Draisaitl is making a case of being better than mcdavid

[Paperbagofglory]

Small sample size.

Without McDavid, Draisaitl is actually a negative point player, who is only getting fluke points based on complete fluke against players who don't deserve to even be in the NHL, and the rest of his success can be attributed to small sample sizes, and unsustainable Shooting percentages.

Once everything regresses back to the norm, Draisaitl will revert back to being the 60 point 2nd line center that he's been his entire career.

All of the analstatics and mumbo-jumbo super-advanced numbers point to him being a 2nd-liner at best.


If by random longshot, he does win the Art Ross, he will be by far the worst Art Ross winner in the history of the NHL, and will completely devalue what scoring actually means.

Least talented 50 goal scorer since Bernie Nicols. Agreed.

 

[McFlash97]

Small sample size.

Without McDavid, Draisaitl is actually a negative point player, who is only getting fluke points based on complete fluke against players who don't deserve to even be in the NHL, and the rest of his success can be attributed to small sample sizes, and unsustainable Shooting percentages.

Once everything regresses back to the norm, Draisaitl will revert back to being the 60 point 2nd line center that he's been his entire career.

All of the analstatics and mumbo-jumbo super-advanced numbers point to him being a 2nd-liner at best.


If by random longshot, he does win the Art Ross, he will be by far the worst Art Ross winner in the history of the NHL, and will completely devalue what scoring actually means.

[mod]

60 point 2nd line center?
Fluke ?
Small sample size ?

 

[Aceboogie]

Yes, it's quite excellent. I agree that post probably would've been better supported with some context as to where those numbers rank around the league. I think those numbers both probably rank somewhere between 1st and 6th which is where Pittsburgh tends to rank by most xG models. I have a Hockeyviz subscription and could check if you really want.

Per Natural Stat Trick at 5v5 without Draisaitl or McDavid the Oilers allow 2.06 expected goals against per 60 minutes and 2.38 goals against per 60 minutes. Among all teams, that rate of goals against would be the 11th lowest, and that rate of expected goals against would be 5th lowest. While expected goals has flaws that everybody in this thread has told us all about, it's still much better for quantifying defensive play because it can't be skewed by goaltending, where the Oilers are not so great at 5-on-5. And I think it's fair to say that an expected goals against rate in the top 5 is elite or at least bordering on it.

Now, obviously there's context to consider here - McDavid and Draisaitl frequently play against the opposition's top players, while the rest of the team plays more of a low event style against lesser competition. Evolving Hockey's RAPM xGA and GA both use teammates, competition, score, zone, and other key pieces of context as predictor variables and present a team's results after adjusting for those variables.

There are RAPM team metrics which adjust for a team's context, as well as RAPM metrics for individual players. The Oilers a a team have the 18th lowest EV xGA RAPM of 1.8, and the 26th lowest RAPM GA of 11.15. In other words, their team's impact on goals against and expected goals against is that they have increased expected goals against by 1.8 and actual goals against by 11.15, compared to what a completely average team would do.

McDavid has a RAPM xGA impact of +4.27 and a RAPM GA impact of +2.31. Draisaitl has a RAPM xGA impact of +3.79 and a RAPM GA impact of +4.17. If you subtract each player's isolated impact from the team results, then the Oilers have a team xGA impact of -6.26, and a team GA impact of +2.95. That team RAPM xGA impact would rank 9th lowest, and that team RAPM GA impact would rank 19th lowest.

So, what's the conclusion here? After adjusting for context as best as we can and excluding the impact of McDavid/Draisaitl, the Oilers are a top-10 defensive team who are sunk by goaltending.

If you honestly think this post is missing context or I have explained something poorly, then please let me know what you think I missed.

See this is a great post and I appreciate you for taking the time to write it out

1-I have said it before, but Draisaitls (and McDavids) defensive metrics are poor. I think whats maybe being missed is that there is a systems issue at play here. Both McDavid and Draisaitl play higher in the zone and dont play as tight to opposing players. This allows them to get out of the zone easier for faster breaks. You can call this "cheating" for offense, but its a design. It has been a neccesity at this point, because the Oilers lack offensive production from any other line/player. RNH can produce well, but only slightly above league average.

So by "sacrificing" in the D zone, you generate more offense. As long as you can generate more offense on those rushes, then you give up from taking the risks defensively, your team is better off

At different points and with different coaches, there was different systems where they played lower in the D zone and had more defensive responsibility. Both performed good defensively in those roles. I would be concerned if LD was being asked with lots of D zone responsibility and couldnt cut it, but thats not the case right now. I will be concerned if his offensive production drops noticeably, because then the offense generated doesnt outweigh the chances given up

I have also said that if LD were to do the above, his production would drop by 10-15 points as he is playing in more defensive positions. But I also think the Oilers as a whole would be worse off, because maybe the goals against only decreases by 8-9 goals

2- While the above is heavily influenced by systems decision (coaching decision)- LDs biggest issue is still N Zone and O zone giveaways and thats dependent solely on him

Not directed at you, but top 10 defensive team is a far cry from "elite defensively"

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

A large gap between McDavid and the rest of the league. Last season we heard this same nonsense about Kucherov.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

What did people see in Reinhart over Draisaitl?

 

[daver]

A large gap between McDavid and the rest of the league. Last season we heard this same nonsense about Kucherov.

How is this gap accounted for?

 

[Coffey]

I’m sure you guys were very complimentary to the Flames when they reached that excellent achievement last season.

The whole team overachieved, compare them to this year. We had a 50g/50a player that’s going into overdrive this year.

Try again with your negative propaganda.

 

[Coffey]

Small sample size.

Without McDavid, Draisaitl is actually a negative point player, who is only getting fluke points based on complete fluke against players who don't deserve to even be in the NHL, and the rest of his success can be attributed to small sample sizes, and unsustainable Shooting percentages.

Once everything regresses back to the norm, Draisaitl will revert back to being the 60 point 2nd line center that he's been his entire career.

All of the analstatics and mumbo-jumbo super-advanced numbers point to him being a 2nd-liner at best.


If by random longshot, he does win the Art Ross, he will be by far the worst Art Ross winner in the history of the NHL, and will completely devalue what scoring actually means.

Is this a copypasta from CP? Has to be.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

See this is a great post and I appreciate you for taking the time to write it out

1-I have said it before, but Draisaitls (and McDavids) defensive metrics are poor. I think whats maybe being missed is that there is a systems issue at play here. Both McDavid and Draisaitl play higher in the zone and dont play as tight to opposing players. This allows them to get out of the zone easier for faster breaks. You can call this "cheating" for offense, but its a design. It has been a neccesity at this point, because the Oilers lack offensive production from any other line/player. RNH can produce well, but only slightly above league average.

So by "sacrificing" in the D zone, you generate more offense. As long as you can generate more offense on those rushes, then you give up from taking the risks defensively, your team is better off

At different points and with different coaches, there was different systems where they played lower in the D zone and had more defensive responsibility. Both performed good defensively in those roles. I would be concerned if LD was being asked with lots of D zone responsibility and couldnt cut it, but thats not the case right now. I will be concerned if his offensive production drops noticeably, because then the offense generated doesnt outweigh the chances given up

I have also said that if LD were to do the above, his production would drop by 10-15 points as he is playing in more defensive positions. But I also think the Oilers as a whole would be worse off, because maybe the goals against only decreases by 8-9 goals

2- While the above is heavily influenced by systems decision (coaching decision)- LDs biggest issue is still N Zone and O zone giveaways and thats dependent solely on him

Not directed at you, but top 10 defensive team is a far cry from "elite defensively"

I don't disagree with most of this, and it's worth noting that both of them have posted decent defensive metrics in the past. McDavid has been above average, while Draisaitl has been marginally below average on more than one occasion. I definitely think there's also something to be said for the insane amount of ice time they play; I don't doubt that if their minutes were cut, their per-minute impact may very likely improve, especially defensively.

You've already noted that just a more conservative play style would knock 10-12 points off of Draisaitl, which would put him well behind MacKinnon for example in P/60 where MacKinnon is already quite close. Then you factor in the decrease in ice time, and you're looking at a guy who is probably scoring less than MacKinnon in order to play average defense. Meanwhile, MacKinnon is already scoring that much, and he's also playing roughly average defense.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Small sample size.

Without McDavid, Draisaitl is actually a negative point player, who is only getting fluke points based on complete fluke against players who don't deserve to even be in the NHL, and the rest of his success can be attributed to small sample sizes, and unsustainable Shooting percentages.

Once everything regresses back to the norm, Draisaitl will revert back to being the 60 point 2nd line center that he's been his entire career.

All of the analstatics and mumbo-jumbo super-advanced numbers point to him being a 2nd-liner at best.


If by random longshot, he does win the Art Ross, he will be by far the worst Art Ross winner in the history of the NHL, and will completely devalue what scoring actually means.

A lot of accuracy here, although your delivery comes off as sarcastic which makes no sense.

 

[GreatGonzo]

Hasnt been only a season. Since the start of 2017 (over 260 games)- the leading scorers in the NHL are 1. McDavid 2. Kucherov 3. Draisaitl

I don’t understand your point, what “hasn’t been one season?” McDavid has been the better player because of being there every year, his injury problems obviously affected his game this year, and Drai is running away with it. I’ve never said or even tried to hint that he was ever a product of McDavid, only that when both are healthy and at their best, does McDavid still out produce him?

he was 4 point behind Drai playing nearly the entire year with a partially torn knee and who knows what else, before sitting out. But Drai hasn’t out produced McDavid yet when both are playing in a full season.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

The whole team overachieved, compare them to this year. We had a 50g/50a player that’s going into overdrive this year.

Try again with your negative propaganda.

Yup, the Flames clearly overachieved last year. They've clearly regressed to their true form this year, which is...4 points behind the Oilers with one more game played. Lol.

 

[Incognito]

No, he isn't. Draisaitl > McDavid sounds like something that an edgy teenaged hipster would say.

 

[bobholly39]

Well at least we won’t have to see threads about Draisaitl vs Matthews anymore.

Sure.

However - now that McDavid is clearly no longer best in the world - it's probably time to revisit the whole McDavid vs Matthews debate. Someone should create a poll...

 

[Coffey]

Yup, the Flames clearly overachieved last year. They've clearly regressed to their true form this year, which is...4 points behind the Oilers with one more game played. Lol.

Uhhhhhhh they had 107 pts and we had 79 at the end of the season. Moving the goalposts.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Uhhhhhhh they had 107 pts and we had 79 at the end of the season. Moving the goalposts.

There are no goal posts being moved. I am telling you that finishing 1st in the Pacific is meaningless and nobody is jealous of it, just as none of you were jealous when the Flames were 1st in the Pacific.

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

It's a bad time to be an Oilers fan. The nonsense of "McDavid is better than Kucherov cause he plays on the worst team" shows now the problem of that kind of logic.

Draisatl is a better player than McDavid this season. As Kucherov was last season.

Accept it and chill already.

Draisaitl isn't a better player than McDavid and Kucherov wasn't last season. They had better statistics, but McDavid is hands-down the best player in the world.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Lemieux and Gretzky dominated the 90s... McDavid will be very close to 500 NHL points before he turns 24 next Jan. It is safe to say he is dominating his era. He may not be the only one ala Lemieux / Lindros/ Messier but Drai's success doesn't take things away from McDavid.

if McDavid has... 550 points in his first 5 seasons... and I point to 5 other players who 3 best seasons in that same period is around 330 points...

then I say ok... McDavid is a bit more consistent... but is his best day that much greater than the best day of his hand ful of competitors

if you told me Patrick kane would outscore everyone by 20% next month... or McKinnon would... or kucherov would... does it really shock us?

mcdavids numbers speak for themselves... hes a good small % ahead of other scorers if you go back 2 seasons... 3 seasons... 4 seasons... he has proven the test of time that he will be the best scorer of this current generation...

but will he win last years scoring title? will he win this years scoring title? will he win next years scoring title?

if McDavid was some sort of 5 tool player... if he was a wizard defensively... or a brute with his physicality... then... he might not need to win the scoring title by 25-30% to compare to gretzky and Lemieux...

but hes not

his only real advantage is his speed/skill. theres always been a player much faster than anyone else. pavel bure used to be faster than anyone else. rocket Richard once upon a time impressed everyone with his fierce speed...

we dont think of those guys as the greatest of all time because... eventually... someone came along faster. and those guys never dominated an era. their speed was impressive as all hell for highlights but it didnt translate into domination of the league.

we are following a narrative that McDavid is so fast so hes also so good... but he isnt really. he might be the best player in the nhl right now, but its arguable.

gretzky was never arguable until he started to decline. Lemieux was never arguable until his health failed. orr was never arguable until his health failed.

guys like gordie howe… were arguable. today we all say howe was in this top 5 but why do we say that? its because of longevity in howes case. his claim to fame was... career numbers. if you take a 5 year slice of gordie howes best prime career... you will see that at that moment it was never a concensus he was the greatest of all time

rocket Richards supporters would always argue he was better than howe
bobby hulls supporters would always argue he was better than howe

no doubt about it... howes supporters could argue he was the best... but it wasnt a universal thing.

we shall see if McDavid has a career with record achievements like howe. so far he hasnt been setting any records at all. he really looks so damn skilled when I see his highlights... but his team misses the playoffs... his team is constantly trying to find linemates for him because I guess he cant make his linemates good enough to play with him. he plays 23-25 mins a night to get his points which... means... if he was at 18-19 mins like some of his competitors youd have to subtract maybe 10% of his totals.

suddenly he wouldnt even be the scoring leader any more.

hes very fun to watch... but hes not of that top 5 player of all time category and he might actually not be the best player in the game right now

he is better than drasaitl though

 

[Muikea Bulju]

When has McDavid had to play without Draisaitl?

Nah. They should trade him at the deadline to get Draisaitl some wingers, or some D-man.

He should fetch a nice 3rd-line-winger. Maybe trade him to Winnipeg for Roslovic? Chevaldeyoff might even throw in Nathan Beaulieu while he's at it, if Edmonton sweetens the deal with a 4th rounder.

 

[Coffey]

There are no goal posts being moved. I am telling you that finishing 1st in the Pacific is meaningless and nobody is jealous of it, just as none of you were jealous when the Flames were 1st in the Pacific.

Did I just say they had almost 30 more points than us in response to your disingenuous “4 points hurr durr”

 

[daver]

Draisaitl isn't a better player than McDavid and Kucherov wasn't last season. They had better statistics, but McDavid is hands-down the best player in the world.

Usually you see the stats support this type of claim.

 

[Tage2Tuch]

It’s just a few games ....seriously? It’s impressive but come on people...

skinner also scored two goals during Eichels suspension last year and sabres fans said pay him whatever because he clearly isn’t just putting up 40 goal seasons because of eichel. Now we’re left with a 72 million dollar ghost.

Now keeping in mind skinner was still a good sniper before him but sample size and never a 40 goal scorer. He’s lost without him this year. Ps- I’m not just bringing up Eichel for the sake of it as I see a few names on this page who would love to accuse me of that, I’m just using an example to support my point.


Draisaitl however is elite, he’s pulling his own weight and right now is clearly a top ten player, case for sure to be made for top five.

Doing this for a week is different then doing this for a season. If he did this even for a month it would way different.

 

[Aceboogie]

I don't disagree with most of this, and it's worth noting that both of them have posted decent defensive metrics in the past. McDavid has been above average, while Draisaitl has been marginally below average on more than one occasion. I definitely think there's also something to be said for the insane amount of ice time they play; I don't doubt that if their minutes were cut, their per-minute impact may very likely improve, especially defensively.

You've already noted that just a more conservative play style would knock 10-12 points off of Draisaitl, which would put him well behind MacKinnon for example in P/60 where MacKinnon is already quite close. Then you factor in the decrease in ice time, and you're looking at a guy who is probably scoring less than MacKinnon in order to play average defense. Meanwhile, MacKinnon is already scoring that much, and he's also playing roughly average defense.

But that leaves out other considerations

1- Pts/60 I agree is a very good metric. But there is also skill/talent in being able to play higher minutes. Higher minutes often results in lower P/60. There is numerous cases of players p/60 decreasing with higher minutes. So if LD plays less minutes, his P/60 could increase (to what level I dunno), or if Mackinnon played LDs minutes who knows what his P/60 would look like. Playing high minutes is a skill itself, more exhaustion/higher burn/facing rested defenders etc etc

2-Draisaitls most common line mates are McDavid, Kassian & Nurse, for Mackinnon is Rantanen, Landeskog and Makar. Both get strong linemates. It would be a toss up between who gets the better linemates IMO

So I would agree that if more defensive responsibility, youd be looking at two players with pretty similar point totals and defensive metrics, while having pretty similar quality of linemates

 

[Aceboogie]

It’s just a few games ....seriously? It’s impressive but come on people...

skinner also scored two goals during Eichels suspension last year and sabres fans said pay him whatever because he clearly isn’t just putting up 40 goal seasons because of eichel. Now we’re left with a 72 million dollar ghost.

Now keeping in mind skinner was still a good sniper before him but sample size and never a 40 goal scorer. He’s lost without him this year. Ps- I’m not just bringing up Eichel for the sake of it as I see a few names on this page who would love to accuse me of that, I’m just using an example to support my point.


Draisaitl however is elite, he’s pulling his own weight and right now is clearly a top ten player, case for sure to be made for top five.

Doing this for a week is different then doing this for a season. If he did this even for a month it would way different.

Draisaitl is third in league scoring from the start of 2017 till today (260 games). The only ones above him are McDavid and Kucherov

 

[Tage2Tuch]

Draisaitl is third in league scoring from the start of 2017 till today (260 games). The only ones above him are McDavid and Kucherov

So? What does that have to do with anything?


I wasn’t knocking Leon, did you read the end of my post? I said he’s a top five player in the game but having that many goals is definitely assisted from the fact he is playing every overtime, powerplay, even strength minute, during that time with the greatest skater, player and playmaker in the game. But he pulls his own weight for sure. Him scoring for a couple of games without mcdavid doesent change that.

why do people think that’s a knock? It’s NOT.

Kurri was an elite scorer but Gretzky helps his totals, it’s not a knock on Kurri.

this is a winless argument if you’re trying to say he’s better then mcdavid, if he doesent play with him and then outperforms him in more then one season (hell even in one season) then maybe there’s a case. Or if he plays as many games as mcdavid and outperforms him even IF he plays with him it would still be impressive, but it would have to be more then once, mcdavid was a Crosby esque prospect before the NHL and put up multiple hundred point seasons and has serious hardware.