Don't you feel this coming together?!! Am I dreamin?!!

[raideralex99]

If Chevy is so lucky ... maybe he can be luckily enough to win the Stanley Cup and then they can use the asterisk besides the Winnipeg Jets Stanley Cup winner (*) Lucky
Wow ... you guys are a tough crowd very hard to please.

 

[Do or Die]

Chevy is also "lucky" that he did not make some of the panic moves other GM's made, as the team slid back, a notch this season....

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Chevy is so lucky ... maybe he can be luckily enough to win the Stanley Cup and then they can use the asterisk besides the Winnipeg Jets Stanley Cup winner (*) Lucky
Wow ... you guys are a tough crowd very hard to please.

You have completely missed the point.

Has anybody stated or implied that Chevy is nothing if he wasn't lucky?
Has anybody complained that our GM has had some luck?

 

[bogostick]

Who was it here that was pumping the tires of Aho last year before the draft? Whoever you are, take a bow. That guy is going to be a VERY good player!

I'm fairly certain romang was pushing hard for sebastion aho. But it was swedish sebastion aho the undrafted defenseman.

 

[KingBogo]

I see the lottery win as less 'lucky' than some of our 1st round picks. We had, what a 1 in 10 chance at #2 in the lottery? A 1 in 10 chance WILL work for you if you buy enough tickets. Not might or maybe but WILL. Properly speaking we should have had a zero in infinity chance of getting Connor at 17. Just no way that should have happened. But it did. Now that is lucky. Winning a 1 in 10 chance sometimes is inevitable. If we finish 6th again next year we might get 9th pick. That is inevitable too, given enough tries.

I think you have it in reverse. The draft lottery was a random event, there is no other way to describe it other than luck. The actual draft has 30 teams spending millions of dollars each trying to gain an advantage over each other. Each team supposedly makes their pick based on the information the have gathered. Because some do it better than others doesn't make them lucky, it just makes some worse at it than others.

 

[raideralex99]

You have completely missed the point.

Has anybody stated or implied that Chevy is nothing if he wasn't lucky?
Has anybody complained that our GM has had some luck?

What point?
When someone says you are lucky ... they actually mean you are crap or are jealous.
Chevy has hit on all four 1st picks ... jury still out of JM but he looks to be a top 4 defenceman ... how in the world can anyone say Chevy is lucky?
[mod]
When the Jets lose a close game ... I always say the other team was lucky especially if the Jets were the better team.

 

[JetsFan815]

I'm fairly certain romang was pushing hard for sebastion aho. But it was swedish sebastion aho the undrafted defenseman.

I heard a rumor (perhaps even in the prospect thread on HFBoards) that they intended to draft the swedish Aho but accidentally drafted the finish Aho.

 

[Whileee]

You have completely missed the point.

Has anybody stated or implied that Chevy is nothing if he wasn't lucky?
Has anybody complained that our GM has had some luck?

Think of the absurdity of the converse argument... GMs with bad drafting records must be "unlucky".

Here's a thread to discuss the very positive direction the team seems to be on. Of course, there had to be some who had to chime in to discredit management by saying Chevy was lucky. Classic HF Jets; as predictable as snow in January in Winnipeg.

 

[Gm0ney]

Every team that drafts really well is "lucky". Think about it...

I don't see many here saying that Detroit was "lucky" (Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Larkin). Or Tampa Bay (Kucherov, Johnson). Or Boston (Bergeron, Krejci). It seems that all the other GMs that have drafted well are geniuses, but Chevy is "lucky". It's a strange social phenomenon.

Yes, a strange social phenomenon indeed when a simple musing about how the Jets wouldn't look as pretty if Ehlers or Connor hadn't fallen to them triggers a reaction about some imagined Chevy's-Just-Lucky narrative being foisted on naive Jets fans here...

 

[TheDeuce]

How about this?

Chevy was lucky we won the #2 draft pick this year.

Chevy was lucky that some great players (like Ehlers and Connor) fell to us in the draft.

Chevy was smart enough to take advantage of that opportunity and pick those great players, along with many other good players from later in the draft. Maybe some of these were obvious moves. But we've seen lots of guys (like Sweeny, and various Oilers GMs) make pretty big mistakes.

Chevy was smart enough to sink a lot of resources into the scouting staff.

Chevy was smart enough to trust the instincts of his scouting staff when recommending we go off the board with a player like Scheifele.

I had the opportunity to speak with Mark Chipman a few years back and I need to address the bolded.

Chipman was smart enough to sink those resources into scouting. One line he said when we met sticks out - it was (I'm paraphrasing here, it's been 4 years or so) "scouting isn't an expense - it's an investment." That comment underlined the narrative of the vision he had for the team that he shared with us that day.




m.

 

[JetsFan815]

Think of the absurdity of the converse argument... GMs with bad drafting records must be "unlucky".

Here's a thread to discuss the very positive direction the team seems to be on. Of course, there had to be some who had to chime in to discredit management by saying Chevy was lucky. Classic HF Jets; as predictable as snow in January in Winnipeg.

Who is trying to "discredit" the management? All that was pointed out was the the future wouldn't look as good if Connor or Ehlers didn't fall or if we didn't win the lottery. There is no "discrediting" going on here. The reason the prospect pool looks so good is because some guys fell to us who had no business being drafted that low. Buffalo Sabres did a scorched earth rebuild and now it seems like the Jets might have a prospect pool that is not too far off of the Sabres pool despite never really blowing it up like the Sabres. That comes down to lottery luck and getting players far later than they should have gone in the draft.

To make you happy I will say Chevy was unlucky with having Domi snatched one spot a ahead of us

 

[Gm0ney]

What point?
When someone says you are lucky ... they actually mean you are crap or are jealous.
Chevy has hit on all four 1st picks ... jury still out of JM but he looks to be a top 4 defenceman ... how in the world can anyone say Chevy is lucky?
[mod]
When the Jets lose a close game ... I always say the other team was lucky especially if the Jets were the better team.

In the case of Kyle Connor, he was ranked between 5th and 13th by every public scouting list (ISS, McKeen's, Hockey Prospect, Central Scouting, etc.) pre-draft. The TSN composite had him at 12th. PCS had him close to Top 5. Even Chevy's said they didn't expect him to be there at 17 - so they had him ranked a lot higher too. I'd say it's pretty damn lucky that there were so many off the board picks right before the Jets drafted at 17th...especially when everything was going fairly close to expected as far along as the 11th pick (FLA - Crouse). No crazy reaches up to that point. Then 4 of the next 5 picks are reaches and lo and behold, Connor falls into our lap.

The Ehlers pick was a bit different in that there wasn't an across the board consensus among the public scouting rankings that had him higher than 9th. McKeen's and Hockey Prospect had Ehlers in the Top 5. ISS and Central Scouting had him 11th and 13th. A lot of people around here were hoping the teams in front of the Jets would see things the ISS/CS way and let him fall to us - and again, it happened.

So quite a few things out of the Jets control had to go right for Connor and Ehlers to end up as Jets. I don't think it's crazy to say that! Nor is it a knock on Chevy - when opportunity knocked he opened that door.

 

[Hunter368]

In the case of Kyle Connor, he was ranked between 5th and 13th by every public scouting list (ISS, McKeen's, Hockey Prospect, Central Scouting, etc.) pre-draft. The TSN composite had him at 12th. PCS had him close to Top 5. Even Chevy's said they didn't expect him to be there at 17 - so they had him ranked a lot higher too. I'd say it's pretty damn lucky that there were so many off the board picks right before the Jets drafted at 17th...especially when everything was going fairly close to expected as far along as the 11th pick (FLA - Crouse). No crazy reaches up to that point. Then 4 of the next 5 picks are reaches and lo and behold, Connor falls into our lap.

The Ehlers pick was a bit different in that there wasn't an across the board consensus among the public scouting rankings that had him higher than 9th. McKeen's and Hockey Prospect had Ehlers in the Top 5. ISS and Central Scouting had him 11th and 13th. A lot of people around here were hoping the teams in front of the Jets would see things the ISS/CS way and let him fall to us - and again, it happened.

So quite a few things out of the Jets control had to go right for Connor and Ehlers to end up as Jets. I don't think it's crazy to say that! Nor is it a knock on Chevy - when opportunity knocked he opened that door.

Exactly. Not to mention winning the lottery, helps and is pure luck. I'll call Chevy "Captain Opportunity".

 

[Puckatron 3000]

I had the opportunity to speak with Mark Chipman a few years back and I need to address the bolded.

Chipman was smart enough to sink those resources into scouting. One line he said when we met sticks out - it was (I'm paraphrasing here, it's been 4 years or so) "scouting isn't an expense - it's an investment." That comment underlined the narrative of the vision he had for the team that he shared with us that day.




m.

For sure, Chipman, as a business guy and investor, is the one putting up the cash. I'm sure he also had significant input into that decision. I would assume that Chevy also has some input on how to allocate the financial resources of the team, though. Especially relating to drafting.

So maybe joint credit deserved?

 

[Whileee]

Who is trying to "discredit" the management? All that was pointed out was the the future wouldn't look as good if Connor or Ehlers didn't fall or if we didn't win the lottery. There is no "discrediting" going on here. The reason the prospect pool looks so good is because some guys fell to us who had no business being drafted that low. Buffalo Sabres did a scorched earth rebuild and now it seems like the Jets might have a prospect pool that is not too far off of the Sabres pool despite never really blowing it up like the Sabres. That comes down to lottery luck and getting players far later than they should have gone in the draft.

To make you happy I will say Chevy was unlucky with having Domi snatched one spot a ahead of us

Draft picks are researched decisions, not random allocations. If Chevy is drafting better players than others, even later in the round it means he's making better decisions than the other GMs. Or you could say that Chevy is "lucky" that he's smarter at drafting than a lot of the GMs. Draft success is relative to the choices of other GMs, not a game of chance between GMs.

 

[Gm0ney]

Who is trying to "discredit" the management? All that was pointed out was the the future wouldn't look as good if Connor or Ehlers didn't fall or if we didn't win the lottery. There is no "discrediting" going on here. The reason the prospect pool looks so good is because some guys fell to us who had no business being drafted that low. Buffalo Sabres did a scorched earth rebuild and now it seems like the Jets might have a prospect pool that is not too far off of the Sabres pool despite never really blowing it up like the Sabres. That comes down to lottery luck and getting players far later than they should have gone in the draft.

To make you happy I will say Chevy was unlucky with having Domi snatched one spot a ahead of us

Actually, for a team not doing a "scorched earth" or bottom-out rebuild, the Jets, prior to this year, had the 5th highest average first pick since 2011. If we include the 2016 draft (with the 2nd overall pick), the Jets will move up to the 3rd highest average first pick since 2011 (behind only Edmonton and Buffalo). If we go back to the "start of the rebuild" in Atlanta in 2008, the Thrashers/Jets franchise has the 2nd highest average first pick from 2008-2016 behind only Edmonton.

So really, we should expect the Jets to have done fairly well with their first round picks during Chevy's tenure even with average draft luck. But the Jets have been having very good luck, so our prospect pool is even better than you'd expect...and that's all good news!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What point?
When someone says you are lucky ... they actually mean you are crap or are jealous.
Chevy has hit on all four 1st picks ... jury still out of JM but he looks to be a top 4 defenceman ... how in the world can anyone say Chevy is lucky?
[mod]
When the Jets lose a close game ... I always say the other team was lucky especially if the Jets were the better team.

No. That is not what it means to be lucky.

Chevy couldn't have made ANY of those good picks if he hadn't been LUCKY enough to draft after 'crap' drafters who passed over those good picks. The lucky are not crap. They are the beneficiaries of crap. We don't get Connor if Sweeney takes him first. That makes Sweeney crap and Chevy lucky. Unless Chevy arranged for Connor to fall to him at 17 he was lucky.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think you have it in reverse. The draft lottery was a random event, there is no other way to describe it other than luck. The actual draft has 30 teams spending millions of dollars each trying to gain an advantage over each other. Each team supposedly makes their pick based on the information the have gathered. Because some do it better than others doesn't make them lucky, it just makes some worse at it than others.

Except that that the draft lottery was anything but random. It was very carefully controlled and followed a clear pattern. Each number drawn having the same chance of being drawn doesn't make it random. That is a characteristic that is used to distribute the results according to the pattern required.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Think of the absurdity of the converse argument... GMs with bad drafting records must be "unlucky".

Here's a thread to discuss the very positive direction the team seems to be on. Of course, there had to be some who had to chime in to discredit management by saying Chevy was lucky. Classic HF Jets; as predictable as snow in January in Winnipeg.

OK. This is the part that is beginning to get up my nose. It is not discrediting anybody to acknowledge the reality that without a certain amount of good fortune he could not have done what he did. It is a cosmic truth that Chevy could not possibly have drafted Connor if Sweeney had drafted him first. Therefore good fortune played a part. If acknowledging that discredits Chevy then Chevy gets discredited. But it doesn't discredit him in any way. It is simply reality. And it is as undeniable as that the sun rises in the East.

If you are a farmer who planted a crop and got exactly enough rain and enough sunshine and good weather for harvest and high prices you are lucky. Does that make you a crap farmer?

Every GM who got to pick a player who should have gone earlier was lucky. Every GM who drafted a player who failed to perform up to the level the evidence indicated was unlucky. The Jets were unlucky that Bogo and Kane did not live up to expectations. They were unlucky that the Thrashers overestimated Burmi. Why? Because they had no control over those things. Just like Chevy had no control over Sweeney. When things happen beyond your control you are either lucky or unlucky depending on the nature of the thing that happened.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Actually, for a team not doing a "scorched earth" or bottom-out rebuild, the Jets, prior to this year, had the 5th highest average first pick since 2011. If we include the 2016 draft (with the 2nd overall pick), the Jets will move up to the 3rd highest average first pick since 2011 (behind only Edmonton and Buffalo). If we go back to the "start of the rebuild" in Atlanta in 2008, the Thrashers/Jets franchise has the 2nd highest average first pick from 2008-2016 behind only Edmonton.

So really, we should expect the Jets to have done fairly well with their first round picks during Chevy's tenure even with average draft luck. But the Jets have been having very good luck, so our prospect pool is even better than you'd expect...and that's all good news!

It is interesting to look at how the Jets rebuilt "on the fly" vs. the scorched earth approach of say Toronto. Both are looking fairly promising at this point. It'll be interesting to see how both approaches pan out. And whether one method is eventually viewed as better than the other.

Perhaps it depends on the situation. Like whether the market can withstand a bottom out. Or whether there are any pre-rebuild players worth keeping.

Honestly though, it'll be tough to say anything concretely. As both the Toronto and Winnipeg GMs largely relied on the luck of getting a #1 and #2 draft pick. This is the "lucky GMs" thread, right?

 

[KingBogo]

Except that that the draft lottery was anything but random. It was very carefully controlled and followed a clear pattern. Each number drawn having the same chance of being drawn doesn't make it random. That is a characteristic that is used to distribute the results according to the pattern required.

That's the exact definition of randomness. Definition: The fields of mathematics, probability, and statistics use formal definitions of randomness. In statistics, a random variable is an assignment of a numerical value to each possible outcome of an event space. This association facilitates the identification and the calculation of probabilities of the events.

Randomness ensures all outcomes are unpredictable in the short term, but conform to long term probabilities with enough trials (law of large numbers). That is short term unpredictability, long term predictability.

 

[KingBogo]

OK. This is the part that is beginning to get up my nose. It is not discrediting anybody to acknowledge the reality that without a certain amount of good fortune he could not have done what he did. It is a cosmic truth that Chevy could not possibly have drafted Connor if Sweeney had drafted him first. Therefore good fortune played a part. If acknowledging that discredits Chevy then Chevy gets discredited. But it doesn't discredit him in any way. It is simply reality. And it is as undeniable as that the sun rises in the East.

If you are a farmer who planted a crop and got exactly enough rain and enough sunshine and good weather for harvest and high prices you are lucky. Does that make you a crap farmer?

Every GM who got to pick a player who should have gone earlier was lucky. Every GM who drafted a player who failed to perform up to the level the evidence indicated was unlucky. The Jets were unlucky that Bogo and Kane did not live up to expectations. They were unlucky that the Thrashers overestimated Burmi. Why? Because they had no control over those things. Just like Chevy had no control over Sweeney. When things happen beyond your control you are either lucky or unlucky depending on the nature of the thing that happened.

You have a pretty broad definition of luck. Everything that turns out better than originally expected is lucky and everything that turns out worse is unlucky. It does keep things simple.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Chevy is also "lucky" that he did not make some of the panic moves other GM's made, as the team slid back, a notch this season....

We're lucky Chevy signed Stuart and Thorburn to one way contracts.
We're lucky Chevy recognized great goaltending and signed Pavs
long term.
We're lucky Chevy realizes the importance of special teams and extended the ST coaching.
I realize he has done good things however he is not the only GM who drafts well.
He has taken opportunities presented and made what appear to be wise choices.
It's the first 3 I mentioned which to me makes Chevy an enigma.

 

[Whileee]

OK. This is the part that is beginning to get up my nose. It is not discrediting anybody to acknowledge the reality that without a certain amount of good fortune he could not have done what he did. It is a cosmic truth that Chevy could not possibly have drafted Connor if Sweeney had drafted him first. Therefore good fortune played a part. If acknowledging that discredits Chevy then Chevy gets discredited. But it doesn't discredit him in any way. It is simply reality. And it is as undeniable as that the sun rises in the East.

If you are a farmer who planted a crop and got exactly enough rain and enough sunshine and good weather for harvest and high prices you are lucky. Does that make you a crap farmer?

Every GM who got to pick a player who should have gone earlier was lucky. Every GM who drafted a player who failed to perform up to the level the evidence indicated was unlucky. The Jets were unlucky that Bogo and Kane did not live up to expectations. They were unlucky that the Thrashers overestimated Burmi. Why? Because they had no control over those things. Just like Chevy had no control over Sweeney. When things happen beyond your control you are either lucky or unlucky depending on the nature of the thing that happened.

I seem to have hit a nerve. Sorry if my resistance to this line of thinking has rankled. I just don't agree with your definition of "luck". If you have a racing circuit and one driver wins more than others because he doesn't spin out and crash as much as they do because he's a better driver, is he "lucky" that the other drivers spin out more often, or is he just a better driver?

To me, "luck" is beating the odds in a random process where everyone has an equal chance of success. Taking advantage of competitors' mistakes in a competitive market by making fewer mistakes isn't the same as "luck". The flaw in your argument is that you have no counter-factual to suggest that the Jets would not have done just as well in drafting if the other GMs had made different selections ahead of them. For example, if Ehlers had been chosen and the Jets selected Larkin instead, you might still ascribe it to "luck" that other teams didn't choose him before the Jets. Similarly, if Connor was gone when the Jets selected, and they chose Aho instead that wouldn't have been "luck". If Trouba had been gone when they selected, they might have ended up with Forsberg instead.

In any case, on this board I have never seen the draft success of other teams like Detroit or TB being described as "luck". Not surprisingly, when it turns out that the Jets have ended up with what is now almost universally considered one of the best prospect pools and young talent in the NHL, some on this board decide to down-play the success with the term "luck". I have not once heard the many commentators and draft analysts from around the NHL describe the Jets as being "lucky" at drafting. Instead, they tend to praise the thoroughness and approach of the Jets' scouting staff for their success. It seems that only some posters on HFB Jets that seem to want to ascribe the success in putting together a top-grade prospect pool as "luck".

 

[Whileee]

You have a pretty broad definition of luck. Everything that turns out better than originally expected is lucky and everything that turns out worse is unlucky. It does keep things simple.

Exactly. It's like saying that some teams are good because they have "lucky" management teams, and some teams are bad because they have "unlucky" management teams. Instead of grading Chevy on his success and failures, we should just have polls to decide how lucky or unlucky he's been.