Rumor: Dreger - Teams preparing to offer sheet Leafs' Marner PTII

[Mess]

It's four years worth of 1st rounders, and I think most people would agree that the NYI success this season might be a bit of a house of cards (i.e. like the NJD last year).

Eberle, Lee, Lehner, Sbisa, Filpulla, and Nelson are all pending UFAs for them (i.e. their 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th highest scoring players + #1G). And if they offersheet Marner at ~13M, what do they have to pay Barzal whose 1st/2nd seasons in the NHL are quite a bit better than Marner's were?

Maybe the Islanders would do an offersheet, but I don't think they're a slamdunk playoff team for the next four years. I think they're much more of a bubble team that could go either way. Both their goalies are playing well above their career averages, they have no #1D, and plenty of important pending UFAs on the roster.

Where the picks end up not the biggest concern ... Going out and finding a star player to replace the loss of Tavares might be the motivating factor with this example I gave..

Who knows maybe its Laine and not AM/MM that gets the OS in the end by NYI.

But its surprising how many teams might be viable options for a OS.. NYR need a star of Broadway, Las Vegas has money and picks coming out their ears, Columbus might lose both the bread man and goalie Bob and go big fish hunting, Philly was the last team to OS Shea Weber in the past and could try it again.

While your point about not all team qualify, there are still enough out there with the means and the picks to attempt this. IMO

 

[CDN24]

Almost any team can free up the space if they feel Marner is better than assets already adding up to 10ish mil cap.
For the Leafs, could be Marleau + zaitsev, which isn't the easiest of moves but possible. Some teams have assets that cost 5+ mil that would not be hard to move, and they may feel Marner+ assets returned on 2 other players is worth the 4 picks.

Nylander + Brown = Marner. 2 Assets the Leafs could easily move if they wanted too, if they feel Marner is better than both of them combined, that's what they do, just like any other team.

I think owning all 4 of your picks is the starting point. That's harder than the cap space imo. List the teams that have all 4 picks left, and then we can talk about who can do what.

Actually only SJ does not have all 4 picks. Remember it is after July 1st so its the 2020 through 2023 1st rounders. San jose trade its 2020 pick to Ottawa. St louis has traded away its 2019 to Buffalo with the option to defer to 2020 if it is a top 10 pick. Again this would be post 2019 draft, if they chose to retain the 2019 one they might not meet. Everyone else has all their 1st round picks from 2020 onward.

 

[Bluelines]

Why would some GM willing to pay Marner or Laine or Rantanen 10mil and lose 4 1st round picks and not just sign Panarin for the same amount and not lose any picks.

Good point, Panarin has more control over where he goes and rumor is his list is very short... if you are GM that is not on Panarin's list, you default to one of the RFA's.

Has there been a list of RFA's as skilled as this years?

Mark my words, the threat of so many young talent using OS as a tool to gain leverage on the team will not sit well in the next CBA negotiations, GM's, owners, the league want to keep AAV low. I think we are going to see the league push for greater compensation for OS. Something like for every million dollars offered its a 1st rounder, $o to 1 million is 1 first rounder, 1,000,001 to 2,000,000 is 2 first rounders, make it so painful teams wont think of OS.

 

[CDN24]

Rantanen will set the ceiling for all RFAs except Matthews and maybe Point. There is no way Laine, and Marner can ask higher salary than Rantanen. Point will be a good indication of where Matthews will sign. Matthews will get more though.

That is what makes this year interesting, there are so many elite RFAs that everyone will want to wait to see what the other guy signs for. Could end up with a lot of them unsigned on July 1 eligible for the offersheet. If there is no offersheet this summer I think its safe to assume it will never be used again.

 

[GoonieFace]

Rantanen will set the ceiling for all RFAs except Matthews and maybe Point. There is no way Laine, and Marner can ask higher salary than Rantanen. Point will be a good indication of where Matthews will sign. Matthews will get more though.

Unfortunately alot of it will be based on internal contracts, so if Matthews gets $11/5yrs, Marner might ask the same.

 

[Mess]

Like I say with the Leafs, TB is in great shape. Too many good players is a good problem to have. Choose which assets you want to move for picks and prospects to get below the cap.

Teams without good players are the teams that are really in trouble going forward...

Teams without good players are the ones most likely to be considering an OS steal attempt to get theirs to avoid that very problem you point out.

Offersheets are like a modern day Robin Hood analogy of robbing from the rich and giving to the poor, one could say.

 

[Gabriel426]

It's four years worth of 1st rounders, and I think most people would agree that the NYI success this season might be a bit of a house of cards (i.e. like the NJD last year).

Eberle, Lee, Lehner, Sbisa, Filpulla, and Nelson are all pending UFAs for them (i.e. their 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th highest scoring players + #1G). And if they offersheet Marner at ~13M, what do they have to pay Barzal whose 1st/2nd seasons in the NHL are quite a bit better than Marner's were?

Maybe the Islanders would do an offersheet, but I don't think they're a slamdunk playoff team for the next four years. I think they're much more of a bubble team that could go either way. Both their goalies are playing well above their career averages, they have no #1D, and plenty of important pending UFAs on the roster.

Lou will rather use that money to sign Bob as their Goalie and have Karlsson as their 1D instead of offersheeting Marner.

IF the UFA class is crap, I might worry but this year UFA class is literally a dream come true for GM with Cap space. As there are literally a mid range 1C available, two 1Ws, a Norris Dman and the best Goalie in the league. You can literally built a playoff team if you have the cap space.

 

[Gabriel426]

Unfortunately alot of it will be based on internal contracts, so if Matthews gets $11/5yrs, Marner might ask the same.

I don't know, since if Rantanen signs for 9mil, Marner can ask for more but all Dubas needs to do is Rantanen signs for 9mil and his numbers are much better than yours and you two are both wingers.

 

[Gabriel426]

Good point, Panarin has more control over where he goes and rumor is his list is very short... if you are GM that is not on Panarin's list, you default to one of the RFA's.

Has there been a list of RFA's as skilled as this years?

Mark my words, the threat of so many young talent using OS as a tool to gain leverage on the team will not sit well in the next CBA negotiations, GM's, owners, the league want to keep AAV low. I think we are going to see the league push for greater compensation for OS. Something like for every million dollars offered its a 1st rounder, $o to 1 million is 1 first rounder, 1,000,001 to 2,000,000 is 2 first rounders, make it so painful teams wont think of OS.

Honestly, players heading into UFAs are either unwanted and priced out by their team, or they want to go to a Contenders to win a Cup, or they want more money. To say that GM which is not on Panarin's list is short thus GMs will focus on RFA as it has higher chance is false. Since RFAs can also choose where they want to sign. IF the argument is you can overpaid the RFA's own team to the point where that team can't match, won't the same logic can apply to Panarin, as long as your offer is a lot more than his list of teams can offer.

OR just cancel OS all together. OR instead of 4 1st rounders, the team that got poached the RFA has the right to choose players from the other team too.

 

[Gabriel426]

That is what makes this year interesting, there are so many elite RFAs that everyone will want to wait to see what the other guy signs for. Could end up with a lot of them unsigned on July 1 eligible for the offersheet. If there is no offersheet this summer I think its safe to assume it will never be used again.

Not just RFAs, UFAs too.

 

[DarkKnight]

Never happening. Zzzzzz.

 

[Mess]

Actually only SJ does not have all 4 picks. Remember it is after July 1st so its the 2020 through 2023 1st rounders. San jose trade its 2020 pick to Ottawa. St louis has traded away its 2019 to Buffalo with the option to defer to 2020 if it is a top 10 pick. Again this would be post 2019 draft, if they chose to retain the 2019 one they might not meet. Everyone else has all their 1st round picks from 2020 onward.

Also just for the record ... San Jose can legally reacquire their own pick back in a future trade and then would also qualify again for an OS.

Burke did this very thing for Leafs, when threatening Boston of an OS for Kessel and reacquired Leafs own formerly traded 2nd rounder to make the OS a possibility again.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Callahan has 1 year left at $5.8m cap hit $4.7M salary. That is more tradeable than Zaitsev with 5 years left.

A rich team like Mtl and Rangers both have cap space for next year. Bolts trade Callahan plus a 2nd round pick to mtl or the Rangers for a career minor leaguer. Now they can choose to pay him his 4.7M and absorb the cap hitin 19/20 or buy him out paying him $1.567M a year for 2 years with a cap hit of 2.6M in 19-20 and 1.6M the year after. Basically buying a 2nd round pick for $3M and unused cap space.

Look at Mason, Armia and a pick trade from jets to mtl last summer as an example/

Still a hard contract to move, 5.8 Mil is a lot and with a ntc oof. Good luck.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Certain players will be hard no doubt.
But they probably could move Miller+Johnson.
What about Gourde+Killorn or any combo of 2 of those 4 players?
It's not as hard as people are making out to be.

Ntc and 5.8 Mil good luck.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Good point, Panarin has more control over where he goes and rumor is his list is very short... if you are GM that is not on Panarin's list, you default to one of the RFA's.

Has there been a list of RFA's as skilled as this years?

Mark my words, the threat of so many young talent using OS as a tool to gain leverage on the team will not sit well in the next CBA negotiations, GM's, owners, the league want to keep AAV low. I think we are going to see the league push for greater compensation for OS. Something like for every million dollars offered its a 1st rounder, $o to 1 million is 1 first rounder, 1,000,001 to 2,000,000 is 2 first rounders, make it so painful teams wont think of OS.

All we've seen is the opposite of that.

It used to be 5 1sts as max compensation for RFA's.

Now it's 4.

Don't think we'll see anything above 5.

What we need is a better system with more options. RFA's can't go anywhere without drastic overpayment for mediocre talent. Mitch Marner's don't move via restricted free agency. Dustin Penner's do.

Offer sheet Marner and we'll send Nylander to your competition for picks if we're in a cap crunch. Or some other situation we have more control over.

 

[GoonieFace]

Well Nylander got 7.5, so there's that.
Really can't see Rantenen coming in at 9

If Nylander got $7mil, than Rantanen is probably worth $10mil. But Kucherov just got $9.5mil and he is better than both of them....sooooo..basically there is no rhyme or reason to alot of it.

 

[Trapper]

Also just for the record ... San Jose can legally reacquire their own pick back in a future trade and then would also qualify again for an OS.

Burke did this very thing for Leafs, when threatening Boston of an OS for Kessel and reacquired Leafs own formerly traded 2nd rounder to make the OS a possibility again.

It all comes down to who you want to keep.
Marner at 9 + Nylander 7 = 16 mil.
If I had to give Marner 10.5 + trade for a D like Pesce at 4 million = 14.5.

It would be done.

 

[Trapper]

He got paid 7.5MM average per year. It was a 45MM deal over 6 years.

Agents don’t care about the Cap.
Salary + bonus to Nylander = 45 million.
Divide by 6 years and you get 7.5.

 

[GoonieFace]

Never happening. Zzzzzz.

Most likely not, but I can see the newer waves of GM's doing it. The old boys club is slowly diminishing.

 

[DarkKnight]

Most likely not, but I can see the newer waves of GM's doing it. The old boys club is slowly diminishing.

That doesn't mean anything though. So you assume they'd be more amenable? The missing ingredient here, Marner has to sign one and I don't see it. Even if we match he's tarnished here.

 

[Jmo89]

Or ratanan.

Yep. I get it, the media has a job to do and they need stories, but the problem isn't nearly as dire as they make it out to be.

Its more problematic if both Mitch and Matthews go to July 1 because they likely can't match an overpaid offersheet for both. However, it's looking likely Matthews resigns soon.

The part that the media is leaving out is that yes, this year has a huge crop of top tier RFAs, but all those options make it an opportunity for the teams potentially being poached.

Just look at Tampa Bay and Toronto. Would it hurt to lose Point or Marner? Absolutely. But look at the roster without them. Still top tier (even moreso in Tampa's case) and now you've just handed them the most valuable currency in the NHL: 1st round picks.

Either team simply goes and signs a different RFA using their own picks and still has 1st each of the next 4 years. RFAs already signed? Well, there is even UFA options with Panarin and Karlsson.

They miss out on everyone? Well guess what, you just set up a contender with 8 first rounders for the next four years. That's some nice cheap depth in the making or the currency to pull off multiple trades.

Its much more risky for the team handing out the offer sheet.

 

[dangomon]

Agents don’t care about the Cap.
Salary + bonus to Nylander = 45 million.
Divide by 6 years and you get 7.5.

Players also don't care about the cap hit, but Nylander didn't make 45M. He forfeited months (~1/3 of his 10M salary this year) worth of salary by sitting out, which brings down his total earnings and his AAV. To make it easy let's say he lost 3M this year, that means he's making just under 42M total (salary + bonuses), divided by 6 years is 7M per year.

 

[GoonieFace]

That doesn't mean anything though. So you assume they'd be more amenable? The missing ingredient here, Marner has to sign one and I don't see it. Even if we match he's tarnished here.

I think alot of the newer school GM's would be more amenable to using the offer sheet. having a player actually sign one is another story.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Have to stop with the Willie got 7.5mil thing, he got 7mil/yr. Even he admits it, he could have signed this deal(6.96mil/yr) in the summer instead of dragging till Dec. If it wasn't for the fact that the Leafs actually have Cap room this season, he probably either be traded or still sitting in Sweden.
I can't see Rantanen coming in at 9mil either but just making example.

If he didn't sit out, that is a 7.5 contract. There is a reason his cap hit is over 10mil this year.
We can argue the schematics of the contract, but I would assume any agent using Nylander as a comparison will argue he is paid 7.5. It's also such front bonus loaded, that just off the 20+mil he has on July 1st is worth close to +1mil in just interest. Again, schematics. My bad.

I don't mint the Nylander deal. Just agent Larping.

Also never heard Willy say he could have signed the 7mil deal in the summer, would love to hear or see that quote.

 

[Blufreezy]

If a player gets offer sheeted for stupid money but they want to stay on their current team, does the player have the right to say no to the offer sheet? Or does it all come down to whether Toronto is willing to match it whether the player stays or goes?

Like

If Arizona offer sheets Matthews for 15 mill and Matthews doesn't want to play in Arizona because he won't win and wants to stay in Toronto, can Matthews say no? Or can only Dubas make the decision?