Rumor: Dreger - Teams preparing to offer sheet Leafs' Marner PTII

[CDN24]

TB have 4 Dmen that will become UFA this off season. They need to replace them too.
Although your numbers make sense but whose to say some team won't offersheet Point 14mil, and how will TB match that.

Really only 3 UFA d, one is buried in the minors so they will be glad to see that contract end. D will be Hedman, Mcdonough Sergachev and entry level guys probably resign Stralman to less $.

If I am going to try the offersheet route as a team I can only do one at a time as the picks are not available for a second 1 in the 1 week response period. For that reason I will target the more vulnerable. Point is probably second only to Kucherov in terms of importance. they will get an extentsion done before July 1.

 

[Jozay]

The worst scenario would be someone offersheeting matthews at 10.1 million, under the 4 1sts threshold.

He'll be overpaid

Well it sounds like Matthews will get done before July 1st.

 

[GBLeaf]

Why do I always imagine Mess humming REM's 'it's the end of the world' as he types?

 

[Leafsfan13]

Not sure if teams can offer other teams player’s more than 7 years unless that’s just for UFA’s. I love Marner, but I’m not comfortable with him making more than Kucherov. Especially considering both of their extensions kick in at the same time next season.

Are you comfortable with Matthews making McDavid money?

 

[Mess]

Why do I always imagine Mess humming REM's 'it's the end of the world' as he types?

I think your complaint is with Darren Dreger .. This is all on him, not me.

That said I've believed this might be a real possibility from the start as long as AM and MM remain unsigned.

If I were an NHL GM and I had a chance to steal a franchise #1C Matthews away for 4 X 1st round pick (particularly if those are in the range of 20-30) I'd seriously consider it, so that is why I think its plausible and something Dubas might face.

This is not the first nor last time this topic will come up as Dubas faces this question before and answered it.

Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas confident team will sign Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews to new long-term contracts

Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas remains steadfast he can sign star forwards Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews to new long-term contracts before free-agent season next summer and develop the current roster into a championship team.

Dubas, in a wide-ranging scrum with media after practice Monday, was most pointed when discussing contracts for his two young superstars. The subject of offer sheets for Matthews and Marner didn’t cause him a moment’s hesitation.

“Our salary cap situation is set up in a way that we could defend any of those threats with no worry at all,” Dubas said. “I know that they’ve become a huge topic of late, but I spend zero per cent of my time having any worry about that.”

Dubas remains confident both will be under contract by then, but if they aren’t they can be approached with an offer sheet by any NHL team and the Leafs will have the option to match the deal or receive compensation from the team that signs their player.

Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas confident team will sign Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews to new long-term contracts | The Star

 

[CDN24]

will be hard to trade callahan, if thats the case then leafs can just trade zaitsev, problem solved for the leafs just like tampa then.

Callahan has 1 year left at $5.8m cap hit $4.7M salary. That is more tradeable than Zaitsev with 5 years left.

A rich team like Mtl and Rangers both have cap space for next year. Bolts trade Callahan plus a 2nd round pick to mtl or the Rangers for a career minor leaguer. Now they can choose to pay him his 4.7M and absorb the cap hitin 19/20 or buy him out paying him $1.567M a year for 2 years with a cap hit of 2.6M in 19-20 and 1.6M the year after. Basically buying a 2nd round pick for $3M and unused cap space.

Look at Mason, Armia and a pick trade from jets to mtl last summer as an example/

 

[Peasy]

Another thing to note, giving up say 4 1st round picks is a lot more dangerous now than it was 10 years ago. If you don't make the playoffs, you have a chance no matter what at a top 3 pick. I feel like this would deter teams even more to handing out 4 of them when we know the league is so volatile.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

will be hard to trade callahan, if thats the case then leafs can just trade zaitsev, problem solved for the leafs just like tampa then.

Certain players will be hard no doubt.
But they probably could move Miller+Johnson.
What about Gourde+Killorn or any combo of 2 of those 4 players?
It's not as hard as people are making out to be.

 

[justafan22]

Well it sounds like Matthews will get done before July 1st.

*marner I meant to say.

Marner at 10.1 million is an overpay, but he's worth more than 2 1sts and a 2nd + 3rd

 

[613Leafer]

Good post and all true but it only takes one team of the 30 to make this happen..

ex. NYI's and Lou Lam looking for a JT replacement will have $$31,703,334 in free cap 2019-20 and all their picks required as of now.

They're also are currently ahead of Leafs in the standings and so picks likely to be more non-risk and coming from a playoff team.

It's four years worth of 1st rounders, and I think most people would agree that the NYI success this season might be a bit of a house of cards (i.e. like the NJD last year).

Eberle, Lee, Lehner, Sbisa, Filpulla, and Nelson are all pending UFAs for them (i.e. their 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th highest scoring players + #1G). And if they offersheet Marner at ~13M, what do they have to pay Barzal whose 1st/2nd seasons in the NHL are quite a bit better than Marner's were?

Maybe the Islanders would do an offersheet, but I don't think they're a slamdunk playoff team for the next four years. I think they're much more of a bubble team that could go either way. Both their goalies are playing well above their career averages, they have no #1D, and plenty of important pending UFAs on the roster.

 

[The Iceman]

Like I say with the Leafs, TB is in great shape. Too many good players is a good problem to have. Choose which assets you want to move for picks and prospects to get below the cap.

Teams without good players are the teams that are really in trouble going forward...

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

In some ways, it would be sort of awesome to have 8 1st round picks in the next four years.

Pretty sure this isn't happening

 

[GoonieFace]

Are you comfortable with Matthews making McDavid money?

I am certainly not, especially when you can make the argument that Marner is better than Matthews, a fact not lost on Marner.

I get the whole inflation/cap % nonsense, but seriously, how can you pay Matthews the same or more than the best player in hockey. And the deal was only signed 1.5 years ago. Its absurd.

 

[Jozay]

*marner I meant to say.

Marner at 10.1 million is an overpay, but he's worth more than 2 1sts and a 2nd + 3rd

10.1 would be 4 first round picks, unless it 5 years or less, which Marner might accept. If its 10.1 for 6 or 7 years, it would be 4 first rounders.

But 10.1 isnt high enough. The Leafs would match.

 

[Notsince67]

Marner is going to get paid. He will get a contract better than Eichel. If the cap hit is lower, it will be because he is taking less term. 9-9.5 for 6 years is what I think with a front loaded contract. Any offersheet less than 11MM will be a failure. Really hard to believe anyone will be willing to part with that kind of cash plus 4 1st round picks. Dreger is a POS. He needs to be called out if a Marner deal fails to materialize before Jul 1 and no offer sheets are presented.

 

[Bluelines]

Crazy scenario what if someone signs Mitch to a $13 mil per year and someone else signs Matthews to a $15 mil per year deal, do the Leafs match or let them walk? They walk we end up with twelve 1st round picks (4 are ours) over the next three years certainly peaks my interest.

I know it sounds crazy but what kind of team would we have in 4 years? We go dipping in the UFA pool, plus have 12 recent 1st rounders, plus Tavares, plus Nylander, plus Kapanen, plus Lilly, plus Sandin, plus Dermott, plus Rielly, plus Andersen. how does that team not become a dynasty?

It's completely crazy to even think that it is possible .... but what if?

 

[Bluelines]

10.1 would be 4 first round picks, unless it 5 years or less, which Marner might accept.

But if its 10.1 for 6 or 7 years, it would be 4 first rounders.

Yep..add another $4ok and you get your 4 firsts.

$1,339,575 or less	No compensation
$1,339,576 to $2,029,659	Third-round pick
$2,029,660 to $4,059,322	Second-round pick
$4,059,323 to $6,088,980	First and third-round picks
$6,088,981 to $8,118,641	First, second and third-round picks
$8,118,642 to $10,148,302	Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,148,302	Four first-round picks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Contenderorpretender]

Always divide by 5 if its 5 years plus. That gets you your AAV for pick compensation.

 

[Jmo89]

Take the four 1st rounders and then sign Point to 10M+.

 

[justafan22]

Yep..add another $4ok and you get your 4 firsts.

$1,339,575 or less	No compensation
$1,339,576 to $2,029,659	Third-round pick
$2,029,660 to $4,059,322	Second-round pick
$4,059,323 to $6,088,980	First and third-round picks
$6,088,981 to $8,118,641	First, second and third-round picks
$8,118,642 to $10,148,302	Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,148,302	Four first-round picks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I'd let him go at 4 1sts, even at say 10.2 million. There's a handful of players in the league that are worth that haul and he isn't one of them

 

[The Best Leafs Ever]

Leafs can always match the offer if it's a reasonable one. If we don't get 4 1st round picks, we match all offers. Worrying about this is something only a fool would do.

 

[Gabriel426]

I am certainly not, especially when you can make the argument that Marner is better than Matthews, a fact not lost on Marner.

I get the whole inflation/cap % nonsense, but seriously, how can you pay Matthews the same or more than the best player in hockey. And the deal was only signed 1.5 years ago. Its absurd.

Rantanen will set the ceiling for all RFAs except Matthews and maybe Point. There is no way Laine, and Marner can ask higher salary than Rantanen. Point will be a good indication of where Matthews will sign. Matthews will get more though.

 

[Gabriel426]

I'd let him go at 4 1sts, even at say 10.2 million. There's a handful of players in the league that are worth that haul and he isn't one of them

Why would some GM willing to pay Marner or Laine or Rantanen 10mil and lose 4 1st round picks and not just sign Panarin for the same amount and not lose any picks.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

Take the four 1st rounders and then sign Point to 10M+.

Or ratanan.

 

[Bluelines]

Leafs can always match the offer if it's a reasonable one. If we don't get 4 1st round picks, we match all offers. Worrying about this is something only a fool would do.