Draisaitl + Nurse vs Monahan + Hanifin

[Fourier]

Draisaitl's most common linemate was still, for the second straight year, the Art Ross winning Connor McDavid. Not sure how you can definitively claim that Gaudreau inflates Monahan's stats more than McDavid inflates Draisaitl's. They both benefit from playing with elite players, how much is kind of hard to quantify. Draisaitl certainly benefited to the tune of 68 million dollars after one great season playing wing for McJesus.

As far as being big 2 way Cs I don't think either player has got there yet and have more room to grow.

Over the last two years Draisaitl has played 1165 minutes at ES away from McDavid. He has 14 goals and 44 points for 2.27 pts/60. Over the last two years Monahan has played 450 Es minutes away from Gaudreau . He has 6 goals and 13 points for 1.73 pts/60.

Monahan with Gaudreau is 2.4 pts/60 which is slightly higher than Draisaitl away from McDavid. But the gap between the two when not playing with Gaudreau or McDavid respectively is much larger.

I followed Monahan fairly closely for two years in Ottawa. He was the guy I badly wanted to get in that draft. I actually think he has surpassed by expectations by quite a bit offensively though his two-way game is not where I expected. But individually he is not on Draisaitl's level and I suspect that as time passes the gap increases.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Extremely easily Oilers duo

 

[Chef de Cuisine]

Give me the center who is going to be elite for a long time. Draisaitl + Nurse, not close.

 

[Volica]

Monahan and Draisaitl are fairly similar; I think both guys are complimentary stars versus true elite NHL'ers.
Without their Batman on their line, I think they're both 50-55 point centres (if Drai's used at centre).

Hanifin is a debatably better Dman than Nurse today. More minutes, better numbers, less dumb; and 2 years younger.

In two years Hanifin will be miles ahead of where Nurse is currently. That's not even a question to me.

I go:
Drai > Monahan
Hanifin >> Nurse

 

[Wayne Primeau]

Heh, I forgot that on HF Monahan is a second-line centre.

Anyway, I homer voted for the Flames.

 

[KlefDown]

homer vote Drai + Nurse

 

[Fourier]

Monahan and Draisaitl are fairly similar; I think both guys are complimentary stars versus true elite NHL'ers.
Without their Batman on their line, I think they're both 50-55 point centres (if Drai's used at centre).

Hanifin is a debatably better Dman than Nurse today. More minutes, better numbers, less dumb; and 2 years younger.

In two years Hanifin will be miles ahead of where Nurse is currently. That's not even a question to me.

I go:
Drai > Monahan
Hanifin >> Nurse

Once you stated that Hanifin plays more minutes I think your post went off the rails. Nurse averaged 22:15 per game (51st) last year to Hanifin's 18:52 (125th). At ES the numbers are Nurse 19:32( 19th) vs Hanifan 16:59 (110th).

 

[Volica]

Once you stated that Hanifin plays more minutes I think your post went off the rails. Nurse averaged 22:15 per game (51st) last year to Hanifin's 18:52 (125th). At ES the numbers are Nurse 19:32( 19th) vs Hanifan 16:59 (110th).

Haha, I actually looked at 2016-17 defaults for some reason.
Still stand by my point. They're comparable Dmen right now, and one guy's 2 years younger with better pedigree. I fancy him a lot more.

 

[McFlyingV]

Monahan and Draisaitl are fairly similar; I think both guys are complimentary stars versus true elite NHL'ers.
Without their Batman on their line, I think they're both 50-55 point centres (if Drai's used at centre).

Hanifin is a debatably better Dman than Nurse today. More minutes, better numbers, less dumb; and 2 years younger.

In two years Hanifin will be miles ahead of where Nurse is currently. That's not even a question to me.

I go:
Drai > Monahan
Hanifin >> Nurse

There's just no logical basis to back up the bolded given their production and usage with and without their batman. They're basically a wash the past two seasons on the PP. If you take their ES production away from their 'batman' and kept their TOI the same Draisaitl would still have produced 94 ES points over 160 games to Monahan's 65 ES points in 156 games. Add their PP production in and you're looking at 132P in 160 GP for Drai vs. 101P in 156 GP for Monahan. Convert that to an 82 game pace and Drai is still a 68P player to Monahan a 53 point player.

So I suppose you're half right. Monahan is a 50-55 point centre on his own.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

There are no stats to backup that Hanifin was better than Nurse last year.

He was sheltered and still bled goals against at an alarming rate.

Does he have a good chance to be better in the coming years? Yes, absolutely.

 

[Aceboogie]

Nurse was unquestionably better than Hanifin last year. Not sure how anyone can debate that. But Hanifin is still 3 years younger and has higher upside, hes also ahead of Nurse at the same age.

 

[Lemontree]

I went with the Flames duo. I like Monahan as a C better than Draisaitl. LD is the more talented player however so far in his career I haven’t been impressed with his ability to play C or drive offence without McDavid and yes Oiler fans, I’m aware Monahan plays attached to Gaudreau’s hip. I haven’t watched much of Hanifin in the NHL as of yet but if the pre draft scouting was correct then he still should have a lot of untapped potential.

 

[Snakepit]

Heh, I forgot that on HF Monahan is a second-line centre.

Anyway, I homer voted for the Flames.

It is always interesting to see people pretend that Monahan doesn't play just as well when Gaudreau is injured than when they're together. Like having skilled linemates is some sort of knock against him like it's a Setuguchi playing with Thornton type situation

The difference between Draisatl and Monahan last year was literally 6 points, with Draisatl playing 4 more games, and Monahan getting hand freezing injections before every game in the new year. So lets all stop pretending this poll is Draisatl vs Lindholm or something

Nurse and Hanifin I'll admit to not having watched much of either of them to really have an opinion there

 

[Volica]

There's just no logical basis to back up the bolded given their production and usage with and without their batman. They're basically a wash the past two seasons on the PP. If you take their ES production away from their 'batman' and kept their TOI the same Draisaitl would still have produced 94 ES points over 160 games to Monahan's 65 ES points in 156 games. Add their PP production in and you're looking at 132P in 160 GP for Drai vs. 101P in 156 GP for Monahan. Convert that to an 82 game pace and Drai is still a 68P player to Monahan a 53 point player.

So I suppose you're half right. Monahan is a 50-55 point centre on his own.

My issue with that, is Monahan almost exclusively plays with Johnny. Using stats when they’re away from their main line mate is more or less line changes (playing defence) or a game here or there.

You can’t use those type of analysis. You’re talking about 80 minutes a season away from Gaudreau 5v5 a year for Monahan. That’s all line change type situations lol.

 

[super6646]

There are no stats to backup that Hanifin was better than Nurse last year.

He was sheltered and still bled goals against at an alarming rate.

Does he have a good chance to be better in the coming years? Yes, absolutely.

He also had a 95.8 PDO and an on ice SV% of 89.1...

Can't really blame that on Hanifin.

 

[super6646]

Doesn't Draisatl play a large amount of time at the wing (most common linemate is Mcdavid). In that case, shouldn't it be Gaudreau vs Draisatl?

Over the last two years Draisaitl has played 1165 minutes at ES away from McDavid. He has 14 goals and 44 points for 2.27 pts/60. Over the last two years Monahan has played 450 Es minutes away from Gaudreau . He has 6 goals and 13 points for 1.73 pts/60.

Monahan with Gaudreau is 2.4 pts/60 which is slightly higher than Draisaitl away from McDavid. But the gap between the two when not playing with Gaudreau or McDavid respectively is much larger.

I followed Monahan fairly closely for two years in Ottawa. He was the guy I badly wanted to get in that draft. I actually think he has surpassed by expectations by quite a bit offensively though his two-way game is not where I expected. But individually he is not on Draisaitl's level and I suspect that as time passes the gap increases.

In that case, Draisatl averages around 0.68 PPG assuming he plays 18 minutes a night as the #2 center. That puts him at a 56 point pace on a yearly basis (assuming he plays 82 games). Monahan got 63 with a frozen wrist and numerous other injuries...

I'll take Monahan and Hanifin.

 

[McFlyingV]

Doesn't Draisatl play a large amount of time at the wing (most common linemate is Mcdavid). In that case, shouldn't it be Gaudreau vs Draisatl?



In that case, Draisatl averages around 0.68 PPG assuming he plays 18 minutes a night as the #2 center. That puts him at a 56 point pace on a yearly basis (assuming he plays 82 games). Monahan got 63 with a frozen wrist and numerous other injuries...

I'll take Monahan and Hanifin.

Did you just decide to remove the power play for some reason? Why not remove Monahan's PP points in that case.

 

[McFlyingV]

My issue with that, is Monahan almost exclusively plays with Johnny. Using stats when they’re away from their main line mate is more or less line changes (playing defence) or a game here or there.

You can’t use those type of analysis. You’re talking about 80 minutes a season away from Gaudreau 5v5 a year for Monahan. That’s all line change type situations lol.

Sure, but we also know that Draisaitl produces more points playing half the year away from McDavid. We also know Drai scores just below Monahan's pace with Gaudreau when he's playing with a mixture of garbage wingers.

Anyway you slice it Draisaitl comes out ahead by a large margin.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Sure, but we also know that Draisaitl produces more points playing half the year away from McDavid. We also know Drai scores just below Monahan's pace with Gaudreau when he's playing with a mixture of garbage wingers.

Anyway you slice it Draisaitl comes out ahead by a large margin.

That margin was 6 points this year with more games played and without needing to be shut down for several surgeries that had been apparently nagging him for months. I'm fine with saying Draisaitl is the more talented player, but I don't think that gap is all that big, or that he's worth 2.2 million more. Isn't 14 goals and 44 points over two years when not played with McDavid as an 8.5 million dollar center concerning? Say the Oilers never lotto lucked their way into Connor and the 1C job was up to him, would he still have two 70 pt seasons?

You can't say he just gets garbage wingers when most commonly he's still the winger for the best player in the world. They also play both special teams basically exclusively together.

 

[McFlyingV]

That margin was 6 points this year with more games played and without needing to be shut down for several surgeries that had been apparently nagging him for months. I'm fine with saying Draisaitl is the more talented player, but I don't think that gap is all that big, or that he's worth 2.2 million more. Isn't 14 goals and 44 points over two years when not played with McDavid as an 8.5 million dollar center concerning? Say the Oilers never lotto lucked their way into Connor and the 1C job was up to him, would he still have two 70 pt seasons?

You can't say he just gets garbage wingers when most commonly he's still the winger for the best player in the world. They also play both special teams basically exclusively together.

Or look at the past two seasons and see he's outscored Monahan significantly, despite being a year younger.

Again, do you guys not understand the stat that was posted? The 14 goals and 44 points away from McDavid are even strength, and don't even account for a full season worth of even strength minutes. He scores at 0.13P/60 less than Monahan when he's away from McDavid, and Monahan needs Gaudreau to put up those numbers. I guarantee Monahan would never break 60 points if he spent that much time away from Gaudreau in a season.

Of course I can say he gets garbage wingers when he's not with McDavid, and the fact that he still scores similar to Monahan with those garbage wingers makes this argument laughable. Go look at his ice time with wingers on the team. Of course they both play special teams together, thats a common theme on every single team in the NHL.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Or look at the past two seasons and see he's outscored Monahan significantly, despite being a year younger.

Again, do you guys not understand the stat that was posted? The 14 goals and 44 points away from McDavid are even strength, and don't even account for a full season worth of even strength minutes. He scores at 0.13P/60 less than Monahan when he's away from McDavid, and Monahan needs Gaudreau to put up those numbers. I guarantee Monahan would never break 60 points if he spent that much time away from Gaudreau in a season.

Of course I can say he gets garbage wingers when he's not with McDavid, and the fact that he still scores similar to Monahan with those garbage wingers makes this argument laughable. Go look at his ice time with wingers on the team. Of course they both play special teams together, thats a common theme on every single team in the NHL.

I understand the stat fine, I'm not trying to paint Drai as some leech who can only score with McDavid at all. I've said several times in this thread I think he's the more talented player when compared to Monahan. What you keep neglecting and discounting is the benefit of having your most common linemate be a 100 pt Art Ross winner. Monahan had a 22 goal season as a 19 year old before Gaudreau playing with garbage wingers, so it's not at all like he's a complete passenger either. In Drai's 19 year old season he was still in the WHL. Monahan has also been the top scoring center on a playoff team, twice. Draisaitl hasn't really proven much at center without a #1 pick on his line, it's not just happy circumstance he so often gets played with McDavid, especially when one or the other is cold.

Either way it'll be interesting to make this comparison again in 3 years, all four players still have quite a bit of developing to do.

 

[McFlyingV]

I understand the stat fine, I'm not trying to paint Drai as some leech who can only score with McDavid at all. I've said several times in this thread I think he's the more talented player when compared to Monahan. What you keep neglecting and discounting is the benefit of having your most common linemate be a 100 pt Art Ross winner. Monahan had a 22 goal season as a 19 year old before Gaudreau playing with garbage wingers, so it's not at all like he's a complete passenger either. In Drai's 19 year old season he was still in the WHL. Monahan has also been the top scoring center on a playoff team, twice. Draisaitl hasn't really proven much at center without a #1 pick on his line, it's not just happy circumstance he so often gets played with McDavid, especially when one or the other is cold.

Either way it'll be interesting to make this comparison again in 3 years, all four players still have quite a bit of developing to do.

Some of these arguments are reaches. Top scoring centre on a playoff team twice? Cool, he'd never be close to the top scoring centre on a team with McDavid so to hold that against Drai is laughable. Drai out performed McDavid in the playoffs , see I can throw out random arguments as well.

It also seems like you're using "most common linemate" in a very disingenuous way. McDavid may have been Draisaitl's most common linemate last year, but Draisaitl didn't play the majority of his even strength minutes with McDavid. The only reason McDavid was his most common linemate is because he had a revolving door of wingers when centring his own line so it was impossible for anyone to surpass McDavid as most common linemate. The real question should be can Monahan score 50 let alone 60 points without Gaudreau as his linemate over 90% of his minutes? Cause he sure hasn't shown he can produce away from Gaudreau. So to say that Draisaitl needs to prove it is laughable when he out produces Monahan, despite spending less than half his even strength minutes with McDavid.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Some of these arguments are reaches. Top scoring centre on a playoff team twice? Cool, he'd never be close to the top scoring centre on a team with McDavid so to hold that against Drai is laughable. Drai out performed McDavid in the playoffs , see I can throw out random arguments as well.

That's not an argument or a reach, more of a statement of fact.

It also seems like you're using "most common linemate" in a very disingenuous way. McDavid may have been Draisaitl's most common linemate last year, but Draisaitl didn't play the majority of his even strength minutes with McDavid. The only reason McDavid was his most common linemate is because he had a revolving door of wingers when centring his own line so it was impossible for anyone to surpass McDavid as most common linemate. The real question should be can Monahan score 50 let alone 60 points without Gaudreau as his linemate over 90% of his minutes? Cause he sure hasn't shown he can produce away from Gaudreau. So to say that Draisaitl needs to prove it is laughable when he out produces Monahan, despite spending less than half his even strength minutes with McDavid.

Really? That's the only reason? Not that the two most common even strength line combos for Draisaitl in 2017-18 weren't

45.9%	DRAISAITL,LEON - MAROON,PATRICK - MCDAVID,CONNOR
16.6%	DRAISAITL,LEON - LUCIC,MILAN - MCDAVID,CONNOR

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

As far as I'm aware that constitutes a majority. For reference Draisaitl had 17 pts when McDavid wasn't on the ice with him. The only laughable thing here is your claiming that I'm using "most common linemate" in a very disingenuous way, as if that were even possible. Say it with me, it's really not that ludicrous of concept: Draisaitl benefits from playing with McDavid.

 

[McFlyingV]

That's not an argument or a reach, more of a statement of fact.



Really? That's the only reason? Not that the two most common even strength line combos for Draisaitl in 2017-18 weren't

45.9%	DRAISAITL,LEON - MAROON,PATRICK - MCDAVID,CONNOR
16.6%	DRAISAITL,LEON - LUCIC,MILAN - MCDAVID,CONNOR

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

As far as I'm aware that constitutes a majority. For reference Draisaitl had 17 pts when McDavid wasn't on the ice with him. The only laughable thing here is your claiming that I'm using "most common linemate" in a very disingenuous way, as if that were even possible. Say it with me, it's really not that ludicrous of concept: Draisaitl benefits from playing with McDavid.

The way you spin it is a reach. Draisaitl almost certainly would have led those teams to playoff spots in Monahan's place.

Those numbers aren't correct. In fact it's impossible that they are given that he spent some time with Aberg and Puljujarvi who aren't even on your line combos from that site (which add up to 100%).

Here is Draisaitl's actual usage at even strength.
Leon Draisaitl - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

So yes it is laughable. Of course Draisaitl benefits from playing with McDavid, much like the majority of top line players benefit from playing with skilled line mates. The difference being that Monahan spends way more time with Gaudreau than Drai spends with McDavid and never since his rookie season has been asked to carry his own line for 10 let alone 40 games in a season.

 

[Fourier]

Doesn't Draisatl play a large amount of time at the wing (most common linemate is Mcdavid). In that case, shouldn't it be Gaudreau vs Draisatl?



In that case, Draisatl averages around 0.68 PPG assuming he plays 18 minutes a night as the #2 center. That puts him at a 56 point pace on a yearly basis (assuming he plays 82 games). Monahan got 63 with a frozen wrist and numerous other injuries...

I'll take Monahan and Hanifin.

These are ES numbers. Your calculations assume that he never gets any pp points. All players play with injuries. Draisaitl was clearly not himself after coming back from his early season injury (concussion). But that was not the point of the post. It was to show that away from McDavid and Gaudreau respectively Driasaitl's numbers are much better than Monahan's in response to the post I quoted.