Dreger: Duchene/Ottawa Contract Talks are Beginning to Sour

[Foppberg]

Poor Ottawa, a year and a half ago they looked like a legit team with EK, Stone, Duchene, Hoffman, etc etc. Now they're.... yeah.

 

[SenatorJoey]

A pretty clear indication they weren't going to keep Duchene was when they wouldn't even keep Erik Karlsson.

Seriousily eh what was point of trading for him in first place then.

 

[tucker3434]

Seriousily eh what was point of trading for him in first place then.

Those decisions were made months apart. I guess you’d hope the direction of your entire franchise hasn’t changed in that amount of time.

 

[paragon]

He's broken 60 points once, and it was 6 years ago. I've watched nearly every game of his career, and whoever signs him at 8+ per season, is going to be very disappointed sooner than later.

I agree with you that he's not worth 8+ on a long deal when he's averaged 53 point the previous 4 season, but then again Evander Kane, a known locker room cancer, got 7M after averaging 44 points the previous 3 seasons.

 

[AvsFan29]

NSH has $10M available next season and could move Smith ($4.25M), Turris ($6M) or Bonnio ($4M). They can even consider Subban ($9M) with the impending Expansion Draft. Cap is likely increasing by $4M which should provide a little more space as well.

It’ll be tight, but doable with a few trades.

My money is him ending up in Nashville. He's a big country fan, and is friends with a few of the artists in Nashville. Obviously they are contenders, and have much lower tax.

 

[AvsFan29]

I agree with you that he's not worth 8+ on a long deal when he's averaged 53 point the previous 4 season, but then again Evander Kane, a known locker room cancer, got 7M after averaging 44 points the previous 3 seasons.

I'm not a superstitious person, but there is no other player in the NHL who has played in more losing games than Duchene over the last 2.5 seasons.

It's kind of incredible really, considering he was traded. The Avs guys weren't the biggest fan of him before he left, either.

 

[bert]

I'm not a superstitious person, but there is no other player in the NHL who has played in more losing games than Duchene over the last 2.5 seasons.

It's kind of incredible really, considering he was traded. The Avs guys weren't the biggest fan of him before he left, either.

If you think the losing in Ottawa is due to Duchene you should probably just find a new discussion to follow because this narrative is incorrect and B.S. You can suggest it was his fault in Colorado sure thats your team who you follow but you clearly arent watching sens games if this is what you are trying to push.

 

[AvsFan29]

If you think the losing in Ottawa is due to Duchene you should probably just find a new discussion to follow because this narrative is incorrect and B.S. You can suggest it was his fault in Colorado sure thats your team who you follow but you clearly arent watching sens games if this is what you are trying to push.

I didn't say anything like that. Read my comment again. Take a deep breath.

 

[bert]

I didn't say anything like that. Read my comment again. Take a deep breath.

You insinuated quite clearly that they are losing games because he is playing.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

Duchene has been great here. One of the few reasons to even watch this team play. I wouldnt be surprised if Ottawa didn't offer any bonus structure and didnt offer a NMC like they did with Karlsson. It's a joke really, go explore UFA Duchene, that's your best option.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

Seriousily eh what was point of trading for him in first place then.

A question Sens fans ask themselves every day.

 

[Ivan13]

I didn't say anything like that. Read my comment again. Take a deep breath.

Your post suggested just that in no uncertain terms.

 

[qwerty]

I've watched nearly every game of his career, and he is not worth 8m a year. He is not a legit 1c, and he's shown that his entire career. He is incredibly streaky, and has mental issues that affect his game.

You're correct that Colorado was crap for a few years while he was there, but part of them being crap, was having Duchene as a 1c.

I'm not thinking of power forwards, I am thinking about players like Duchene, who rely on speed and dexterity to perform. He will only get slower, and less agile.

He's broken 60 points once in his career, and he's had talented players to play with.

He's a decent all-around player, but isn't elite at anything. He was pretty fast in his first few seasons, but that is long gone.

I don't know a single person who's followed his career closely, that would want him at 8x8.

I'd be ok with 6.5×5, and even then, I'd have concerns for years 4-5.

I'm also saying this as a Duchene fan, who has 2 of his jerseys.

He's a great 2c at 6.5m on a team looking to contend, and who already has a legit 1c.

Ok so clearly you’re not a Duchene fan.

However, Duchene probably has a lot of clout within the league and GMs will want him because centers of his calibre are never available in the UFA market.

I’m not sure if you realize this, but a 32 year old Paul Stastny who put up 16 goals and 53 points last season got a $6.5M deal whereas Duchene is in his 20’s and is currently amidst his most productive season at well over a ppg.

The market dictates he will get paid considerably higher $6.5M. He’s an Olympian. He can line up at wing and at center. He wins a lot of draws and he’s proving he can produce at an elite offensive pace.

Depending on which city he signs in, I can see him getting $10M+. Toronto paid Tavares $11M to be a no.2 ceneter, San Jose offered him $13M. It’s not crazy to think he can close to or above $10M. $6.5M x 5 would just be straight up insulting.

 

[TeamRenzo]

Trade talks with one of our stars has begun to sour...shocking!

 

[AvsFan29]

Ok so clearly you’re not a Duchene fan.

However, Duchene probably has a lot of clout within the league and GMs will want him because centers of his calibre are never available in the UFA market.

I’m not sure if you realize this, but a 32 year old Paul Stastny who put up 16 goals and 53 points last season got a $6.5M deal whereas Duchene is in his 20’s and is currently amidst his most productive season at well over a ppg.

The market dictates he will get paid considerably higher $6.5M. He’s an Olympian. He can line up at wing and at center. He wins a lot of draws and he’s proving he can produce at an elite offensive pace.

Depending on which city he signs in, I can see him getting $10M+. Toronto paid Tavares $11M to be a no.2 ceneter, San Jose offered him $13M. It’s not crazy to think he can close to or above $10M. $6.5M x 5 would just be straight up insulting.

I am a Duchene fan. 10 million is insane.

 

[AvsFan29]

Your post suggested just that in no uncertain terms.

I didn't say it was his fault. I said he's been involved in more losing games than any other player. Which is purely bad luck, because he was traded.

 

[Chardo]

Tavares just got 11 mil. Duchene is going to get more than 8. That's just the reality of free agency. If 8 mil is a hard max for Ottawa, they need to trade him. He's never gonna sign for that. Nor should he.

Whether he's worth it is a whole separate argument.

 

[glovesave_35]

That trade was bizarre the moment it happened. The return was huge, much bigger than I thought Sakic would get. The player had a little more than a year left on his deal and was going to a team with wonky ownership that has a reputation for not wanting to spend. I felt like Duchene's value was pretty low because he asked for a trade, or clearly wanted one by that point in the rumor mill. So I was taken aback big time by the return because I thought from that whole drama and how close he was to free agency he would try it out no matter what.

 

[Leafs87]

I don’t know 8 mill for Duchene sounds pretty reasonable

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

More than 8 million for Duchene?

Idk about that chief.

To be fair, I wager if he was playing for a team like Tampa, Toronto or Nashville, he'd consider taking less. For the dumpster fire Ottawa has become, why would you take anything less than maximum free agent value? He can easily command 9-10M$ from teams willing to overpay.

 

[ffh]

Tavares just got 11 mil. Duchene is going to get more than 8. That's just the reality of free agency. If 8 mil is a hard max for Ottawa, they need to trade him. He's never gonna sign for that. Nor should he.

Whether he's worth it is a whole separate argument.

because 1 team overpays doesn't mean the next team is obliged to do so also.

 

[Chardo]

because 1 team overpays doesn't mean the next team is obliged to do so also.

But some team will. Always.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

That trade was bizarre the moment it happened. The return was huge, much bigger than I thought Sakic would get. The player had a little more than a year left on his deal and was going to a team with wonky ownership that has a reputation for not wanting to spend. I felt like Duchene's value was pretty low because he asked for a trade, or clearly wanted one by that point in the rumor mill. So I was taken aback big time by the return because I thought from that whole drama and how close he was to free agency he would try it out no matter what.

I think Pierre Dorion thought it was a can't lose move where because Turris was a sunk cost, if Duchene wasn't going to re-sign in 2019, he could recoup the assets he gave up for him at the 2019 trade deadline.

The Senators projected as a playoff bubble team at the time of the trade. If projection held true and the Senators were in contention for a playoff spot at the 2018 trade deadline, they were not going to move Turris for futures and sabotage their chances at a playoff run. That is why I think Dorion at the time of acquiring Duchene probably viewed Turris as a sunk cost in the trade.

If that's true, then in Dorion's frame of mind, because Turris was a sunk cost, I think he thought he was making a major upgrade by only giving up a mid 1st, Bowers, and a 3rd for Duchene. If you project outward, that's a very easy package to recoup if a year later in 2019 Matt Duchene and/or Erik Karlsson won't re-sign and the Senators opt to enter a rebuild or re-tool.

That's the only way I can really see the trade being rationalized at the time since it was a huge overpayment. We know now that the Senators completely tanked in the standings after the trade, and would have gladly traded UFA Turris for futures, so he never worked out to being that sunk cost.

 

[qwerty]

I am a Duchene fan. 10 million is insane.

This seems very contradictory to what you’re actually posting. Im not even a fan of his but I feel the need to defend him from this onslaught.

10 million is absolutely insane, but that’s the market. Players don’t sign for what fans think they should make, they make what the market dictates. It’s all about supply and demand and a player of Duchene’s calibre is never on the open market, so he’ll be paid accordingly.

If a Johansen can get $8M two years ago in a non state tax city. Than I think a Duchene can get $10M+ in a Montreal who’s been center starved seemingly forever.

 

[CREW99AW]

I don’t know 8 mill for Duchene sounds pretty reasonable

I disagree. He is gonna put up 55-60 pts, add speed and strong faceoff numbers. That is not worth $8m.
Nevermind the $9m + that some posters in this thread are suggesting.