Does the draft lottery system need to change?

[Hynh]

It seemed the Edmonton media was tough on him.

A first overall was going to get media attention in any strong hockey market. It's funny that Burke said this about Yakupov but he also defended Edmonton taking Puljujarvi when Puljujarvi actually does have attitude issues.

 

[LeafsNation75]

A first overall was going to get media attention in any strong hockey market. It's funny that Burke said this about Yakupov but he also defended Edmonton taking Puljujarvi when Puljujarvi actually does have attitude issues.

I can't speak for why Burke doesn't say anything about Puljujarvi. However there is a difference in being a 4th overall pick who might have not worked out, compared to be a 1st overall pick who didn't work out.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

It was done differently this year for obvious reasons, so if you're asking if it needs to change from this year, it will change.

If you are asking if it needs to change from what it normally is, I don't think so.

 

[ole ole]

Does the draft lottery system need to change?

Give the low teams SLIGHTLY better odds.

 

[JaegerDice]

I have never and will never understand the disgust at the concept of tanking.

If a team is willing to take on the financial and pr burden of telling their fans they're going to suck intentionally in the short term to make themselves better in the long term, then let them do it. All it does is create another race parallel to the playoff race for fandoms to be excited about.

Nobody other than the owners is paying the price for it, let teams do the smart, tactical thing.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I have never and will never understand the disgust at the concept of tanking.

If a team is willing to take on the financial and pr burden of telling their fans they're going to suck intentionally in the short term to make themselves better in the long term, then let them do it. All it does is create another race parallel to the playoff race for fandoms to be excited about.

Nobody other than the owners is paying the price for it, let teams do the smart, tactical thing.

In February 2015 Brendan Shanahan got permission to do a full rebuild with the Maple Leafs and they didn't tank in an obvious way like the Sabres did trying to get Connor McDavid. When they finished last place overall in 2015-16 they had 69 points and was 1 point less then the Oilers who had 70 points.

Report: MLSE approves 'scorched-earth' rebuild - Sportsnet.ca

 

[JaegerDice]

In February 2015 Brendan Shanahan got permission to do a full rebuild with the Maple Leafs and they didn't tank in an obvious why like the Sabres did trying to get Connor McDavid. When they finished last place overall in 2015-16 they had 69 points and was 1 point less then the Oilers who had 70 points.

Report: MLSE approves 'scorched-earth' rebuild - Sportsnet.ca

I'm a fan of the Leafs rebuild, but it was still a tank. Every player brought on was done so with the express purpose of selling them off at the deadline for future assets. All their major stars were traded.

And you know what? It worked.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I'm a fan of the Leafs rebuild, but it was still a tank. Every player brought on was done so with the express purpose of selling them off at the deadline for future assets. All their major stars were traded.

And you know what? It worked.

Yes it was a tank but they didn't trade every player possible who was about to become a UFA. In fact here is a link to a list of all the trades they made during the 2015-16 season.

History of NHL trades by the Toronto Maple Leafs for 2015-16 - NHL Trade Tracker

However among their players that season who they didn't trade and were going to be UFA's was Michael Grabner, P.A. Parenteau, and Brady Boyes. So they didn't trade them just for the sake of it and I remember reading a report they could have traded Parenteau for a 3rd round pick, however Lou Lamoriello wanted a 2nd round pick.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I have never and will never understand the disgust at the concept of tanking.

If a team is willing to take on the financial and pr burden of telling their fans they're going to suck intentionally in the short term to make themselves better in the long term, then let them do it. All it does is create another race parallel to the playoff race for fandoms to be excited about.

Nobody other than the owners is paying the price for it, let teams do the smart, tactical thing.

The irony also being I don't think fans who say they're disgusted by it will suddenly boycott if their own team did it.

It seems to usually be a complaint of fans of middle tier teams -- not bad enough to get a top pick, not good enough to win the Cup -- so they can thump their chests about how their team always finishes in a playoff spot (but loses in round 1) being more impressive than a team that had to get a 1st overall pick in order to have success.

 

[MikeyMike01]

The lottery system is the reason the Oilers has so many 1st overalls. They only finished last twice (Hall and Nugent-Hopkins).

Get rid of the lottery completely.

 

[Dr Salt]

Imo the lottery should only be for picks one and two.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Yes absolutely. First of all, this negative connotation with tanking makes no sense, do people honestly think that fans enjoy watching a team tank all season? No, nobody wants to lose, but if you aren't going to make the playoffs, what else do you want teams to do? It's completely stupid to expect all 31 teams to be trying their best to be competitive, it just isn't going to happen, no matter what lottery system they have in place.

What I REALLY don't understand, is what the expected result to be with the lottery system? Okay great, so teams know they can't tank for first overall, so let's just pretend that's eliminated tanking. Now all you have are genuinely bad teams like Detroit or Ottawa, or San Jose if they had their pick, getting stuck at the bottom of the standings for even longer because they aren't able to land that franchise player they desperately need. If there wasn't a lottery at all, in theory the parity in the league would increase, because usually a 1st overall pick will accelerate a rebuild substantially.

So I would like them to remove the lottery entirely, or if they really want to throw these bubble teams a bone, then make it so you can only move up 4 or 5 spots.

 

[HarryLime]

I've been thinking about this a lot and I feel bad for Ottawa/Detroit. I would lump Vancouver in there too, but their excellent drafting has made a lot of the pain go away, and they actually came away with better picks quite often (except Juolevi). People saying Benning is a rotten GM on here are looking insane now in 2020. I was rooting for Ottawa/Detroit/Montreal/Rangers because I wanna see him go to a team that doesn't win these type of things, and frankly... to a team with passionate fans, where hockey is part of the city culture.

Unfortunately for those teams, organizations like Buffalo and Edmonton have made the league change the process because they continually took advantage of it and kept netting the top picks while never improving. For Edmonton, of course the process changes right after they get McDavid (4th #1 pick), and they STILL drafted 4th the next season. Buffalo may have only won this once but they have been in the lottery game for a long time. Same with Arizona. At some point you have to spread the wealth and send a message. Edmonton picked 1-1-1-7-3-1-4. That is an absolute joke. That's the reason why the system was changed. You didn't have to change the system you just had to implement a system where the same team can't harvest the top picks EVERY YEAR until they FINALLY get the #1 pick they can't possibly mess up.


What I would do is go back to the old lottery system where teams that are very bad have a much better chance to win the lottery. However, the last 2-3 lotteries should be weighted. Meaning... if a team has won the lottery they can't win it again for 2-3 years.

I hope Ottawa/Detroit can pull a Cale Maker, Elias Peterson out of their hats this season. At this point I am hoping Lafrienere goes to Montreal even if they are division rivals. Hockey is better when the Habs are good, and im kinda sick of seeing the historically great teams with passionate fans be mediocre while teams like Tampa Bay are a powerhouse. Tampa picked 1st and got Vinny. Won a cup had a few bad years and got Stamkos, Hedman and Drouin. I feel like it's Montreals time to finally get some luck.

 

[GAGLine]

It sucks for teams like Detroit who had a truly awful year, then fall 3 spots in the draft, but they will still get a very good player at 4. It sucks worse for those teams who are actually trying to make the playoffs every year and are stuck in the middle with no way to break out of it other than to completely tear it down. Missing the playoffs doesn't suck less just because your team finished 17th instead of 31st. It actually sucks more, because you were close, didn't make it, and aren't likely to get a top pick even with the odds as they are right now.

The current system is fine. Every team that misses the playoffs should have some hope of getting a top 3 pick.

 

[tucker3434]

They overreacted to the oilers. Most of the time, terrible teams should be picking first.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

It sucks for teams like Detroit who had a truly awful year, then fall 3 spots in the draft, but they will still get a very good player at 4. It sucks worse for those teams who are actually trying to make the playoffs every year and are stuck in the middle with no way to break out of it other than to completely tear it down. Missing the playoffs doesn't suck less just because your team finished 17th instead of 31st. It actually sucks more, because you were close, didn't make it, and aren't likely to get a top pick even with the odds as they are right now.

The current system is fine. Every team that misses the playoffs should have some hope of getting a top 3 pick.

In the NHL, any team can make a decent run in the playoffs once they're in. It doesn't suck for those teams because if they make the playoffs they could actually have a decent run.

 

[bert]

Keep it. It's way more interesting now. I'd be down to have even more places drawn

Its clearly flawed. Ottawa has finished bottom 2, three years in a row and wont have a pick higher than 4th. Its not working.

 

[Meeqs]

I think it just needs small tweaks that's it.

I would keep the odds the same but make it so that a team that wins the lotto can't jump up more than 5 spots.

Keeps the lower teams the same but makes it so a team that barely missed doesn't jump all the way into the top 3 but still gives all the teams that miss incentive and a good story.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Its clearly flawed. Ottawa has finished bottom 2, three years in a row and wont have a pick higher than 4th. Its not working.

While Ottawa did finish last place overall in 2018-19 it was Colorado who owned their 1st round pick, so it wouldn't have mattered to them where their pick would have ended up since they didn't own it.

Hell they only got the 3rd overall pick this year because they owned San Jose's 2020 1st round pick, since that jumped up two spots.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Yes,
If you won first overall the year before the best pick you should be able to win in the following year is 2nd overall, if you won it once in the last 3 years your odds should be sliced in half.

Teams outside of the top 10, have no business selecting first overall while a team like detroit is picking 4th its a spit in the face to their franchise. I like the teams that win the lotto cant jump more than 5 spots. so only the bottom 6 teams have a real shot at #1.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

The way it is makes things very fair in order to address the tanking situation. That being said, the odds should be increased for the bottom-5 teams.

 

[bert]

While Ottawa did finish last place overall in 2018-19 it was Colorado who owned their 1st round pick, so it wouldn't have mattered to them where their pick would have ended up since they didn't own it.

Hell they only got the 3rd overall pick this year because they owned San Jose's 2020 1st round pick, since that jumped up two spots.

The point is that a team with 3 straight bottom 2 finishes never ended up with a pick higher than 4th. I am well aware of San Jose's pick and that Colorado had Ottawa's. San Jose's pick didnt move.......

Do you not understand the premise of my explanation. The point of the draft is to improve that bad teams. Ottawa's three straight seasons of moving down substantially show the system is not achieving what it is supposed to.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Teams outside of the top 10, have no business selecting first overall while a team like detroit is picking 4th its a spit in the face to their franchise. I like the teams that win the lotto cant jump more than 5 spots. so only the bottom 6 teams have a real shot at #1.

The problem with that is what if the team who finished 7th worst was 1 point behind the team who finished 6th worst. Why should they be punished and not given a chance to win the 1st overall pick?

For the 2008 and 2009 draft lottery's Toronto finished 24th overall in both those years. However because you could only move up 4 spots that meant they could not win the 1st overall pick and had no chance at selecting Steven Stamkos or John Tavares. Plus in 2009 they finished with 81 points and were 2 points ahead Los Angeles who had 79 points and in the bottom 5 with a chance to get the 1st pick.

 

[Regal]

Its clearly flawed. Ottawa has finished bottom 2, three years in a row and wont have a pick higher than 4th. Its not working.

That depends on what you think the intent is. On the surface it's presented as preventing another Edmonton situation, but I think they're really doing it for fan interest and discussion. Clearly that's working. The Canucks have been bad for over half their 50 year history and have no first overalls and only 4 top 2 picks so I don't have a lot of sympathy for draft lottery failure.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The point is that a team with 3 straight bottom 2 finishes never ended up with a pick higher than 4th. I am well aware of San Jose's pick and that Colorado had Ottawa's. San Jose's pick didnt move.......

Do you not understand the premise of my explanation. The point of the draft is to improve that bad teams. Ottawa's three straight seasons of moving down substantially show the system is not achieving what it is supposed to.

My mistake for thinking San Jose's pick moved up to 3rd overall for Ottawa.

I also know the draft is to improve the bad teams and I guess Ottawa has been unlucky that their picks dropped in 2018 and 2020, although at least having San Jose's pick makes it a little easier.