Value of: Dylan Larkin Contract

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I am betting its an 8 year at $7 mil per. Michigan native will want to sign long term there... and isnt work the 7 mil a year right now, but the way contracts are going... its on par with talent and potential with going rates

Still to high, Larkin either gets 6 years @ $6 mil per or 6 years @ $6.25 mil per more or less.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

He will get an 8 year deal, you're right. But it will be 4 or 5 years from now, after this upcoming bridge contract expires.

Larkin will be getting around 5 x 6 or 6 x 6 just curious how those are considered bridge contracts.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

I think Larkin has a lot higher offensive ceiling than Bo. Bo to me maxes out at upper 50 a low 60 points per season in his ideal situation. Larkin can put up well over 70 imo.

Does he go 6 or 8 years?

I think you're selling Horvat short. I like Larkin more, but I think they're much closer as comparibles than Drai/Larkin is.

 

[QuietContrarian]

After reading this, boy does Chevy deserve credit for the contracts he gets done.

Chef and Ehlers contracts are golden!

Some of the numbers thrown around here are insane tbh. I don't think Larkin is worth anything north of 6x6.5

Showing a list of other overpaid C's does not convince me otherwise.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

After reading this, boy does Chevy deserve credit for the contracts he gets done.

Chef and Ehlers contracts are golden!

Some of the numbers thrown around here are insane tbh. I don't think Larkin is worth anything north of 6x6.5

Showing a list of other overpaid C's does not convince me otherwise.

The people throwing those numbers out haven't been paying attention to the multiple reports saying they're likely working toward 6 x 6.

 

[NotOpie]

Dylan Larkin - one 20 goal season (3 years ago) and one 60 point season. There is still a bit left to prove to earn the numbers being thrown around here.

 

[The GM]

You're both shooting way too low. Larkin's getting an 8 year max deal book it.

Likely with the standard Detroit NMC as well

 

[ThankGord]

"The Red Wings, a source said, have been pushing for five years. Larkin and his representatives are seeking six years. Chances are it'll be in the $6 million-a-year range."

From a Wings insider.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Dylan Larkin - one 20 goal season (3 years ago) and one 60 point season. There is still a bit left to prove to earn the numbers being thrown around here.

6 x 6 is the standard for these guys anymore.

 

[NotOpie]

6 x 6 is the standard for these guys anymore.

Perhaps....I think the Zucker contract is a pretty fair comparable....there's differences there that go in both guys favor (Larkin being younger and a center and Zucker having more consistent goal scoring). Not that I don't think $6 million is totally out of the realm. I'd have to think they are trying to keep it under that figure.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Maybe I’m missing something here, but why would the Red Wings management want a contract that takes Larkin to a UFA at 27 years old? Chance are he’d re-sign before his contract expires, but if he walks it would be devastating to a team that is likely on the upswing.

If I was the GM I’d bridge him for 2-3 years around 5.000AAV. Gives the management a couple more years to see if he’s a 1C or 2C moving forward, by the time his contract is up a lot of the bad contracts will have expired and they can sign him to a longer term contract taking him to his 30’s.

Just my take. Should be interesting to see what he ends up with none the less.

 

[LarKing]

Maybe I’m missing something here, but why would the Red Wings management want a contract that takes Larkin to a UFA at 27 years old? Chance are he’d re-sign before his contract expires, but if he walks it would be devastating to a team that is likely on the upswing.

If I was the GM I’d bridge him for 2-3 years around 5.000AAV. Gives the management a couple more years to see if he’s a 1C or 2C moving forward, by the time his contract is up a lot of the bad contracts will have expired and they can sign him to a longer term contract taking him to his 30’s.

Just my take. Should be interesting to see what he ends up with none the less.

I'd rather sign him for 8 now at 6-6.5M. If sign a bridge deal and he goes ppg the next few years suddenly we're looking at like 9 million instead of 6-7 million. Eats up a lot of those UFA years too.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Perhaps....I think the Zucker contract is a pretty fair comparable....there's differences there that go in both guys favor (Larkin being younger and a center and Zucker having more consistent goal scoring). Not that I don't think $6 million is totally out of the realm. I'd have to think they are trying to keep it under that figure.

I'd hesitate to compare the two due to age. They both had very similar seasons, but 60+ points as a 21 year old is a lot different than 60+ points as a 26 year old. You don't expect the 26 year old to develop much more, if at all.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

I'd rather sign him for 8 now at 6-6.5M. If sign a bridge deal and he goes ppg the next few years suddenly we're looking at like 9 million instead of 6-7 million. Eats up a lot of those UFA years too.

Even that would be better. Takes him to 29 eats a couple years of UFA.

 

[NotOpie]

I'd hesitate to compare the two due to age. They both had very similar seasons, but 60+ points as a 21 year old is a lot different than 60+ points as a 26 year old. You don't expect the 26 year old to develop much more, if at all.

Which is why maybe Larkin gets a bit more, but you pay for performance more than for potential.

Regarding the bridge ideas, it take 2 to tango. And at the end of any series of bridges, Larkin's a UFA at 25.

 

[Brockon]

i dont know what he'll sign for, but if those reports were valid would he not be signed already?

seems to me that either he wants more term or dollars than those reports or they wouldnt STILL BE NEGOTIATING, that much is self evident

for all anybody knows he could sign for less, in which case the reports are still wrong. Reports mean next to nothing while negotiations are ongoing. 9 times out of 10 its just a reporter speculating

Because signing bonuses and salary have nothing to do with contracts, right? There's a lot more to negotiating a contract than establishing a AAV.

What self respecting agent would attempt to work in some form of lock out protection into a client's contract that a corporation might be dragging their heels about approving?

There's more to contracts than money and term - there's when the money is paid, how the money is paid that play into negotiations. Any money paid in bonuses circumvents the player contract escrow fund - meaning its garanteed, as opposed to being dolled out at the end of the season based on league growth and revenues potentially being held back if projections aren't reached.

 

[72hockey guy]

Because signing bonuses and salary have nothing to do with contracts, right? There's a lot more to negotiating a contract than establishing a AAV.

What self respecting agent would attempt to work in some form of lock out protection into a client's contract that a corporation might be dragging their heels about approving?

There's more to contracts than money and term - there's when the money is paid, how the money is paid that play into negotiations. Any money paid in bonuses circumvents the player contract escrow fund - meaning its garanteed, as opposed to being dolled out at the end of the season based on league growth and revenues potentially being held back if projections aren't reached.

you miss the point of my post

it flew right over your head

the point being that reporters speculate you nor i nor anyone but the team and player know what has been offered, salary structure and bonuses are usually minor matters once term and total value have been determined

 

[ricky0034]

I feel like this explains pretty well what's going on here and why the talk is around 5-6 years instead of higher or lower:

Detroit Red Wings' Salary Cap Mess & How Dylan Larkin Fits

speculation based on that:

both sides want a long term deal,Wings looking to avoid having to trade anyone

Larkin wants 6 years and a contract value right up against that $6.2 limit

Wings want 5 years so it can be a tad lower so they aren't right up against the cap

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I think Larkin eventually signs for 6 years $36 million, Possibly 6 years $39 million if Zetterberg calls it quits and LTIR's his last 3 years or so. I think Holland is waiting on the Zetterberg situation to clear up. Before proceeding with Larkin's contract.

 

[LarKing]

Holland should’ve waited to sign a guy like Vanek before signing Larkin. It’ll end up alright but I doubt he’s super happy about being limited by the cap the team has left.

 

[Henkka]

Holland should’ve waited to sign a guy like Vanek before signing Larkin. It’ll end up alright but I doubt he’s super happy about being limited by the cap the team has left.

These are non-factors in real life. Just overspeculation.

If Vanek signing would create any kind of problem, Holland wouldn't just do it. He signed Vanek because, before free agency he knew all the alternatives how this Larkin case will solve out.

RFA caphits are easiest to predict, because there seems to be certain formulas on them and not a free market like for UFAs. And GMs will know the ballparks already after the last season in April. Playoff teams little bit later. Players can't do anything on the summer to change their value.

It's just this timetable, that free agency mostly happens before some RFA signings. If RFA signings would always happen before free agency, we would see exactly same caphits for UFAs and RFAs and nobody would wonder anything.

Same is happening every summer. People wonder. GMs won't, they go on holiday because the basework is already done.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I think Larkin eventually signs for 6 years $36 million, Possibly 6 years $39 million if Zetterberg calls it quits and LTIR's his last 3 years or so. I think Holland is waiting on the Zetterberg situation to clear up. Before proceeding with Larkin's contract.

Waiting on Zetterberg would be dumb on Holland's end. If Z calls it quits, Larkin suddenly has more bargaining power.