Early Impressions: Marcus Pettersson

[Riptide]

My biggest concern/hesitation would be his minutes so far. The kid has been playing really well... but he's still only averaging 16 minutes a night, 15 (iirc) at ES. The good news is that Maatta only plays a few seconds more at ES then MP does. But overall we need to try to get MP into the 18/19 minute range on a consistent basis if we really want to be able to consider moving Maatta (either this season - which I think is unlikely, or in the summer). Pettersson and to a lesser extent Riikola really need to show over the next month before Schutlz gets back what they can do to give JR the confidence to move Maatta and Oleksiak.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

My biggest concern/hesitation would be his minutes so far. The kid has been playing really well... but he's still only averaging 16 minutes a night, 15 (iirc) at ES. The good news is that Maatta only plays a few seconds more at ES then MP does. But overall we need to try to get MP into the 18/19 minute range on a consistent basis if we really want to be able to consider moving Maatta (either this season - which I think is unlikely, or in the summer). Pettersson and to a lesser extent Riikola really need to show over the next month before Schutlz gets back what they can do to give JR the confidence to move Maatta and Oleksiak.

Let me offer a counter opinion.

He still is fairly young. It is easy to forget how young.

He has a total of 67 games played, 45 of which were this year. Only 22 games last year, and none in the NHL before that.

We have seen kids come up and wear out come the playoffs as they are not used to the grind of that many games in the NHL.

I say that they are handling him just right if they want him to impact the playoffs.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

i'm starting to think maybe we don't relies how bad our defensemen are. when we can bring in a kid that there was no room for on the ducks, and he's better than 3 of the guy's we've got playing.

First off Pettersson was a 22 year old rookie and was never sitting for them. He was a plus player and actually played quite a few minutes for several of those games right before the trade. It was not like they didn’t have room for him. Also different defenseman play better in different systems but like I said he was playing well for a rookie with them also.

Pens defenseman are very good. Our top pairing is one of the top pairings in the league. Maatta-Schultz has been a solid second pairing and both played top 4 minutes on Cup team. Can’t get much more solid than that. To have 3 other defenseman I feel comfortable playing top 4 minutes is a lot of depth. Oleksiak being our 8th best defenseman is great depth because he would be in most teams third pairing. I am very happy with the defenseman depth and goalie depth for this team going into the playoffs. I really think we could survive any 2 defenseman being hurt for playoffs besides Letang and have a better defense than the one that won the 2nd Cup of back to backs.

I think the Pens could win with the lineup they have now. Wouldn’t mind using that extra $5+ million of cap money at deadline to improve either 3C or 2LW but think Brassard and Simon could do the job.

Pettersson has been great and it has nothing to do with our defenseman being bad. Pettersson just fits our system well and is getting more comfortable by the week. At 22 and a rookie she still has several years of development and improving. The great news is he already looks like a top 4 defenseman and is on pace for over 20 points as a rookie and leads all rookies with +15. Can’t help but notice how he turned Johnson’s season around with Johnson being a +9 in his 18 games with Pettersson. It is like adding 2 good defenseman instead of one with that trade because Johnson was a -13 in his first 23 games before that trade.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Let me offer a counter opinion.

He still is fairly young. It is easy to forget how young.

He has a total of 67 games played, 45 of which were this year. Only 22 games last year, and none in the NHL before that.

We have seen kids come up and wear out come the playoffs as they are not used to the grind of that many games in the NHL.

I say that they are handling him just right if they want him to impact the playoffs.

Smart take, I agree don’t want to wear him out too early. Also it has only been 18 games on a new team, new system, and new partner. It is actually pretty amazing how seamlessly he has adapted. I remember defenseman like Gonchar and Martin needed a long time to adjust when they first came to the Pens. I am really high on this kid. He looks better by the week. He has really shown some more offensive upside lately. Could be a 30+ point defenseman while still playing a great defense first game.

 

[MartinS82]

The guy was basically the same player in Anaheim as we've seen in Pitt. It wasn't so much that they didn't have room for him, it's that Larsson and Mahura were both playing well enough to earn ice time. They had a log jam, and so moved out one of their young D to get a high-upside F. I'd say that MP was ahead of Mahura but behind Larsson on their depth chart and that Larsson was only ahead due to the 1st round pedigree, not due to what he showed on the ice. Add in the fact that they have Manson, Montour, Fowler, Lindholm already there as twenty-something defensement, and he was expendable.

On a side note, Petterson was my son's "Blueline Buddy" (where the kids get to go on the ice for the Anthem) last year in Anaheim and was really nice to him (not always the case), so I have actually watched him more closely than I normally would a 6/7 type of D.

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

The guy was basically the same player in Anaheim as we've seen in Pitt. It wasn't so much that they didn't have room for him, it's that Larsson and Mahura were both playing well enough to earn ice time. They had a log jam, and so moved out one of their young D to get a high-upside F. I'd say that MP was ahead of Mahura but behind Larsson on their depth chart and that Larsson was only ahead due to the 1st round pedigree, not due to what he showed on the ice. Add in the fact that they have Manson, Montour, Fowler, Lindholm already there as twenty-something defensement, and he was expendable.

Aren't those just two different ways of saying the same thing?

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

The guy was basically the same player in Anaheim as we've seen in Pitt. It wasn't so much that they didn't have room for him, it's that Larsson and Mahura were both playing well enough to earn ice time. They had a log jam, and so moved out one of their young D to get a high-upside F. I'd say that MP was ahead of Mahura but behind Larsson on their depth chart and that Larsson was only ahead due to the 1st round pedigree, not due to what he showed on the ice. Add in the fact that they have Manson, Montour, Fowler, Lindholm already there as twenty-something defensement, and he was expendable.

On a side note, Petterson was my son's "Blueline Buddy" (where the kids get to go on the ice for the Anthem) last year in Anaheim and was really nice to him (not always the case), so I have actually watched him more closely than I normally would a 6/7 type of D.

Thanks for the insights from how he played for the Ducks. I think Pettersson has such a high hockey IQ which is why he was able to adjust to a new system and line mate so easily. Even Gonchar and Martin took a long while to adjust.

I can’t say how impressive he has been. First he plays a very good defensive game for his first 14 games which was impressive enough and more than we expected. Then the last 4 games he has started using his offensive instincts and is now comfortable joining the rush. Pettersson has 5 points in his last 4 games with at least a point in every game. Starting to wonder if I misjudged this guys offensive potential. Obviously he can’t keep up his pace of last 4 games but could he be a future 40+ point player? His development at 22 is pretty good and the strides he has made just in his first 18 games with the Pens is promising.

 

[MartinS82]

Aren't those just two different ways of saying the same thing?

Subtle difference I guess. "Didn't have room" would mean that he was the odd man out. The "logjam" was behind him, with Larsson and Mahura fighting for ice time as the 6. At least that's how I meant it, if it wasn't clear, I apologize.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Subtle difference I guess. "Didn't have room" would mean that he was the odd man out. The "logjam" was behind him, with Larsson and Mahura fighting for ice time as the 6. At least that's how I meant it, if it wasn't clear, I apologize.

Most likely Pettersson was the one the Pens scouting department wanted for Sprong. The Ducks believed they could replace him without much of a downgrade and get a 21 year old goal scorer they desperately needed.

When you look at the time before the trade Pettersson was playing top 4 minutes and had 4 points in 5 games and +3. I think that was what peeked the Pens interest in that deal. If you scouted these 5 games of a rookie 22 year old defenseman wouldn’t you be all over that?


November 23rd 1 assist 16:59 5th
November 25th 1 assist 20:14 3rd
November 27th 1 assist 18:36 4th
November 28th 1 assist 21:49 3rd
November 30th 0 points 18:22 4th

So while scouting the Ducks before the deal Pettersson played 2nd pairing minutes and put up 4 points and +3 in 5 games. At that point the Pens saw this rookie was playing well with top 4 minutes. Obviously the scouts believed Pettersson could replicate that ability of those 5 games and had confidence he was a legit top end prospect.

Judging off his last 4 games with the Pens Pettersson might have a higher ceiling than we all believed 5 points and a +8. You can’t get more impressive than those numbers.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Aren't those just two different ways of saying the same thing?

no because he was playing. They didn't have room for someone else.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

@MartinS82 is definitely Marty Straka.

 

[cygnus47]

He doesn't have the offense (yet anyway), but he reminds me a lot of Niskanen when he started to turn it around. He's starting to play a solid, direct game and he's making good decisions. He might not be super dynamic but he's effective. Hopefully it continues. As much as I like Sprong's upside and thought he should've been handled completely differently, there's no doubt that this is looking like a great trade.

 

[WayneSid9987]

Since trade:

Pettersson 18 games 6 points +11
Sprong 14 games 6 points -4

Even with Sprong’s goals I think he has not played good enough to be a top 6 forward. 5v5 he has been atrocious and that is when you are on the ice as a top 6 forward. I can’t see him staying in that spot long if his 5v5 play does not pick up. The thing about Sprong is if he is not putting up points he is a liability and right now he is on pace for 34 points over 82 games. Just don’t see that acceptable for a one dimensional player. Someone like Rust could be effective at that pace because of his two way game, PK, forecheck, etc. I still think Sprong has a 50% bust rate.

Pettersson on the other hand looks like a sure fire top 4 defenseman. If he is doing this well as a 22 year old rookie I think it is very likely he becomes a 20+ minute 20+ point defenseman without little projection. In fact his 12 points in first half has him on pace for over 20 in his rookie season. I don’t see how the Pens could lose this deal. I think we found a gem for a bargain. Heard Pettersson leads all rookies with +15. He doesn’t play like a rookie.

Yea it's gonna be interesting when Perry comes back.
I see Rakell is back(last nights highlights) and looked like they played a Rakell-Getz-Sprong 1st line(?) but when Perry's back, Sprong is gonna be in the same position he was here, being an effective 3rd/4th liner or sittin' in the press box cuz they have Kase/Aberg/Sherwood, etc. His point pace so far certainly won't cut it...
I suppose they can simply run Rakell on LW still tho...

 

[Tacitus Kilgore]

As they say, he has a lot of poise. Probably more than Martin Skoula

 

[HandshakeLine]

As they say, he has a lot of poise. Probably more than Martin Skoula

He's no Jeff Toms.

 

[Empoleon8771]

That is his role. It is top-6 or bust. Same as here.

Whether he can PLAY that role...well....they can send him down to San Diego and hope some other team doesn't try a go, lol.

TBTH, it isn't even a guarantee that another team would claim him on waivers to the AHL.

I can't imagine too many teams think he would be in a different spot on their own team.

Zykov being claimed twice on waivers in the last 2 months makes me pretty confident that Sprong wouldn't make it through waivers. I also don't think that using him in a top-6 or bust role is the only way you can develop him, I never bought the idea that Sprong couldn't develop further on a 4th line role. I just think he needed to be getting consistent ice time, which he didn't get for the Penguins.

 

[NMK11]

Knowing that Pettersson was the expendable one for the Ducks makes me very jealous of their blueline.

 

[MartinS82]

@MartinS82 is definitely Marty Straka.

My favorite all time player, yes.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Knowing that Pettersson was the expendable one for the Ducks makes me very jealous of their blueline.

No doubt the Ducks have great players on defense, but was Pettersson really their sixth or seventh best defenseman?

I have glanced at the Ducks board on the trade and some are asking if they should have given him up over some others.

Maybe they did not have a choice. The Pens focused on him and that was their price. I know that I had read his name come up and that the Pens had been interested in him for a while.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Was the Sprong thread locked or something?

 

[EightyOne]

Was the Sprong thread locked or something?

It is the shadow Pettersson will always play in...

 

[Jaded-Fan]

One caveat that I saw pointed out is that Pettersson has been lucky in one sense since arriving in Pittsburgh wish some unsustainable stats.

Timing in life is everything and when he came aboard, the goalie play shifted. He’s benefited from a .970 5v5 save% so far, which isn’t going to last forever. Despite being on ice for 50 high danger scoring chances against, only two have resulted in goals.

Revisiting the Marcus Pettersson for Daniel Sprong trade

Pettersson has only been on the ice for four goals in 15 games since coming to the Pens, and the Pens have had the best record in hockey during that time.

Yes, he has looked great, but the Pens have had magnificent goaltending despite giving up a boatload of high danger shots. You would want those to be cut down significantly while he is on the ice. Again, that is not all on him, but still, that many high danger shots are not going to keep ending up out of the back of the net at a 96% rate.

 

[MartinS82]

I hope Oleksiak can learn something from MP. The way he defends open ice is impressive. If Oleksiak can figure out how to simplify his game and just use his stick more like Petterson does, he might not get caught wandering around the D-zone as much.

Hal Gil had this figured out, but both Petterson and Oleksiak can skate circles around that guy.

 

[DegenX]

Was the Sprong thread locked or something?

It is an unfortunate side effect of the trade. There will be performance comparisons involving Sprong because he's who went the other way in the trade. As long as it's actually relevant and and doesn't devolve it will be allowed. With that said, it is the Pettersson thread and he should be the main topic of discussion, so if folks really feel the need to keep the Sprong talk going someone should start another Sprong thread.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

One caveat that I saw pointed out is that Pettersson has been lucky in one sense since arriving in Pittsburgh wish some unsustainable stats.



Revisiting the Marcus Pettersson for Daniel Sprong trade

Pettersson has only been on the ice for four goals in 15 games since coming to the Pens, and the Pens have had the best record in hockey during that time.

Yes, he has looked great, but the Pens have had magnificent goaltending despite giving up a boatload of high danger shots. You would want those to be cut down significantly while he is on the ice. Again, that is not all on him, but still, that many high danger shots are not going to keep ending up out of the back of the net at a 96% rate.

I read that website daily and saw that but also disagree with much of the premise. Many games Pettersson was on the ice when the Pens has a ton of shots for the game and hardly any for the other team. Also what exactly is the high danger number for and against with him on the ice. The article didn’t post those. They have an agenda on that site about Johnson hatred so they put down what has been a great pairing.

I have focused on that pairing a lot and they have been rock solid and deserve the great numbers they have had together. Of course everyone on the team has had benefit from the goalie play of late. So while no player is going to average this high of + play over 82 games they have played very well as a pairing.

18 games 6 points and +11 Pettersson
18 games 4 points and +9 Johnson playing top 4 minutes and many times top 3 minutes during that time

That has been an effective pairing and they have been very solid play and of course not many players go +41 Johnson or +50 over the course of a whole season. The fact is the goalies couldnof let 5 goals more in those games and they still would have good numbers for those 18 games. Also Pettersson is hitting another level these past 4 games with 5 points and +8.

The bottom line looking at the data for both Pettersson and Sprong it is easy to see who is winning that deal so far. Sprong is doing terrible in every metric and his 2 points 5v5 is really lousy for his line mates he plays with and the ice time he is getting. The bottom line is if Sprong keeps playing at the level he is now he won’t be playing on a top line soon. His point totals are bad for a scoring line player but his underlying measurables are even worse.

At this point it looks like Pettersson is almost assuredly going to be a top 4 defenseman some day. His play for a 22 year old rookie can’t get much better. Also the way he has started joining the play offensively the past 7 games makes me believe he can be a 30+ point defenseman some day. Maybe even this season with the way his play has evolved. It doesn’t take much projection to see him being a top 4 for a long time and maybe better.

Sprong still has 50% bust potential which I said even when he had 3 goals in his first 5 games. Sprong has so many poor parts of his game he just looks like a player with low hockey IQ. Many skilled players have not made it in the NHL due to the mental side of the game. Several more skilled than Sprong.