Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Select 4th Overall

[Jet Walters]

If that's the case, they should trade down with Calgary or Vancouver. Imagine either of those teams would love to grab Puljujarvi. Could you imagine a Gaudreau, Monahan, Puljujarvi line?

I don't think trading elite talent within our division would be a smart move unless they pay through the nose for that pick.

 

[smokersarejokers]

I don't think trading elite talent within our division would be a smart move unless they pay through the nose for that pick.

I meant that Columbus should trade with Calgary if they plan on taking a defenceman instead of Puljujarvi.

The Oilers should definitely not help them out unless it's an overpayment with Brodie ending up in Edmonton.

 

[oilz89*]

I'm just curious why some people are convinced that Chiarelli would like Tkachuk over Dubois? Did he say something?

I have limited viewings on both players, but I think Dubois seems more like a Chiarelli type player.

Tkachuk is a great player player but he doesn't have much of a mean streak. Dubois does have a mean streak and is huge. He can play centre and wing and he had no help when he played in Cape Breton. Tkachuk on the other hand had Dvorak and Marner on his line.

 

[doubledown99]

Here is an article from Sportsnet that uses advanced stats in junior to predict who from the OHL will translate to a sniper:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juni...-snipers-best-shot-becoming-nhl-goal-scorers/

"Interestingly, only 30 OHLers managed to fire 30 or more shots from the High Danger zone, and only three of those scored fewer than 20 goals. Seven of them are eligible for June's NHL Draft: Matthew Tkachuk and Max Jones of London, Michael McLeod and Nathan Bastian of Mississauga, Windsor's Logan Brown, Erie's Taylor Raddysh and Flint's Nicholas Caamano. Of that group, Tkachuk and Jones ranked highest in NHL Equivalent Goals based on their shot distribution and shooting percentages."

 

[oilz89*]

imo Dubois, Logan Brown, and Sergaychev are who we should be looking at at #4 or trading down for them. Tkachuk reminds me to much of how Gagner played with a great player on his line. Tkachuk has 2 great players on his line

 

[oilz89*]

Um, why?

to create Publicity. Guaranteed they will take Pulj

 

[Canovin]

to create Publicity. Guaranteed they will take Pulj

The question is does the Jackets see Jenner and Wennberg as the future #1 and #2C? I don't. Jenner is an ideal #2C not a #1C

I personally think the gap between Pulju and Dubois are a lot closer than people think. The fact that Dubois is a center and the Jackets are in a need of an elite center prospect makes it interesting. I wouldn't say it's guaranteed they will take Pulju that's all I'm saying. Jarmo or not

 

[oilz89*]

The question is does the Jackets see Jenner and Wennberg as the future #1 and #2C? I don't. Jenner is an ideal #2C not a #1C

I personally think the gap between Pulju and Dubois are a lot closer than people think. The fact that Dubois is a center and the Jackets are in a need of an elite center prospect makes it interesting. I wouldn't say it's guaranteed they will take Pulju that's all I'm saying. Jarmo or not

isn't columbus known for going off the board sometimes? I still think in the top 3 you take BPA

 

[Tarus]

Here is an article from Sportsnet that uses advanced stats in junior to predict who from the OHL will translate to a sniper:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juni...-snipers-best-shot-becoming-nhl-goal-scorers/

"Interestingly, only 30 OHLers managed to fire 30 or more shots from the High Danger zone, and only three of those scored fewer than 20 goals. Seven of them are eligible for June's NHL Draft: Matthew Tkachuk and Max Jones of London, Michael McLeod and Nathan Bastian of Mississauga, Windsor's Logan Brown, Erie's Taylor Raddysh and Flint's Nicholas Caamano. Of that group, Tkachuk and Jones ranked highest in NHL Equivalent Goals based on their shot distribution and shooting percentages."

Too bad that type of comparative information regarding shot locations wasn't around when people were predicting a 600 goal career for Rob Schremp. He must have scored 40+ of his 60 goals on the powerplay in his draft +1 season in the area in between the top of the faceoff circle and the blueline.

 

[McGoMcD]

Call me crazy but I think the tv pundits ect are suggesting there is a lot more spread in this draft then their is. They have been pumping Mathews tires for so long they seem to want to assume he is this run away #1. I think he will go 1, but I don't think he has much on Laine, and I don't think Laine as much on many others.

If you factor in age, Mathews is quite old for the draft class, the fact Mathews played so much etc. I don't see a gaint gap at all. Dubios played on a pretty mediocre team and yet was close to leading the qmjhl in scoring.

I know this is far from perfect, but it is a good starting point. If you use the adjutments from this website http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

you project mathews to have about 45 points in the NHL next year.
Dubios would project to about 38 points.

not much different at all. Note it would project McDavid to have got about 60 points this year. Which is sort of the point, all these guys are below McDavid, I think there is a few picks that are all close to average 1st over alls in other years. Also note it was pretty dam close for Eichel, it would have projected him to get about 60 points as well, which he was very close to. So I think Mathews isn't even quite Eichel level.

Any way, not to bash Mathews, I just think they are building him up a little too much.

 

[Zaddy]

Here is an article from Sportsnet that uses advanced stats in junior to predict who from the OHL will translate to a sniper:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juni...-snipers-best-shot-becoming-nhl-goal-scorers/

"Interestingly, only 30 OHLers managed to fire 30 or more shots from the High Danger zone, and only three of those scored fewer than 20 goals. Seven of them are eligible for June's NHL Draft: Matthew Tkachuk and Max Jones of London, Michael McLeod and Nathan Bastian of Mississauga, Windsor's Logan Brown, Erie's Taylor Raddysh and Flint's Nicholas Caamano. Of that group, Tkachuk and Jones ranked highest in NHL Equivalent Goals based on their shot distribution and shooting percentages."

I think that's a little bit misleading, at least naming them "snipers". Just because Tkachuk and McLeod score a lot of their goals in the "high danger areas" does not mean they are snipers. They are just guys that score a lot around the net. Tap-ins and such. McLeod in particular already has trouble scoring at the OHL level and I can't imagine it's going to be any easier for him in the NHL, so his numbers being at the top of the chart really doesn't mean much. Tkachuk on the other hand is probably gonna get a lot of goals in the same way he is getting them in juniors, so yeah...context is everything with these numbers.

 

[oilz89*]

Call me crazy but I think the tv pundits ect are suggesting there is a lot more spread in this draft then their is. They have been pumping Mathews tires for so long they seem to want to assume he is this run away #1. I think he will go 1, but I don't think he has much on Laine, and I don't think Laine as much on many others.

If you factor in age, Mathews is quite old for the draft class, the fact Mathews played so much etc. I don't see a gaint gap at all. Dubios played on a pretty mediocre team and yet was close to leading the qmjhl in scoring.

I know this is far from perfect, but it is a good starting point. If you use the adjutments from this website http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

you project mathews to have about 45 points in the NHL next year.
Dubios would project to about 38 points.

not much different at all. Note it would project McDavid to have got about 60 points this year. Which is sort of the point, all these guys are below McDavid, I think there is a few picks that are all close to average 1st over alls in other years.

Any way, not to bash Mathews, I just think they are building him up a little too much.

There doing it because TO won the lottery . Check tsn home page. Its not about the playoffs. Its about the great Leafs

 

[McGoMcD]

There doing it because TO won the lottery . Check tsn home page. Its not about the playoffs. Its about the great Leafs

True, though they have been doing it all year. They will clearly continue to do it big time now. I think Mathews just didn't quite live up to his year last year, others have closed the gap. No one seems to want to admit it though.

 

[oilz89*]

True, though they have been doing it all year. They will clearly continue to do it big time now. I think Mathews just didn't quite live up to his year last year, others have closed the gap. No one seems to want to admit it though.

Also (Swiss league is pro i know), Matthews did well in Switzerland.. but its also the league where rob schremp and other non nhlers are doing really well

 

[McGoMcD]

Also (Swiss league is pro i know), Matthews did well in Switzerland.. but its also the league where rob schremp and other non nhlers are doing really well

Yes, exactly, it is pro but it isn't a great league. It might be on par with the AHL, but probably worse. Robert Nillson also did great in the league this year. We all remember that he was not a NHL player. What mathews did is still clearly impressive, just not as impressive as what many suggest.

 

[oilz89*]

Yes, exactly, it is pro but it isn't a great league. It might be on par with the AHL, but probably worse. Robert Nillson also did great in the league this year. We all remember that he was not a NHL player. What mathews did is still clearly impressive, just not as impressive as what many suggest.

Yeah. He's going to get overhyped because its Toronto. Personally I think it would've been better for him to play in Russia maybe or just stay in the US development program for another year

 

[Tw0Shoes]

Yes, exactly, it is pro but it isn't a great league. It might be on par with the AHL, but probably worse. Robert Nillson also did great in the league this year. We all remember that he was not a NHL player. What mathews did is still clearly impressive, just not as impressive as what many suggest.

Guy had 41 pts in 71 games. Clearly not an NHL player.

 

[smokersarejokers]

Yes, exactly, it is pro but it isn't a great league. It might be on par with the AHL, but probably worse. Robert Nillson also did great in the league this year. We all remember that he was not a NHL player. What mathews did is still clearly impressive, just not as impressive as what many suggest.

My feeling exactly.

I'm trying to bite my tongue because I think he is certainly a great prospect and he played well at the World Juniors, but I can't help thinking that he should have gone to Everett and played Major Junior.

I don't blame him for chasing the money in the Swiss League, but I think the NHL is going to be a little more of a shock to him by going that route instead of Major Junior.

 

[Aceboogie]

Yeah. He's going to get overhyped because its Toronto. Personally I think it would've been better for him to play in Russia maybe or just stay in the US development program for another year

No way. He is not overhyped at all. He destroyed US NDTP, he truely had nothing to prove. He went to NLA because it was the best league that allow him to play 1st line minutes in a mens league. It was a very smart decision

Although it would have been cool if AHL made an exemption for him to play in that league

 

[frag2]

Yes, exactly, it is pro but it isn't a great league. It might be on par with the AHL, but probably worse. Robert Nillson also did great in the league this year. We all remember that he was not a NHL player. What mathews did is still clearly impressive, just not as impressive as what many suggest.

http://www.tsn.ca/mondaymustread-5-burning-post-lottery-questions-1.482013

Vuori, 53, came over to the Maple Leafs last year from the Detroit Red Wings with Mike Babcock. He was instrumental in drafting Anze Kopitar in Los Angeles along with Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar and Teemu Pulkkinen, among others, in Detroit. Since Matthews played in Switzerland this season, European scouts like Vuori have been able to make a better comparison to Laine than any normal year with him in their backyard. Matthews is No. 1 on TSN and NHL Central Scouting’s lists and was dominant in the better European league, but many European scouts have maintained since the World Junior championship (and not just because of his recent playoff hot streak) that Laine is the best player available. Vuori may well be in that group.

Is TSN saying NLA>FEL???

 

[Aceboogie]

For everyone talking about gap between big 3 and rest. In 2013 there was a big gap between Barkov/Mackinnon and Monahan/Lindholm. Since then Monahan has went out to be just as productive as Mackinnon

 

[oilz89*]

My feeling exactly.

I'm trying to bite my tongue because I think he is certainly a great prospect and he played well at the World Juniors, but I can't help thinking that he should have gone to Everett and played Major Junior.

I don't blame him for chasing the money in the Swiss League, but I think the NHL is going to be a little more of a shock to him by going that route instead of Major Junior.

He's so selfish only thinking about money

jokes aside I don't think it was a mistake by him. But it was an odd choice

 

[oilz89*]

No way. He is not overhyped at all. He destroyed US NDTP, he truely had nothing to prove. He went to NLA because it was the best league that allow him to play 1st line minutes in a mens league. It was a very smart decision

Although it would have been cool if AHL made an exemption for him to play in that league

No i don't mean it like that. I mean that now that he's going to Toronto the poor kids going to get even more hyped. He's a true franchise player but with TO's fan base and media.. ughh

 

[Aceboogie]

No i don't mean it like that. I mean that now that he's going to Toronto the poor kids going to get even more hyped. He's a true franchise player but with TO's fan base and media.. ughh

They are going to eat him alive haha

Kessel was once a savior- 2 years later hes public enemy #1
Phanuef was the same
Kadri has bounced back but also was public enemy #1 for a while

Once Matthews goes thru a 10 game dry spell and Leafs miss playoffs again, hes toast

 

[nexttothemoon]

My personal rankings for the top forwards and dmen in this draft (as of now):

Forwards-

1 Matthews
2 Laine
3 Tkachuk
4 Nylander
5 Puljujarvi
6 Dubois

Dmen-

1 Sergachyov
2 Chychrun
3 Bean
4 Juolevi
5 Fabbro