Prospect Info: Drafting like Dundon
- Thread starter emptyNedder
- Start date
- Dec 6, 2011
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I love talking about the draft, but I'll just throw out my yearly reminder. Aside from high, slam dunk picks (and not even always then), go back and look through our draft history for however long you've been following this team. Most likely, a huge percentage of the guys you wanted in any given year weren't the guys we took. Don't fall in love with who you want us to pick. It just leads to being sour when we don't select the guys you want, even if it turns out pretty well in the end. I've seen people pick 10+ guys in a given round they want, and still come up empty.
Cardiac Jerks
Asinine & immoral
It’s all good, in the very next round we drafted a goalie who doesn’t appear to have been good at stopping pucks at any level. He’s big though!
A Turcotte is what former Stars goalie Marty wears when it’s raining outside.
SvechneJerk
Christ is King
Good assessments! I appreciate your activity over on the Prospect Boards.
How do feel about Leason? I know there’s a lot of differing opinions due to him being OA. Is he a fit here?
- Jan 17, 2018
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As I mentioned in the initial post, I am not a scout. I have seen the disparate opinions. My take is he is worth a look after the first round. Since the Canes have two seconds and the odds are slightly less than 50/50 of any second making it long-term in the NHL, if Leason is available at 40 (or wherever the Canes pick), then they should take that chance.
I would be hesitant to take Leason in the first because he will be 20 at the draft. Though he could end up being a home run as a first rounder. He looked good at the WJC--over the 5 games there wasn't anything that made him obviously inferior to 1st rounders from prior drafts.
The real question is "is he a fit here?" The Canes do have several right-shot power type players (Gauthier, Geekie, Roy, Mattheos). My personal preference is to target elite-skating forwards to become the Kyle Connor to Aho's Scheifele and Teravainen's Wheeler. Or to find a play-making center for a line with Svechnikov and Necas. Leason may be the latter. If so, then using the first 2nd round pick makes sense.
If it came down to Afanasyev or Leason, I would flip a coin.
- Jan 17, 2018
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Totally agree. This is really just something to keep me from worrying about my 401K.
I do like to "target" a few players and then watch their development. I have only been doing it since the 2017 draft. From that draft I have been following Lucas Elvenes, Olle Erikssson Ek, and Luke Martin (the only one of the huge numbers the Canes actually drafted). From 2018 I thought the Canes should have drafted Jakub Lauko in the 2nd and Samuel Ersson in the 4th. I was also a big fan of Martin Kaut and Linus Nyman, so I follow their prospect threads.
Six months out, my targets for 2019 are Connor McMichael, Yegor Afanasyev, and Alex Beaucage. That is likely to change.
SvechneJerk
Christ is King
Thanks for the feedback.
McMichael is someone I've been keeping up with, as well. Not so much with Afanasyev or Beaucage, but I will.
NotOpie
"Puck don't lie"
I mentioned somewhere previously that I was disappointed in Kooch, but then heard more about the concussion he suffered, so I tempered my comments. It also sounded like the move to Omaha might have stunted his development as either they didn't have a real goalie coach or the one they had wasn't very good. In the end, I"m going to pull back on my judgement until we see his play next season at Providence.
Cardiac Jerks
Asinine & immoral
He’s having a rough year, no doubt, and I hope it gets better for him. Nothing against the kid, obviously. I hope he makes it.
- Jan 17, 2018
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Time for an update. The NHL Central Scouting rankings are out. So are two of the lists I find most informative: Larry Fisher at The Hockey Writers and Tryamkin here at HFBoards.
It appears the Canes will draft somewhere between 12 and 23 (they either just miss the playoffs or make it and go out in first round). Using that range and my bias for excellent skaters with high-scoring upside, the first round options are:
Connor McMichael. He has been moving up most lists and is now solidly in the middle of the first. He tested as one of the best skaters at the CHL top prospects event. Probably the safest of the three I like.
Pavel Dorofeyev. Now playing in the KHL. Throughout his junior career he was one of the top scorers in each league where he played for a full season. I have viewed some shift-by-shift video. He is quite talented. The one drawback is that he likely will remain in KHL for two more seasons.
Phillip Tomasino. Most lists have him between 25 and 45. So a bit of a reach. But he might have the most upside. Brock Otten (who does the OHL prospect blog) has convinced me that Tomasino is a great skater who has a really high compete level and good hockey IQ. In 3-4 years the Canes will need a top-6 scoring threat given that Aho/Svech/TT/Necas will all have solid cap hits. Tomasino is the highest risk/reward of the three.
Second Round:
I would jump at either Nils Hoglander or Yegor Afanaseyev , but both are likely gone before either of Carolina's second round picks occur.
Patrick Puistola. The Canes should resurrect their tradition of choosing a Finn in the second round. Puistola has excelled in international tournaments, which suggests he plays well with other talented players. He is a shoot-first type. Just what Carolina will need in a few years. I think the Canes should target Puistola with their first second rounder.
After that I think any of the following players have offensive potential worth securing in the second round: Maxim Cajkovic, Michal Teply, Graeme Clarke, or Alex Beaucage.
It appears the Canes will draft somewhere between 12 and 23 (they either just miss the playoffs or make it and go out in first round). Using that range and my bias for excellent skaters with high-scoring upside, the first round options are:
Connor McMichael. He has been moving up most lists and is now solidly in the middle of the first. He tested as one of the best skaters at the CHL top prospects event. Probably the safest of the three I like.
Pavel Dorofeyev. Now playing in the KHL. Throughout his junior career he was one of the top scorers in each league where he played for a full season. I have viewed some shift-by-shift video. He is quite talented. The one drawback is that he likely will remain in KHL for two more seasons.
Phillip Tomasino. Most lists have him between 25 and 45. So a bit of a reach. But he might have the most upside. Brock Otten (who does the OHL prospect blog) has convinced me that Tomasino is a great skater who has a really high compete level and good hockey IQ. In 3-4 years the Canes will need a top-6 scoring threat given that Aho/Svech/TT/Necas will all have solid cap hits. Tomasino is the highest risk/reward of the three.
Second Round:
I would jump at either Nils Hoglander or Yegor Afanaseyev , but both are likely gone before either of Carolina's second round picks occur.
Patrick Puistola. The Canes should resurrect their tradition of choosing a Finn in the second round. Puistola has excelled in international tournaments, which suggests he plays well with other talented players. He is a shoot-first type. Just what Carolina will need in a few years. I think the Canes should target Puistola with their first second rounder.
After that I think any of the following players have offensive potential worth securing in the second round: Maxim Cajkovic, Michal Teply, Graeme Clarke, or Alex Beaucage.
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SvechneJerk
Christ is King
You’re hired.
- Feb 23, 2014
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We need Nils Holgersson if there's one available. Let's trade Ferland for late 1st.
Connor McMichael. He has been moving up most lists and is now solidly in the middle of the first. He tested as one of the best skaters at the CHL top prospects event. Probably the safest of the three I like.
The Canes really need this kid--I hear he is the best Connor McSomething to come along since the last Connor McSomething.....
The Canes really need this kid--I hear he is the best Connor McSomething to come along since the last Connor McSomething.....
DougieSmash
WE'RE IN! WE'RE IN! YES! YES! WOO!
- Jan 2, 2009
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- Feb 23, 2014
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- Jan 17, 2018
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I am going to try to a monthly update around the first of each month until the draft. Just for kicks. I will list my one or two "ideal" picks for the first four rounds given where the Canes appear to be drafting.
In another thread there has been discussion about drafting Spencer Knight in the first. I won't be listing a goalie in the first two rounds. My reasoning is that the Canes will have a window for the next five years (basically the extent of Teravainen's and Pesce's contracts). So much like making a move at the trade deadline, I think the Canes should draft players (mostly forwards) who might be able to help in 2-5 years. Even the best young goalies are not contributing in the NHL until 22 or 23.
1) Phillip Tomasino. He is moving up almost everyone's list. The Sporting News (Steve K) states: "His puck control while traveling at top speed is excellent, and he can wear down opponents with his quick cutbacks and pivots." That is what I saw in video--I thought he had TT's puck skills and Foegele's motor. With the Canes drafting in the low 20s I think Tomasino should be available. He is a right shot and I think the likeliest candidate in this draft able to replace Williams when the Captain retires. He is on the younger end of the draft, so may actually develop beyond above some higher-ranked players.
2) (Buffalo pick) Eygor Afanseyev or Maxim Cajkovic. This pick should be used for a high-potential, even if not safe, forward.
It is likely to be around 42, so Afanseyev could be gone as he is showing up in a lot of lists between 30-40. If he is available, he is a big, strong-skating winger who could be come another scoring threat on the Canes in 3-4 years.
Cajkovic is the biggest risk/reward option in the second-round. He really struggled early this season as a foreigner playing in the CHL. His Saint Johns team is bad and from everything I read he often played out-of-control and visibly upset. Folks who track the QMJHL indicate that he is now playing and responding much better. He was dominant in both the Hlinka and last year's U18 World Championships. He is fast and has an arsenal of shots. If he reaches his potential, Cajkovic could be a 25-goal scorer in the NHL.
2) (Carolina pick) Since this pick is likely in the 50s, there is little consensus. The Canes should go for the forward who is less of a gamble, especially if Cajkovic is the earlier pick. Samuel Polin is a winger with a heavy game who was ranked in the first round early, but now seems likely to go around 50. Or the Canes could go with tradition and select a Finn. Leevi Aaltonen is considered one of the faster players in the draft--though one of the smallest.
3) This is where a goalie makes sense. Isaiah Saville has consistently outperformed his peers (except for two poor games at the Hlinka last year). He is in the top tier of goalie prospects behind Knight.
4) Time for some D. Justin Bergeron was eligible for last year's draft (having a 9/14 birthday he was inside the cutoff by 2 days) so there is a sense that he was "passed over." But he would likely be a top-50 prospect if he were three days younger, so getting him around pick 110 will be a steal if he is available.
In another thread there has been discussion about drafting Spencer Knight in the first. I won't be listing a goalie in the first two rounds. My reasoning is that the Canes will have a window for the next five years (basically the extent of Teravainen's and Pesce's contracts). So much like making a move at the trade deadline, I think the Canes should draft players (mostly forwards) who might be able to help in 2-5 years. Even the best young goalies are not contributing in the NHL until 22 or 23.
1) Phillip Tomasino. He is moving up almost everyone's list. The Sporting News (Steve K) states: "His puck control while traveling at top speed is excellent, and he can wear down opponents with his quick cutbacks and pivots." That is what I saw in video--I thought he had TT's puck skills and Foegele's motor. With the Canes drafting in the low 20s I think Tomasino should be available. He is a right shot and I think the likeliest candidate in this draft able to replace Williams when the Captain retires. He is on the younger end of the draft, so may actually develop beyond above some higher-ranked players.
2) (Buffalo pick) Eygor Afanseyev or Maxim Cajkovic. This pick should be used for a high-potential, even if not safe, forward.
It is likely to be around 42, so Afanseyev could be gone as he is showing up in a lot of lists between 30-40. If he is available, he is a big, strong-skating winger who could be come another scoring threat on the Canes in 3-4 years.
Cajkovic is the biggest risk/reward option in the second-round. He really struggled early this season as a foreigner playing in the CHL. His Saint Johns team is bad and from everything I read he often played out-of-control and visibly upset. Folks who track the QMJHL indicate that he is now playing and responding much better. He was dominant in both the Hlinka and last year's U18 World Championships. He is fast and has an arsenal of shots. If he reaches his potential, Cajkovic could be a 25-goal scorer in the NHL.
2) (Carolina pick) Since this pick is likely in the 50s, there is little consensus. The Canes should go for the forward who is less of a gamble, especially if Cajkovic is the earlier pick. Samuel Polin is a winger with a heavy game who was ranked in the first round early, but now seems likely to go around 50. Or the Canes could go with tradition and select a Finn. Leevi Aaltonen is considered one of the faster players in the draft--though one of the smallest.
3) This is where a goalie makes sense. Isaiah Saville has consistently outperformed his peers (except for two poor games at the Hlinka last year). He is in the top tier of goalie prospects behind Knight.
4) Time for some D. Justin Bergeron was eligible for last year's draft (having a 9/14 birthday he was inside the cutoff by 2 days) so there is a sense that he was "passed over." But he would likely be a top-50 prospect if he were three days younger, so getting him around pick 110 will be a steal if he is available.
Bunch of Jurcos
The poster formally known as Hedley
- Feb 24, 2016
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I really liked your post. It was very informative and well thought out. Thanks for doing it. That said how nice is it that we aren't already looking towards the draft already. I will be looking forward to your posts however frequently you want to do them.
Cardiac Jerks
Asinine & immoral
Carey Price was also 20 when he broke into the league. If the scouts think he has the skills and demeanor of those two, I’d take him.
Cardiac Jerks
Asinine & immoral
Still not very common.
Look through a few drafts and you’ll see there are far more first round goalie busts than those that turn into stars.
I don’t think it’s a good use of a first round pick but maybe that’s just me. Knight has barely played this year.
I'm not that concerned with how little he's played; I've never really bought into the "goalies are voodoo" thing either. Good fundamentals don't disappear and are transferable from one level to the next...and he has good fundamentals: he's laterally-explosive, he conservatives movement, he doesn't give up a lot of rebounds, he displays calmness in net; he doesn't over-challenge shooters, get himself out of position, or prematurely commit. Most importantly, he makes the first save cleanly, taking away second chances.
Nothing in his play or any of his off-ice activities shows any sign the kid is a head-case, has problems shaking off his bad play, or even has superstitions. (Yes, I stalked out his social media.)
I'm wary of taking a goalie too early...but I'd rather do that than end up with another wildcard in the mid-rounds. We need to take a chance on a high-reward opportunity at a problem position for us.
- Dec 6, 2011
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I'm not saying we should or shouldn't draft him, but Knight seems to have had a pretty normal workload for that level. Doesn't seem concerning at all.
Cardiac Jerks
Asinine & immoral
It seems I’ve been getting some bad information. I usually use hockeydb but they are missing a lot of his games which elite prospects show. Hockeydb has him at 10 games on the year compared to 32.
