Does Perry Need A Strong Finish to His Career to be A HHOF'er?

[trentmccleary]

I think you made a post outlining the numbers of players selected to the HHOF from three or four different draft decades in response to one of my polls. Do you still have that information?

I think when it's all said and done, Perry may be a top 10-15 scorer from his draft decade.

I have it at home; will try and retrieve from dead laptop.

He's currently 12th from his draft decade and is being chased down by guys like Tavares, Giroux, Stamkos, etc.

 

[Nick Hansen]

I never watched this guy play and thought to myself that this guy is a future HHOFer.

 

[DitchMarner]

I never watched this guy play and thought to myself that this guy is a future HHOFer.

[yt]



He looks like a Hall of Famer compared to these guys at least.

 

[Thenameless]

You wouldn't induct Perry even though he has a Hart and a Rocket Richard, but you think Carbonneau should be in the HHOF based on three Selkes?

Yes, that's right. I agree that offense is more important, so no argument there. I think defensive specialists generally still get underrated though. Specifically in this case, Carbonneau was much better and more consistent at what he was good at, than Perry was. The one year Perry peak is nice to have, but not enough for me - and I agree that most Hart winners should automatically go to the Hall. Carbonneau was on 3 Cup winners, and while no one would consider him the best player on any of those teams, he was instrumental in limiting the best offensive players on opposing teams during those Cup runs. He also had a penchant for scoring timely goals in the playoffs.

 

[DitchMarner]

Yes, that's right. I agree that offense is more important, so no argument there. I think defensive specialists generally still get underrated though. Specifically in this case, Carbonneau was much better and more consistent at what he was good at, than Perry was. The one year Perry peak is nice to have, but not enough for me - and I agree that most Hart winners should automatically go to the Hall. Carbonneau was on 3 Cup winners, and while no one would consider him the best player on any of those teams, he was instrumental in limiting the best offensive players on opposing teams during those Cup runs. He also had a penchant for scoring timely goals in the playoffs.

Fair enough. I think Perry will have a reasonably good chance at induction based on his competition from his draft decade. Will go into more detail about this in the future.

 

[Thenameless]

That's true. Even a guy like Jere Lehtinen. He was one of the best defensive forwards for a good decade.

I mean I don't like the comparison, but your comparing a guy who was consistently one of the top defensive forwards in the game, with 3 Selkes.....to a guy who achieved so much in one season, but not much else.

His triple gold, Olympic medals, and stanley cup are honestly all nice awards, especially for a HOFer....but he is also extremely fortunate to have been Canadian and a good enough player to make those teams. It's hard to determine the value or talent of a player based on team awards, and his team trophy case makes him look way more prestigious than he actually is.

Yes, this is exactly how I feel. Let's get something straight here. Perry was selected 28th overall in his draft year. That was a steal. I would be happy if my first overall ended up being as good as/producing like he has. I would love to have him on my team. But as has been said above, his trophy case looks much better than "how good he really is". It wouldn't bother me if he got into the Hall, but my personal opinion is that he's "not quite there". Now, his career is not over...

 

[MisterNoItAll]

Absolutely not.

and

Probably not (unless you actually meant 100, in which case, you got it) and absolutely not to the 500 goals thing. How old do you think Perry is...?

I made a mistake, meant to add an extra 0, which you already knew though. He'll hit 1000 points, and probably 500 goals. He's 32, and is sitting at 351 goals, if he plays until 40, he only needs to average 18 goals/season to achieve 500 (very realistic). Throughout his career he's manage exactly 32 goals/season. he'll end his career very near or just above 500 goals, easily over 100 points, and with the hardware that he's already got, he'll be a lock. Maybe not a first ballot, but he's certainly getting in at some point.

 

[Michael Farkas]

You think a player with his style of play and his skating plays til 40? I would take up a bet against that too...name the wager, I would empty my bank account on this one...

 

[quoipourquoi]

He hasn't had that many great seasons and he's mostly played full seasons.

Currently, his 5th best point total was 62 points.
Doan's was 63, Smyth's was 61 and Guerin's was 56.
Despite the Hart, I'd need more convincing to say that he was appreciably better than those types of guys.

62 points in a year where being a point-per-game player makes you a top-5 scorer. In Doan's 63, the threshold was 95, and unlike Perry, Doan was not among the league's top goal scorers that year the way Perry was in 2016.

In Guerin's 56, the top-5 broke 102, and in Smythe's 61, the threshold was 97. Probably not equal seasons.

 

[Thenameless]

You think a player with his style of play and his skating plays til 40? I would take up a bet against that too...name the wager, I would empty my bank account on this one...

I was thinking along the same lines. I don't see Perry playing 'til 40 either.

 

[trentmccleary]

62 points in a year where being a point-per-game player makes you a top-5 scorer. In Doan's 63, the threshold was 95, and unlike Perry, Doan was not among the league's top goal scorers that year the way Perry was in 2016.

In Guerin's 56, the top-5 broke 102, and in Smythe's 61, the threshold was 97. Probably not equal seasons.

I have (5th bestseason)
Smyth 2003 = 2.65 avg gpg
Perry 2016 = 2.71 avg gpg
Doan 2001 = 2.76 avg gpg
Guerin 2007 = 2.95 avg gpg

Only Guerin really stands out as lucky and his top-4 seasons were all awful offensive years. Perry posted 3 of his 4 70+ point seasons during the 4-6th best offensive seasons of the past 20 years. He's also had Getzlaf around throughout, which those guys didn't consistently have throughout their careers.

Anyways, it was just one season to say that Perry's career doesn't yet have the depth of quality seasons to look like a HHOF'er.

 

[DitchMarner]

He's also had Getzlaf around throughout, which those guys didn't consistently have throughout their careers.

I think one thing people are forgetting is that Getzlaf had a very disappointing season by his standards in 2012, scoring 57 points and only 11 goal in 82 games.

Perry dropped from 98 points to 60 but still had 37 goals. If Getz had found the back of the more often, Perry would have had more than 23 assists that season.

Additionally, his points per game averages in 2013 (0.82, 36 p in 44 gp) and 2015 (0.82, 55 p in 67 gp) project to 67 points in 82 games

As the 70 point mark seems to be a big deal, it should be noted that the lockout and games missed in 2013 and games missed in 2016 may have kept Perry from posting close to 70 points in those seasons.

 

[trentmccleary]

I ran the 13 best era-adjusted seasons for Lecavalier up to 32yo (this season for Perry).
990-413-522-935
864-384-396-780 (Perry's best 11 adjusted)
126-29-126-155 (difference to make up)

Vs. Rick Nash, who is 11 months older
(12 best unadjusted seasons)
Perry = 886-349-368-717
Nash = 862-378-319-697

Nash isn't a HHOF'er and could have only dreamed of spending his entire career with Getzlaf.

 

[Johnny Engine]

I made a mistake, meant to add an extra 0, which you already knew though. He'll hit 1000 points, and probably 500 goals. He's 32, and is sitting at 351 goals, if he plays until 40, he only needs to average 18 goals/season to achieve 500 (very realistic). Throughout his career he's manage exactly 32 goals/season. he'll end his career very near or just above 500 goals, easily over 100 points, and with the hardware that he's already got, he'll be a lock. Maybe not a first ballot, but he's certainly getting in at some point.

To be more realistic about it, if he hits 30 this season, and 20 at age 37, with something resembling a linear decline in between there, that's 500 goals on the dot. As Mike Farkas noted, he's more than likely to take a steep tumble at some point, so you'd want a couple of 35 or 40 goal seasons for the road before you're calling that a lock.

 

[MS]

He looks pretty solidly in to me.

- Hart Trophy
- Richard Trophy
- 2x First-Team All-Star
- Cup ring on a team where he was the 2nd-leading playoff scorer.
- 5x top-10 in goals
- 2x top-5 in points
- 2x Olympic Gold medalist
- WJC gold, World Championships Gold, Memorial Cup champion (and Memorial Cup MVP)
- One-team player who will retire as one of the most important players in the history of that franchise and finish with ~1000 points with that one team.

If he doesn't make it, that's the best resume of any non-HHOF player.

Forget bad inductees like Gillies and Duff. That's clearly a better resume than modern wingers like Bure, Neely, McDonald, Anderson, Ciccarelli, Barber, Shutt and centers like Lafontaine, Savard, Sittler, Federko.

When you can that easily name that many players in the last 30 years he comes ahead of ... he's going to be in.

The only reason for not inducting him is that his by-season scoring totals 'seem low' ... because he played in the lowest-scoring era in modern NHL history.

 

[DitchMarner]

I ran the 13 best era-adjusted seasons for Lecavalier up to 32yo (this season for Perry).
990-413-522-935
864-384-396-780 (Perry's best 11 adjusted)
126-29-126-155 (difference to make up)

Vs. Rick Nash, who is 11 months older
(12 best unadjusted seasons)
Perry = 886-349-368-717
Nash = 862-378-319-697

Nash isn't a HHOF'er and could have only dreamed of spending his entire career with Getzlaf.

Seriously, someone needs to do one of these comparisons between Perry and guys like McDonald, Ciccarelli, Mullen, Nieuwendyk, Neely.

I will when I get home if no one else is going to.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Seventieslord, can you disclose how he stacks up in terms of VsX scores in "ten best seasons" comparisons with the following players: McDonald, Mullen, Ciccarelli, Neely and Nieuwendyk?

Ten years VsX
Perry - 69.8
McDonald - 68.0
Mullen - 66.6
Neely - 53.7
Nieuwendyk - 66.3

Seven years VsX
Perry - 75.0
McDonald - 74.1
Mullen - 71.6
Nieuwendyk - 70.3
Neely - 63.4

 

[DitchMarner]

Ten years VsX
Perry - 69.8
McDonald - 68.0
Mullen - 66.6
Neely - 53.7
Nieuwendyk - 66.3

Seven years VsX
Perry - 75.0
McDonald - 74.1
Mullen - 71.6
Nieuwendyk - 70.3
Neely - 63.4

Thank you, Hockey Outsider.

That pretty much confirms what I suspected: that he holds his own against those players quite well.

Then there's the fact that Perry has two top five points finishes and all those players have zero and the fact that he has more top ten goals finishes than any of them except Nieuwendyk (who also finished in the top ten for goals five times but didn't finish in the top ten for points at all).

 

[trentmccleary]

He looks pretty solidly in to me.

- Hart Trophy
- Richard Trophy
- 2x First-Team All-Star
- Cup ring o

If he doesn't make it, that's the best resume of any non-HHOF player.

Forget bad inductees like Gillies and Duff. That's clearly a better resume than modern wingers like Bure, Neely, McDonald, Anderson, Ciccarelli, Barber, Shutt and centers like Lafontaine, Savard, Sittler, Federko.

When you can that easily name that many players in the last 30 years he comes ahead of ... he's going to be in.

The only reason for not inducting him is that his by-season scoring totals 'seem low' ... because he played in the lowest-scoring era in modern NHL history.

The 7 years from 1998-2004 averaged 2.66 gpg. The 7 years from 2011-2017 averaged 2.74 gpg.

With the slight exception of 3-4 seasons, scoring has remained relatively stable.

 

[DitchMarner]

As for Perry versus Nash and Lecavalier...

Nash is in major decline. He's from my city and I hope he turns things around, but he looks pretty much finished as any sort of a remotely relevant player. Nash hasn't performed well in the playoffs for a player of his ability and that's one of his major downfalls. Perry will only put further distance between himself and Nash.

Lecavalier will likely end up with better offensive numbers (although not as many top five points finishes or top ten goals finishes) than Perry, but Perry will make a more appealing choice for the HHOF than Vinny. It's the same with guys like Staal and Spezza: They may be somewhat better offensively, but they won't have the individual awards or the international resume that Perry has.

I think Lecavalier's best season wasn't far off from Perry's best season if it was inferior at all, but Crosby finished that season and won the Art Ross (Thornton outscored Vinny was well). If Crosby and Thornton had missed about 10-12 games, Lecavalier might very well have won the Rocket Richard, Art Ross AND Hart trophies in one haul, which would have had him above Perry as far as the list of HHOF candidates is concerned. Lecavalier won the MVP of the World Cup in 2004, but Canada didn't have a good showing at the 2006 Olympics and he was on that team. Perry played for Canada at the 2010 and 2014 Olympics and at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey. People can say he was somewhat of a passenger at the 2014 Olympics and 2016 WOC, but he was still selected to those teams. He did have four goals and five points in seven games at the 2010 Olympics.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Nash gets the short end of the stick on playoff performance from a point totals perspective...I'm not saying he's been Getzlaf, but Nash gets a bad rap, or more accurately, a worse one than he deserves...I've seen every single playoff game for the last, geez, while now...what Nash did to open things up for Kreider in that one run is something that just doesn't show up, the Rangers have had almost no skill on their backline for a while (Leetch?) - Nash came back to the high DZ and low NZ just to help facilitate exiting the zone without rimming it around (the Torts breakout) it's insane...then him rounding out into a really strong two-way player in the postseason is a good look too...

Not asking for a Conn Smythe or even a whole lot of pity points...but the narrative/box score on Nash is far worse than the actual product...

 

[Sentinel]

"Rangers haven't had talent on the blue line since Leetch?" What? McDonaugh, Girardi, Del Zotto, Staal, Falk, Boyle, Yandle?

 

[MisterNoItAll]

To be more realistic about it, if he hits 30 this season, and 20 at age 37, with something resembling a linear decline in between there, that's 500 goals on the dot. As Mike Farkas noted, he's more than likely to take a steep tumble at some point, so you'd want a couple of 35 or 40 goal seasons for the road before you're calling that a lock.

He only needs to average 18 goals per season, until he's 40. What part of my post did you not understand? Furthermore, assuming he's going to take a "steep" tumble, is merely an assumption. He'll likely regress with age, but steep is stretching it. 18 goals, is extremely reasonable for a player of his quality, whose averaged 32 goals his entire career.

 

[MisterNoItAll]

He looks pretty solidly in to me.

- Hart Trophy
- Richard Trophy
- 2x First-Team All-Star
- Cup ring on a team where he was the 2nd-leading playoff scorer.
- 5x top-10 in goals
- 2x top-5 in points
- 2x Olympic Gold medalist
- WJC gold, World Championships Gold, Memorial Cup champion (and Memorial Cup MVP)
- One-team player who will retire as one of the most important players in the history of that franchise and finish with ~1000 points with that one team.

If he doesn't make it, that's the best resume of any non-HHOF player.

Forget bad inductees like Gillies and Duff. That's clearly a better resume than modern wingers like Bure, Neely, McDonald, Anderson, Ciccarelli, Barber, Shutt and centers like Lafontaine, Savard, Sittler, Federko.

When you can that easily name that many players in the last 30 years he comes ahead of ... he's going to be in.

The only reason for not inducting him is that his by-season scoring totals 'seem low' ... because he played in the lowest-scoring era in modern NHL history.

Yep, and just to add. He has a World Cup of Hockey, and he will have his jersey retired by the Ducks.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

- Cup ring on a team where he was the 2nd-leading playoff scorer.

i have to admit, i had to look that one up to verify it. surprised the hell out of me.

to be fair, perry was tied for 2nd with pronger and selanne. one bounce or assist goes the other way and he's tied with mcdonald for 4th. and it was 15 points in 21 games on a very deep team, with nine double-digit playoff scorers, so it's not like he finished 2nd in scoring the way crosby finished 2nd on the penguins last year.

perry also was 8th in icetime among forwards on that team, a full 49 seconds behind 7th place (travis moen). for all intents and purposes, he, getzlaf, and penner played sheltered third line minutes, behind the selanne/mcdonald/kunitz line, who faced the toughest checking; and niedermayer/pahlsson/moen, who took on the opposition's best.

not saying he was nothing in '07, or that it doesn't help his HHOF case, but i think he was considerably less than "Cup ring on a team where he was the 2nd-leading playoff scorer" makes it sound like.