TSN: Dreger: JVR not expected back

[daveleaf]

He was productive before Marner got here.

You are buying production, especially on the powerplay.

But he wasn't as productive, not by much but not as productive. Looks like this year he will have maybe 37 goals, in that range. My point being, on a team without Mariner, Nylander, Mathews and his PP time will he be as productive? I'm not sure and I don't think he will have those totals if he is in Edm next year. If he wants to win a cup, continue the process he will sign here at a cap friendly number, if he wants the dough he may head to NJ, he would look good on the opposite side of Hall but I'm not buying all the hoopla that we have to sign him to a big contract and what a loss it will be. 37'ish goals is a lot but Kappy, Jonsson and a few others will get others and spread it around.

Now, if he backchecked like an animal Hossa was and still score all the goals then I would sign him to 6x7 or whatever that number is but defensively he is very suspect.

 

[kb]

Honestly, this BS argument about defensive game is getting really frustrating. Does anyone think that Ovechkin is great defensively, what about Patrick Kane. This argument was got Kessel thrown out of Toronto and then he was critical for Pittsburgh to win back to back cups.

A wingers job is to stay open for passes and score. And JVR can score pretty well. He absolutely deserves atleast a 6M. and if he doesn't come back there's gona be a very noticeable difference in our offence next season.

So JVR is in the Kane and Ovechkin stratosphere stats and talent wise?

If he could produce even close to their realm on a consistent basis, you may have actually had a valid point.

 

[Damisoph]

Love JVR and I hope they can make it work but I doubt it, and he's just not worth a 7 year $6M deal...his recent crazy production notwithstanding.

 

[LeafFever]

People went nuts on marner for a lousy October. Of course they'll get attached to JVR being red hot right now.
What occurs when he gets 8 years and then floats and stops scoring? The same people will freak-out.

 

[Gabriel426]

If the Leafs go far in the playoffs, maybe is wishful thinking, but I think any players would take less to resign with a team that has a good chance of winning the cup.

 

[LeafFever]

If the Leafs go far in the playoffs, maybe is wishful thinking, but I think any players would take less to resign with a team that has a good chance of winning the cup.

The issue is, the low cap hit will come with 8 years.

 

[darrylsittler27]

We have other issues as Winnipeg showed. If we go out in the first round management may be looking for those missing pieces. Many want Martin gone, can we even afford to trade him given our lack of size? If JVR and Bozak are average in the playoffs and we lose the first round, I can see us using that cap elsewhere. I doubt this is the finished product as we are skill heavy but lacking grit and size, thus Martin and Polak.

Please not Tampa Bay first round...urgh.

 

[Budsfan]

 

[81Leafs50]

If the Leafs were at all interested in Bozak, JVR, or Komarov they would have at least had some conversation with the players in terms of what they may be asking for on new contracts. BUT, that has not happened yet. Lou has a track record of locking up players he likes. He does not waste any time. If the Leafs wanted to keep any of the pending UFA's they would have locked them up already. Also, we know from this past offseason that the Leafs did have a trade done for Hamonic that included JVR that fell through. so connect the dots. Bozak, JVR, Komarov, Plekanec, Moore, and Polak coming off the books opens up $16.5 M in cap space. Kapanen needs a roster spot, Johnsson needs a roster spot, Leivo needs a roster spot, Martin has a permanent spot on the 4th line.

BELIEVE you me when I say this. Leafs will take a run at Tavares. Just like they made a SIGNIFICANT offer to Stamkos.

 

[ACC1224]

If the Leafs were at all interested in Bozak, JVR, or Komarov they would have at least had some conversation with the players in terms of what they may be asking for on new contracts. BUT, that has not happened yet. Lou has a track record of locking up players he likes. He does not waste any time. If the Leafs wanted to keep any of the pending UFA's they would have locked them up already. Also, we know from this past offseason that the Leafs did have a trade done for Hamonic that included JVR that fell through. so connect the dots. Bozak, JVR, Komarov, Plekanec, Moore, and Polak coming off the books opens up $16.5 M in cap space. Kapanen needs a roster spot, Johnsson needs a roster spot, Leivo needs a roster spot, Martin has a permanent spot on the 4th line.

BELIEVE you me when I say this. Leafs will take a run at Tavares. Just like they made a SIGNIFICANT offer to Stamkos.

The players have a say in that as well.

 

[BM14]

Thanks for your service, JVR.
Best of luck going forward.

 

[The CyNick]

If the Leafs were at all interested in Bozak, JVR, or Komarov they would have at least had some conversation with the players in terms of what they may be asking for on new contracts. BUT, that has not happened yet. Lou has a track record of locking up players he likes. He does not waste any time. If the Leafs wanted to keep any of the pending UFA's they would have locked them up already. Also, we know from this past offseason that the Leafs did have a trade done for Hamonic that included JVR that fell through. so connect the dots. Bozak, JVR, Komarov, Plekanec, Moore, and Polak coming off the books opens up $16.5 M in cap space. Kapanen needs a roster spot, Johnsson needs a roster spot, Leivo needs a roster spot, Martin has a permanent spot on the 4th line.

BELIEVE you me when I say this. Leafs will take a run at Tavares. Just like they made a SIGNIFICANT offer to Stamkos.

Nylander doesn't have an extension, so does that mean he's not in the plans?

My guess is both parties are fine with taking this to July 1st.

JVR probably wants to stay, but he also realizes this is likely his last shot at a huge payday. There are pressures from the PA to not undercut the market by taking huge discounts. If a team offers him $7M x 7 and the Leafs are at $6M x 5, he has to leave.

On the flip side, I'm sure Lou would like to keep the player on a 4-5 year deal. But he's unlikely to jump on that in the middle of a career year.

I do agree Tavares is an issue here that complicates matters. JT is the type of player that almost never legitimately hits the UFA market. If you're the Leafs, you have to leave yourself as much wiggle room as possible in case he wants to play here. If he doesn't, then you have to look at options related to a guy like JVR.

Ultimately my assumption is JVR will get an offer he can't refuse from another team and JT will sign somewhere else. But who knows how things will shake out.

 

[Legendary]

I was ok with getting nothing for him at the deadline and using him for this playoff push. But I won’t be ok with them signing him to a bad contract. Guy is a lazy floater and always will be. Let’s use him while he’s hot and wash our hands after the playoffs are done.

 

[Boutette]

There are pressures from the PA to not undercut the market by taking huge discounts.

The only thing that should matter to the players association is that as many teams as possible are as close to the top of the cap. Lower top end salaries means the majority of players on the low end get an overall raise. That's the idea of an 'association', the fact that the benefit of the many should outweigh the benefit of the very few. So really, massive overpayments to UFAs actually hurts the general membership by depressing the earnings of the rest of the players in the league.

 

[Menzinger]

The only thing that should matter to the players association is that as many teams as possible are as close to the top of the cap. Lower top end salaries means the majority of players on the low end get an overall raise. That's the idea of an 'association', the fact that the benefit of the many should outweigh the benefit of the very few. So really, massive overpayments to UFAs actually hurts the general membership by depressing the earnings of the rest of the players in the league.

There’s indeed a fair case to be made that high priced UFAs certainly hurt the bulk of he “middle tier” talents earnings, but everything you read in the media is the PA likes to see big money deal and actively pushes players to seek them

 

[cannucky]

the math guys are ignoring Cowan , Lupul , Gleason, Marincin , theres another 7.75 million in free cap space , If we keep Martin {2.5} we still end up under the cap by 22million plus .We should be able to sign Holl, Johnsson , Carrick for a million each +/- 250k , that leaves Nylander , Bozo , JVR and 21 million I look to do a Kadri deal with all three leaving 4-6 million and if they say no then fine Bye Bye but this is a younger mans league and every year lately several middle aged vets end up on the outside looking in , Bozo and JVR have to recognize this could be their fate in a salary cap league .

 

[81Leafs50]

Nylander doesn't have an extension, so does that mean he's not in the plans?

My guess is both parties are fine with taking this to July 1st.

JVR probably wants to stay, but he also realizes this is likely his last shot at a huge payday. There are pressures from the PA to not undercut the market by taking huge discounts. If a team offers him $7M x 7 and the Leafs are at $6M x 5, he has to leave.

On the flip side, I'm sure Lou would like to keep the player on a 4-5 year deal. But he's unlikely to jump on that in the middle of a career year.

I do agree Tavares is an issue here that complicates matters. JT is the type of player that almost never legitimately hits the UFA market. If you're the Leafs, you have to leave yourself as much wiggle room as possible in case he wants to play here. If he doesn't, then you have to look at options related to a guy like JVR.

Ultimately my assumption is JVR will get an offer he can't refuse from another team and JT will sign somewhere else. But who knows how things will shake out.

Nylander is an RFA so there is zero urgency to do anything.

JVR's free agency situation has nothing to do with the NHLPA. The PA has seen players chase money, SUCK and then have to be moved/waived/demoted to minors. So they are definitely NOT wanting to see playing careers end due to one bad contract where the player gets too much money. The PA needs more members and successful ones.

JVR's best comparable is T.J. Oshie at 8 yrs and $5.25M. SO NO JVR is NOT a $7mill player.

 

[81Leafs50]

The players have a say in that as well.

All of the Leafs UFA's have gone on record to say that they WANT to stay. They also said a discount is possible as well. With all that said, the Leafs management has yet to contact any of them. You tell me what that means.

 

[cannucky]

it means when you have an over abundance of quality players you can wait until the season is over and deal from a position of strength instead of desperately signing them mid season and hoping they won't fall off after . Make em do the full job full time then decide who we should be moving forward with and who we should be moving on from .

 

[Martin Skoula]

Nylander doesn't have an extension, so does that mean he's not in the plans?

My guess is both parties are fine with taking this to July 1st.

JVR probably wants to stay, but he also realizes this is likely his last shot at a huge payday. There are pressures from the PA to not undercut the market by taking huge discounts. If a team offers him $7M x 7 and the Leafs are at $6M x 5, he has to leave.

On the flip side, I'm sure Lou would like to keep the player on a 4-5 year deal. But he's unlikely to jump on that in the middle of a career year.

I do agree Tavares is an issue here that complicates matters. JT is the type of player that almost never legitimately hits the UFA market. If you're the Leafs, you have to leave yourself as much wiggle room as possible in case he wants to play here. If he doesn't, then you have to look at options related to a guy like JVR.

Ultimately my assumption is JVR will get an offer he can't refuse from another team and JT will sign somewhere else. But who knows how things will shake out.

So you must think the Leafs offered Stamkos less than 8.5 per year then right?

 

[Boutette]

Nylander is an RFA so there is zero urgency to do anything.

JVR's free agency situation has nothing to do with the NHLPA. The PA has seen players chase money, SUCK and then have to be moved/waived/demoted to minors. So they are definitely NOT wanting to see playing careers end due to one bad contract where the player gets too much money. The PA needs more members and successful ones.

JVR's best comparable is T.J. Oshie at 8 yrs and $5.25M. SO NO JVR is NOT a $7mill player.

T.J. Oshie's cap is *$5.75* mil and he's come close to or over 30 goals or more in a season once and was 2 years older than JvR when he signed (so 3 years of his contract is for when he's 35+ . JvR on the other hand, as many here are wontto state, is a guaranteed 30-30 player who is sniffing 40 goals this year, so a seven year contract will take him only to *35*. I don't think 7x7 is so out of the question when you look at the facts instead of making them up.

 

[81Leafs50]

T.J. Oshie's cap is *$5.75* mil and he's come close to or over 30 goals or more in a season once and was 2 years older than JvR when he signed (so 3 years of his contract is for when he's 35+ . JvR on the other hand, as many here are wontto state, is a guaranteed 30-30 player who is sniffing 40 goals this year, so a seven year contract will take him only to *35*. I don't think 7x7 is so out of the question when you look at the facts instead of making them up.

Listen I like JVR. He is a great PP specialist. Even though he is limited 5on5 and cannot kill penalties and is a defensive liability.

BUT I think fans in Toronto are over hyping JVR a little bit. Lets take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

JVR has been in the NHL 9 years. His best season is THIS year goal wise. Before this season his best goal total was 30 goals. He's never scored more than 30 goals in his NHL career before this season. One 30 goal season doesnt make you a 30 goal scorer since he had never repeated it. With 2 games left I doubt he will hot 40 goals, SO LETS NOT CALL HIM A 40 GOAL GUY! cause hes not. He's barely a 30 goal scorer. No team will dish out 7M or more for 1 good season.

TJ OSHIE Career numbers: 664 games, 187 goals, 276 assists, 463 pts = 0.697 pts per game, .28 goals per game
JVR Career numbers: 607 games, 201 goals, 192 assists, 393 pts = 0.647 pts per game, .33 goals per game

 

[LeafFever]

That TJ Oshie contract is anightmare. The Capitals were crazy giving him 8 years. He already went over 30 games without a goal this year in year 1 and he'll be 32 soon.
Leaf fans are all about this week I find. Do people think Kapanen can't do better? He has ridiculous talent for a guy on the 4th line. The Leafs have the talent to make up for a loss of a 30 goal scorer.
The moment JVR starts to struggle next year the same people wanting him back will do a 180 and panic.

 

[Boutette]

Listen I like JVR. He is a great PP specialist. Even though he is limited 5on5 and cannot kill penalties and is a defensive liability.

BUT I think fans in Toronto are over hyping JVR a little bit. Lets take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

JVR has been in the NHL 9 years. His best season is THIS year goal wise. Before this season his best goal total was 30 goals. He's never scored more than 30 goals in his NHL career before this season. One 30 goal season doesnt make you a 30 goal scorer since he had never repeated it. With 2 games left I doubt he will hot 40 goals, SO LETS NOT CALL HIM A 40 GOAL GUY! cause hes not. He's barely a 30 goal scorer. No team will dish out 7M or more for 1 good season.

TJ OSHIE Career numbers: 664 games, 187 goals, 276 assists, 463 pts = 0.697 pts per game, .28 goals per game
JVR Career numbers: 607 games, 201 goals, 192 assists, 393 pts = 0.647 pts per game, .33 goals per game

If you've read anything I've posted, you'll know I am the first person to show JvR the door, regardless of his production this year. But it is what it is. The facts remain that JvR will make notably more than Oshie on the open market because he is years younger than Oshie, a 7 year contract would end when he's only 35 and not 38, and he's having a career year on his UFA season that pushes him into the top 15 in the league in goals scored. I never said $7mil isn't an overpayment. I know it is. I'm saying that its quite possible that someone will pay it anyway. It would hardly be the first time a GM overpaid on a UFA contract, would it?

 

[Semantics]

That TJ Oshie contract is anightmare. The Capitals were crazy giving him 8 years. He already went over 30 games without a goal this year in year 1 and he'll be 32 soon.
Leaf fans are all about this week I find. Do people think Kapanen can't do better? He has ridiculous talent for a guy on the 4th line. The Leafs have the talent to make up for a loss of a 30 goal scorer.
The moment JVR starts to struggle next year the same people wanting him back will do a 180 and panic.

Totally agree, let's summarize the reality yet again:

• JVR is a 30 goal scorer. His shooting percentage this year is an aberration. If it weren't for that he's at ~30 goals.
• It's not a stretch to think Kapanen or Johnsson in that role could score 20. Connor Brown had 20.
• Kapanen and Johnsson are way better at driving the play, way better defensively, way better at puck recovery.
• JVR turns 29 years old in a month. Players start to decline rapidly at that age, especially when they have bad feet. Chances are he's little more than a PP specialist in a couple of years.
• The NHL is a fast man's game now, it's all about the young legs.
• Nazem Kadri is on a 4.5M x 6 deal, and is more valuable to this team than JVR.

Fact of the matter is that JVR is at most a marginal upgrade over other players we have on the roster at this point in time, let alone next year, let alone several years from now into a long-term contract.

The whole point of the "program" the Leafs are trying to build is to have the pipeline to replace players like JVR from within the organization. It sucks to lose JVR for nothing, but at his age, I wouldn't even think about re-signing him unless it was for a huge bargain (at most $5M x 5, front-loaded so he's easy to trade a few years in).