Confirmed with Link: Duclair/Clendening to Chicago for Panik/Dauphin

[Jamieh]

You are comparing theses players playing 400 min. this year. Players have good and bad years, so what happens if you compare last year to this year with these same players?

#doesntfitnarrative

 

[Jakey53]

Great example of why not to rely on fancy stats to draw conclusions on individual players.

The problem is that XX used GAR only which does not show the whole picture, but it's a start. It's like fans using the eye test when ranking a player, or the eye test and stats. If advanced stats were not helpful, NHL teams would not use them.

 

[Fyreman]

Meh, he's been in the league 6 years and played for 5 different teams, anyone see a pattern? Locker room cancer??

 

[Jamieh]

The problem is that XX used GAR only which does not show the whole picture, but it's a start. It's like fans using the eye test when ranking a player, or the eye test and stats. If advanced stats were not helpful, NHL teams would not use them.

Just as a silly example let's say the Coyote's win their next 2 games 8-0 for both and Phil scores 4 times in each game. Is his season all of sudden better as his analytics look fairly good? You can't build an NHL team via Moneyball because the stats can only tell you so much, it works much better in baseball as it's a 1v1 sport where the actions of others don't effect you nearly as much.

 

[rt]

Craig Morgan mentioned recently in a tweet or an article that NHL teams don’t use the same advanced stats available to fans. They mostly have proprietary versions and they tend to be pretty dismissive of the ones available to fans. I believe Morgan stated that WAR and GAR are particularly scoffed at by Chayka and Co.

It’s probably just nerds splitting hairs and it’s basically the same stuff. But I thought it was interesting.

 

[hbk]

Meh, he's been in the league 6 years and played for 5 different teams, anyone see a pattern? Locker room cancer??

It’s a cost benefit thing. Duclair didn’t provide enough offense to justify his defensive lapses until this year. This year everything he touches goes into the net. Good for him. I just wouldn’t be rushing out to sign him to an 8 year deal just yet.

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

Craig Morgan mentioned recently in a tweet or an article that NHL teams don’t use the same advanced stats available to fans. They mostly have proprietary versions and they tend to be pretty dismissive of the ones available to fans. I believe Morgan stated that WAR and GAR are particularly scoffed at by Chayka and Co.

It’s probably just nerds splitting hairs and it’s basically the same stuff. But I thought it was interesting.

Yeah Fans just create stats that can be compiled from easily fetched data points. The real important numbers are gonna be the ones that need to be compiled by hand and thus out of reach for almost everyone.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

We knew from his first days that he was offensively gifted...but as hbk indicated, he didn't play defense and really didn't want to adhere to the structure put in place by the coaching staff...I watched the game the other night and when it got to OT, he was out there and it wasn't like he was at the end of his shift or quite frankly the middle of his shift, but he absolutely provided 'zero' effort in covering his man who got off a pt blank shot which led to the rebound winner.

This is why he's bounced around to many different teams. He's gifted, no doubt, but in todays game you have to play a little defense, or at least look the appearance of "trying" to play defense.

 

[cobra427]

The problem is that XX used GAR only which does not show the whole picture, but it's a start. It's like fans using the eye test when ranking a player, or the eye test and stats. If advanced stats were not helpful, NHL teams would not use them.

I am not saying they aren't helpful, but they can be misleading as in this case.

 

[Tom Polakis]

Craig Morgan mentioned recently in a tweet or an article that NHL teams don’t use the same advanced stats available to fans. They mostly have proprietary versions and they tend to be pretty dismissive of the ones available to fans. I believe Morgan stated that WAR and GAR are particularly scoffed at by Chayka and Co.

It’s probably just nerds splitting hairs and it’s basically the same stuff. But I thought it was interesting.

Many on these boards argue that "real" GMs and coaches don't bother with fancy stats. I can't imagine how upset they'd get if they learn that no, they actually use even fancier stats than fans have access to.

 

[XX]

Many on these boards argue that "real" GMs and coaches don't bother with fancy stats. I can't imagine how upset they'd get if they learn that no, they actually use even fancier stats than fans have access to.

They have more granular data (money can buy you that) but you can still infer the same trends from what is publicly available. No amount fake concern about accuracy would bridge the gap between someone like Stepan and someone actually performing, for instance. People are very transparent in dipping into fancy stats when it supports their eye test/personal narrative but suddenly are skeptics when they clash.

 

[Jakey53]

Just as a silly example let's say the Coyote's win their next 2 games 8-0 for both and Phil scores 4 times in each game. Is his season all of sudden better as his analytics look fairly good? You can't build an NHL team via Moneyball because the stats can only tell you so much, it works much better in baseball as it's a 1v1 sport where the actions of others don't effect you nearly as much.

Same goes for the eye test and points for those same two games. You have no idea if advanced stats work better in baseball than hockey, it's only your assumption. Like I told Cobra, if they didn't work they wouldn't be used.

 

[Jakey53]

I am not saying they aren't helpful, but they can be misleading as in this case.

So can the eye test. If you pick and choose both analytics, and the eye test, both can be made to look good or bad. GM's use as much data as they can get, some use certain stats more than others, put more emphasis on some than others. Analytics are here to stay and will get more popular as technology gets better.

 

[Sinurgy]

Stats, advanced or not, are but one piece of the puzzle. The are a valuable piece within context but no one would rely on them exclusively.

 

[Jamieh]

Same goes for the eye test and points for those same two games. You have no idea if advanced stats work better in baseball than hockey, it's only your assumption. Like I told Cobra, if they didn't work they wouldn't be used.

Everyone knows advanced stats work better in baseball than hockey, it's common sense. Hockey will use them combined with eye test. Baseball does not need an eye test.

 

[Jakey53]

Stats, advanced or not, are but one piece of the puzzle. The are a valuable piece within context but no one would rely on them exclusively.

I don't think anyone said it was. Advanced stats just added to the equation on how to value a player.

 

[Jakey53]

Everyone knows advanced stats work better in baseball than hockey, it's common sense. Hockey will use them combined with eye test. Baseball does not need an eye test.

Says who?

 

[Jamieh]

Says who?

Jakey use your brain. Isolating one singular player is very easy to do in baseball, in hockey not so much. You need no one else to hit or field with you in baseball, in hockey you need teammates to make pretty much every play. How can you even consider that analytics are anywhere near equal for the two sports?? Analytics are important in pretty much every sport but they are easier to quantify in one sport than almost any other.

 

[Sinurgy]

I don't think anyone said it was. Advanced stats just added to the equation on how to value a player.

Notice I didn't quote anyone.

 

[YotesFan47]

Is there really a debate going on over the value of analytics? Each GM is going to use them differently and at verying frequencies, in conjunction with the eye test. The GM will focus on the skills they think are required to give their team an edge. It really can't get more simple. The only debate should be if we believe our GM is using the tools available to build the team correctly for long or short term success.

 

[Jakey53]

Jakey use your brain. Isolating one singular player is very easy to do in baseball, in hockey not so much. You need no one else to hit or field with you in baseball, in hockey you need teammates to make pretty much every play. How can you even consider that analytics are anywhere near equal for the two sports?? Analytics are important in pretty much every sport but they are easier to quantify in one sport than almost any other.

I literally have no idea what equation they use to get these advanced stats, analytics or whatever you call them. I just look at the results. I'm sure they are much more complicated than you or I think.

 

[Jakey53]

Is there really a debate going on over the value of analytics? Each GM is going to use them differently and at verying frequencies, in conjunction with the eye test. The GM will focus on the skills they think are required to give their team an edge. It really can't get more simple. The only debate should be if we believe our GM is using the tools available to build the team correctly for long or short term success.

Exactly, but I don't think it is quite that simple. I wonder how many different analytics are available for hockey? Which ones are the most popular? Which ones are not?

 

[YotesFan47]

Exactly, but I don't think it is quite that simple. I wonder how many different analytics are available for hockey? Which ones are the most popular? Which ones are not?

I mean, it really is that simple. If I'm the GM and I want raw analytics on my team/players and that of every other NHL team/player so I can use that data to make educated decisions using either simple or complex calculations, I go out and hire a team or a firm to put that together. Then I take the data that matters to me and make moves that fit my image of a cup contending team.

The way that GMs read the data may be different from team to team, but most will have similar data based on how good the people compiling the data are.

Some GMs will rely more heavily on the data than the eye test but I can't imagine any team has significantly less access because their GM is less driven by spreadsheets.

 

[cobra427]

Craig Morgan mentioned recently in a tweet or an article that NHL teams don’t use the same advanced stats available to fans. They mostly have proprietary versions and they tend to be pretty dismissive of the ones available to fans. I believe Morgan stated that WAR and GAR are particularly scoffed at by Chayka and Co.

It’s probably just nerds splitting hairs and it’s basically the same stuff. But I thought it was interesting.

Not just Chayka, other GMs are not WAR or VAR fans either. Every team uses or looks at some form of advanced stats. In hockey, there are just too many variables with other players that affect outcomes to rely on stats to make a decision. Coaches and GMs rely on the eye test, they have trained eyes, unlike most of us, and they watch tape. This is how they make decisions. They then also use advanced stats to confirm what they are thinking. If the advanced stats don't confirm their thinking, they take a harder look at the player and find out they missed something or they wind up ignoring the advanced stats.

 

[hbk]

Didn’t Chayka just revamp our amateur scouting department including hiring folks whose sole job is to code plays to create the raw data for their analytics. The key I. The process is the coding. Otherwise it’s garbage in /garbage out.