Confirmed with Link: Duchene to OTT in three-team trade

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Micklebot

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1) 15th isn't disrespectful by any means, based on his regular season stats and the price tag rumored in the open market you would expect more given his line support. The bad numbers are facing elimination, and it's not a small sample size either.

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2) I didn't say anyone is rescuing their teams on a regular basis. There are alot of clutch scorers in the NHL and superstars are supposed to score big goals or make big saves when it counts.


Since when is 10 elimination games not a small sample size? This is lunacy if you think 10 games is a predictive sample...
 

Larionov

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Apologies if this has been mentioned already, but Kane's new deal sets the bar for Duchene. It's tough to see Duchene signing for much less than the 7x7 Kane got. Ditto for Stone...
 

Sens of Anarchy

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Apologies if this has been mentioned already, but Kane's new deal sets the bar for Duchene. It's tough to see Duchene signing for much less than the 7x7 Kane got. Ditto for Stone...
They won't sign for less and most probably would not have even without the Kane deal. The only way Stone signs for less is possibly thru an arbitrator or a very short term bridge deal that would bring him to UFA.
 

Tnuoc Alucard

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Good point, he was a crucial part of their killer PP. Maybe if Duchene had produced on the PP, he'd have more than 8 playoff games to his name.


From what I've seen this season, from Duchene, and in the Playoffs from Stamkos, I'm going to choose Duchene over Stamkos.

Stamkos has evolved into a PP Specialist, for a number of reasons, including his injury history.

Duchene has shown me more than enough, to make me see that his game is multifaceted, and that, for me, gives his the edge over Stamkos.

You can talk all you want about what both players have done, or not done in the past ............ I'm basing my opinion on what I've seen from the these two in the last seven months (or so) and I like Duchene's overall game better than Stamkos's game.
 

Micklebot

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From what I've seen this season, from Duchene, and in the Playoffs from Stamkos, I'm going to choose Duchene over Stamkos.

Stamkos has evolved into a PP Specialist, for a number of reasons, including his injury history.

Duchene has shown me more than enough, to make me see that his game is multifaceted, and that, for me, gives his the edge over Stamkos.

You can talk all you want about what both players have done, or not done in the past ............ I'm basing my opinion on what I've seen from the these two in the last seven months (or so) and I like Duchene's overall game better than Stamkos's game.

Yeah, his 53 ES points this season really do exemplify a PP specialist.
 
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Sensinitis

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Yeah, his 53 ES points this season really do exemplify a PP specialist.

You’re cherry picking. First of all he was glued to Kucherov who was the driving force of that line. Secondly in the playoffs (i.e. where it matters most) he was very average 5 on 5. Sure it’s great he was able to produce on the PP, but the game isn’t played on the PP for the most part and he choked hard in game 7. Had just one weak deflected shot on goal.
 

Ice-Tray

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When you're a team that doesn't spend to the cap, what is the motivation for not wanting to spend that much on a player and deciding it's better to move on? Clearly, we could be a better team if we kept some of these guys on, and it wasn't an artificial limit in the cap that prevented us from doing so,

My point is your claim that we've kept everyone we wanted to is a nothingburger. It's meaningless but you brandy it about as proof that there's nothing to worry about and we can sign anybody we want. Basically, the same thing could be said about every single team in the league; they all kept the guys they wanted, and let go or traded those they didn't want to keep. The Hawks traded Saad because they couldn't afford him under the cap? Nah, they just judged his value not to be high enough to justify making the moves required to keep him. Arizona traded Yandle to save money? Nope, they just didn't like him anymore and wanted to use their money elsewhere.

It's fine if you think we should have no issues signing the guys we want, personally, I think there are ways to make that happen (like trading off Smith, for futures, buying out Gaborik, ect) but to say we have always signed the guys we wanted to keep is verifiable false and even if you want to exclude smaller contracts like the 3 year ~3.5 mil per we offered Hemsky, and the one year we offered Stalberg that were both rejected by the players, and the whole Afredsson fiasco it's outright meaningless because you can apply the same logic to every team in the league.

[MOD] You know very well that this is not my point.[MOD] I say we should feel good about resigning Duchene because we seem to always get our big guys locked up without issue, and you come back with: "It's meaningless but you brandy it about as proof that there's nothing to worry about and we can sign anybody we want."

Dude, my point has just as much 'merit' as anything else posted here. 'Proof' on HFSens is open to interpretation, whether its a rumour or a bunch of stats you've posted and interpreted to support your position. Rather than getting hung up on minutia, try and focus on what I'm saying.

To support my point that we should expect Duchene to be signed I suggest that we consider that we have always signed the core guys we have wanted to keep (Ryan, Hoffman, EK, etc...). We traded Turris to get Duchene, because we didn't want to commit big dollars and term to him, and so we flipped him and a couple first for a rather large upgrade which we will of course sign. PD targeted him for over a year, unless he wants to leave he will be signed.

And then you go and call my point verifiably false and then post a bunch of unverifiable 'stuff'. Just because we make an offer an it gets rejected doesn't mean we can't afford to go higher, it means we don't WANT to go higher for that player. This is the kind of negotiations that the whole board wants us to to, ie not over pay for guys, but I see you have no problem using this as your 'proof' of us being cheap when it suits your argument needs. Either way your evidence has no more strength than mine, is that not obvious to you? You don't agree, that's ok, lets not pretend that you have a stronger position. I have signed stars and core guys to back my claim, you have your interpretation of traded guys as your only backing, a backing that is open to be interpreted in the exact opposite way to suit my position.

Once again you seem hung up on altering the statement that I clarified in my last post. We have signed our stars/core/best players when we have wanted too. Of course we can't sign every complimentary player for an amount that THEY want, who can? My point, in the Duchene thread, is that we really have more reasons to be confident that he gets signed than not given our team's history with signing our star/core/best players. Alfie is a super clear (as it gets) example of us not WANTING to sing the guy at this ask, rather than not being ABLE to (evidenced further by EM/GM's decision to offer blank cheque when it looked like Alfie might actually leave), so I'm not sure why you keep bring up a situation that helps prove my point.

Also, Hemsky is not even close to guarantee to make us better at all, neither was Stalberg, Wingles, etc... And Turris? Sure we would be better if we ALSO had him, but what other asset would you rather have given up for Duchene? And how long before that AT BEST 6x6 looked to be another albatross contract that we couldn't get out of (I would not have wanted that from the get go). Having everyone on the team doesn't guarantee to make us better in the short or long term.

Why anyone would want to argue such a tenuous position so forcefully, especially when the more likely outcome is the one we all want, is beyond me. There is lots of other stuff to vent about that makes a whole lot more sense.
 
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Micklebot

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You’re cherry picking. First of all he was glued to Kucherov who was the driving force of that line. Secondly in the playoffs (i.e. where it matters most) he was very average 5 on 5. Sure it’s great he was able to produce on the PP, but the game isn’t played on the PP for the most part and he choked hard in game 7. Had just one weak deflected shot on goal.

No, cherry picking is looking at one game or a small selection of games and making a determination based largely on that. What I did was show that he's clearly still doing just fine at ES through the ENTIRE reg season. Heck, you can look at his lines numbers without Kucherov if you want, 64% GF%, 58% SCF%, 61% HDCF%, doesn't scream PP specialist there either. There really isn't much basis in the claim that he's a PP specialist. He may not be the force he once was, but he's still very much and effective player in all situations that other teams need to key in on.
 

Ice-Tray

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If Duchene can put together a full season like he played out the second half he'll be one of the best centres in the league. He's revitalized and happy here, this could be so great for us.

As for Duchene vs Stammer, I wouldn't give up Duchene until after I see him this upcoming season, what a beast!

Edit: I wonder if GM's in negotiations are like "dude, don't even TRY using the Kane deal, we all know that was a terrible deal! Let's get back to (insert player) as comparisons."

It's not a given that an over paid guy sets the bar, God, imagine Clarkson set the bar for his ilk... We'd be doomed....
 

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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[MOD] you seem to be pandering to the negative crowd here for points at this point. I say we should feel good about resigning Duchene because we seem to always get our big guys locked up without issue, and you come back with: "It's meaningless but you brandy it about as proof that there's nothing to worry about and we can sign anybody we want."

Dude, my point has just as much 'merit' as anything else posted here. 'Proof' on HFSens is open to interpretation, whether its a rumour or a bunch of stats you've posted and interpreted to support your position. Rather than getting hung up on minutia, try and focus on what I'm saying.

To support my point that we should expect Duchene to be signed I suggest that we consider that we have always signed the core guys we have wanted to keep (Ryan, Hoffman, EK, etc...). We traded Turris to get Duchene, because we didn't want to commit big dollars and term to him, and so we flipped him and a couple first for a rather large upgrade which we will of course sign. PD targeted him for over a year, unless he wants to leave he will be signed.

And then you go and call my point verifiably false and then post a bunch of unverifiable 'stuff'. Just because we make an offer an it gets rejected doesn't mean we can't afford to go higher, it means we don't WANT to go higher for that player. This is the kind of negotiations that the whole board wants us to to, ie not over pay for guys, but I see you have no problem using this as your 'proof' of us being cheap when it suits your argument needs. Either way your evidence has no more strength than mine, is that not obvious to you? You don't agree, that's ok, lets not pretend that you have a stronger position. I have signed stars and core guys to back my claim, you have your interpretation of traded guys as your only backing, a backing that is open to be interpreted in the exact opposite way to suit my position.

Once again you seem hung up on altering the statement that I clarified in my last post. We have signed our stars/core/best players when we have wanted too. Of course we can't sign every complimentary player for an amount that THEY want, who can? My point, in the Duchene thread, is that we really have more reasons to be confident that he gets signed than not given our team's history with signing our star/core/best players. Alfie is a super clear (as it gets) example of us not WANTING to sing the guy at this ask, rather than not being ABLE to (evidenced further by EM/GM's decision to offer blank cheque when it looked like Alfie might actually leave), so I'm not sure why you keep bring up a situation that helps prove my point.

Also, Hemsky is not even close to guarantee to make us better at all, neither was Stalberg, Wingles, etc... And Turris? Sure we would be better if we ALSO had him, but what other asset would you rather have given up for Duchene? And how long before that AT BEST 6x6 looked to be another albatross contract that we couldn't get out of (I would not have wanted that from the get go). Having everyone on the team doesn't guarantee to make us better in the short or long term.

Why anyone would want to argue such a tenuous position so forcefully, especially when the more likely outcome is the one we all want, is beyond me. There is lots of other stuff to vent about that makes a whole lot more sense.

You've written a wall of text, and it all reads as "I am right because I said so". My point is and was simple, you claim we've always signed who we wanted to, but from what I can tell, it's based solely on your assumption that if we didn't sign someone, it's because we didn't want to. So why bother saying it; it's circular logic. Sorry if it got your hair standing on end.
 
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Mr Hat

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Since when is 10 elimination games not a small sample size? This is lunacy if you think 10 games is a predictive sample...


So we need to wait for him to be 40 years old with 20 pointless elimination to pass judgement? Boucher is that you??
 

Micklebot

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So we need to wait for him to be 40 years old with 20 pointless elimination to pass judgement? Boucher is that you??

If you want a predictive sample that is useful for estimating future results? Yes, you still need a bigger sample. Just because something happens infrequently doesn't mean you need less data to know how future events will likely unfold. Honestly... do you not see how illogical what you're suggesting is?

When you restrict your sample really uncommon, sometimes you just will never be able to get a significant enough sample size to be valuable in predicting future results.
 

Ice-Tray

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You've written a wall of text, and it all reads as "I am right because I said so". My point is and was simple, you claim we've always signed who we wanted to, but from what I can tell, it's based solely on your assumption that if we didn't sign someone, it's because we didn't want to. So why bother saying it; it's circular logic. Sorry if it got your hair standing on end.

Hehe, no it's all good, I'm not irritated at all, though I do get fired up in discussions. It's all a lot more fun for me in person really, this stuff is too flaky to be honest.

You're hiding behind the minutia that suits you and are building a wall around it. All you're doing is repeating a misrepresentation of my point over and over again, avoiding facing what I'm actually saying head on. I'm not really a fan of the approach but what can you do on the internet? No point wasting any more time on it though.

It feels like you understand what I'm saying and likely agree, but are being disagreeable on principle. In person I'm sure we'd have a better discussion, but this is just silly at this point.

I guess in spite of our history of signing our stars/core/best players, you disagree that we are more than likely to sign Duchene because we didn't sign Stalberg, Hemsky, and others. We can leave it at that, agree to disagree.
 

Micklebot

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I know you're trying to make a point, but at that rate Nathan MacKinnon sucks ass compared to Alex killorn.

Except that I'm not comparing players, I'm saying using a highly restricted sample to evaluate a player isn't all that smart. Duchene's 8 games and grand total of 6 assists would give him a 12-13 pts pace in the same number of games as Stamkos played this season; does that inspire confidence? Is that useful in determining who would be better? Why would you use Stamkos' post season this year as proof that he's less desirable than Duchene but not use that same criteria with Duchene? Does it matter that Duchene has all of 1 career shot in elimination games? Or that he's gone shot-less in 50% of his career playoff games?

I'm not down on Duchene, I really quite like him, but there's no reason to put down Stamkos to prop up Duchene. Duchene can still be an awesome player while not being as good as Stamkos.
 

JungleBeat

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I know you're trying to make a point, but at that rate Nathan MacKinnon sucks ass compared to Alex killorn.
MacKinnon carried his team to the playoffs once Duchene left

Anyways, this isn’t worth discussing since it really doesn’t matter. What matters is how much Duchene will ask for if he’s re-signing here. I’d guess $7.5M.
 

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
53,974
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Hehe, no it's all good, I'm not irritated at all, though I do get fired up in discussions. It's all a lot more fun for me in person really, this stuff is too flaky to be honest.

You're hiding behind the minutia that suits you and are building a wall around it. All you're doing is repeating a misrepresentation of my point over and over again, avoiding facing what I'm actually saying head on. I'm not really a fan of the approach but what can you do on the internet? No point wasting any more time on it though.

It feels like you understand what I'm saying and likely agree, but are being disagreeable on principle. In person I'm sure we'd have a better discussion, but this is just silly at this point.

I guess in spite of our history of signing our stars/core/best players, you disagree that we are more than likely to sign Duchene because we didn't sign Stalberg, Hemsky, and others. We can leave it at that, agree to disagree.

My concern is less that we won't sign Duchene, more that by doing so (partially because it would be embarrassing to trade so much for him only to trade him off because of contract demands, and partially because he's a darn good player) we will sacrifice elsewhere; perhaps by trading Hoffman or Dzingel, or maybe Ceci. I won't count Karlsson in that group, because if we trade him it's not to make room for Duchene. So sure, don't worry, we'll keep Duchene, and Stone so long as their willing to sign here, but at what cost.

In the end, this team imo has on countless occasions shown it's going to put finances ahead of good hockey trades. Oh, they will try their best to balance the two competing interests, but at the end of the day, financial considerations is a hard line that can't be passed, at least that's my take on it.
 

Mark Stones Spleen

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Jan 17, 2008
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Except that I'm not comparing players, I'm saying using a highly restricted sample to evaluate a player isn't all that smart. Duchene's 8 games and grand total of 6 assists would give him a 12-13 pts pace in the same number of games as Stamkos played this season; does that inspire confidence? Is that useful in determining who would be better? Why would you use Stamkos' post season this year as proof that he's less desirable than Duchene but not use that same criteria with Duchene? Does it matter that Duchene has all of 1 career shot in elimination games? Or that he's gone shot-less in 50% of his career playoff games?

I'm not down on Duchene, I really quite like him, but there's no reason to put down Stamkos to prop up Duchene. Duchene can still be an awesome player while not being as good as Stamkos.
Yeah, that's why I was saying I know you're trying to prove a point. I don't disagree with you, I just think those posters were referring more to playing styles, not production.
 

Micklebot

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MacKinnon carried his team to the playoffs once Duchene left

Anyways, this isn’t worth discussing since it really doesn’t matter. What matters is how much Duchene will ask for if he’s re-signing here. I’d guess $7.5M.
I think it will be closer to 8 mil. If he waits till next offseason, he could really put the pressure on us, and if he continues to play like he finished the season, there's no doubt in my mind that he'll be able to command 8 mil, particularly once the estimates for the subsequent year's cap come out.
 

DrEasy

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I'm generally wary of using playoff performance to prove anything. The samples are always small, and how often have we seen someone be given a "choker" label then he turns around and wins the Cup? After all it is a team game.

If I'm going to pick a player and I have the choice between the one who has the better regular season stats and the one who has the better playoff stats but in a much smaller sample size, I'll always go for the regular season performer.
 

Mr Hat

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Oct 24, 2017
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If you want a predictive sample that is useful for estimating future results? Yes, you still need a bigger sample. Just because something happens infrequently doesn't mean you need less data to know how future events will likely unfold. Honestly... do you not see how illogical what you're suggesting is?

When you restrict your sample really uncommon, sometimes you just will never be able to get a significant enough sample size to be valuable in predicting future results.

OVs elmination game stats says he shows up big time where Stamkos is the opposite. It is what it is until proven otherwise. When there is no realistic means of getting mass data you make decisions with what you have.

You can't compare the pressure of an elimination game to anything else, so it should be looked at independently.

Is it a guarantee that Stamkos will continue this trend? Certainly not, but the eye test confirms his impact in these games is non existent and his style of play seems to be the reason why (perimeter player, one timer and PP specialist). These are not the qualities that win championships alone. The eye test also confirms OV is a force all over the ice.
 
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