Value of: Drouin to Colorado

[Habs Halifax]

I don't think its unreasonable to think a forward drafted in the top 15 of the draft can become a top 6 winger that puts up at least 45 points a year or bring other things to the table. Even in they turn out even, the drafted player still has all of his years on their ELC, is about 5-6 years younger and wing is the easiest position to transition into the NHL as.

You should expect top 10 picks to be top line big time guys, which Drouin isn't. Once you get closer to 15 then its more risk/reward type of stuff which seems fair.

Doesn't matter, The point is thinking the 10th OA pick is for sure better than Drouin which is not true. Drouin is a proven NHL talent and on pace for 55-60 pts this year at age 23. Proven talent like this is worth the 10th OA pick. Thinks change though when you start talking a top 5 pick.

Islanders almost traded the 11th or 12th pick for Patch (for one year with a possible extension). Drouin already has term with the current contract and is a young player who is improving.

 

[Spilot23]

Yes, but they the Drouin Galchenyuk Pacioretty line never really happened tho. I believe it was more Lekhonen Drouin Pacioretty. From what I remember, Drouin was pretty good to start the year, but both Lekhonen and Pac had trouble finishing his plays. Then the moral of the team was down and Pacioretty was playing without any passion. Drouin did pretty good with Galchenyuk to finish the year.

My bad there mate. I don't particularly watch the Habs but living in Quebec (my dad is a big Habs fan) with the media they've got I guess I heard that from there that it would happen or should happen but never did. Thanks for clarifying though.

 

[sandysan]

I remember at the 2013 draft some people were saying Drouin was the only reason MacKinnon was so good in Halifax. Swing and a miss.

I'd love to reunite Drouin with Mack to see if some of those old fireworks could spark but I'd view him as a reclamation project. I doubt Montreal is at that point yet.

we are getting there slowly, but no we wont move Drouin largely because of the optics. if we do it HAS to be for a proven LD.

 

[De Montreal]

I dont think people should question Drouin effort. I think his determination is pretty good, as seen in the playoffs with the Lightning - he has a desire to win and more importantly to be à différence maker.

Right now he’s in a slump, but he’s also very often the first forward backchecking after a turnover - only problem is that more often than not, he’s the cause of the turnover.

He need to make better decision with the puck, and play the odd games offensively instead of trying to force dangerous play. That, and also a centre that can keep up with his creativity.

Lot of issues with him that he can work on before his ‘’determination’’ or ‘’effort’’ which are just words people use to describ a non-physical player in a slump.

 

[780il]

Nuge + Lucic + Puljujarvi for Drouin


Drouin next to Drai on the 2nd line would be dynamite.

 

[Hasbro]

I wouldn't even do this straight up.

That Drouin to Colorado madness has to stop. Aside from the Avs lacking top6 forwards, he is exactly what we don't need from these added top6 guys. We already have enough soft, smallish offensive first players.

I would swap Barrie for him given that I really dread signing him to a huge longterm extension which IMO would be a giant mistake with EJ already on a deal that is not looking good and RHD being the strength of our system by far. And realistically he doesn't have great value with 1 year left so if Bergevin wants to do that and nothing better is on the table, I might do it.

But the 1sts are completely off limit for Drouin. Same for Zadorov. It is no coincidence that the Avs have an absolute dog**** record without Zadorov on the ice. What he brings to our team is way harder to replace than what IMO all the other Ds bring to the table. Thats why if Sakic has any brains, he signs him to a longterm extension. He does not have the numbers (like Barrie does) to ask for too much money either which only makes it even more sensible.

Size Queen.

 

[Meeqs]

we are getting there slowly, but no we wont move Drouin largely because of the optics. if we do it HAS to be for a proven LD.

This is really what I find so interesting about the situation is he is in the dog house BIG time right now. Like it shouldn't be that relevant but he only played 10 minutes last night and after a huge scoring drought at the end of the year, if MTL is the team to miss would anyone really be that shocked if the was the sacrificial lamb that the team blames everything on in the offseason?

We have seen them do it to far far better players who were less deserving. That market can be completely rabid.

So at least to me the possibility of that very realistic irrational behavior that may occur due to the circumstances makes the idea of him being moved far more enticing to follow. He's probably fine until MB says "hes absolutely not moving him" then he is gone 100% haha.

 

[jfhabs]

My bad there mate. I don't particularly watch the Habs but living in Quebec (my dad is a big Habs fan) with the media they've got I guess I heard that from there that it would happen or should happen but never did. Thanks for clarifying though.

Might be wrong since I didn't double check, but let's say what I wrote was 70% accurate

 

[Meeqs]

Doesn't matter, The point is thinking the 10th OA pick is for sure better than Drouin which is not true. Drouin is a proven NHL talent and on pace for 55-60 pts this year at age 23. Proven talent like this is worth the 10th OA pick. Thinks change though when you start talking a top 5 pick.

Islanders almost traded the 11th or 12th pick for Patch (for one year with a possible extension). Drouin already has term with the current contract and is a young player who is improving.

Its a risk/benefit analysis question which is somewhat complex but really only something fans struggle with as they fear uncertainty far more than NHL front offices.

Drouin is a good young player whos value is known. He is a young top 6 offensive minded winger who puts up 50 points and is on a fair contract. Also its very uncommon for those players to develop much more than they have at the age of 23 in the NHL. So he is a safe and known asset.

For comparison though Kerfoot is a 40 point top 6 offensive minded winger who will only cost about 3m AAV on his deal and he would maybe get a 2nd rounder. Is the 10 point difference for 2 very similar players really that big of a difference?

While the pick has more risk as an asset it also has much more reward potential and teams would know the few players in that range and what their projections would look like. For example in this years draft I would take a top 8 pick of Drouin every time. However at 9-10 deciding between either Boldy/Zegras or Drouin would be an interesting one.

 

[Chiarelli]

Bowers + Col 1st?

 

[Meeqs]

Bowers + Col 1st?

Name checks out hahaha

 

[Habs Halifax]

Its a risk/benefit analysis question which is somewhat complex but really only something fans struggle with as they fear uncertainty far more than NHL front offices.

Drouin is a good young player whos value is known. He is a young top 6 offensive minded winger who puts up 50 points and is on a fair contract. Also its very uncommon for those players to develop much more than they have at the age of 23 in the NHL. So he is a safe and known asset.

For comparison though Kerfoot is a 40 point top 6 offensive minded winger who will only cost about 3m AAV on his deal and he would maybe get a 2nd rounder. Is the 10 point difference for 2 very similar players really that big of a difference?

While the pick has more risk as an asset it also has much more reward potential and teams would know the few players in that range and what their projections would look like. For example in this years draft I would take a top 8 pick of Drouin every time. However at 9-10 deciding between either Boldy/Zegras or Drouin would be an interesting one.

There is more risks of the 10th OA pick busting vs Drouin's ability to keep improving as a 23 year old. Puts up 50 pts is putting it lightly for a 23 year old. All players go through ups and downs and Drouin is showing ability to improve his points production year to year. He is just not the type to drive offense on his own so he needs help. Playing with Domi this year helped and I am curious to see how he looks if the Habs add more offensively gifted players like Domi.

1st round picks have lots of value but it comes in waives of value. Top 5, 5-10, 10-15, and 15-31 all have different value. Saying Drouin is not worth the 10th OA pick is a stretch. Proven NHL talent like Drouin has more value than you are willing to admit.

 

[Meeqs]

There is more risks of the 10th OA pick busting vs Drouin's ability to keep improving as a 23 year old. Puts up 50 pts is putting it lightly for a 23 year old. All players go through ups and downs and Drouin is showing ability to improve his points production year to year. He is just not the type to drive offense on his own so he needs help. Playing with Domi this year helped and I am curious to see how he looks if the Habs add more offensively gifted players like Domi.

1st round picks have lots of value but it comes in waives of value. Top 5, 5-10, 10-15, and 15-31 all have different value. Saying Drouin is not worth the 10th OA pick is a stretch. Proven NHL talent like Drouin has more value than you are willing to admit.

Yeah you're really pushing the limits of truth on how much you're hyping him up atm, which is starting to get inaccurate or at least dishonest.

If Drouin isn't able to drive offense on his own then he isn't a valuable player, as his offense, which is solid at 50 points but not special is his main driving benefit.

Also while its true that draft picks have aggregate value that decreases exponentially, and that all drafts have tiers, they vary by year.

Proven talent does hold a lot of clarity for its value as its pretty defined, however Drouin has proven that he isn't a player you really trade a huge haul for and plays a position that is pretty notorious for not having a lot of value relative to others. I don't disagree with some of your concepts, just that you either are underestimating the value of high draft picks or over estimating Drouins value, which currently is lower than usual due to his rough play as of late.

There are a lot of options for a team to get a player like Drouin, but the players that are available in the top 10 of each draft are usually only found there, hence why they are so very rarely moved.

 

[Hockeyholic]

Drouin for Barrie?

 

[Hasbro]

Drouin for Barrie?

 

[jfhabs]

Its a risk/benefit analysis question which is somewhat complex but really only something fans struggle with as they fear uncertainty far more than NHL front offices.

Drouin is a good young player whos value is known. He is a young top 6 offensive minded winger who puts up 50 points and is on a fair contract. Also its very uncommon for those players to develop much more than they have at the age of 23 in the NHL. So he is a safe and known asset.

For comparison though Kerfoot is a 40 point top 6 offensive minded winger who will only cost about 3m AAV on his deal and he would maybe get a 2nd rounder. Is the 10 point difference for 2 very similar players really that big of a difference?

While the pick has more risk as an asset it also has much more reward potential and teams would know the few players in that range and what their projections would look like. For example in this years draft I would take a top 8 pick of Drouin every time. However at 9-10 deciding between either Boldy/Zegras or Drouin would be an interesting one.

The 2 narratives is funny sometimes. You say that, yet so many Avs fans keep saying Zadorov has top pair potential lol
I'm not saying you are, but 23 years old is definitely not the peak for nhl players. It's from 23 to 28 for most of them.
I agree with you the top 8 or so looks strong this year, but go have a look at the last 10 years 10th picks. Rantanen is the only one I would pick ahead of Drouin, Brodin is equal or very close and all the others are either way behind or busts. Teams end up with an impact player (top6 fwd or top 4 d) around 50% of the time in that range. Drouin is clearly more valuable.
At least for the habs and in my opinion

 

[Mac Attack]

The 2 narratives is funny sometimes. You say that, yet so many Avs fans keep saying Zadorov has top pair potential lol
I'm not saying you are, but 23 years old is definitely not the peak for nhl players. It's from 23 to 28 for most of them.
I agree with you the top 8 or so looks strong this year, but go have a look at the last 10 years 10th picks. Rantanen is the only one I would pick ahead of Drouin, Brodin is equal or very close and all the others are either way behind or busts. Teams end up with an impact player (top6 fwd or top 4 d) around 50% of the time in that range. Drouin is clearly more valuable.
At least for the habs and in my opinion

I think Avs fans have come around to seeing that Z isn't going to be a top pair guy. We just like to see him crush people. But defenceman have a longer development curve than forwards. And what Drouin brings to the table is points and forwards point totals peek even earlier than the forwards overall play.

 

[Hasbro]

I think Avs fans have come around to seeing that Z isn't going to be a top pair guy. We just like to see him crush people. But defenceman have a longer development curve than forwards. And what Drouin brings to the table is points and forwards point totals peek even earlier than the forwards overall play.

I'd like to have Zad for any potential playoff match ups with the Jets.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I'd like to have Zad for any potential playoff match ups with the Jets.

*anyone. He’s the only person on the team who can remotely set the tone for a game physically.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I think Avs fans have come around to seeing that Z isn't going to be a top pair guy. We just like to see him crush people. But defenceman have a longer development curve than forwards. And what Drouin brings to the table is points and forwards point totals peek even earlier than the forwards overall play.

It's not just the big hits. The Avs are 1-8-3 this season when Zadorov hasn't been in the lineup.

 

[Hasbro]

*anyone. He’s the only person on the team who can remotely set the tone for a game physically.

Specifically the way he terrorizes Schiefle.

 

[sandysan]

This is really what I find so interesting about the situation is he is in the dog house BIG time right now. Like it shouldn't be that relevant but he only played 10 minutes last night and after a huge scoring drought at the end of the year, if MTL is the team to miss would anyone really be that shocked if the was the sacrificial lamb that the team blames everything on in the offseason?

We have seen them do it to far far better players who were less deserving. That market can be completely rabid.

So at least to me the possibility of that very realistic irrational behavior that may occur due to the circumstances makes the idea of him being moved far more enticing to follow. He's probably fine until MB says "hes absolutely not moving him" then he is gone 100% haha.

we extended him and no matter how he plays, he's still a petit gars de chez nous.

As much as he has continued to disappoint this year with lack of effort, its 100X better than when he played center. He can be a 50-60 point guy without trying ( this is being validated currently) so on a team looking for guys who wont drive a line or make their teamates better, he could be just what they are looking for.

but if we move him for scraps, its essentially waving the flag on the previous trade to acquire him. So he will continue to be uber streaky with a lot more down than up and will still get a ton of PP time where we put him on the point and out PP will continue to stink. the idea that the coach is going to hold him accountable has sailed.

unless its for a proven LD, he finishes his contract here in montreal for good or for bad.

 

[sandysan]

I dont think people should question Drouin effort. I think his determination is pretty good, as seen in the playoffs with the Lightning - he has a desire to win and more importantly to be à différence maker.

Right now he’s in a slump, but he’s also very often the first forward backchecking after a turnover - only problem is that more often than not, he’s the cause of the turnover.

He need to make better decision with the puck, and play the odd games offensively instead of trying to force dangerous play. That, and also a centre that can keep up with his creativity.

Lot of issues with him that he can work on before his ‘’determination’’ or ‘’effort’’ which are just words people use to describ a non-physical player in a slump.

that terminology fit him perfectly when he wasn't in a slump. He doesn't play defense and he still thinks he's in junior and will stickhandle INTO traffic.

he also is uber lazy with backhanders and drop passes at the offensive blue line which usually end up going the other way.

saying that lazy doesnt characterise his play, you might want to make an appointment with your optometrist. If there is anyone more lazy than drouin, I'd be surprised.

 

[jfhabs]

Specifically the way he terrorizes Schiefle.

He has 6 pts in 4 games againts the avs this year

 

[jfhabs]

It's not just the big hits. The Avs are 1-8-3 this season when Zadorov hasn't been in the lineup.

I'm sure it would've helped if he was there during these games, but I would look at your top players stats during that sequence. They are a lot more impactful then Zadorov who averages 16:59 TOI this year.