Early Impressions: Marcus Pettersson

[Turin]

No doubt. I am simply pointing out that keeping 96% of high danger shots out of the net is simply an unsustainable statistic and either will need to be addressed or his numbers will stop looking quite as good as they have defensively.

Obviously the same can be said for the rest of the team, but he is the subject of this thread and if we are going to look at his numbers that thought needs to be part of the discussion.

That’s why I want JJ gone and Pettersson to play with an actually decent player. Johnson has been solid insofar as he’s not getting lit up every night now. That’s a low ass standard. Pens might be fine with him after all, but that will be mostly in thanks to MP.

 

[Ryder71]

Pettersson’s last 5 games have been another level. 5 games 6 points +10. That is impressive for any defenseman let alone a 22 year old rookie. He is a gem!

Good offensive instincts, solid positioning, high hockey IQ, thus far he's been a great pick up.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

As critical as I've been of the circumstances of Pettersson coming here, I've been impressed by his play. He's come as advertised as a Dumoulin-type defenseman.

I agree with most people that it'd be nice to see how he performs with someone other than JJ. I think he'd make a natural partner for Schultz when he comes back.

 

[Empoleon8771]

As critical as I've been of the circumstances of Pettersson coming here, I've been impressed by his play. He's come as advertised as a Dumoulin-type defenseman.

I agree with most people that it'd be nice to see how he performs with someone other than JJ. I think he'd make a natural partner for Schultz when he comes back.

But again, why though? Why fix something that isn't broken? This isn't even about what opinion you have on Johnson, it's why break up a D pair that is working extremely well right now? It's just dumb, it's like saying that they should break up the Guentzel-Crosby-Rust line just to see if Guentzel can spark Malkin.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

That’s why I want JJ gone and Pettersson to play with an actually decent player. Johnson has been solid insofar as he’s not getting lit up every night now. That’s a low ass standard.

I just don’t see this logic. Like I just posted in my last post, how could you expect anything better from Pettersson? Pettersson has looked good his whole time with the Pens and he has 6 points and a +10 in his last 5 games. The guy is not Bobby Orr so I don’t think he is being held back by playing with Johnson. In fact Johnson is the one playing the higher minutes every night.

We have a pairing that has clicked and why mess with what is working? Not just working but excelling far past anyone’s reasonable expectations of either Johnson or Pettersson. Johnson since the pairing has been put together has simplified his game to enable Pettersson to play his two way game. Johnson while playing top 3-4 minutes every night has been a +10 in his 19 games with Pettersson. Pettersson has been +13 while providing some nice offensive production.

The pairing has just had a 5 games stretch which has Pettersson with 6 points and +10 in 5 games and people on these boards want to split them up? Scary logic. Can we at least wait until we see some bad games in a row with them first? This is starting to get a little cringeworthy.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I just don’t see this logic. Like I just posted in my last post, how could you expect anything better from Pettersson? Pettersson has looked good his whole time with the Pens and he has 6 points and a +10 in his last 5 games. The guy is not Bobby Orr so I don’t think he is being held back by playing with Johnson. In fact Johnson is the one playing the higher minutes every night.

We have a pairing that has clicked and why mess with what is working? Not just working but excelling far past anyone’s reasonable expectations of either Johnson or Pettersson. Johnson since the pairing has been put together has simplified his game to enable Pettersson to play his two way game. Johnson while playing top 3-4 minutes every night has been a +10 in his 19 games with Pettersson. Pettersson has been +13 while providing some nice offensive production.

The pairing has just had a 5 games stretch which has Pettersson with 6 points and +10 in 5 games and people on these boards want to split them up? Scary logic. Can we at least wait until we see some bad games in a row with them first? This is starting to get a little cringeworthy.

It's because people decided Johnson sucked before he even played a game here, and his poor start to his Penguins career further reinforced that. It doesn't matter that he looks to have really settled in nicely as a #4/5 since Pettersson came in, he still sucks because people have decided he sucks already.

I want to see an actual justification for splitting up the pair that isn't some BS about how Johnson is a terrible player. You know that they won't be able to provide it, the entire argument is that "Johnson=bad".

 

[LOGiK]

It's because people decided Johnson sucked before he even played a game here, and his poor start to his Penguins career further reinforced that. It doesn't matter that he looks to have really settled in nicely as a #4/5 since Pettersson came in, he still sucks because people have decided he sucks already.

I want to see an actual justification for splitting up the pair that isn't some BS about how Johnson is a terrible player. You know that they won't be able to provide it, the entire argument is that "Johnson=bad".

People are loud and annoying but that doesn't make them right. The only one who really deserves to be shit upon this season is Brassard.... aaaand Sheahan (usually I just rip big bust brass, but Sheahan has be really rough-persistently). The rest is just ups and downs. Slumps and streaks. Wouldn't be much to talk about though without the bitching.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

But again, why though? Why fix something that isn't broken? This isn't even about what opinion you have on Johnson, it's why break up a D pair that is working extremely well right now? It's just dumb, it's like saying that they should break up the Guentzel-Crosby-Rust line just to see if Guentzel can spark Malkin.

Because Pettersson-JJ is mostly notable for turning JJ into something other than a tire fire - not being a great pairing on its own - and Pettersson-Schultz has the potential to be much better. That's quite a bit different from the standard Guentzel-Crosby-Rust is playing at right now.

Either way, it's passable for now. When Schultz is ready, that's the pairing I'd want to see tried.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Because Pettersson-JJ is mostly notable for turning JJ into something other than a tire fire - not being a great pairing on its own - and Pettersson-Schultz has the potential to be much better. That's quite a bit different from the standard Guentzel-Crosby-Rust is playing at right now.

Either way, it's passable for now. When Schultz is ready, that's the pairing I'd want to see tried.

So I had it right, the entire argument is "Johnson=bad", which is just comically false. It's "passable" for right now? If your standard for "passable" is what Pettersson-Johnson has been, your expectations are just stupidly out of wack.

 

[LOGiK]

Because Pettersson-JJ is mostly notable for turning JJ into something other than a tire fire - not being a great pairing on its own - and Pettersson-Schultz has the potential to be much better. That's quite a bit different from the standard Guentzel-Crosby-Rust is playing at right now.

Either way, it's passable for now. When Schultz is ready, that's the pairing I'd want to see tried.

I know its not the injury thread, but I honestly don't see Schultz coming back before late Feb/March... with possible post season readiness only. Then he may not be 100% conditioned for that pace. Did he have plates / screws put into his leg? That look brutal honestly and I could see him potentially out the rest of the season.
EDIT: His legged snapped in half... literally... oh god damn that video of it in slo-mo.

 

[Turin]

No, it’s because JJ’s metrics are still bad and he’s draggimg Pettersson down well below 50% shot share despite MP. Everything points to that pairings success when it comes to preventing goals being partially luck driven.

But yea we all just don’t like JJ just because.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

So I had it right, the entire argument is "Johnson=bad", which is just comically false. It's "passable" for right now? If your standard for "passable" is what Pettersson-Johnson has been, your expectations are just stupidly out of wack.

I guess we disagree.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I know its not the injury thread, but I honestly don't see Schultz coming back before late Feb/March... with possible post season readiness only. Then he may not be 100% conditioned for that pace. Did he have plates / screws put into his leg? That look brutal honestly and I could see him potentially out the rest of the season.
EDIT: His legged snapped in half... literally... oh god damn that video of it in slo-mo.

Could be. But he's already skating in practice.

 

[EightyOne]

Pet-JMFJ is not the WORST.
Doesn't mean its the BEST.

Johnson does suck. But i don't think he deserves to die, either.

There's a middle ground here, right?

 

[Empoleon8771]

I guess we disagree.

I mean, we can disagree all we want, but that pair is at a +9 goal differential since getting put together. You can disagree all you want and only call it "passable", but the stats don't support your opinion at all.

Pet-JMFJ is not the WORST.
Doesn't mean its the BEST.

Johnson does suck. But i don't think he deserves to die, either.

There's a middle ground here, right?

Saying "Johnson does suck" is not a middle ground.

 

[LOGiK]

Could be. But he's already skating in practice.

Yeah that gives me hope. But leg snap like twig at a campfire is not good for professional athlete. He sat around for weeks / months recovering. The skating is positive, but still a long way from being in harms way.

 

[Gurglesons]

I mean, wishing for Petts - JJ to be broken up is silly.

Maatta - Schultz is coming back as soon as Schultz is back and honestly, that was our best pairing last year so I don’t mind it.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I mean, we can disagree all we want, but that pair is at a +9 goal differential since getting put together. You can disagree all you want and only call it "passable", but the stats don't support your opinion at all.

Goal differential is not the only metric to gauge success, as Solzhenitsyn just pointed out.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Goal differential is not the only metric to gauge success, as Solzhenitsyn just pointed out.

Read these stats then. The pair has been absolutely fantastic:

Pettersson-Johnson as a pair:

1. Has a positive CF%Rel
2. Has a significantly positive HDCF%Rel
3. Has a positive SCF%Rel
4. Has a significantly positive GF%Rel
5. Has a significantly positive HDCA/60Rel and SCA/60Rel (so just looking at defensive stats)

But yeah, Johnson is totally dragging Pettersson down! The only thing that Solzhenitsyn posted that was correct was that the pair was at a sub-50% CF%, which is still better than the team average. The pair is excellent defensive based on the eye test and their SCA and HDCA numbers, their good goals against totals are not "based on luck".

 

[Gurglesons]

Read these stats then. The pair has been absolutely fantastic:

Pettersson-Johnson as a pair:

1. Has a positive CF%Rel
2. Has a significantly positive HDCF%Rel
3. Has a positive SCF%Rel
4. Has a significantly positive GF%Rel
5. Has a significantly positive HDCA/60Rel and SCA/60Rel (so just looking at defensive stats)

But yeah, Johnson is totally dragging Pettersson down! The only thing that Solzhenitsyn posted that was correct was that the pair was at a sub-50% CF%, which is still better than the team average. The pair is excellent defensive based on the eye test and their SCA and HDCA numbers, their good goals against totals are not "based on luck".

I don’t know. It certainly seems like Petts is cleaning up a lot for JJ.

I do agree with the idea of why fix what isn’t broken. Wait until the pairing messes up.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

It's because people decided Johnson sucked before he even played a game here, and his poor start to his Penguins career further reinforced that. It doesn't matter that he looks to have really settled in nicely as a #4/5 since Pettersson came in, he still sucks because people have decided he sucks already.

I want to see an actual justification for splitting up the pair that isn't some BS about how Johnson is a terrible player. You know that they won't be able to provide it, the entire argument is that "Johnson=bad".

His poor start was not a surprise. Better defenseman than him took longer to adjust to the Pens system. Gonchar and Martin looked terrible for far longer than 25 games. That happens a lot for new defenseman coming to a team after signing a big contract. Johnson is now playing like his 2016-17 season when he was very effective. This was the Johnson I was hoping for when the signing was made. Keep it simple, clear the crease, sound defensively. Since this pairing has been together both players are doing great.

19 games 4 points +10 with playing top 3-4 minutes nightly for Johnson and 19 games 7 points +13 playing 4-5 minutes nightly for Pettersson. Add to the fact last 5 games for Pettersson he has 6 points and +10 and people want to change it up? Logic on these boards is always laughable. Most likely same people that said we should get rid of Letang last summer because he sucks. How about all the posters that said we should tank for the draft when team started poorly both this season and in our past 3 Cup years. It gets annoying sometimes.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don’t know. It certainly seems like Petts is cleaning up a lot for JJ.

I do agree with the idea of why fix what isn’t broken. Wait until the pairing messes up.

To an extent, but I think this is just the kind of player that JJ is. Johnson is going to make bad defensive plays because that's just the kind of player he is, I think the thing to judge him by is the frequency of those mistakes. They haven't happened that often from the 19 games that pair has been together. Sure, Pettersson has had to clean up for him, but it's on a low frequency when it comes to Johnson.

My main argument was against the idea that the pair has only been "passable", though. That pair has been really damn good, to the point where calling it "passable" just makes you look to have absurdly unrealistic expectations. The pair just complements each other well, which is why I think it's working as well as it is. Johnson brings the physicality and size and Pettersson brings the puck moving and defensive awareness to that pair.

You used the comparison of Ian Cole to describe Johnson's recent play, and I think that's a great comparison for him. I just don't get why people are hell-bent on continuing to say Johnson sucks and insisting on the team breaking up one of the first good bottom-4 pairs the Penguins have had this year.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Im sure theyll make some moves on defense in offseason. If they knew Riikola and (land a guy like ) Pettersson were gonna do this Im sure they wouldnt have signed JJ. Especially for that long

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Read these stats then. The pair has been absolutely fantastic:

Pettersson-Johnson as a pair:

1. Has a positive CF%Rel
2. Has a significantly positive HDCF%Rel
3. Has a positive SCF%Rel
4. Has a significantly positive GF%Rel
5. Has a significantly positive HDCA/60Rel and SCA/60Rel (so just looking at defensive stats)

But yeah, Johnson is totally dragging Pettersson down! The only thing that Solzhenitsyn posted that was correct was that the pair was at a sub-50% CF%, which is still better than the team average. The pair is excellent defensive based on the eye test and their SCA and HDCA numbers, their good goals against totals are not "based on luck".

It's passable because unlike other pairings, JJ-Pettersson has only been together during a stretch when both goalies have been playing out of their minds. I'm generally no fan of Ryan Wilson's takes, but he makes a good point here:

Marcus Pettersson will play in Anaheim for the first time as a visitor. So far his tenure as a Penguin has been fine. I don’t believe we have seen his ceiling as a player because he has been attached at the hip to Jack Johnson. The reason this pairing is “working” is because Pettersson’s on-ice save percentage since coming to Pittsburgh is 97.4%. Drop that to 91.5% and I’m not sure the Pettersson-Johnson pairing would be perceived as working.

Pettersson has played 231 minutes with Johnson and has a CF% of 47.49. In his time away from Johnson (ANA included) it is 52.94 according to Natural Stat Trick.

But YMMV. I'm not particularly interested in having a drawn-out conversation about it while Schultz is on the shelf because it's doing the job for now. I'll happily revisit it when Schultz is available.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's passable because unlike other pairings, JJ-Pettersson has only been together during a stretch when both goalies have been playing out of their minds. I'm generally no fan of Ryan Wilson's takes, but he makes a good point here:



But YMMV. I'm not particularly interested in having a drawn-out conversation about it while Schultz is on the shelf because it's doing the job for now. I'll happily revisit it when Schultz is available.

No, that really isn't a good point by Wilson. He's looking at 1 advanced stats and drawing a conclusion based on that stat alone. To make it worse, he's not even looking at it relative to the rest of the team.

Wilson is just another advanced stat stooge that hates Johnson, so I'm not surprised that he'd cling to anything he can find to say to take a shot at him. If your argument is "if they would be getting scored on more, they wouldn't be good", you don't have an actual argument against that pair. I posted the numbers that say that the pair has been absolutely excellent. You can call it "passable" all you want, but it's not based on anything whatsoever.