Name a recent player who put up 3 straight 40+ goal pace seasons, and 2 PPG+ seasons on his ELC that didn't get a massive 2nd contract. Or another player who had 68 assists in the last year of his ELC, 4th most in the NHL that season, and 94 points overall (11th best), while getting Selke votes, that didn't get a massive payday. Weird how the guys who put up the best ELC seasons got paid the most, and had the most leverage to get to UFA sooner.
And, yes, every competent agent on this planet should absolutely be willing to demand a trade if the situation warrants it. But, I believe the threat of their client holding out and/or refusing to play for a team for longer than the 4 RFA years they're entitled to is just as effective as leverage, so there's no reason to go that hard in what should be basic contract negotiations.
On that topic, who really cares where Marner grew up or wants to play when it comes to contract negotiations? He has an agent who exists solely to represent him in business deals so he gets the best contracts possible. And the NHLPA wants him to get the best contract possible to help keep the league's long term revenue sharing obligations in line with projections for future revenue. But you think he should just take a discounted AAV because his childhood team wants him to?
But, you're right, negotiations are give and take. This is why my question is - what do you give Matthews to accept not having trade protections and taking less money on a 5 year contract? What do you take away if he refuses to sign your dream contract, preferring something that benefits him more? Are you really going to force your star youngster to hold out because you want a better contract? Risk pissing him off to the point where he's gone the second he hits UFA? Or would it be smarter for long term success to take the players dream contract and whittle away at the areas where you can to try to find a final deal you can both live with, keeping him happy enough to stay on your team for life?
Rantanen had a better resume than Marner and got 1.7 mill less despite signing after marner (meaning he was able to use the Marner deal as a baseline). There's for example a reason Jamar Chase in the NFL is waiting for Jeffersson to sign. Because he wants to use that deal as a baseline. But the Marner deal was so outrageous of an overpay, even Rantanen's agent couldn't use it as a comp.
Here's a list of RFA wingers to get more than 9.5 million dollars: Mitch Marner.
Are you telling me Mitch Marner, with significantly less leverage, because he's 4 years away from UFA and not even arbitration eligible, had any logic to get. Was someone gonna come and offer 11 mill a year and 4 unprotected 1sts to take him away? Nope.
1.4 mill than Nikita Kucherov did coming off back to back 40 goal 100 point seasons?
1.4 mill more than Matthew Tkachuk did coming off a 40 goal 105 point season?
1.7 mill more than Rantanen got?
Marner at 9.5 millx8 years wouldn't have been a discount. It would have been comparable to what NIKITA KUCHEROV got.
While only buying TWO of his UFA years.
"Keeping him happy enough to stay on your team for life". No, they kept him happy enough to stay on their team 1 year past when they already owned his rights at a massive salary while giving him all the leverage in the next negotiations (which he used), and the power to leave for free if he so chooses with you not being able to do a thing about it.
In terms of Give and Take on matthews:
If you're going to cave and give him 11.6 mill a year as a first time RFA, you better get 8 years. Simple as that.
If Matthews isn't willing to cave on term, then he gets LESS on AAV.\
They caved on term. They caved on AAV. They caved on trade protections. They even caved and gave him it in signing bonuses just to make it even sweeter for him. Caving on every single point isn't negotiating.
Every other RFA ever has also had the same leverage to demand a trade if they want. Marner as a hometown kid would be much less likely to actually want a trade. And yet no other RFA winger has ever gotten a contract even close to Marner's. Massive overpay