Player Discussion: dylan samberg

[TS Quint]

Of course points aren't everything and no, I'm not necessarily going to automatically take players strictly by that measure. But points are a broad overall measure.

He didn't always play with good players. Far from it. I don't know that "so many players were worse with him than without". I can't read those those charts of yours.

He is not garbage.

The red numbers are players without RNH. If the red is up and to the right they were better without him. At best you can say hes inconsistent. Without high end players hes been a 40 point player with some of the best players on the planet hes a 70 point player. I see him as a 2nd/3rd line tweener. A 2c on a bad team a 3c on a good team. I don't think Little is much worse than him. Maybe garbage is too strong. Maybe averageish is a better word. Probably just not a big upgrade from what we have and not worth the money.

 

[ps241]

In addition, there wasn't much hype for late rounders Poolman and Niku at the time they signed their ELCs. In fact, there has never been much hype for Poolman to be more than a bottom pairing guy.

I agree I missed the hype train for Poolman for sure? Niku hype train picked up allot of steam after he won the AHL D man of the year and he has fallen short of my hype to date. Petan is another guy who we debated to death on these forms and he pancaked.......before that probably exiled Burmi got allot of love and totally tanked.

 

[Whileee]

Today in an online chat Pronman wrote that he would rate Samberg above Heinola in terms of ceiling potential, for what it's worth.

 

[ps241]

Today in an online chat Pronman wrote that he would rate Samberg above Heinola in terms of ceiling potential, for what it's worth.

That is high praise for Samberg or limited expectations for Heinloa I guess . Seems Like Corey has changed his tune in Samberg which is nice.

 

[Whileee]

That is high praise for Samberg or limited expectations for Heinloa I guess . Seems Like Corey has changed his tune in Samberg which is nice.

Yes, I've noticed that Pronman has been much more positive about Samberg this year. It's probably partly due to more viewings, but my guess is that he's been hearing a lot of NHL scouts tell him how good they think Samberg is and will be.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The red numbers are players without RNH. If the red is up and to the right they were better without him. At best you can say hes inconsistent. Without high end players hes been a 40 point player with some of the best players on the planet hes a 70 point player. I see him as a 2nd/3rd line tweener. A 2c on a bad team a 3c on a good team. I don't think Little is much worse than him. Maybe garbage is too strong. Maybe averageish is a better word. Probably just not a big upgrade from what we have and not worth the money.

You can look at most of the best players in the league and say that they would be less than they are if played with bad players. The thing is that the better players tend to be played together. It is a fact that he has averaged 60 pts per 82 games so far in his career. Edmonton has been a shit show during most of his time there. He has usually been one of the bright spots in their lineup, or at least less bad.

He may have been inconsistent, or his usage linemates and coaching may have been all over the map.

I think he would be a substantial upgrade on what we have. I'm not sure he would be worth what he would cost in trade. I'm pretty certain his contract would be too much. It would pick up from the contract he is on which was too high from the moment he got it.

Just looked at as a 1st OA, he is a disappointment. But I think he could be a pretty good (not great) 2C for us.

 

[Gil Fisher]

deleted

 

[sipowicz]

In addition, there wasn't much hype for late rounders Poolman and Niku at the time they signed their ELCs. In fact, there has never been much hype for Poolman to be more than a bottom pairing guy.

Poolman hasn't really stood out above any of the Jets waiver wire pickups!

 

[ps241]

Yes, I've noticed that Pronman has been much more positive about Samberg this year. It's probably partly due to more viewings, but my guess is that he's been hearing a lot of NHL scouts tell him how good they think Samberg is and will be.

Also helps that Samberg has come along way since he was drafted and Corey has been able to watch the growth and re-calibrate........I am sure doing the postmortems and breaking down hits and misses (couch couch Pionk for ps) should be part of everyone's best practices, amateur or professional prognosticators.

 

[TS Quint]

You can look at most of the best players in the league and say that they would be less than they are if played with bad players. The thing is that the better players tend to be played together. It is a fact that he has averaged 60 pts per 82 games so far in his career. Edmonton has been a shit show during most of his time there. He has usually been one of the bright spots in their lineup, or at least less bad.

He may have been inconsistent, or his usage linemates and coaching may have been all over the map.

I think he would be a substantial upgrade on what we have. I'm not sure he would be worth what he would cost in trade. I'm pretty certain his contract would be too much. It would pick up from the contract he is on which was too high from the moment he got it.

Just looked at as a 1st OA, he is a disappointment. But I think he could be a pretty good (not great) 2C for us.

It's a funny "average" you use when he has only been above his "average" twice in 9 years and it took playing with one or two of the best players on the planet to get there. Pretty safe to assume he wouldn't reach his " average" in Winnipeg.

 

[10Ducky10]

It's a funny "average" you use when he has only been above his "average" twice in 9 years and it took playing with one or two of the best players on the planet to get there. Pretty safe to assume he wouldn't reach his " average" in Winnipeg.

You don't think he would get 60 points playing with two of Wheeler, Laine, KC or Ehlers as his wingers??? REally?

 

[Adam da bomb]

You don't think he would get 60 points playing with two of Wheeler, Laine, KC or Ehlers as his wingers??? REally?

Is that impressive scoring 60 points with those wingers? I’m pretty sure Roslovic or Copp could put up 60 points with Ehlers and Laine. Just make the first pass out of their zone and let Ehlers go coast to coast or make an ordinary pass to Laine and watch him one time it into the back of the net. Then all they have to do is go to net and knock in any rebounds.

 

[Whileee]

You don't think he would get 60 points playing with two of Wheeler, Laine, KC or Ehlers as his wingers??? REally?

RNH has the same points per 60 minutes as Little at 5v5 over the past 5 seasons.

 

[10Ducky10]

Is that impressive scoring 60 points with those wingers? I’m pretty sure Roslovic or Copp could put up 60 points with Ehlers and Laine. Just make the first pass out of their zone and let Ehlers go coast to coast or make an ordinary pass to Laine and watch him one time it into the back of the net. Then all they have to do is go to net and knock in any rebounds.

Ehlers needs to use his linemates better.
No I don't think Copper or Rosslo get 60 as the 2C.

 

[10Ducky10]

RNH has the same points per 60 minutes as Little at 5v5 over the past 5 seasons.

I have no prroblem with Little as our 2C to be honest. I'm one of his biggest supporters. He was in for a career year this past season before his injury.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Ehlers needs to use his linemates better.
No I don't think Copper or Rosslo get 60 as the 2C.

I think Roslo could with those wingers. They’d just get scored in a lot.

 

[Fairview]

I have no prroblem with Little as our 2C to be honest. I'm one of his biggest supporters. He was in for a career year this past season before his injury.

When and how was he in for a career year? He was injured in the preseason. He missed the start of the regular season. He then played a few more games before getting hit by the puck. I don’t think there was enough games played, to make any type of prediction.

 

[10Ducky10]

I think Roslo could with those wingers.

I sure hope he does.
I want the best for Roslo and not on another team. He has to show more consistency.
We aren't that far away from having 3 really good scoring lines and a great 4th/shutdown line.
Our D was starting too look better after chevy made some moves as well.
It pisses me off that we had a chance to get to the post season with Helle having a Vezina year. I knoknow there are lots of thiings more imtant but I feel sorry for the guy. He gave us a chance almost every night he played thisis season. What morre can you ask?
I bet he sure can't wait to see Slamberg playing in front of him...

 

[sipowicz]

I’m setting the bar low for Samberg, doubt he cracks the Moose 20-21 opening day roster, both a Poolman and Niku should

 

[TS Quint]

You don't think he would get 60 points playing with two of Wheeler, Laine, KC or Ehlers as his wingers??? REally?

I don't think you're crazy so I think we can agree RNH goes on PP2, dropping his PP time from well over 3 min to just over 1 min and the 3rd best player on his line 5 on 5. I'd put him at 50-55 points if all things went well.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's a funny "average" you use when he has only been above his "average" twice in 9 years and it took playing with one or two of the best players on the planet to get there. Pretty safe to assume he wouldn't reach his " average" in Winnipeg.

Nothing funny about that avg at all. It is just points/game times 82. He exceeded that in his rookie year. Who were the best players on the planet he was playing with then? He missed it in his 2nd year, the lockout year. He just barely missed it in his 3rd year. He hit it right on in his 4th year. Missed it again in years 5 & 6. Exceeded it by quite a bit in years 7 & 8, when he got those outstanding linemates. So, I guess players who perform well with outstanding linemates are no good. That's why they get the outstanding linemates. He would have crap linemates in Winnipeg.

 

[ps241]

I’m setting the bar low for Samberg, doubt he cracks the Moose 20-21 opening day roster, both a Poolman and Niku should

Ok this gave me a laugh.

Zinger: Dylan I have some good news and I have some bad news.

Samberg: give me the bad news first

zinger: we think you still need to develop more in the minors

Samberg: ( thinking to himself....dam I knew I should have stayed in school),,,, what’s the good news?

zinger: You are going to love Jacksonville in the Winter. Seriously kid if I had to do it all over again I would have moved to Phoenix in 1997.....what the hell was I thinking......I can’t believe I listened to my nagging wife bitching about how she needed to live by her mom with the 4 kids and me on the road........I have been stuck in these shitty winters for 25 years FFS........ I could have been a GM by now.......hell with my height I could be commissioner of the NHL! I could have been king of the f***ing world......blah blah blah........


(camera slowly fades to black with Zinger still sitting on stunned Dylan's knee monologging about how he has been robbed.

 

[TS Quint]

You can look at most of the best players in the league and say that they would be less than they are if played with bad players. The thing is that the better players tend to be played together. It is a fact that he has averaged 60 pts per 82 games so far in his career. Edmonton has been a shit show during most of his time there. He has usually been one of the bright spots in their lineup, or at least less bad.

He may have been inconsistent, or his usage linemates and coaching may have been all over the map.

I think he would be a substantial upgrade on what we have. I'm not sure he would be worth what he would cost in trade. I'm pretty certain his contract would be too much. It would pick up from the contract he is on which was too high from the moment he got it.

Just looked at as a 1st OA, he is a disappointment. But I think he could be a pretty good (not great) 2C for us.

You're going to have to explain some things here Mort. You say you don't think top line points are everything but it's all you have talked about completely ignoring P/60, his most likely reduced 5 on 5 TOI he would have on the Jets 2nd line, his reduced PP TOI on PP2, his history of effect on line mates, his reduced importance on a line that include in my opinion 2 better players than himself and, not playing with Leon or McDavid (see players like Maroon or Chiasson point production away from those players).

Some how through all of that you expect him to be better than what you call his average point production of over 60 points but call that type of production "not great" as a 2C. If he can reach that "not great" production what does a 60+ point 2C player cost in a trade? Can you show me a similar trade? What does that type of 2C cost the Jets in a contract after next year? Is he really better than Huberdeau or Couturier like you say?

Thats a lot to unpack.

 

[Tasteless Beaver]

I’m setting the bar low for Samberg, doubt he cracks the Moose 20-21 opening day roster, both a Poolman and Niku should

If a 2nd rounder from 2017 can't even show signs that he's AHL-ready, you don't sign him to his ELC. You release him. The only way he doesn't start for the Moose is if 1) the virus takes out the next hockey season, or 2) he has a fantastic training camp and they let him stay up.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You're going to have to explain some things here Mort. You say you don't think top line points are everything but it's all you have talked about completely ignoring P/60, his most likely reduced 5 on 5 TOI he would have on the Jets 2nd line, his reduced PP TOI on PP2, his history of effect on line mates, his reduced importance on a line that include in my opinion 2 better players than himself and, not playing with Leon or McDavid (see players like Maroon or Chiasson point production away from those players).

Some how through all of that you expect him to be better than what you call his average point production of over 60 points but call that type of production "not great" as a 2C. If he can reach that "not great" production what does a 60+ point 2C player cost in a trade? Can you show me a similar trade? What does that type of 2C cost the Jets in a contract after next year? Is he really better than Huberdeau or Couturier like you say?

Thats a lot to unpack.

Yes that is a lot. I'm making no attempt at going into it in that depth. Points aren't everything but they are the single most important thing.

Everything you have said about him seems to assume that he has always played on the top line in Edmonton. That just isn't so. He has spent a lot of time on the 2nd and 3rd lines. He has not always played with either Leon or McDavid. They were not even with the Oilers for much of his career. He played with one or the other for much of the last 2 years - and he was very productive. No surprise, he should be with those linemates.

No, I don't think I said I expected more than his avg production. A 60 pt 2C would be a nice improvement over what we have had and have now. 60 pts is good for a 2C. It is not great. The great 2C's score ppg or better.

No, I don't think I ever said he was better than Huberdeau or Couturier either. In fact I know for certain I never said that. He has scored 6 more pts than Huberdeau, in 68 more games. That doesn't look like better. He has scored 41 more pts than Couturier in 43 fewer games. That looks good but Couturier was used in a defensive role until the last 3 years. He has scored very well in a more offensive role and is outstanding defensively so I wouldn't say that RNH is better than him either.

A 60 pt 2C costs a lot. Kesler cost Bonino, Sbisa and a 1st. Johansen cost Seth Jones. Its tough to say what RNH might cost on his next contract without knowing what NHL finances are going to look like. But going by current standards, I would guess it would be at least 7 mil, maybe 7.5. And it could be more if he went to market. I think his ask will be inflated because he has been overpaid for several years and will want a raise. None of which has anything to do with him being a bad player. He is not garbage, he is not bad. He is a disappointing 1st OA and was given too high a 2nd contract, apparently just because that is what Oilers automatically gave their 1st rd picks. At least until Yak.

With a 1st OA pick you are expecting an above avg 1C. He never achieved that. He is an avg to slightly above avg 2C. Which is better than we have had.