Value of: Draisaitl Revisited

[VivaLasVegas]

Hypothetically assume that you are a GM of any team other than the Oilers and operating under three conditions:

(1) Leon is a free agent and you are in talks with his agent;

(2) Leon will come to your team, but he wants an 8-year contract and a NMC; and

(3) You have up to $20 million in Cap space to work with, but you do have some other needs and so can't go crazy on a single player but need the best deal that you can get.

Question: Under those conditions, how much (if anything) would you offer Leon's agent and what is the absolute most that you would pay?

Alternate Question: Just how much is Leon really worth on a pure cash basis for an 8x NMC deal in the abstract?

If you are an Oilers fan, what is the most that the Oilers should pay Leon for an 8x NMC deal?

Click to read more...

 

[pth2]

A contract from years 29 to 37 ? With a full NMC?

Ouch. Whoever signs this had better be right in their window, and accepts that this will turn into an anchor contract in 3-4 years and be a huge anchor at the end.

 

[PuckG]

A contract from years 29 to 37 ? With a full NMC?

Ouch. Whoever signs this had better be right in their window, and accepts that this will turn into an anchor contract in 3-4 years and be a huge anchor at the end.

A lot of Leon’s strengths are things that should age relatively well. His passing, IQ, size/strength, vision and quick release shouldn’t take too much of a hit into his mid 30s and he’s never been known as a speedster.

I don’t think it’ll be as bad as you’re suggesting.

 

[Legion34]

13.5x8 probably?

 

[Baksfamous112]

Most he could sign if he goes to FA is 7 years. With that being said, I would do 12x7 here from Montreal and figure out the rest later

 

[pth2]

A lot of Leon’s strengths are things that should age relatively well. His passing, IQ, size/strength, vision and quick release shouldn’t take too much of a hit into his mid 30s and he’s never been known as a speedster.

I don’t think it’ll be as bad as you’re suggesting.

Then again, if he loses any measure of speed, he'll be in trouble real fast...

 

[LTIR]

Then again, if he loses any measure of speed, he'll be in trouble real fast...

Not really.. like the person you quoted said, Drai doesn't need speed to be productive. If/when McDavid however loses a step he is done since speed is his calling card.

 

[Fourier]

Then again, if he loses any measure of speed, he'll be in trouble real fast...

Why is that? He is a lot faster than many believe but away from McDavid his game tends to be more about slowing down the play rather than speed dependent.

 

[captainpaxil]

It depends alot on how you feel about the Tavares deal. Drai is a premier player but a huge salary like that can really handicap your depth on the back end. 11.5 would be about right to me

 

[missionAvs]

It depends alot on how you feel about the Tavares deal. Drai is a premier player but a huge salary like that can really handicap your depth on the back end. 11.5 would be about right to me

There's just no way 11.5 is the number for Drai. It starts with a 12 at the minimum and 13 wouldn't shock me.

 

[BKarchitect]

It depends alot on how you feel about the Tavares deal. Drai is a premier player but a huge salary like that can really handicap your depth on the back end. 11.5 would be about right to me

$11.5 million is completely unrealistic.

Tavares was making 13.84% of the cap when he signed. Drai won't be on his new deal until 25-26, with the cap projected at or above $92 million. That means just to get to that same % of cap, he's making $13 million per year.

In the 3 seasons leading up to his contract, Tavares was 16th in the NHL in scoring.

Draisatl is 4th in the NHL in scoring these last two seasons with little reason to believe any kind of drop-off is coming next year, his pre-UFA year.

Draisatl would probably have to make $14+ million or have a steep decline between now and the summer of 2025 while still getting $13+ to have the same kind of roster effect on his new team that the JT contract had for Toronto.

 

[BKarchitect]

Then again, if he loses any measure of speed, he'll be in trouble real fast...

I think the exact opposite. This isn't a defender who has to use four-way mobility and speed to anticipate movements of opposing players. Drai has a huge reach and huge stick. He could barely move in the 2022 playoffs after he got injured against the Kings and still ended up with 32 points in 16 games because even stationary, he covers a huge amount of ice and he's a genius offensive player.

He's never really cared about defense anyways, that's just not his game. I think he's going to be a monster producer well into his mid-30's. He has the ultimate "old man" hockey game and like a lot of big forwards, his effectiveness in the offensive third of the ice and on the PP isn't really driven by his speed.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Calgary: “fool me once..”

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Well, if he's a free agent, he's not getting 8 from any team.

For the Habs I'd offer 13.5-14 for 7 years.

Getting a NMC use to mean taking less, but teams and/or players aren't in it for that anymore, so him wanting a NMC reduce the cost by f*** all.

 

[Djp]

A lot of Leon’s strengths are things that should age relatively well. His passing, IQ, size/strength, vision and quick release shouldn’t take too much of a hit into his mid 30s and he’s never been known as a speedster.

I don’t think it’ll be as bad as you’re suggesting.

It’s an almost certainty that he won’t be worth thr contract in his last 3 yrs of it

 

[McShogun99]

Then again, if he loses any measure of speed, he'll be in trouble real fast...

He got 17 points in 5 games playing on 1 leg against Calgary after he suffered a high ankle sprain at the end of the previous round.

 

[McShogun99]

Not really.. like the person you quoted said, Drai doesn't need speed to be productive. If/when McDavid however loses a step he is done since speed is his calling card.

We've been watching an injured Mcdavid all season. His speed, stickhandling and shot are all off compared to previous seasons and he's still challenging for the scoring lead. Elite players like Mcdavid, Crosby, Ovi etc have such high hockey IQ that they find ways to contribute when other things aren't working for them.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Draisatl is a fantastic player, still a top 5 players currently in the NHL for me

But I wouldn't make an offer for 8 years, as a Habs fan

 

[molon labe]

Next deal starts at 30?

Gonna be 7 x 13-14 if all things remain the same with regard to performance.

Cap going up and if he hits UFA someone will pay it. Maybe EDM keeps him for 8 by 12 something but that's just how it's going to be. You're paying for a few years of top performance and holding your nose at the final bit.

 

[TheBeard]

The dude is good. Everyone is saying he’s having a down year which speaks volumes about how good he is considering he’s on the cusp of his 5th straight 100 point season (excluding the 56 season where he only had 85 points). Dude is a 13 a year player but only for the right team.

 

[I am Bettman]

Bruins have lots of cap space next year, just saying….

 

[wintersej]

$11.5 million is completely unrealistic.

Tavares was making 13.84% of the cap when he signed. Drai won't be on his new deal until 25-26, with the cap projected at or above $92 million. That means just to get to that same % of cap, he's making $13 million per year.

In the 3 seasons leading up to his contract, Tavares was 16th in the NHL in scoring.

Draisatl is 4th in the NHL in scoring these last two seasons with little reason to believe any kind of drop-off is coming next year, his pre-UFA year.

Draisatl would probably have to make $14+ million or have a steep decline between now and the summer of 2025 while still getting $13+ to have the same kind of roster effect on his new team that the JT contract had for Toronto.

Not only that, but the Sharks were offering $13m back then for Tavares. That's $15m on a 92m cap. And you might think that a $15m is crazy. I would counter that when the Bruins signed Chara as a UFA, he was at 17% of the cap, which would be $15.6m. Elite guys that go to market get paaaiiiiddd.

As far as the OP goes, I could see Boston riding Drai + Pasta + defense + goaltending and offering him a contract like that.

 

[pth2]

Not really.. like the person you quoted said, Drai doesn't need speed to be productive. If/when McDavid however loses a step he is done since speed is his calling card.

Fair enough. I also don't know his reputation in terms of conditioning, which can have a major impact in terms of aging.

Biggest impact is how a deal would be 7, not 8 years, so that removes the worst anchor year.

That said, the biggest variable would be cap evolution over the next years, which ties into inflation projections for close to a decade ahead. 100M over 7 years might well be possible.

 

[McJedi]

There's just no way 11.5 is the number for Drai. It starts with a 12 at the minimum and 13 wouldn't shock me.

Drai will probably start with a $14.something. He’ll be the highest paid NHL player until McDavid signs as a UFA.

He took a huge discount on his last deal. Assume he swings for the fences this time.

 

[Three On Zero]

12.5-13.5, buyer beware