Value of: Dylan Larkin Contract

[Hockeyholic]

Any guesses on what he will get? My guess is 8 years X 8.5 million annually.

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[WingsMJN2965]

Any guesses on what he will get? My guess is 8 years X 8.5 million annually.

Jesus Christ...

5-6 years. $6M. Give or take $250K.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You're both shooting way too low. Larkin's getting an 8 year max deal book it.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

5 × $6M tops.

I'd love it to be 6 years, but with the extra UFA year eaten up, I don't think the cap hit will be as easily massage-able. With 5, I think a $5.7-8 cap is doable.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

6x6.5

 

[xNogaitx]

5-6 years to take him into free agency at 27-28 years old is unlikely, teams that can lock up their stars' prime years usually do so.

Either he signs a 2-year bridge deal, or he gets an 8-year deal. (Bridge for these guys tend to hurt in the long-term.)

A good comparison for him is Draisaitl (same draft year, same position) whose numbers are slightly inflated by playing next to McDavid.
Now I'm not saying that Larkin = Draisaitl, I'm saying that Larkin is at least 80-90% of what Draisaitl is.
Since Larkin is the wings' defacto #1C, he also has more leverage than Draisaitl did at the time.

Draisaitl's deal was 11.33% of the cap over 8 years (8.5M AAV).

So a little bit of math you get $79,500,000 (Current cap) x 11.33% x 90% = $8.106M AAV

My guess is 8 x 8M.

 

[Hockeyholic]

Jesus Christ...

5-6 years. $6M. Give or take $250K.

The GM hands out large contracts like candy. Larkin gets 8 million per if he wants it

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

5-6 years to take him into free agency at 27-28 years old is unlikely, teams that can look up their stars' prime years usually do so.

Either he signs a 2-year bridge deal, or he gets an 8-year deal. (Bridge for these guys tend to hurt in the long-term.)

A good comparison for him is Draisaitl (same draft year, same position) whose numbers are slightly inflated by playing next to McDavid.
Now I'm not saying that Larkin = Draisaitl, I'm saying that Larkin is at least 80-90% of what Draisaitl is.
Since Larkin is the wings' defacto #1C, he also has more leverage than Draisaitl did at the time.

Draisaitl's deal was 11.33% of the cap over 8 years (8.5M AAV).

So a little bit of math you get $79,500,000 (Current cap) x 11.33% x 90% = $8.106M AAV

My guess is 8 x 8M.

Bo Horvat is much better comparable to Larkin than Drai is.

 

[DarthProbert]

2 year bridge between 4.5 and 5.5.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

The GM hands out large contracts like candy. Larkin gets 8 million per if he wants it

Holland is pretty awful at negotiating UFA deals...

... He's also pretty damn good at negotiating RFA deals.

 

[TML1967]

8 years 6.75 million

 

[The Red Line]

You're both shooting way too low. Larkin's getting an 8 year max deal book it.

He will get an 8 year deal, you're right. But it will be 4 or 5 years from now, after this upcoming bridge contract expires.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

He will get an 8 year deal, you're right. But it will be 4 or 5 years from now, after this upcoming bridge contract expires.

Somehow you both managed to be wrong.

 

[Ezekial]

5-6 years 6 million
7 years 6.25 million
8 years 6.35 million

 

[WingsMJN2965]

5-6 years 6 million
7 years 6.25 million
8 years 6.35 million

I'd take that 8 year in a heartbeat.

 

[The Red Line]

Somehow you both managed to be wrong.

How can I be wrong about something that hasn't happened yet? Also which part am I so wrong about? I think he gets 5 years, something you yourself also posted in this very thread....

 

[WingsMJN2965]

How can I be wrong about something that hasn't happened yet? Also which part am I so wrong about? I think he gets 5 years, something you yourself also posted in this very thread....

Oh...

You consider a five year contract a bridge?

 

[mouser]

5-6 years 6 million
7 years 6.25 million
8 years 6.35 million

2-3 years $4.5-$5.5m
4-6 years $5.0-$7.0m
7-8 years $6.5-$7.5m

 

[Oddbob]

Larkin is getting nothing close to 8X8. I would expect 5-8 years at anywhere between 5.5 and 6.5 per.

 

[djeck42]

I am betting its an 8 year at $7 mil per. Michigan native will want to sign long term there... and isnt work the 7 mil a year right now, but the way contracts are going... its on par with talent and potential with going rates

 

[WingsMJN2965]

It's almost like everybody ignored Khan and Custance's reports that they're discussing $6M per over 5 - 6 years...

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

He will get an 8 year deal, you're right. But it will be 4 or 5 years from now, after this upcoming bridge contract expires.

Somehow you both managed to be wrong.

 

[72hockey guy]

It's almost like everybody ignored Khan and Custance's reports that they're discussing $6M per over 5 - 6 years...

i dont know what he'll sign for, but if those reports were valid would he not be signed already?

seems to me that either he wants more term or dollars than those reports or they wouldnt STILL BE NEGOTIATING, that much is self evident

for all anybody knows he could sign for less, in which case the reports are still wrong. Reports mean next to nothing while negotiations are ongoing. 9 times out of 10 its just a reporter speculating

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Any guesses on what he will get? My guess is 8 years X 8.5 million annually.

Why, oh why, would he get 8x8.5?

He's still an RFA so comparables matter. He's not getting more on a long term deal than Nikolaj Ehlers or Mark Schiefele got. Both of them had superior seasons compared to him before the contract came up. Potential captain is a nice feather in Larkin's cap, but he's not captain yet... and even so, that's a 250-350k bump from 6.25 to 6.5 or something, not several million.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

i dont know what he'll sign for, but if those reports were valid would he not be signed already?

seems to me that either he wants more term or dollars than those reports or they wouldnt STILL BE NEGOTIATING, that much is self evident

for all anybody knows he could sign for less, in which case the reports are still wrong. Reports mean next to nothing while negotiations are ongoing. 9 times out of 10 its just a reporter speculating

They're still negotiating because it's July 25th. There is no rush to get pen to paper and if he can wait 3 weeks and get 6x6.25 instead of 6x6 when there is no actual pressure on either side to make a deal, why would he give up another 1.5M? Also, he's letting his agent do most, if not all, of the negotiating. Saying "I want to be here, but I want you to look out for me too".