Draft lottery changes coming: 2015 odds tweaked, 2016 top three spots drawn

[Rhett4]

LeBrun says that 2015 draft lotto changes are back on the table and going to the owners this week.


Joshjull EDIT: I thought this topic deserved its own thread due to its potential impact on the Sabres. Rhett I hope you don't mind me using your post as a jumping off point.

Woodhouse EDIT: Here's the link to the official changes that are discussed from post #591 on--> http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=728795

Click to read more...

 

[Beerz]

LeBrun says that 2015 draft lotto changes are back on the table and going to the owners this week.

********.

 

[Beerz]

LeBrun says that 2015 draft lotto changes are back on the table and going to the owners this week.

Draft lottery update
When NHL general managers met in New York during the Stanley Cup finals, there wasn't consensus from the group to go ahead with a plan to change the draft-lottery format.

Some were for it; others -- most notably Buffalo Sabres GM Tim Murray -- were against changing it for 2015 for obvious reasons. It's the draft involving highly touted prospects Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel.

Several GMs we spoke with left the meeting believing the matter was to be further debated, but that no changes were on the horizon for next year.

Deputy commissioner Bill Daly plans to table a draft-lottery proposal Thursday at the board of governors’ meeting in New York for owners to look at.

If owners give it the go-ahead, the plan could be implemented next year. Interesting, to say the least.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/31559/rumblings-hawks-ducks-leading-the-pack-for-kesler

 

[Rhett4]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/31559/rumblings-hawks-ducks-leading-the-pack-for-kesler

Thanks for finding the link. Really, NHL? Really? Seems heavily driven by NHL brass.

 

[krt88]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/31559/rumblings-hawks-ducks-leading-the-pack-for-kesler

I was about to post this.

Seems like Sabres fans celebrated too early. The big boys want changes for next year and that doesn't do much for the Sabres.

 

[is the answer jesus]

LeBrun says that 2015 draft lotto changes are back on the table and going to the owners this week.

We'll see if it gets through. If it's anything like what was discussed before (weighted on the last 4 or 5 seasons) I don't think it'll hurt us all that bad. We've missed the playoffs 3 years in a row and it's all but certain will miss them again next year. The isles have been even more terrible. I think either way we get two high picks. It's just maybe the isles pick ends up higher than ours. Now obviously if we end up dead last and still don't get one of McDavid or Eichel I'll be irate, but I won't worry about that just yet.

 

[Beerz]

We'll see if it gets through. If it's anything like what was discussed before (weighted on the last 4 or 5 seasons) I don't think it'll hurt us all that bad. We've missed the playoffs 3 years in a row and it's all but certain will miss them again next year. The isles have been even more terrible. I think either way we get two high picks it's just maybe the isles pick ends up higher than ours.

It has nothing to do with teams it has to do with position.

 

[Paxon]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/31559/rumblings-hawks-ducks-leading-the-pack-for-kesler

I was about to post this.

Seems like Sabres fans celebrated too early. The big boys want changes for next year and that doesn't do much for the Sabres.

What are you referring to, the Canucks being competition for McDavid? I don't think anyone's celebrating about getting McDavid yet.

Edit: Nevermind, I see that article has a bit about lottery changes

 

[DazedandConfused]

It has nothing to do with teams it has to do with position.

what

 

[is the answer jesus]

It has nothing to do with teams it has to do with position.

?

I don't understand what you mean.

 

[Beerz]

what

If you have the 3rd worst record ... they average out the records of the 27th place teams last 4 or 5 years and somehow figure out how many balls you get. It has nothing to do where the Isles or Sabres have finished for the past 4 years or whatever years



Edit: Someone will come along and explain it better lol

 

[Jame]

If you have the 3rd worst record ... they average out the records of the 27th place teams last 4 or 5 years and somehow figure out how many balls you get. It has nothing to do where the Isles or Sabres have finished for the past 4 years or whatever years



Edit: Someone will come along and explain it better lol

I really hope they don't make this change... I really can't stomach another season of a poster explaining all the cap reclaim/buyout/trade back and then buyout/salary retention rules incorrectly.

 

[DazedandConfused]

If you have the 3rd worst record ... they average out the records of the 27th place teams last 4 or 5 years and somehow figure out how many balls you get. It has nothing to do where the Isles or Sabres have finished for the past 4 years or whatever years



Edit: Someone will come along and explain it better lol

That doesn't even make sense, where did you see this.

Anything I've seen has been what that specific team has been the last say "3-5 years" and averages out from that. But even that's stupid.

I don't know why they choose to complicate stuff like this when they should be looking at ways to make the actual game better

 

[Sabre the Win]

Typical why doesn't the NHL just come out and say we hate you Buffalo and hope you never succeed.

 

[boots electric]

Here's a quick explanation of the proposed draft lottery changes that were discussed previously. I made this post probably about four months ago and people thought it was helpful, so let's give er another go here:

They've done a really bad job of explaining the proposed draft lottery, but it's essentially something like this:

You take any finishing position, so let's say 30th place

You add up how many points each 30th place team missed the playoffs by over the last five seasons

You take that number of points and then divide it by the total number of points all other non-playoff teams missed the playoffs by

The resulting percentage is that position's lottery chance for the upcoming draft year.

Plugging in easy numbers as an example:

Over the last five years, the 30th place team has missed the playoffs by exactly 26 points. 5 x 26 = 130 points total

Adding up the total number of points all other non-playoff teams missed the playoffs by nets you a total number of 580 points.

130 / 580 = .224

Therefore, the draft odds for the 30th place team in the 2013 would have been 22.4%

You then repeat the process for every other non-playoff position.

Keep in mind that these numbers are completely made up; one article I read calculated that the draft odds for 30th team in the 2013 would have been approximately 18%, which is far lower than the 25% we're guaranteed this season. Over the entire selection of lottery picks, the odds would be much more evenly distributed--not a gigantic deal if this system were to only determine who picks first overall, but a pretty huge difference if the lottery were to determine the first three or five picks.

The biggest thing to come away with: the odds of the very worst teams (~30th-26th) winning the draft lottery will most likely be 4-10% lower than they are under the current system.

Again, it's not a gargantuan deal if the draft lottery just determines who picks 1st overall. If the lottery decides who takes the top 3 or 5 picks, it's a pretty big deal, and it will piss me right off quite frankly.

 

[Beerz]

Here's a quick explanation of the proposed draft lottery changes that were discussed previously. I made this post probably about four months ago and people thought it was helpful, so let's give er another go here:



The biggest thing to come away with: the odds of the very worst teams (~30th-26th) winning the draft lottery will most likely be 4-10% lower than they are under the current system.

Again, it's not a gargantuan deal if the draft lottery just determines who picks 1st overall. If the lottery decides who takes the top 3 or 5 picks, it's a pretty big deal, and it will piss me right off quite frankly.

Agreed.

If it turns out they do a lottery for the 1st 3 or 5 picks I'll be pissed.

 

[krt88]

Typical why doesn't the NHL just come out and say we hate you Buffalo and hope you never succeed.

What the NHL hates is a season or two (and that's what Buffalo would be doing) of tanking. Buffalo has dumped everyone and everybody know why.

It really calls into play the integrity of the game. However, changes should be made before UFA begins because that gives time for teams to change their plans.

Buffalo may end up sucking really bad next season for no reward.

 

[Beerz]

What the NHL hates is a season or two (and that's what Buffalo would be doing) of tanking. Buffalo has dumped everyone and everybody know why.

It really calls into play the integrity of the game. However, changes should be made before UFA begins because that gives time for teams to change their plans.

Buffalo may end up sucking really bad next season for no reward.

This is such a ******** of an argument. Yes...everybody knows why.. Their core was mediocre and were all on expiring contracts.

Rebuilding your team is nothing new and there is nothing wrong with it. What you do is take out a componet that is essential for smaller market teams to compete. Buffalo can't attract the FA's that are essential for building a championship team... More often than not they can't trade for them either due to NTC and other obstacles.


Integrity of the game..my ass.


Edit: Hostility directed at argument ..not you. I hear it all the time and it just burns my ass =/

 

[Splintered Sherwood]

I don't understand why the NHL feels compelled to change? The Oilers have been inhaling exhaust fumes the last I don't know how many seasons and yet their warm embrace of gross incompetence gets ignored, yet while Buffalo, in a somewhat forward and shameless way, have determined that the best thing to do is plant a Neutron bomb in the Sabres locker room in order to populate the squad with players who could never possibly be traded to Toronto for something of equal value ( Buffalo doesn't want players who suck).


I suppose from the NHL's perspective tanking is a kind of bad faith, in that you're not even making much of an effort to win, which is really against the spirit of competition. But how else can teams get better if they don't have elite talent? The NHL is a salary cap world where the best players don't even hit free agency any more, so I think by trying to randomize the draft even more amongst the damned of the standings the NHL could basically be creating ripe conditions for dynasties, which may already be happening in the West with Chicago and Los Angeles. If the NHL is trying to distribute the talent more equally amongst the have nots, which any changes to the future draft will certainly try to do, those who already have a measure of it such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and even Pittsburgh, are at an enormous advantage because the ability to stockpile talent will become harder.


Of course, the large caveat to this is that being able to draft high in the draft is not necessarily the most guaranteed path to success, but still, stats do bear out that the earlier you get to pick, the better chance you have at drafting an impact player.

 

[TehDoak]

What the NHL hates is a season or two (and that's what Buffalo would be doing) of tanking. Buffalo has dumped everyone and everybody know why.

It really calls into play the integrity of the game. However, changes should be made before UFA begins because that gives time for teams to change their plans.

Buffalo may end up sucking really bad next season for no reward.

The only good news is that as long as the Isles miss the playoffs, it would increase the odds that the pick is good.

I wouldn't be too worried about it. Maybe Pegula will hand out gift baskets of cash or something

 

[Beerz]

The only good news is that as long as the Isles miss the playoffs, it would increase the odds that the pick is good.

I wouldn't be too worried about it. Maybe Pegula will hand out gift baskets of cash or something

How do you figure? I mean yeah..we could get lucky in a lottery sense .. but overall it doesn't help at all.

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

 

[haseoke39]

Really surprising that this is scheduled for a vote in two days and no one knew about it until now and still no one has even publicly disclosed what the proposal is. Dare I say feels underhanded?

 

[Bps21*]

What the NHL hates is a season or two (and that's what Buffalo would be doing) of tanking. Buffalo has dumped everyone and everybody know why.

It really calls into play the integrity of the game. However, changes should be made before UFA begins because that gives time for teams to change their plans.

Buffalo may end up sucking really bad next season for no reward.

Miller wasn't re-signing. Vanek wasn't re-signing. So they maximized the assets. They tried to spend money and all they could attract was VILLE LEINO.

You know what really pisses me off? Buffalo never picks early. Legit. This pick at 2 is only the third time they've been top 4 EVER. Including the year they came in and had to pick top 2! Here we sit surrounded by the same teams that pick high every year...and as soon as the bottom falls out of our franchise after 45 f-ing years they want to punish teams NOW?

They throw rules out in the Stanley cup to screw them. They stop allowing cap circumventing contracts as soon as they get a billionaire owner but after the big market teams got theirs. They want to change the lottery when the team is finally bad. If they get within a game of a cup one day is swear they will add games.

 

[Beerz]

Miller wasn't re-signing. Vanek wasn't re-signing. So they maximized the assets. They tried to spend money and all they could attract was VILLE LEINO.

You know what really pisses me off? Buffalo never picks early. Legit. This pick at 2 is only the third time they've been top 4 EVER. Including the year they came in and had to pick top 2! Here we sit surrounded by the same teams that pick high every year...and as soon as the bottom falls out of our franchise after 45 f-ing years they want to punish teams NOW?

They throw rules out in the Stanley cup to screw them. They stop allowing cap circumventing contracts as soon as they get a billionaire owner but after the big market teams got theirs. They want to change the lottery when the team is finally bad. If they get within a game of a cup one day is swear they will add games.

I dont buy the "screwing Buffalo" angle we're just a byproduct of the "powerful" teams wanting more. No better time to flex that muscle then with McJesus coming.