Draft Day Megathread (BS-APPROVED, NO DOUBTERS ALLOWED!)

[Captain Dave Poulin]

We arent talking to Tavares which really bothers me.

Neither are the Rangers. It's not outlandish to think that he doesn't want to even consider talking to a rival team of the Islanders - it's very much in keeping with his personality as I understand it.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Disagreed.

Wylie is a big riser who will only benefit from Hart’s absence since the D will only play harder to stay competitive. At the beginning of the season no one expected him to make the Silvertips. The pick has written Sanheim because of the unexpected developement written all over him (and no it does not mean I compared the two value-wise to each other).

Sanheim was a two-time AAA midget all-star and had played in two international tournaments for Canada before his draft, not to mention he had just had a huge growth spurt, springing up to 6'3", and could skate like the wind.

Sanheim also had been 17 for his entire draft year regular season, which was his first season of major junior (put up 29 points). Wylie turned 18 five or six weeks after the beginning of his draft year regular season, which was his second season of major junior (Wylie put up only 10 points the year prior, when he was 17). Wylie doesn't have Sanheim's size or raw physical attributes, and to my knowledge didn't undergo a sudden growth spurt.

So while Wylie may be a late bloomer in the WHL, I'm not seeing the Sanheim-type of blossoming, physical attributes, or success for his age that would indicate high upside at the NHL level.

 

[deadhead]

High upside? In the 5th round, any upside is fine.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

this site is going wonky again.
get your shit together people.

 

[BackWithaVengeance]

Sanheim was a two-time AAA midget all-star and had played in two international tournaments for Canada before his draft, not to mention he had just had a huge growth spurt, springing up to 6'3", and could skate like the wind.

Sanheim also had been 17 for his entire draft year regular season, which was his first season of major junior (put up 29 points). Wylie turned 18 five or six weeks after the beginning of his draft year regular season, which was his second season of major junior (Wylie put up only 10 points the year prior, when he was 17). Wylie doesn't have Sanheim's size or raw physical attributes, and to my knowledge didn't undergo a sudden growth spurt.

So while Wylie may be a late bloomer in the WHL, I'm not seeing the Sanheim-type of blossoming, physical attributes, or success for his age that would indicate high upside at the NHL level.

Nice post.

And what are the expectations for a former 1st rounder with Danheims skill set? At best a top-pairing D.

If Wylie comes close to a reliable top-4, that’s all we really need. BIG DIFFERENCE.

 

[Foggy14]

...

2) O'Brien is a center from all reports and video evidence; whether he slides to RW is TBD and an option

...

Yeah, Hexy seems to think he's a center.

"We believe he can play center, even though he’s a little bit undersized now. Again, he’s smart, he’s thick, he’s strong, so we view him as a center."

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Yeah, Hexy seems to think he's a center.

"We believe he can play center, even though he’s a little bit undersized now. Again, he’s smart, he’s thick, he’s strong, so we view him as a center."

I'm pretty sure Hexy views everyone as potential centers, even the goalies lol

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Nice post.

And what are the expectations for a former 1st rounder with Danheims skill set? At best a top-pairing D.

If Wylie comes close to a reliable top-4, that’s all we really need. BIG DIFFERENCE.

I certainly agree that if you get a reliable top 4 out of a 5th round pick, you've knocked it out of the park. But even though Wylie is a late bloomer at the WHL level, I'm not seeing a lot that makes me think he has much NHL upside. Could be wrong. But not particularly big, not particularly offensive, not particularly physical, not especially productive for 18. Seems to be smart, though. Best case scenario is what, an Andrew MacDonald type, but RH? That would be a fantastic outcome for 127, I guess, and could happen. I just tend to like the lesser scouted Euro types in that range of the draft.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

We arent talking to Tavares which really bothers me.

I like Tavares but this team has a few holes. Signing a guy while he is a great player to a 11-12 million per year deal would prevent other things from being done. If a big time scoring C is this teams only need and the space is available then sure.
they need to add depth on the wings, find a bottom 6 Center, get a solid middle pairing defenseman and they need to find a goalie.

 

[Adam Warlock]

I like Tavares but this team has a few holes. Signing a guy while he is a great player to a 11-12 million per year deal would prevent other things from being done. If a big time scoring C is this teams only need and the space is available then sure.
they need to add depth on the wings, find a bottom 6 Center, get a solid middle pairing defenseman and they need to find a goalie.

I get the logic of not signing him but it bothers me hes not even going to have a conversation. Hes still the best free agent maybe ever he should at least look into it.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

I get the logic of not signing him but it bothers me hes not even going to have a conversation. Hes still the best free agent maybe ever he should at least look into it.

while true, we dont know if Hextall asked about coming to Philly and JT said No.
there has to be a want from the player to want to come here. That is for anyone on the market.

 

[Adam Warlock]

while true, we dont know if Hextall asked about coming to Philly and JT said No.
there has to be a want from the player to want to come here. That is for anyone on the market.

Thats what I mean. What if he would wanna come here? Hed play with talent his age and with up and com8ng talent. He wouldnt have to move far and its a great area to live in.

I mean we will never know for sure but I would think he would have to meet with him this week to find any of that out.

 

[deadhead]

I certainly agree that if you get a reliable top 4 out of a 5th round pick, you've knocked it out of the park. But even though Wylie is a late bloomer at the WHL level, I'm not seeing a lot that makes me think he has much NHL upside. Could be wrong. But not particularly big, not particularly offensive, not particularly physical, not especially productive for 18. Seems to be smart, though. Best case scenario is what, an Andrew MacDonald type, but RH? That would be a fantastic outcome for 127, I guess, and could happen. I just tend to like the lesser scouted Euro types in that range of the draft.

Wylie 5th, Hogberg 5th - if either becomes a 3rd pair starter you're way ahead of the game.
After the top 40, you're basically looking at bottom six/3rd pair guys.
Our top six, #22, #8, #24, #2, #7 - Lindblom is the outlier, and if Farabee beats him out down the road, we're wall to wall 1st rd picks.
Third line, Farabee #14, O'Brien #19, Frost #27, Ratcliffe #35, Simmonds (2nd), Allison (2nd).

We've been unusually fortunate on defense with Ghost and Myers, but #7, #17, #11, Hagg (2nd), Ginning (2nd), Gudas.

Getting 400+ games (5 starting seasons) - #31-50, only 22% of picks. 51-100%, 15% of picks, rest of draft, 7-8%.
So let's have some reasonable expectations, even if the Flyers FO is brilliant and doubles the odds of success, it's still unlikely that Ginning is a 3rd pair defenseman for an extended period, or that even one of the rest of the draft makes it up for more than a cup of coffee (a season or two, see Cousins, Leier, etc).

 

[duffy9748]

I think there’s a good chance a forward and/or defenseman are added via trade still. Adding two forwards with 14+19 just made a lot of prospects expendable.

Looking ahead and by knowing what’s in the system, this team is set up to have a ton of internal competition for only a few spots. Outside of Frost, Farabee, O’Brien, Hart, and 1 or both of Sanheim/Myers, I’d think every prospect is available. With the 5-10 prospects expendable packaged with 2019/2020/2021/2022 picks, you could have two very deep teams to make a run at the cup in ‘20-21 and ‘21-22.

Giroux-Couturier-UFA/Trade(6-11M)
Konecny-Patrick-Voracek
Lindblom-Frost-Simmonds/Trade
X-O’Brien-Farabee

Provorov-Trade(5-11 M)
Ghost-Sanheim/Myers
Morin/Hagg-X

Hart(3rd year Pro)
Trade/UFA

There’s a ton of cap space opening up and the ability to spend a majority of it on two high end players at forward, defense, or even goalie.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Wylie 5th, Hogberg 5th - if either becomes a 3rd pair starter you're way ahead of the game.
After the top 40, you're basically looking at bottom six/3rd pair guys.
Our top six, #22, #8, #24, #2, #7 - Lindblom is the outlier, and if Farabee beats him out down the road, we're wall to wall 1st rd picks.
Third line, Farabee #14, O'Brien #19, Frost #27, Ratcliffe #35, Simmonds (2nd), Allison (2nd).

We've been unusually fortunate on defense with Ghost and Myers, but #7, #17, #11, Hagg (2nd), Ginning (2nd), Gudas.

Getting 400+ games (5 starting seasons) - #31-50, only 22% of picks. 51-100%, 15% of picks, rest of draft, 7-8%.
So let's have some reasonable expectations, even if the Flyers FO is brilliant and doubles the odds of success, it's still unlikely that Ginning is a 3rd pair defenseman for an extended period, or that even one of the rest of the draft makes it up for more than a cup of coffee (a season or two, see Cousins, Leier, etc).

I agree with you, but it's nice to find the Pavelskis, Gaudreaus, Ghosts, Marchands, Benns, Arvidssons, Klingbergs, and Krugs after the 2nd round once in a while. So when I look at Wylie and think, "Best case scenario he becomes a RH AMac," while that would be a success of a 5th rd. pick, it's kind of "meh, that's not a fun roll of the dice for a probably meaningless mid-rounder."

 

[wankstifier]

Not sure if this has been asked already: Any undrafted players that the Flyers might consider?

 

[deadhead]

Even top FOs struggle to draft over an extended period, drafting is tough, even inside the top 50 picks.
Any draft where you land 2 starters (400+ games) is a good draft, more than that or an allstar, a great draft.

players who played 400+ games, top 50 picks and hits

Chicago, [1.33 per year] 5 hits, 13 misses, 7 outside the top 50
2000: missed on #10, #11, #49
2001: Ruutu #9, Anderson #73
2002: Keith #54, Wisniewski #156 - missed on #21
2003: Seabrook #14, Crawford #52, Byfuglein #245
2004: Bolland #32, missed on #3, #41, #45
2005: Hjalmarsson #108 - missed on #7, #43
2006: Toews #3, missed on #33
2007: Kane #1, missed on #38
2008: Kruger #149, missed on #28
They missed on a lot of top and 2nd rd picks, but hit on later 2nd round and middle round picks to compensate

Pittsburgh [1.1 per year] 7 hits, 10 misses, 6 outside the top 50
2001: Armstrong #21
2002: Whitney #5, missed on 35
2003: Fleury #1, Carcillo #73, Mouslon #163, missed on 32
2004: Malkin #2, Goligoski #61, missed on #31
2005: Crosby #1, Letang #62
2006: Staal #2, missed #32
2007: Muzzin #141, missed #20, #51
2008: first pick was #120
2009: missed #30
2010: missed #20 [Rust #80 may hit 400 in a few years]
2011: missed #23
2012: Maata #22, missed #8

Los Angeles [1.4 per year] hit 11, missed 12, 3 outside the top 50
2001: Steckel #30, Cammalleri #39, missed #18
2002: missed #18, #50
2003: Brown #13, Boyle #26, missed #27, #44
2004: missed #11
2005: Kopitar #11, missed #50
2006: Lewis #17, missed #11, #48
2007: Hickey #4, Simmonds #61, Martinez #95, King #109
2008: Doughty #2, missed #13, #32
2009: Schenn #5, Clifford #35
2010: Toffoli #47, missed on #15

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Not sure if this has been asked already: Any undrafted players that the Flyers might consider?

I still like that Korosenko that we invited last year - he went undrafted again. Crack pipe dream at this point, but I'm hoping he gets another invite and changes their minds.

 

[Jtown]

Even top FOs struggle to draft over an extended period, drafting is tough, even inside the top 50 picks.
Any draft where you land 2 starters (400+ games) is a good draft, more than that or an allstar, a great draft.

players who played 400+ games, top 50 picks and hits

Chicago, [1.33 per year] 5 hits, 13 misses, 7 outside the top 50
2000: missed on #10, #11, #49
2001: Ruutu #9, Anderson #73
2002: Keith #54, Wisniewski #156 - missed on #21
2003: Seabrook #14, Crawford #52, Byfuglein #245
2004: Bolland #32, missed on #3, #41, #45
2005: Hjalmarsson #108 - missed on #7, #43
2006: Toews #3, missed on #33
2007: Kane #1, missed on #38
2008: Kruger #149, missed on #28
They missed on a lot of top and 2nd rd picks, but hit on later 2nd round and middle round picks to compensate

Pittsburgh [1.1 per year] 7 hits, 10 misses, 6 outside the top 50
2001: Armstrong #21
2002: Whitney #5, missed on 35
2003: Fleury #1, Carcillo #73, Mouslon #163, missed on 32
2004: Malkin #2, Goligoski #61, missed on #31
2005: Crosby #1, Letang #62
2006: Staal #2, missed #32
2007: Muzzin #141, missed #20, #51
2008: first pick was #120
2009: missed #30
2010: missed #20 [Rust #80 may hit 400 in a few years]
2011: missed #23
2012: Maata #22, missed #8

Los Angeles [1.4 per year] hit 11, missed 12, 3 outside the top 50
2001: Steckel #30, Cammalleri #39, missed #18
2002: missed #18, #50
2003: Brown #13, Boyle #26, missed #27, #44
2004: missed #11
2005: Kopitar #11, missed #50
2006: Lewis #17, missed #11, #48
2007: Hickey #4, Simmonds #61, Martinez #95, King #109
2008: Doughty #2, missed #13, #32
2009: Schenn #5, Clifford #35
2010: Toffoli #47, missed on #15

like in all sports , there is no science to predict the future.

like in all aspects of life, there is no science to predict the future.

Like in all aspect of life there is this need and belief that individcuals can impact the future and their future in particular.

best draft philosphy i have seen has come from hinkie. More draft picks more chances to hit. simple as that.

 

[deadhead]

I agree with you, but it's nice to find the Pavelskis, Gaudreaus, Ghosts, Marchands, Benns, Arvidssons, Klingbergs, and Krugs after the 2nd round once in a while. So when I look at Wylie and think, "Best case scenario he becomes a RH AMac," while that would be a success of a 5th rd. pick, it's kind of "meh, that's not a fun roll of the dice for a probably meaningless mid-rounder."

Conversely a reliable 4th line player like Raffl is more valuable than a more skilled tweener like Weal.
The problem with most of the smaller, offensively skilled players who drop is that they either aren't that skilled or have a serious character flaw/durability issues.

Ideally you want to maintain a mix, some upside offensive gambles, some solid bottom roster guys, some big guys who are at least adequate.
The physical aspect of hockey may have been reduced, it hasn't been removed, especially in the playoffs.

 

[deadhead]

best draft philosphy i have seen has come from hinkie. More draft picks more chances to hit. simple as that.

I think you have to fix the odds the best you can:

1) obtain as many picks as cheaply as possible (Hextall has done so, Flyers have drafted more players than any other team the last five years, exploit GMs who undervalue later round picks).
2) invest in your scouting department, scouts (including expenses which are substantial) are still cheaper than players, improve your odds of success for each pick
3) invest in development, sports medicine, skating instructors, etc. to maximize the odds of success after a player is drafted.

I don't think you can turn 15% odds in 50%, but you might be able to increase them to 20-25%.
Combine that with more picks than the average bear and you'll end up with more success stories.

 

[lancer247]

Let.......me......post.....


AHHHHH I'm stuck in the alternate thread again. **** this website. This is downright pathetic.

Can you imagine if there was actually a big trade made how f-ed this site would have been.

 

[Jtown]

I think you have to fix the odds the best you can:

1) obtain as many picks as cheaply as possible (Hextall has done so, Flyers have drafted more players than any other team the last five years, exploit GMs who undervalue later round picks).
2) invest in your scouting department, scouts (including expenses which are substantial) are still cheaper than players, improve your odds of success for each pick
3) invest in development, sports medicine, skating instructors, etc. to maximize the odds of success after a player is drafted.

I don't think you can turn 15% odds in 50%, but you might be able to increase them to 20-25%.
Combine that with more picks than the average bear and you'll end up with more success stories.

show me throughout modern history where an organization has been able to draft 10 percent better than their opponents in any sport.... with draft position taken into account. This is what i am talking about. There is this belief that if you do this or that that it will lead to better results. But all you would be doing is hiring more scouts that dont know how to predict the future.

i remember a few years ago there was a canucks blog i believe that basically re did every one of their picks , and based their picks on 1 criteria alone. Best ppg in the chl. Turns out that method delivered them far better results than what their current staff was able to produce.

 

[Magua]

Little concerning he admitted they were looking for a "defensive" guy. Defensive defenseman is such an archaic term. Just pick the best damn one.

This is a direct quote from Hextall after Day 1:

"I’ve never been one to be safe. I don’t think it’s a good philosophy, I don’t think you can be successful that way."

From his ultra-conservative coach (both in 18th century customs and hockey strategy) to the ultra-safe Day 2 draft to plenty of other areas, it's not a very self-aware statement.

 

[wasup]

Sanheim was a two-time AAA midget all-star and had played in two international tournaments for Canada before his draft, not to mention he had just had a huge growth spurt, springing up to 6'3", and could skate like the wind.

Sanheim also had been 17 for his entire draft year regular season, which was his first season of major junior (put up 29 points). Wylie turned 18 five or six weeks after the beginning of his draft year regular season, which was his second season of major junior (Wylie put up only 10 points the year prior, when he was 17). Wylie doesn't have Sanheim's size or raw physical attributes, and to my knowledge didn't undergo a sudden growth spurt.

So while Wylie may be a late bloomer in the WHL, I'm not seeing the Sanheim-type of blossoming, physical attributes, or success for his age that would indicate high upside at the NHL level.

Okay it's time to get the crap actually straight on all this Sanheim stuff . I have a kid about his age so have seen him several times over several years . This crap he came out of no where is a load of shit , the fact's are there was no AAA bantam league outside of Winnipeg so the lazy frickin WHL scouts who were based out of Winnipeg spent little to no time outside the perimeter looking for players . Sanheim has always been a great skater and fab hockey player the fact he was drafted in the 9th round by Calgary was a complete joke percipitated by lazy scouting. He went out to Calgary for camp after his first year of midget and was just passed over cause he was a 9th round pick and never given a look or a chance. When he went back the next year they could not help but take him and had a slow start cause he was not given a chance to succeed off the start cause he was not one of their choosen ones. Eventually he got a chance and the rest is history , the fact is lots of kids who are drafted lower down never get a chance to prove themselves . Organizations are to worrying about covering their own asses and look bad if kids they draft early don't work out it makes them look bad and in junior you only have 2-3 years to prove yourself then it's over .
Hockey Canada is no different it is run by the CHL and has agenda's all over the place . Sanheim always was a great player but you have to get the opportunity to prove that and lot's don't .
Manitoba set up a AAA bantam system a few years later so kids like this are seen now and as a side note there is only one WHL team in Manitoba, 5 in Saskatchewan ,5 in Alberta ,5 in BC