Prospect Info: Drafting like Dundon

[emptyNedder]

The owner said the Canes will only draft forwards in the first round. That makes sense as the organization needs at least one more offensive threat even when the current prospects are ready. So I have scoured the scouting sites and posts here at HFB to see who the Canes might be able to draft. I am far from a scout, but there is a great deal of information available, so these players are all considered strong prospects.

My starting point is that Carolina has more than enough at RW for the foreseeable future with Teravainen (though he could be moved to LW), Svechnikov, Necas who is now playing RW in Charlotte, and Gauthier all having potential to produce 20+goals. Mattheos, Maenalanen, and Smallman might be depth RWs.
The center position is in better shape than it has been in some time with Aho, Staal, Wallmark, Rask, Bishop, Roy, and perhaps Drury, Cotton, Geekie, and Luostarinen.
Left Wing is the position that looks to have a deficit. If Ferland is re-signed, he is the best LW on the current roster. Kuokkanen and Saarela are future options to provide some scoring. The other LWs all are role players: McGinn, Foegele, DiGuiseppe.

So who are the best LWs available in 2019. I look at two possibilities. 1) The Canes continue their playoff woes and end up with a pick in the 10-14 range; 2) The Canes make the playoffs and end up picking 20-25.

10-14: If the Canes miss the playoffs again, the hope has to be that an American from what many are calling the strongest NTDP group ever is available. It is possible that either Trevor Zegras (who can play center or LW) or Matthew Boldy will be available. The Canes should grab either. Both could make an impact as soon as 20-21 and would be an upgrade on any LWs in the organization. Should the Canes miss out on the Americans, then the following players make sense:

Arthur Kaliyev is said to have the best shot among available left wingers. He has good size (listed at 6'2", 190) and is putting up better than 1.5 ppg in the OHL. There are questions about his commitment to playing hard when he doesn't have the puck.

Nolan Foote should be drafted around the same spot as his brother Callan was in 2017 (14). He is another player with good size (6'3", 187). He is one of the older players in the draft and has proven to be a goal scorer in three seasons in the WHL. Nolan's dad Adam played as a defenseman for many years in the NHL.

Should the Canes draft around 20th:

Pavel Dorofeyev is another player who has already turned 18 but is eligible for the first time. He is the leading point-per-game scorer (1.60) in the MHL for players with at least 10 games played. Last year in international play he scored 5 points in 6 games. Only one Russian on the U-18 team was above 1 ppg--Svechnikov.

Connor McMichael has been moving up most services draft boards. He is a left-shot center who is the leading scoring for London in the OHL, which is a team that includes three previous 1st round picks from 2018 (Liam Foudy, Adam Boqvist, and Evan Bouchard).

With two 2nd round picks, I am hoping Carolina calls two of these names.

Samuel Poulin
Henri Nikkanen
Marcus Kallionkieli
Maxim Cajkovic
Yegor Afanasyev

All are either LW or left shooting centers who have shown the ability to score at different levels.

In my perfect world, the Canes make the playoffs in April 2019 and then draft:

1st Round: Connor McMichael
2nd Round: Samuel Poulin
2nd Round: Yegor Afanasyev

Click to read more...

 

[the halleJOKEL]

thought this was going to be a historical look at what our roster would look like if we drafted forwards instead of d in the first round over the past decade or something

 

[MinJaBen]

thought this was going to be a historical look at what our roster would look like if we drafted forwards instead of d in the first round over the past decade or something

I thought it was going to be a historical look where we saw what our roster looked like if we only picked the guys that had the cheapest RFA contracts after their ELC.

 

[JCLA]

That's what I thought too halle

 

[SlavinAway]

If we're in the 10-14 range I would like to see either Boldy (only true LW in top-20) or Krebs (LW/C). Krebs has got a lot of size on Zegras though I have not watched either.

McMichael may be moving up by right now he is a big stretch in the 1st; highest I've seen him is late 2nd. If we make playoffs we should be targeting Foote. Kaliyev is moving up but is still trending in mid-2nd territory.

Obviously this will probably all change in a few months.

 

[SvechneJerk]

The owner said the Canes will only draft forwards in the first round. That makes sense as the organization needs at least one more offensive threat even when the current prospects are ready. So I have scoured the scouting sites and posts here at HFB to see who the Canes might be able to draft. I am far from a scout, but there is a great deal of information available, so these players are all considered strong prospects.

My starting point is that Carolina has more than enough at RW for the foreseeable future with Teravainen (though he could be moved to LW), Svechnikov, Necas who is now playing RW in Charlotte, and Gauthier all having potential to produce 20+goals. Mattheos, Maenalanen, and Smallman might be depth RWs.
The center position is in better shape than it has been in some time with Aho, Staal, Wallmark, Rask, Bishop, Roy, and perhaps Drury, Cotton, Geekie, and Luostarinen.
Left Wing is the position that looks to have a deficit. If Ferland is re-signed, he is the best LW on the current roster. Kuokkanen and Saarela are future options to provide some scoring. The other LWs all are role players: McGinn, Foegele, DiGuiseppe.

So who are the best LWs available in 2019. I look at two possibilities. 1) The Canes continue their playoff woes and end up with a pick in the 10-14 range; 2) The Canes make the playoffs and end up picking 20-25.

10-14: If the Canes miss the playoffs again, the hope has to be that an American from what many are calling the strongest NTDP group ever is available. It is possible that either Trevor Zegras (who can play center or LW) or Matthew Boldy will be available. The Canes should grab either. Both could make an impact as soon as 20-21 and would be an upgrade on any LWs in the organization. Should the Canes miss out on the Americans, then the following players make sense:

Arthur Kaliyev is said to have the best shot among available left wingers. He has good size (listed at 6'2", 190) and is putting up better than 1.5 ppg in the OHL. There are questions about his commitment to playing hard when he doesn't have the puck.

Nolan Foote should be drafted around the same spot as his brother Callan was in 2017 (14). He is another player with good size (6'3", 187). He is one of the older players in the draft and has proven to be a goal scorer in three seasons in the WHL. Nolan's dad Adam played as a defenseman for many years in the NHL.

Should the Canes draft around 20th:

Pavel Dorofeyev is another player who has already turned 18 but is eligible for the first time. He is the leading point-per-game scorer (1.60) in the MHL for players with at least 10 games played. Last year in international play he scored 5 points in 6 games. Only one Russian on the U-18 team was above 1 ppg--Svechnikov.

Connor McMichael has been moving up most services draft boards. He is a left-shot center who is the leading scoring for London in the OHL, which is a team that includes three previous 1st round picks from 2018 (Liam Foudy, Adam Boqvist, and Evan Bouchard).

With two 2nd round picks, I am hoping Carolina calls two of these names.

Samuel Poulin
Henri Nikkanen
Marcus Kallionkieli
Maxim Cajkovic
Yegor Afanasyev

All are either LW or left shooting centers who have shown the ability to score at different levels.

In my perfect world, the Canes make the playoffs in April 2019 and then draft:

1st Round: Connor McMichael
2nd Round: Samuel Poulin
2nd Round: Yegor Afanasyev

From what I've seen recently, Zegras seems to be moving up some lists into the 7-9 range. There always seems to be somebody that falls, for whatever reason. If it's Zegras, I'd be OK with it - if I had to.

This also applies to Podkolzin, Vasili.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

thought this was going to be a historical look at what our roster would look like if we drafted forwards instead of d in the first round over the past decade or something

It’s easy enough to do since the lockout, we barely draft dmen.

Replacing our pick with the next forward drafted:

2005: Jack Johnson out, Benoit Pouliot in
2011: Ryan Murphy out, Sven Baertschi in
2014: Hadyn Fleury out, William Nylander in
2015: Noah Hanifin out, Pavel Zacha in
2016: Jake Bean out, Luke Kunin in

So basically we get Nylander for Fleury (a well documented missed opportunity), and the rest are inconsequential.

 

[SvechneJerk]

It’s easy enough to do since the lockout, we barely draft dmen.

Replacing our pick with the next forward drafted:

2005: Jack Johnson out, Benoit Pouliot in
2011: Ryan Murphy out, Sven Baertschi in
2014: Hadyn Fleury out, William Nylander in
2015: Noah Hanifin out, Pavel Zacha in
2016: Jake Bean out, Luke Kunin in

So basically we get Nylander for Fleury (a well documented missed opportunity), and the rest are inconsequential.

Looking at lists like this always make me die a little inside.

 

[Hulkacaniac]

I don’t know if we could pick him with a second, but Brett Leason is an overager who’s breaking out and tearing up the WHL. Big center with skating.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Looking at lists like this always make me die a little inside.

Lucky for most of us, after years of watching the Canes, we're already dead on the inside!

 

[Svechhammer]

I mean, I don't disagree at all with what Dundon has said. Our D should be set for a very long time. Unless we're in a position where a generational defensive talent falls in our lap, like what almost happened last year, it doesn't really make sense to go after d prospects in the draft for the next few years. Go after forwards, build up our ability to score, and hopefully within a few years we can have an offense to go with this defense, and we should be dangerous. We really just need to throw as much shit against the offensive wall via the draft and pray we hit multiple times.

 

[SvechneJerk]

Lucky for most of us, after years of watching the Canes, we're already dead on the inside!

You are correct. Clearly I should've said "die a little more inside."

 

[SvechneJerk]

I don’t know if we could pick him with a second, but Brett Leason is an overager who’s breaking out and tearing up the WHL. Big center with skating.

I'm guessing that he'll be gone by the time our 2nd comes up.

 

[Svechhammer]

Made the mistake of going to the trade board, and its the usual Hurrr Durrrr Probably shouldn't have traded Skinner, durrrr

That place is such a troll farm, but I guess its ok when its directed at us

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

I mean, I don't disagree at all with what Dundon has said. Our D should be set for a very long time. Unless we're in a position where a generational defensive talent falls in our lap, like what almost happened last year, it doesn't really make sense to go after d prospects in the draft for the next few years. Go after forwards, build up our ability to score, and hopefully within a few years we can have an offense to go with this defense, and we should be dangerous. We really just need to throw as much **** against the offensive wall via the draft and pray we hit multiple times.

It was that kind of thinking that got us in the situation we are in. We don't know what the team will look like by the time the prospects are ready. Going BPA is the best option and it is unfortunate it looks like we will not be going with that approach

 

[Svechhammer]

It was that kind of thinking that got us in the situation we are in. We don't know what the team will look like by the time the prospects are ready. Going BPA is the best option and it is unfortunate it looks like we will not be going with that approach

Except the defense we have is very young and already playing at a very high level. We should have high confidence we are set at defense for the long haul, and really only be looking for supporting defensive roles in the latter rounds (where we got Slavin and Pesce to begin with... just saying).

 

[emptyNedder]

Going BPA is the best option and it is unfortunate it looks like we will not be going with that approach

I would agree with BPA for the first 5 picks or so. After that, the players are almost always grouped talent-wise. So it makes some sense to take the player from that group that is most likely to fill a need in 2-4 years. In fact, after the first round it makes sense to target one quality (speed, excellent shot, playmaker) and draft for highest potential.

I don’t know if we could pick him with a second, but Brett Leason is an overager who’s breaking out and tearing up the WHL. Big center with skating.

As I stated, I am not a scout. But size and skating are qualities that some point to when discussing Afanasyev. Which is why I hope he is available in the 2nd. Afanasyev is almost two years younger than Leason. Maybe the Canes could land both!

If we're in the 10-14 range I would like to see either Boldy (only true LW in top-20) or Krebs (LW/C). Krebs has got a lot of size on Zegras though I have not watched either.

McMichael may be moving up by right now he is a big stretch in the 1st; highest I've seen him is late 2nd. If we make playoffs we should be targeting Foote. Kaliyev is moving up but is still trending in mid-2nd territory.

On EliteProspects Zegras is listed 6' and 168. Krebs 5'11" and 181.
In recent rankings, McMichael is anywhere from 50 (Larry Fisher at the Hockey Writers) to 17 (Future Considerations). What I have been reading is that he is quickly putting himself into the discussion for the late 1st round and could move into the top 15. By the draft I think McMichael and Foote will be seen in the same range.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Going BPA is the best option...

This is trash thinking disguised as conventional wisdom.

What does this even mean? It's pretty f***ing evident that no one actually knows who the f***ing BPA is, or Sebastian Aho could be playing for literally any other team in the NHL.

All drafting, all of it, is situational and guesswork.

Also: no offense intended, CFBM. You're just the person who poked the BPA sore spot.

 

[hurricure]

Haha I remember the days of JR never drafting a dman in the first round... it worked just as well for the team...the problem we are in right now is exactly why you dont trade a contract year Skinner before the season starts...Waddel is now preaching patients hahaha, what an idiot... god I miss Ronnie “didn’t do anything but follow his 5 year plan and got f***ed over” Francis

 

[Lempo]

It was that kind of thinking that got us in the situation we are in. We don't know what the team will look like by the time the prospects are ready. Going BPA is the best option and it is unfortunate it looks like we will not be going with that approach

If there is a D who is consensus BPA up on Canes pick, trading down is a legit option.

 

[Lurk Muller]

I just want best forward available. Then pick a few more Slavins later. Not Pesces though, he couldn't even return a Nylander.

 

[Negan4Coach]

Do you think Dundon would have picked Svech anyway if we had #1 overall, instead of Dahlin?

 

[Vagrant]

hard and fast rules for drafting is foolish. comments like this one are meddlesome from an owner who said he was going to delegate and let his people who knew hockey make the hockey decisions. you've just undercut your general manager, if that title was ever assumed to be anything but ornamental, and your entire scouting staff. should our staff not even scout the mortal lock first round defensemen anymore?

 

[Lurk Muller]

Do you think Dundon would have picked Svech anyway if we had #1 overall, instead of Dahlin?

I really hope not. I hope Dundon was talking out of his butt and not in absolutes.

Do you think Dundon would have picked Svech anyway if we had #1 overall, instead of Dahlin?

I hope not. My comment was more directed at this draft. If there's a can't miss dman available at the teams pick. Take him. If there's a cluster of guys with roughly the same upside at the time of the draft (ehlers, Nylander, fleury) take the forward with the most scoring upside.

I'd really like the team to take big swings on the high upside forwards this year in the later rounds too.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

I really hope not. I hope Dundon was talking out of his butt and not in absolutes.

Only the jedi deal in absolutes