can and if they do, they should win.

Go Caps go!

 

[vippe]

I'm not arguing the Leafs will win, I picked Caps in 6. I have no issue saying the Caps are a better team. I have an issue with people dismissing the Leafs or saying this will be an easy series or done in 4. I just don't see it.

Great so 2/3 games Kuznetsov neutralized Matthews and you just admitted Kuznetsov didn't exactly light it up, I think those lines matchup evenly. The series is 1-1-1 for the season. The last game was ugly, I think recency bias is affecting some people's judgement too much.

Babs and Trotz both roll 4 lines it seems and trust their entire line up. It's great that Trotz would trust Wilson against Matthews but I don't think it'd be beneficial to continually pursue that matchup. Why wouldn't I want to see Wilson against Matthews? He's going to run around and try to hit him? They are the same size and Matthews isn't easy to hit, that's like telling you to watch out cause Polak is going to run Ovi.

And lets be honest here, the last few years in the playoffs has Backstrom been winning the power vs power matchups? Everyone has been saying "playoffs are different than regular season", yet everyone is writing off the team who they haven't seen in the playoffs and have nothing to lose, against the team with all the pressure on them to win the cup and don't have a great track record.

The Leafs have worse defence and goaltending, I conceded this. All I was saying is that the Caps are top heavy, and whoever you deem our 3rd line will have the best chance at making a difference in this series.

Top heavy? Caps have one off the deepest squads in the league.

 

[notbias]

Top heavy? Caps have one off the deepest squads in the league.

Okay, go look at Bozak's line, then compare it to the Cap's 3rd best line. That is what I'm saying. Toronto has more balanced scoring amongst it's lines, and if you can't see this I don't know what to tell you.

 

[ovikovy817]

I'm not arguing the Leafs will win, I picked Caps in 6. I have no issue saying the Caps are a better team. I have an issue with people dismissing the Leafs or saying this will be an easy series or done in 4. I just don't see it.

Great so 2/3 games Kuznetsov neutralized Matthews and you just admitted Kuznetsov didn't exactly light it up, I think those lines matchup evenly. The series is 1-1-1 for the season. The last game was ugly, I think recency bias is affecting some people's judgement too much.

Babs and Trotz both roll 4 lines it seems and trust their entire line up. It's great that Trotz would trust Wilson against Matthews but I don't think it'd be beneficial to continually pursue that matchup. Why wouldn't I want to see Wilson against Matthews? He's going to run around and try to hit him? They are the same size and Matthews isn't easy to hit, that's like telling you to watch out cause Polak is going to run Ovi.

And lets be honest here, the last few years in the playoffs has Backstrom been winning the power vs power matchups? Everyone has been saying "playoffs are different than regular season", yet everyone is writing off the team who they haven't seen in the playoffs and have nothing to lose, against the team with all the pressure on them to win the cup and don't have a great track record.

The Leafs have worse defence and goaltending, I conceded this. All I was saying is that the Caps are top heavy, and whoever you deem our 3rd line will have the best chance at making a difference in this series.

Look at Giroux and Crosby number from round 1 and round 2 respectively( last postseason)

 

[Mitts Marner*]

It is impressive that the #1 and #2 teams at scoring in the first are facing each other in the first round. It is also impressive that the two teams who spend the most time leading in games are meeting in the first round.

But it's not just about getting the lead, it's what you do with it:

Caps are #1 in the league when leading after the first period, with a record of 34-4-4 for a win% of .810.

Leafs are #6 in the league when leading after the first period, with a record of 25-1-9 for a win% of .714

When leading out of the second period:

Caps: 41-1-1, win% .953, #1 in the league

Leafs: 31-1-9, win% .756, #9 in the league

Obviously, in a short series, anything can happen, but that is a huge disparity (since, for some reason, we're already discounting the huge disparities in all other regular season stats, this one probably doesn't matter in the playoffs, and probably doesn't show any difference in mental and physical fortitude between the two teams, despite the fact that one team is better in every metric, has been there plenty of times before, and has only one thing to play for, compared to an exceptional group of rookies who are awesome, but have not yet even encountered disappointment, adversity, or obstacles like NHL playoff hockey).

As an always-nervous Caps fan, these "leading after" stats show me a team who understands that they have to get up early and lock it down. I don't think that's something the Leafs have mastered yet. I am more optimistic looking at these numbers about my team's mental fortitude, which is one of the primary things people are ragging on when they call the Caps "chokers" (other Caps fans in this thread have already dissected why that tag doesn't really apply over the past few seasons, so I won't go into it again).

Being fair to the Leafs, how many of those OTLs came in the early half of the season?

 

[notbias]

Look at Giroux and Crosby number from round 1 and round 2 respectively( last postseason)

I'll take your word for it, I trust you. Now which line in the Pens - Caps series did the most damage against you guys? How'd you lose?