Rumor: Dreger - Teams preparing to offer sheet Leafs' Marner PTII

[Mess]

The old thread seems to have posting problems so I'm starting a new one ..

Click to read more...

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Dreger is a useful idiot and is basically tampering on behalf of other teams.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

If Marner signs a 10M+ offer sheet, bye bye Marner, hello Panarin?

 

[Peasy]

What will they talk about next year?

 

[Babcocks Marner]

The old thread seems to have posting problems so I'm starting a new one ..

Wasn't the thread mate. It's the site. I couldn't even access the main page.
I think it's the Pens/Panthers block buster trade that broke it.

 

[CDN24]

For those saying point is a bigger offersheet target

Tampa only has one highend RFA in Point. IMO the teams that are vulnerable are those with 2 (Tor with M&M) and jets with Laine and conners.

Tampa can easily free up space to ensure they keep point. Currently they have $6.3M in space. They can move callahan as a cap dump $5.8M to a rebuilding team with the money to absorb the contract or a buyout- could be the Rangers. Package him with a prospect take back something useless. Like the Jets trade of Mason to Mtl last summer. They also have a bunch of good players on good 4 to $5M contracts that they can easily trade to free up space (Killorn, Johnson, Miller) Good players but not Point good so if you have to move one to retain Point so be it.

Colorado has plenty of space to match anything on Rantenan so no one will try an offersheet.

Leafs and jets are most vulnerable to one IMO. Islanders most likely to try.

 

[Gabriel426]

This is the question, why would GM offer sheet Marner, or Rantanen or Point or any RFAs, if it probably cost the same to offer UFAs, like Stone, Panarin, Duchene, Karlsson, Skinner, Bobrovsky and even Jake, Staal and Brassard.

I mean not like any teams will offer 8mil to Marner, Rantanen or Point to expect them to sign.

If they are planning to offer the RFAs, 10-12mil and potentially lose 4 1strounders, it is actually smarter to sign Stone, Panarin, Karlsson, Skinner and Duchene for around the same price or a bit less and lose no draft picks.​

 

[Jozay]

Regardless of what happens, Leafs will still be in a great position.

Marner or significant cap space + 8 first round picks in 4 years.

The team will still be good with or without him.

 

[Mess]

Wasn't the thread mate. It's the site. I couldn't even access the main page.
I think it's the Pens/Panthers block buster trade that broke it.

It seemed every time someone posted in the old thread it would post the same thing 3 times.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

For those saying point is a bigger offersheet target

Tampa only has one highend RFA in Point. IMO the teams that are vulnerable are those with 2 (Tor with M&M) and jets with Laine and conners.

Tampa can easily free up space to ensure they keep point. Currently they have $6.3M in space. They can move callahan as a cap dump $5.8M to a rebuilding team with the money to absorb the contract or a buyout- could be the Rangers. Package him with a prospect take back something useless. Like the Jets trade of Mason to Mtl last summer. They also have a bunch of good players on good 4 to $5M contracts that they can easily trade to free up space (Killorn, Johnson, Miller) Good players but not Point good so if you have to move one to retain Point so be it.

Colorado has plenty of space to match anything on Rantenan so no one will try an offersheet.

Leafs and jets are most vulnerable to one IMO. Islanders most likely to try.

kucherovs and mcdonaghs new deals start next year. Most of the money will go towards that. I'm pretty sure Tampa is in the worse shape. They may only have one high end rfa but they have the worse financial flexibility.

 

[Gabriel426]

For those saying point is a bigger offersheet target

Tampa only has one highend RFA in Point. IMO the teams that are vulnerable are those with 2 (Tor with M&M) and jets with Laine and conners.

Tampa can easily free up space to ensure they keep point. Currently they have $6.3M in space. They can move callahan as a cap dump $5.8M to a rebuilding team with the money to absorb the contract or a buyout- could be the Rangers. Package him with a prospect take back something useless. Like the Jets trade of Mason to Mtl last summer. They also have a bunch of good players on good 4 to $5M contracts that they can easily trade to free up space (Killorn, Johnson, Miller) Good players but not Point good so if you have to move one to retain Point so be it.

Colorado has plenty of space to match anything on Rantenan so no one will try an offersheet.

Leafs and jets are most vulnerable to one IMO. Islanders most likely to try.

TB have 4 Dmen that will become UFA this off season. They need to replace them too.
Although your numbers make sense but whose to say some team won't offersheet Point 14mil, and how will TB match that.

 

[613Leafer]

A few things to keep in mind regarding offersheets for Marner/Matthews:

1) They need to have ~12-14M in capspace and internal budget limit space available. That eliminates I'd imagine ~10 teams or so (kinda hard to project because it's next years cap and everyone has UFAs and RFAs to sign).

2) If they're a bottom feeding or not a projected solid playoff team, they run a high risk of giving up multiple high 1st rounders. This group also overlaps quite a bit with the teams that tend to have available capspace. I'm sure multiple teams in this position based on a risk/reward analysis wouldn't risk this type of move.

3) Who are their own RFAs that need signing? If you sign Marner/Matthews for say ~12-14M, what do you have to sign Aho for if you're Carolina? Keller for if you're Arizona? Chabot for if you're Ottawa? etc.

4) They can't have already traded any of their 2020, 2021, 2022, or 2023 1st rounders. So we'll see who automatically gets eliminated as potential offersheet threats after the trade deadline and draft trades are done.

5) Our players have to actually sign the offersheet too. So even if all of the above factors aren't issues and a team actually submits an offersheet, the player would likely say no unless the offersheet was for a substantial increase in $$ compared to what the Leafs are offering (e.g. ~14Mish).

etc.

There's a reason why offersheets virtually never happen.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

For those saying point is a bigger offersheet target

Tampa only has one highend RFA in Point. IMO the teams that are vulnerable are those with 2 (Tor with M&M) and jets with Laine and conners.

Tampa can easily free up space to ensure they keep point. Currently they have $6.3M in space. They can move callahan as a cap dump $5.8M to a rebuilding team with the money to absorb the contract or a buyout- could be the Rangers. Package him with a prospect take back something useless. Like the Jets trade of Mason to Mtl last summer. They also have a bunch of good players on good 4 to $5M contracts that they can easily trade to free up space (Killorn, Johnson, Miller) Good players but not Point good so if you have to move one to retain Point so be it.

Colorado has plenty of space to match anything on Rantenan so no one will try an offersheet.

Leafs and jets are most vulnerable to one IMO. Islanders most likely to try.

Almost any team can free up the space if they feel Marner is better than assets already adding up to 10ish mil cap.
For the Leafs, could be Marleau + zaitsev, which isn't the easiest of moves but possible. Some teams have assets that cost 5+ mil that would not be hard to move, and they may feel Marner+ assets returned on 2 other players is worth the 4 picks.

Nylander + Brown = Marner. 2 Assets the Leafs could easily move if they wanted too, if they feel Marner is better than both of them combined, that's what they do, just like any other team.

I think owning all 4 of your picks is the starting point. That's harder than the cap space imo. List the teams that have all 4 picks left, and then we can talk about who can do what.

 

[1specter]

1. Teams who have the cap space = mostly garbage/bad teams. Four 1st rounders is too much risk for them.

2. Contending teams won't have cap space, and even if they find a way to make space it'll likely come at the cost of another piece or two on the team.

3. Marner also has to accept the offer sheet.

Not worried one bit, Marner isn't going to Carolina and Florida, and if he actually does then we'll get 4 lottery picks.

Dreger just being a typical bait boy

 

[Leafsfan13]

If Marner signs a 10M+ offer sheet, bye bye Marner, hello Panarin?

You wouldn’t sign marner to a 10m 8 year deal? I would without thinking about it

 

[CDN24]

kucherovs and mcdonaghs new deals start next year. Most of the money will go towards that. I'm pretty sure Tampa is in the worse shape. They may only have one high end rfa but they have the worse financial flexibility.

Did you read what I wrote, I explained why they are not is the worst shape and how they have flexibility. they have 6.3M of space for next year for 16 players signed (that includes mcdonough and Kucherovs new deals). They can easily free up another 10 plus from Callahan as a dump (5.8) and trade of one of the 4-5 million dollar guys.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

What will they talk about next year?

The Leafs will lose their best player to Seattle

 

[glue]

People worry wayyy too much about stuff like this. Ultimately it would be bigger loss to Marner then it would be to the Leafs. Leafs would clear a huge amount of cap space that they could use elsewhere and additionally gain 4 1st picks. Mitch on the other hand if he went elsewhere, in all likelyhood, would be going to a team that at best was average and not contendors. Staying with his hometown team and having a chance to legitimately compete for the cup for the next 5-6 years should be enticing enough for him to accept a reasonable offer to stay with the Leafs.

 

[justafan22]

Marner is a more interesting offersheet since unlike Matthews, there's a limit to which the leafs should walk away.

Unless someone is paying Matthews 12 + million, it's an automatic match

 

[justafan22]

Regardless of what happens, Leafs will still be in a great position.

Marner or significant cap space + 8 first round picks in 4 years.

The team will still be good with or without him.

The worst scenario would be someone offersheeting matthews at 10.1 million, under the 4 1sts threshold.

He'll be overpaid

 

[Gallagbi]

What will they talk about next year?

"Leafs in cap trouble after signing key RFAs. Click here to see who is likely to be moved."

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Did you read what I wrote, I explained why they are not is the worst shape and how they have flexibility. they have 6.3M of space for next year for 16 players signed (that includes mcdonough and Kucherovs new deals). They can easily free up another 10 plus from Callahan as a dump (5.8) and trade of one of the 4-5 million dollar guys.

will be hard to trade callahan, if thats the case then leafs can just trade zaitsev, problem solved for the leafs just like tampa then.

 

[Kiwi]

I love Marner, the kids been fantastic and I've got nothing but praise for his efforts on the ice

If he gets an offersheet and signs it I've got no problems if it's over 10M, I'll take the 4 1st round picks and 10M in cap space, if he doesn't want to sign an offersheet and wants to stay here long term I love that two

No matter what the Leafs will be ok, no player is bigger than the team

 

[MapleLeafs9]

You wouldn’t sign marner to a 10m 8 year deal? I would without thinking about it

Not sure if teams can offer other teams player’s more than 7 years unless that’s just for UFA’s. I love Marner, but I’m not comfortable with him making more than Kucherov. Especially considering both of their extensions kick in at the same time next season.

 

[Mess]

A few things to keep in mind regarding offersheets for Marner/Matthews:

1) They need to have ~12-14M in capspace and internal budget limit space available. That eliminates I'd imagine ~10 teams or so (kinda hard to project because it's next years cap and everyone has UFAs and RFAs to sign).

2) If they're a bottom feeding or not a projected solid playoff team, they run a high risk of giving up multiple high 1st rounders. This group also overlaps quite a bit with the teams that tend to have available capspace. I'm sure multiple teams in this position based on a risk/reward analysis wouldn't risk this type of move.

3) Who are their own RFAs that need signing? If you sign Marner/Matthews for say ~12-14M, what do you have to sign Aho for if you're Carolina? Keller for if you're Arizona? Chabot for if you're Ottawa? etc.

4) They can't have already traded any of their 2020, 2021, 2022, or 2023 1st rounders. So we'll see who automatically gets eliminated as potential offersheet threats after the trade deadline and draft trades are done.

5) Our players have to actually sign the offersheet too. So even if all of the above factors aren't issues and a team actually submits an offersheet, the player would likely say no unless the offersheet was for a substantial increase in $$ compared to what the Leafs are offering (e.g. ~14Mish).

etc.

There's a reason why offersheets virtually never happen.

Good post and all true but it only takes one team of the 30 to make this happen..

ex. NYI's and Lou Lam looking for a JT replacement will have $$31,703,334 in free cap 2019-20 and all their picks required as of now.

They're also are currently ahead of Leafs in the standings and so picks likely to be more non-risk and coming from a playoff team.

I wouldn't be surprised if NYI ownership insisted that Lou Lam take a shot at the Leafs over the JT loss where with a new building on the way want to get a franchise level player back as an act of revenge and also to sell tickets.