Dreger: Duchene/Ottawa Contract Talks are Beginning to Sour

[Ararana]

Duchene has been great here. One of the few reasons to even watch this team play. I wouldnt be surprised if Ottawa didn't offer any bonus structure and didnt offer a NMC like they did with Karlsson. It's a joke really, go explore UFA Duchene, that's your best option.

I've watched almost every Sens game this season, for obvious reasons, and Duchene is absoluetly not the problem in Ottawa. It's the only reason I hope they're forced to trade him by the end of the month.

 

[Sureves]

I think Pierre Dorion thought it was a can't lose move where because Turris was a sunk cost, if Duchene wasn't going to re-sign in 2019, he could recoup the assets he gave up for him at the 2019 trade deadline.

The Senators projected as a playoff bubble team at the time of the trade. If projection held true and the Senators were in contention for a playoff spot at the 2018 trade deadline, they were not going to move Turris for futures and sabotage their chances at a playoff run. That is why I think Dorion at the time of acquiring Duchene probably viewed Turris as a sunk cost in the trade.

If that's true, then in Dorion's frame of mind, because Turris was a sunk cost, I think he thought he was making a major upgrade by only giving up a mid 1st, Bowers, and a 3rd for Duchene. If you project outward, that's a very easy package to recoup if a year later in 2019 Matt Duchene and/or Erik Karlsson won't re-sign and the Senators opt to enter a rebuild or re-tool.

That's the only way I can really see the trade being rationalized at the time since it was a huge overpayment. We know now that the Senators completely tanked in the standings after the trade, and would have gladly traded UFA Turris for futures, so he never worked out to being that sunk cost.

Great post - I never thought about it this way.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

I've watched almost every Sens game this season, for obvious reasons, and Duchene is absoluetly not the problem in Ottawa. It's the only reason I hope they're forced to trade him by the end of the month.

Yeah, we need more talented players, not less.

And kudos to you for watching that many Sens games, I have watched all but 2 this season and I am a Sens fan and I absolutely cannot stand watching this sad sack roster anymore.

 

[Theodore450]

He’s easily worth 8

 

[Patagonia]

I've watched nearly every game of his career, and he is not worth 8m a year. He is not a legit 1c, and he's shown that his entire career. He is incredibly streaky, and has mental issues that affect his game.

You're correct that Colorado was crap for a few years while he was there, but part of them being crap, was having Duchene as a 1c.

I'm not thinking of power forwards, I am thinking about players like Duchene, who rely on speed and dexterity to perform. He will only get slower, and less agile.

He's broken 60 points once in his career, and he's had talented players to play with.

He's a decent all-around player, but isn't elite at anything. He was pretty fast in his first few seasons, but that is long gone.

I don't know a single person who's followed his career closely, that would want him at 8x8.

I'd be ok with 6.5×5, and even then, I'd have concerns for years 4-5.

I'm also saying this as a Duchene fan, who has 2 of his jerseys.

He's a great 2c at 6.5m on a team looking to contend, and who already has a legit 1c.

You keep contradicting yourself and changing the narrative. Maybe $10M is too high, but you also felt that $8M which seems to be the universally agreed amount is unreasonable.

Duchene with a few others Stone, Chabot, Anderson etc. are trying to keep the Sens afloat and help the youngsters. This is insulting when he is playing hard and having a career year for a wasted season.

Playing for the AVs, he was constantly among the team leaders even when they were terrible. He even signed for less than O'Reilly and never complained about $$$ when he was the better player to ensure they have enough room under the Cap. His final season was less than stellar, but you can't ignore his career contribution to the team and city. Mackinnon needed a few seasons and Landy struggled for years. Sometimes it's not the player, but the team or coaching.

Finally, when you talk about losing...McDavid is stuck in the abyss playing for the Oilers. Judging him because the failure of the team?

Duchene might be childishly immature and the Sens overpaid in the trade, but you cannot ignore his professionalism. He has performed or exceeded expectations from the trade and contract.

I expect he'll sign in the $8M-$9M and continue to play well throughout his contract.

 

[AvsFan29]

This seems very contradictory to what you’re actually posting. Im not even a fan of his but I feel the need to defend him from this onslaught.

10 million is absolutely insane, but that’s the market. Players don’t sign for what fans think they should make, they make what the market dictates. It’s all about supply and demand and a player of Duchene’s calibre is never on the open market, so he’ll be paid accordingly.

If a Johansen can get $8M two years ago in a non state tax city. Than I think a Duchene can get $10M+ in a Montreal who’s been center starved seemingly forever.

I highly doubt he gets a 10m offer anywhere. I can see 8.5m, or maybe 9, and only because he's a great 2c.

If a player like Duchene can get 10m, I am curious what Matthews / Marner / Rantanen / Simmonds / Panarin / Stone / Karlsson will fetch. I know they aren't all UFA or playing the same position.

Considering Duchenes career, and age, even 8x7 is too high.

6.5-7 and he's a great 2c on any team.

 

[Shad]

8mil plus free Uber rides sounds fair

 

[AvsFan29]

You keep contradicting yourself and changing the narrative. Maybe $10M is too high, but you also felt that $8M which seems to be the universally agreed amount is unreasonable.

Duchene with a few others Stone, Chabot, Anderson etc. are trying to keep the Sens afloat and help the youngsters. This is insulting when he is playing hard and having a career year for a wasted season.

Playing for the AVs, he was constantly among the team leaders even when they were terrible. He even signed for less than O'Reilly and never complained about $$$ when he was the better player to ensure they have enough room under the Cap. His final season was less than stellar, but you can't ignore his career contribution to the team and city. Mackinnon needed a few seasons and Landy struggled for years. Sometimes it's not the player, but the team or coaching.

Finally, when you talk about losing...McDavid is stuck in the abyss playing for the Oilers. Judging him because the failure of the team?

Duchene might be childishly immature and the Sens overpaid in the trade, but you cannot ignore his professionalism. He has performed or exceeded expectations from the trade and contract.

I expect he'll sign in the $8M-$9M and continue to play well throughout his contract.

Yah I think 8 is too high, but not by much. 6.5-7 is what I'd be comfortable with for Duchene in a 2c position.

I don't know why you would think he will play well throughout his contract, when he has never shown any consistency, and is notorious for going on lengthy cold streaks. Anything over 7 will look terrible in 2-3 years if he's expected to be a 1c.

Oddly enough, one of the team's that could use him the most, is Colorado. They are dying for a solid 2c that can put up 50-60 points, and be a threat on the 2nd PP.

I'd gladly see him on Colorado for 6.5-7, but it won't happen.

Nashville is my guess.

 

[Macch]

Shocking news here

 

[Muston Atthews]

I don’t want to live in a world where Duchene spits at an 8m/y offer

 

[Brock Radunske]

I pity the fan base who's team pays Duchene $9mil

 

[Hasbro]

Forget any discount. Dutch would need a premium to stay with the Sens. An equal dollar offer from a team with lower income tax, not in turmoil and lock out proofing his deal carries more of a dollar value.

 

[qwerty]

I highly doubt he gets a 10m offer anywhere. I can see 8.5m, or maybe 9, and only because he's a great 2c.

If a player like Duchene can get 10m, I am curious what Matthews / Marner / Rantanen / Simmonds / Panarin / Stone / Karlsson will fetch. I know they aren't all UFA or playing the same position.

Considering Duchenes career, and age, even 8x7 is too high.

6.5-7 and he's a great 2c on any team.

Duchene is 11th in points per game among all NHL centers right now. Only 7 teams have a center who has a higher rate of scoring than him. To you he's a no. 2 center. But to a lot of other teams, he'll be their no. 1 center.

You don't have to give up any assets to acquire him, so I suspect there will be quite a few teams interested in his services. If a team like San Jose who's already loaded with star players can offer $13M to John Tavares. Then like I said, $10M isn't out of the question for a player like Duchene who's becoming a UFA at a relatively young age. I mean, how many quality centers hit the UFA market at the age of 28? Almost none.

If he does get $9M, it'll be in a city with no state tax which is equivalent to $10M+ in Ottawa. Duchene's agent probably knows the market pretty well at this point and when his camp says that's not even a starting point, I'm really not surprised.

 

[AvsFan29]

Duchene is 11th in points per game among all NHL centers right now. Only 7 teams have a center who has a higher rate of scoring than him. To you he's a no. 2 center. But to a lot of other teams, he'll be their no. 1 center.

You don't have to give up any assets to acquire him, so I suspect there will be quite a few teams interested in his services. If a team like San Jose who's already loaded with star players can offer $13M to John Tavares. Then like I said, $10M isn't out of the question for a player like Duchene who's becoming a UFA at a relatively young age. I mean, how many quality centers hit the UFA market at the age of 28? Almost none.

If he does get $9M, it'll be in a city with no state tax which is equivalent to $10M+ in Ottawa. Duchene's agent probably knows the market pretty well at this point and when his camp says that's not even a starting point, I'm really not surprised.

11th in points per game among centers over the last 40ish games he's played is irrelevant. Any team willing to sign him, will be looking at his career. He isn't a top 20 center in the league.

After listening to his interview today, it sounds like he's as good as gone, so I guess we'll get to see what happens sooner than later.

 

[SpezDispenser]

8 million...give him his 9 or even 9.5. This franchise is driving me nuts right now. I'm young enough to outlive melnyk thank goodness.

 

[Hasbro]

Duchene is 11th in points per game among all NHL centers right now. Only 7 teams have a center who has a higher rate of scoring than him. To you he's a no. 2 center. But to a lot of other teams, he'll be their no. 1 center.

You don't have to give up any assets to acquire him, so I suspect there will be quite a few teams interested in his services. If a team like San Jose who's already loaded with star players can offer $13M to John Tavares. Then like I said, $10M isn't out of the question for a player like Duchene who's becoming a UFA at a relatively young age. I mean, how many quality centers hit the UFA market at the age of 28? Almost none.

Arizona can always eat another contract for someone.

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

How many years ago was that again? Yes. He was very overpaid.

So you're saying 2 years ago, O'Reilly was overpaid with a 7.5 million dollar contract and Duchene won't even discuss 8 now. Right. Not to mention O'Reilly still has 4 years left after this.

 

[qwerty]

11th in points per game among centers over the last 40ish games he's played is irrelevant. Any team willing to sign him, will be looking at his career. He isn't a top 20 center in the league.

After listening to his interview today, it sounds like he's as good as gone, so I guess we'll get to see what happens sooner than later.

I don’t think it’s irrelevant at all. A good or bad performance in a contract year carries more weight than past seasons.

Look at Evander Kane, guy had some mediocre to bad 30-40 point seasons, then has a good month or 2 with the Sharks and he gets a long term deal for $7M annually. Centers who can drive play are worth way more than wingers, so if that cap rises as much as I think it will, Duchene will get paid no doubt.

 

[AvsFan29]

I don’t think it’s irrelevant at all. A good or bad performance in a contract year carries more weight than past seasons.

Look at Evander Kane, guy had some mediocre to bad 30-40 point seasons, then has a good month or 2 with the Sharks and he gets a long term deal for $7M annually. Centers who can drive play are worth way more than wingers, so if that cap rises as much as I think it will, Duchene will get paid no doubt.

It's projected to go up to 83m (up 3.5m), but will most likely stall or go down over the next few seasons due to a recession.

 

[Tkachuckycheese]

Do you think a trade between Arizona and Ottawa could work. Something involving Chychrun ++ for a signed Duchene + Pick

 

[tucker3434]

Unless I’ve missed someone, Duchene is pretty easily the best long term center available in this UFA class. Screw “what he’s worth.” He’s going to have tons of suitors. At $8m, he can pick his destination, because everyone will offer that. If he wants $9m, his options will begin to narrow, but I’m confident he could get that if he really wants it.

So, the Sens need to set $9m per on a lockout proof contract in front of him and force him to make that decision. It’s too much money, but it’s far better than the alternative. If he’s willing to take $8, he’ll take it from Nashville and chase a cup next season.

 

[milehigh11]

Playing for the AVs, he was constantly among the team leaders even when they were terrible. He even signed for less than O'Reilly and never complained about $$$ when he was the better player to ensure they have enough room under the Cap. His final season was less than stellar, but you can't ignore his career contribution to the team and city. Mackinnon needed a few seasons and Landy struggled for years. Sometimes it's not the player, but the team or coaching.

Huh??? Duchene was already signed BEFORE O'Reilly. We had the known "DUCHENE CAP" here in Colorado and Joe didnt want to pay anyone more than Dutchy. Hence why O'Reilly was traded a year after we matched the RFA contract ROR signed with Calgary.


But it should also be noted that Duchene and O'Reilly are just losing players. Put up good stats but look at their teams

Dutch #1 center in colorado pretty much lost most of the time. They trade him they start to take off. Ottawa gets Duchene they become a dumpster (which also had other aspects happen).

O'Reilly gets traded to Buffalo they continue to suck. O'Reilly gets shipped to STL they start losing while Buffalo starts to play winning hockey for once.

good stat getters but they dont look like they help with winning.

 

[brians1128]

I think it has more about not wanting to play for tire fire Ottawa then it has to do with aav.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Unless I’ve missed someone, Duchene is pretty easily the best long term center available in this UFA class. Screw “what he’s worth.” He’s going to have tons of suitors. At $8m, he can pick his destination, because everyone will offer that. If he wants $9m, his options will begin to narrow, but I’m confident he could get that if he really wants it.

So, the Sens need to set $9m per on a lockout proof contract in front of him and force him to make that decision. It’s too much money, but it’s far better than the alternative. If he’s willing to take $8, he’ll take it from Nashville and chase a cup next season.

His options won’t be too narrow if he takes $9M. I suspect he could get an 8 figure offer from a few teams.

 

[Patagonia]

Huh??? Duchene was already signed BEFORE O'Reilly. We had the known "DUCHENE CAP" here in Colorado and Joe didnt want to pay anyone more than Dutchy. Hence why O'Reilly was traded a year after we matched the RFA contract ROR signed with Calgary.


But it should also be noted that Duchene and O'Reilly are just losing players. Put up good stats but look at their teams

Dutch #1 center in colorado pretty much lost most of the time. They trade him they start to take off. Ottawa gets Duchene they become a dumpster (which also had other aspects happen).

O'Reilly gets traded to Buffalo they continue to suck. O'Reilly gets shipped to STL they start losing while Buffalo starts to play winning hockey for once.

good stat getters but they dont look like they help with winning.

Duchene has little issue with the money being offered, ROR complained and held out. They were both finishing their contracts at the same time.

So technically, Duchene did sign earlier because ROR held out, strike and Russia etc.

He will get his $8M+ annually.