Draft lottery changes coming: 2015 odds tweaked, 2016 top three spots drawn

[Bps21*]

Really surprising that this is scheduled for a vote in two days and no one knew about it until now and still no one has even publicly disclosed what the proposal is. Dare I say feels underhanded?

What? That the GMs met about it, couldn't come to an agreement and decided to table it...and now the league has been paid off to push it through anyway? Naw...

Can't wait to see who "wins" this lottery.

 

[ZZamboni]

I'll worry about it/care about it, once it's actually implemented. Until then :yawn:


NHL doing it to screw over buffalo? Yea ok

 

[TehDoak]

Honestly I think this is more of a scare tactic by the nhl than anything else. We aren't the only team strategically bottoming out. I think this is more the nhl saying 'this can't continue, the lotto rules can change at anytime'

 

[tsujimoto74]

Why do things like this always happen at the most inopportune times for Buffalo? Always.

 

[KennyFnPowers*]

so awesome.. LMAO

 

[haseoke39]

Miller wasn't re-signing. Vanek wasn't re-signing. So they maximized the assets. They tried to spend money and all they could attract was VILLE LEINO.

Very selective memory. Pominville wasn't expiring. Sekera wasn't expiring. Yes, those other players would have left once it was clear we were tearing the team down, but we didn't get forced to tear the team down by anyone.

You know what really pisses me off? Buffalo never picks early. Legit. This pick at 2 is only the third time they've been top 4 EVER. Including the year they came in and had to pick top 2! Here we sit surrounded by the same teams that pick high every year...and as soon as the bottom falls out of our franchise after 45 f-ing years they want to punish teams NOW?

They throw rules out in the Stanley cup to screw them. They stop allowing cap circumventing contracts as soon as they get a billionaire owner but after the big market teams got theirs. They want to change the lottery when the team is finally bad. If they get within a game of a cup one day is swear they will add games.

 

[enthusiast]

This isn't to hurt Buffalo, it's to help bigger market teams who aren't Buffalo.

 

[KennyFnPowers*]

Miller wasn't re-signing. Vanek wasn't re-signing. So they maximized the assets. They tried to spend money and all they could attract was VILLE LEINO.

You know what really pisses me off? Buffalo never picks early. Legit. This pick at 2 is only the third time they've been top 4 EVER. Including the year they came in and had to pick top 2! Here we sit surrounded by the same teams that pick high every year...and as soon as the bottom falls out of our franchise after 45 f-ing years they want to punish teams NOW?

They throw rules out in the Stanley cup to screw them. They stop allowing cap circumventing contracts as soon as they get a billionaire owner but after the big market teams got theirs. They want to change the lottery when the team is finally bad. If they get within a game of a cup one day is swear they will add games.

I hear you bro, the alignment of stars against us does somehow seem infinite at times...

 

[Bps21*]

Very selective memory. Pominville wasn't expiring. Sekera wasn't expiring. Yes, those other players would have left once it was clear we were tearing the team down, but we didn't get forced to tear the team down by anyone.

He only took the Pomminville deal because someone blew him away on an offer. And he moved Sekera AFTER drafting 2 D in the top 16 of that draft. Dealt from strength to get pick for Compher.

Tearing the team down was the right thing to do...Darcy did it too slowly. And...because of some great trades we did it too well and have great prospects and tons of picks. If ANY TEAM EVER tried harder to avoid doing it than us I don't know who it would be. How many years were we constantly sitting at 9th or 10th hoping to win just a couple more to make it? All of the years. It didn't work. Spending didn't work. They had to rebuild.

It's not selective memory...nor is it wrong to take 4 assets for Pomminville when you need to change your core or to move Sekera when you have just drafted Risto and Zadorov to go with Pysyk, Myers, Ehrhoff, McCabe, Weber and at the time, McNabb.

 

[haseoke39]

He only took the Pomminville deal because someone blew him away on an offer. And he moved Sekera AFTER drafting 2 D in the top 16 of that draft. Dealt from strength to get pick for Compher.

Tearing the team down was the right thing to do...Darcy did it too slowly. And...because of some great trades we did it too well and have great prospects and tons of picks. If ANY TEAM EVER tried harder to avoid doing it than us I don't know who it would be. How many years were we constantly sitting at 9th or 10th hoping to win just a couple more to make it? All of the years. It didn't work. Spending didn't work. They had to rebuild.

It's not selective memory...nor is it wrong to take 4 assets for Pomminville when you need to change your core or to move Sekera when you have just drafted Risto and Zadorov to go with Pysyk, Myers, Ehrhoff, McCabe, Weber and at the time, McNabb.

I'm not arguing what he did was wrong. I'm arguing that he intentionally tore down the team. As everybody smart said he should. But he didn't have some cruel fortune thrust upon him, as you implied when you said the rebuild happened because of expiring deals. He chose this path even though it very clearly meant dropping the team out of playoff contention.

 

[Ruckus007]

Here's a quick explanation of the proposed draft lottery changes that were discussed previously. I made this post probably about four months ago and people thought it was helpful, so let's give er another go here:



The biggest thing to come away with: the odds of the very worst teams (~30th-26th) winning the draft lottery will most likely be 4-10% lower than they are under the current system.

Again, it's not a gargantuan deal if the draft lottery just determines who picks 1st overall. If the lottery decides who takes the top 3 or 5 picks, it's a pretty big deal, and it will piss me right off quite frankly.

So am I right in understanding that, under the system as you've explained it, that the lottery odds would change every year, depending on how each new season plays out?

Were the current and previous lottery odds tied to anything specific, or were they just thrown together for the purposes of a section in the CBA?

From a personal standpoint, I like the idea of lottery odds being more organic and derived from teams performances but if they do this rollling average, I'm not a fan. Not because of the homerist view of how it may or may not affect 2015, but about how outlier seasons may be treated in the future.

The Sabres had the fewest points last season than anyone in a full season since 2000-01 (I think, unless I missed a team) and "won" the lottery position by 14 points, but 30th place is 30th no matter how you end up there. They may be equally as bad next season. Even if they win the '15 lottery, those tank seasons will weight in to help other teams over the years they are included in the lottery calculation (a 30th place team that isn't as bad as Buffalo would decrease the 30th position's percentage, not increase it).

If the rebuild is successful, that means other teams would potentially benefit from the Sabres decrepitude. While '14 and '15 (if equally awful) are in the calculation, they would push the odds higher than if a less bad 30th place team were substituted. I suppose that could be part of the thinking in making this kind of change. Personally, I just think the league likes the excitement that comes from all non-playoff teams having a shot at winning.

 

[Bps21*]

I'm not arguing what he did was wrong. I'm arguing that he intentionally tore down the team. As everybody smart said he should. But he didn't have some cruel fortune thrust upon him, as you implied when you said the rebuild happened because of expiring deals. He chose this path even though it very clearly meant dropping the team out of playoff contention.

I don't buy it.

Intentionally tearing down the team would have been shipping everyone out around the same time.

They moved Connolly in an offseason
They moved Gaustad at a deadline
Then Roy in an offseason
Then Pommer at a deadline
Then Vanek at the start of a season
Then Miller at the deadline

They could not have stripped the talent any slower if you paid them too. They hang on too long trying to make something out of not enough. Circumstances now lead us to a place that many many franchises have found themselves...not us mind you...not until now...

And now is when we just have to change things.

 

[Kyndig]

Miller wasn't re-signing. Vanek wasn't re-signing. So they maximized the assets. They tried to spend money and all they could attract was VILLE LEINO.

You know what really pisses me off? Buffalo never picks early. Legit. This pick at 2 is only the third time they've been top 4 EVER. Including the year they came in and had to pick top 2! Here we sit surrounded by the same teams that pick high every year...and as soon as the bottom falls out of our franchise after 45 f-ing years they want to punish teams NOW?

They throw rules out in the Stanley cup to screw them. They stop allowing cap circumventing contracts as soon as they get a billionaire owner but after the big market teams got theirs. They want to change the lottery when the team is finally bad. If they get within a game of a cup one day is swear they will add games.

I wouldn't put it past them at this point. Buffalo will never win any major sporting event and no lacrosse isn't major.

 

[haseoke39]

Intentionally tearing down the team would have been shipping everyone out around the same time.

No it wouldn't have. As evidenced by the fact that we just obviously did it.

 

[CarlWinslow]

At this point I'm considering abandoning hockey if they do this and its for the top 3 or 5. Its such a joke that this is how this league operates. I'm so sick and tired of the league kissing the ass of people like Jeremy Jacobs.

This lottery business is stupid in the first place. Is this to become more like the NBA? Yeah, parity is sure prevalent in that league...

 

[Ruckus007]

I don't buy it.

Intentionally tearing down the team would have been shipping everyone out around the same time.

They moved Connolly in an offseason
They moved Gaustad at a deadline
Then Roy in an offseason
Then Pommer at a deadline
Then Vanek at the start of a season
Then Miller at the deadline

They could not have stripped the talent any slower if you paid them too. They hang on too long trying to make something out of not enough. Circumstances now lead us to a place that many many franchises have found themselves...not us mind you...not until now...

And now is when we just have to change things.

This gets back to the argument of when you think the tear-down started. I'm firmly of the opinion that it happened the day Ruff was fired and everything after that was about getting the team to the position it's in now. The stuff before (Connolly's unrelated, IMO, so Gaustad and Roy) I think were moves made in the context of trying to still be a playoff team while making the most sense from a value standpoint.

Gaustad for a 1st is a no brainer regardless of where they are/where in the standings, IMO. I don't think the Roy/Ott trade is anything near a tear-down move. But this is one of those things that no one can claim for sure, so it's fun to argue.

 

[Bps21*]

No it wouldn't have. As evidenced by the fact that we just obviously did it.

You realize we played most of this season with Miller, Vanek/Moulson and Ott right? And we were in last place anyway? So Pomminville was worth 30 points in the standings? Or were we just really ****ing bad and traded expiring contracts?

 

[TehDoak]

This isn't to hurt Buffalo, it's to help bigger market teams who aren't Buffalo.

The idea would be to discourage teams from intentionally putting a bad product out on the ice in order to gather high draft picks. The problem in, revamping the lotto isn't going to change that much. Teams are still going to rebuild. The only thing its going to do is shorten the fan bases patience with rebuilds and lead to perpetual bottom feeding smaller markets.

Let's use team A as an example. They are a small market team. They play in a non traditional hockey market. They've had some success recently, but their 'core' has past their prime and rather than being sure fire playoff team, they are now a bubble team. One key player left as a UFA, they have a few bad contracts on the books still. They were even the target of an offersheet by a big market team. Sure they have a few good young players, but no cornerstone pieces. They recently started the rebuilding process.

How do you think the fans will feel there if their draft pick will randomly be selected rather than because the team finished at the bottom rather by standings? How many 'bad' years will they put up with before abandoning the team completely. What happens when the owners are losing 20-30 million a year with a half empty arena and a bunch of overpaid journeymen are there to reach the cap floor?

The reverse draft order is what, in theory, redistributes talent. Sure, they can tweak the system a bit, but its what small market teams use to sell hope when their ice bad teams. Take that hope away? Get ready for more empty arenas in small markets when teams disappoint.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Is there a link that actually details the proposed changes?

 

[Bps21*]

This gets back to the argument of when you think the tear-down started. I'm firmly of the opinion that it happened the day Ruff was fired and everything after that was about getting the team to the position it's in now. The stuff before (Connolly's unrelated, IMO, so Gaustad and Roy) I think were moves made in the context of trying to still be a playoff team while making the most sense from a value standpoint.

Gaustad for a 1st is a no brainer regardless of where they are/where in the standings, IMO. I don't think the Roy/Ott trade is anything near a tear-down move. But this is one of those things that no one can claim for sure, so it's fun to argue.

While you would say it started with Pomminville...but it really didn't happen until this years deadline. He moved Pomminville because someone gave him a first, a second, Larsson and Hackett. Then...he did nothing. All offseason. For a team intentionally tanking..did he move Miller? Vanek even? And when the season started and he did move Vanek...he got back a top 6 forward in return. As all tanking teams do.

At this deadline Murray sold them all. And all of them were on expiring contracts.

 

[haseoke39]

Is there a link that actually details the proposed changes?

No, and it's the day after ****ing tomorrow. Which is mind-boggling to me.

 

[Sabretooth]

So... The further out of the playoffs the better the lottery odds? Seems to promote even worse tanking, no? That's why this proposal (if it is what was discussed before) is stupid if the desired outcome is to prevent taking.

I don't think the changes have anything to do with preventing taking - I think it is more to do with better distributing the odds based on team performance rather than some arbitrary scale based on position in the standings. I mean sometimes the difference between 17th and 24th is only a few points. It makes sense that the odds should be closer if those teams are pretty equal.

 

[Zip15]

Fine with it. The NBA has the best draft lottery system, so I hope the NHL adopts that system. Unfortunate timing for the Sabres, though.

 

[Ruckus007]

While you would say it started with Pomminville...but it really didn't happen until this years deadline. He moved Pomminville because someone gave him a first, a second, Larsson and Hackett. Then...he did nothing. All offseason. For a team intentionally tanking..did he move Miller? Vanek even? And when the season started and he did move Vanek...he got back a top 6 forward in return. As all tanking teams do.

At this deadline Murray sold them all. And all of them were on expiring contracts.

This is answered by...

You realize we played most of this season with Miller, Vanek/Moulson and Ott right? And we were in last place anyway? So Pomminville was worth 30 points in the standings? Or were we just really ****ing bad and traded expiring contracts?

Yes, they were that bad, it was just a matter of the market developing. The Pominville market developed quickly, there were rumors Vanek was being discussed during that deadline and at the draft. His market materialized in October (tell me the last significant October move Regier made...). The pace was fast, they traded pretty much their entire inventory in about one season. That they didn't do it in one week is irrelevant.

 

[yahhockey]

Other than the league rushing/forcing draft changes for next season before any more 2015 draft picks are traded it's hard to comment on the potentially different lottery when they haven't officially released what the proposed changes are. If it is only the five year average of points out of the playoffs as previously reposted in this thread then it makes things a little worse for the Sabres' odds but may increase the Islanders and/or Blues odds if either or both happen to miss the playoffs. If it's a major overhaul with the top X positions being selected by the lottery then the ***** session will begin. Until then, in true Buffalo fashion, lets expect the worst in hopes of being pleasantly surprised.