Dodged a bullet (Staal contract)

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So we are talking about a 3rd line center that hasn't played for us in two years now while in the midst of the playoffs?

I feel like making a "Stall" for Kaberle thread for old times sake.

What was the old recipe? Kaberle + Toskala + 2nd gets you anyone in the league or something?

 

[AjaxTelamon]

From someone who leans on advanced stats so heavily in all of his arguments, this statement is extremely surprising.




I see you've omitted all possession-related metrics in favor of using gf %, which, like plus minus, has a high degree of error due to the relative scarcity of goal events.

Staal spends 20% more time out of his zone. That's not a slight difference, it's the Grand ****ing Canyon. It's the difference in zone time between Pyatt and Malkin. Over a 2 year span.

Furthermore, Sutter was such a failure in the tough minutes Staal is used to that the Penguins had to stop using him as a shutdown player this season. All of Staal's former difficult minutes went to 87.

Sutter's worse numbers came in easy minutes. Not easier minutes. Easy minutes. Of centers that have played for this team this season, the only one given a softer landing than Sutter was Vitale.

He had to be given easy minutes because he failed miserably at playing the role Staal played here and in Carolina. Linemate argument doesn't cut it either. Cooke saw a 20% negative swing in his own possession numbers going from Staal to Sutter. Kennedy fell off a cliff as well.

It's nice that Sutter's had 8 good games in a row and another 10 decent ones before that (not sure why it took 2 years for this to happen, but whatever), but let's stop pretending that a guy who flunked out of his job as a shutdown center, during said flunking, was 90% as effective as the second or third best defensive forward in the conference--who also happens to have been twice as productive offensively in the same period of time.

Billy, you clearly didn't watch much Canes hockey this year. Jordan started out the year as the defensive specialist, taking a majority of his draws in the Dzone, but his scoring was so awful during that stretch (.25 pts per game through 12 to start the year, 1 goal) that they had to sign Manny freaking Malhotra from the Charlotte Checkers to come in and wipe Jordan's nose and get him some easier zone starts.

Here's a chart of Carolina's centers zone starts this past year. By the end of the year they had Jordan up to about 50% O zone starts, and he STILL couldn't produce more than about .5 pts per game, even getting lots of PP time (180 min for the year).

Staal is a 3rd line center who can't score, can't pass, and refuses to play the shut down game he used to. All he can do is dump the puck and cycle it along the boards. In other words, be a good 4th line center. Oh, and his penalty killing stats were abysmal this year. Opp SH% was over 21%(!) over 170 minutes. And it wasn't just the goaltending. Malhotra came in and put in 107 mins of SH TOI and his Opp SH% was 10%.

Staal plain sucks these days. I'd rather have Sutter, especially considering the difference in cap hit.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Hey, with the Scuderi signing, we now will get to dodge the bullet of keeping a damn good #2/3/4 defenseman in Matt Niskanen.

In Ray We Trust!

 

[Dupree13]

The thing about Staal's contract is that I think it was given based on the idea that he was about to take the next step offensively. He showed signs of doing that in his last year in Pittsburgh, which was looking like a major break-out year at the time.

If it had been known that he would fall back to being a 40-point player, no way he would have gotten 10 yrs/$60 million.

People talk about Sutter possibly getting up to $4M. Well to me that's the absolute ceiling of what he will get, and it certainly won't be 10 years.

 

[Shady Machine]

From someone who leans on advanced stats so heavily in all of his arguments, this statement is extremely surprising.




I see you've omitted all possession-related metrics in favor of using gf %, which, like plus minus, has a high degree of error due to the relative scarcity of goal events.

Staal spends 20% more time out of his zone. That's not a slight difference, it's the Grand ****ing Canyon. It's the difference in zone time between Pyatt and Malkin. Over a 2 year span.

Furthermore, Sutter was such a failure in the tough minutes Staal is used to that the Penguins had to stop using him as a shutdown player this season. All of Staal's former difficult minutes went to 87.

Sutter's worse numbers came in easy minutes. Not easier minutes. Easy minutes. Of centers that have played for this team this season, the only one given a softer landing than Sutter was Vitale.

He had to be given easy minutes because he failed miserably at playing the role Staal played here and in Carolina. Linemate argument doesn't cut it either. Cooke saw a 20% negative swing in his own possession numbers going from Staal to Sutter. Kennedy fell off a cliff as well.

It's nice that Sutter's had 8 good games in a row and another 10 decent ones before that (not sure why it took 2 years for this to happen, but whatever), but let's stop pretending that a guy who flunked out of his job as a shutdown center, during said flunking, was 90% as effective as the second or third best defensive forward in the conference--who also happens to have been twice as productive offensively in the same period of time.

Extremely well said.

 

[Shady Machine]

Billy, you clearly didn't watch much Canes hockey this year. Jordan started out the year as the defensive specialist, taking a majority of his draws in the Dzone, but his scoring was so awful during that stretch (.25 pts per game through 12 to start the year, 1 goal) that they had to sign Manny freaking Malhotra from the Charlotte Checkers to come in and wipe Jordan's nose and get him some easier zone starts.

Here's a chart of Carolina's centers zone starts this past year. By the end of the year they had Jordan up to about 50% O zone starts, and he STILL couldn't produce more than about .5 pts per game, even getting lots of PP time (180 min for the year).

Staal is a 3rd line center who can't score, can't pass, and refuses to play the shut down game he used to. All he can do is dump the puck and cycle it along the boards. In other words, be a good 4th line center. Oh, and his penalty killing stats were abysmal this year. Opp SH% was over 21%(!) over 170 minutes. And it wasn't just the goaltending. Malhotra came in and put in 107 mins of SH TOI and his Opp SH% was 10%.

Staal plain sucks these days. I'd rather have Sutter, especially considering the difference in cap hit.

Okay so he sucks in Carolina but was very good in Pittsburgh compared to Sutter. Billy was comparing the Pittsburgh Staal to Sutter. I would bet if he was in Pittsburgh, assuming he wanted to be, we would be seeing the former Staal and not the latter. I still am glad we aren't paying him 6 mil for the next 9 seasons, but he's a much better player than Sutter. It's really not close.

 

[terex]

I'd spend the extra 3.5m on Staal vs Sutter (and probably only around 1.5-2m with Sutter's next contract) all day, every day. It would have made the cap tighter during the lockout season, but it would have also probably meant either not re-signing Dupuis or not bringing back Scuds this off season. And it very well could have meant not signing Glass in the first place.

I wish he wanted to stay.

 

[cassius]

I'd spend the extra 3.5m on Staal vs Sutter (and probably only around 1.5-2m with Sutter's next contract) all day, every day. It would have made the cap tighter during the lockout season, but it would have also probably meant either not re-signing Dupuis or not bringing back Scuds this off season. And it very well could have meant not signing Glass in the first place.

I wish he wanted to stay.

Good thing you aren't GM. You should probably undergo a medical evaluation if you are okay committing $60M and 10 years towards a 40 point 3rd line center.

 

[Shady Machine]

Good thing you aren't GM. You should probably undergo a medical evaluation if you are okay committing $60M and 10 years towards a 40 point 3rd line center.

I don't disagree, but the bigger question is what did Shero do with the extra cap space? To me it looks like he gave Dupuis a raise and brought in Scuderi. Not exactly what we all hoped he would do with the added cap space.

 

[Gooch]

What was the old recipe? Kaberle + Toskala + 2nd gets you anyone in the league or something?

I believe that was Ryder + Halak+ 2nd

 

[Gooch]

I don't disagree, but the bigger question is what did Shero do with the extra cap space? To me it looks like he gave Dupuis a raise and brought in Scuderi. Not exactly what we all hoped he would do with the added cap space.

Yep, that was my point. The savings were simply just transfered to equally if not more wasteful ways with what you described. If hands were tied with having Staal on the team at 6m do you think those moves wouldve been made?

 

[cassius]

I don't disagree, but the bigger question is what did Shero do with the extra cap space? To me it looks like he gave Dupuis a raise and brought in Scuderi. Not exactly what we all hoped he would do with the added cap space.

I agree those moves weren't great, but I am just content we avoided signing Staal to the 3rd highest $ value contracts in Penguins history. That would have been a huge blunder that you are stuck with for a decade. Scuderi / Dupuis's contracts, while they aren't a bargain, they are at least at "fair value" and the term(years) isn't ridiculous.

In terms of the Staal contract, it's the opposite case.. the term and $ values are both ridiculous. With Scuderi/Dupuis, its a bit of a different case.

 

[JQR]

Staal was the best shutdown center in the league when he left Pittsburgh to go to Carolina. I suppose it's debatable whether or not that's worth $6 million per year. On the other hand, Sutter and Jokinen didn't flourish at all in Carolina and turned out to be excellent in Pittsburgh. When Staal was forced to play 1C and 2C on the Pens he was struggling, but he held them together and was one of the biggest reasons they made the playoffs that year. I still don't see how anyone can look at those months and see him as a really good 1C / 2C, as opposed to a naturally great shutdown 3C.

His perfect spot would be as a trade deadline acquisition as a 3C on a cup contending team.

 

[terex]

Good thing you aren't GM. You should probably undergo a medical evaluation if you are okay committing $60M and 10 years towards a 40 point 3rd line center.

And see the other posts above about the alternatives for what was done with that cap space. At the time, and for what was available on the market, Staal was the best fit for this team. But please, go ahead and argue with how re-signing Dupuis, signing Scuderi, signing Glass, etc. would have been the better choice.

Staal is and always will be better than Sutter. We aren't getting as good of a player as Staal through free agency to fill that role. It was the best use of the cap space at the time, and probably going forward. And this is all assuming Staal would still have the same stats as he did with Carolina this year, which were not as bad as you are painting.

 

[wgknestrick]

The trade was awesome, and we don't have Staal's huge contract on the books. Does anyone really think that in 2-3 years, Staal will be better than both Sutter AND Derrick Pouliot at 6mil/year? Let us not forget Brian Dumoulin is a decent player as well.

Shero did the best with what he had, and I'm glad Staal is not on this team with that 6mil/year contract. Staal just is not worth that kind of money or term until he shows he can produce points at a much higher level.

Shero made lemonade out of a potential terrible situation with a player wanting out. Yes we dodged a bullet.

 

[Malkin4Top6Wingerz]

Billy, you clearly didn't watch much Canes hockey this year. Jordan started out the year as the defensive specialist, taking a majority of his draws in the Dzone, but his scoring was so awful during that stretch (.25 pts per game through 12 to start the year, 1 goal) that they had to sign Manny freaking Malhotra from the Charlotte Checkers to come in and wipe Jordan's nose and get him some easier zone starts.

Here's a chart of Carolina's centers zone starts this past year. By the end of the year they had Jordan up to about 50% O zone starts, and he STILL couldn't produce more than about .5 pts per game, even getting lots of PP time (180 min for the year).

An on ice shooting percentage of just north of 5% will wreak havoc on anybody's production.

Staal is a 3rd line center who can't score, can't pass, and refuses to play the shut down game he used to. All he can do is dump the puck and cycle it along the boards. In other words, be a good 4th line center. Oh, and his penalty killing stats were abysmal this year. Opp SH% was over 21%(!) over 170 minutes. And it wasn't just the goaltending. Malhotra came in and put in 107 mins of SH TOI and his Opp SH% was 10%.

Shooting percentage against isn't a skill on the PK that I have ever seen demonstrated. All you've shown so far is that Staal has had really poor shooting luck, both for and against, and your assertion that he is a 'good 4th line center' revokes any credibility posting that graph may have given you.

Staal plain sucks these days. I'd rather have Sutter, especially considering the difference in cap hit.

You should probably stop posting on internet hockey forums.

 

[Shady Machine]

Staal was the best shutdown center in the league when he left Pittsburgh to go to Carolina. I suppose it's debatable whether or not that's worth $6 million per year. On the other hand, Sutter and Jokinen didn't flourish at all in Carolina and turned out to be excellent in Pittsburgh. When Staal was forced to play 1C and 2C on the Pens he was struggling, but he held them together and was one of the biggest reasons they made the playoffs that year. I still don't see how anyone can look at those months and see him as a really good 1C / 2C, as opposed to a naturally great shutdown 3C.

His perfect spot would be as a trade deadline acquisition as a 3C on a cup contending team.

Sutter was better in Carolina.

 

[Shady Machine]

I agree those moves weren't great, but I am just content we avoided signing Staal to the 3rd highest $ value contracts in Penguins history. That would have been a huge blunder that you are stuck with for a decade. Scuderi / Dupuis's contracts, while they aren't a bargain, they are at least at "fair value" and the term(years) isn't ridiculous.

In terms of the Staal contract, it's the opposite case.. the term and $ values are both ridiculous. With Scuderi/Dupuis, its a bit of a different case.

Again don't disagree but it doesn't make them better moves. Scuderi is actually hurting our team right now. Staal, even at $6million would be a positive on the ice. The Scuds deal was bad.

We got good value back in the trade so I'm not complaining. Shero did the right thing by moving him (even if he offered him a fairly absurd contract). Where Shero really screwed up is not replacing Staal's cap hit with valuable players.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Okay so he sucks in Carolina but was very good in Pittsburgh compared to Sutter. Billy was comparing the Pittsburgh Staal to Sutter. I would bet if he was in Pittsburgh, assuming he wanted to be, we would be seeing the former Staal and not the latter. I still am glad we aren't paying him 6 mil for the next 9 seasons, but he's a much better player than Sutter. It's really not close.

His decline started here. He had 29 goals his rookie year. Never had that production again. He was sheltered by the two best centers in hockey, and benefited from an unsustainable shooting %. People are just nostalgic for the cup runs.

I didn't say he can't get better, but he's not worth his contract, and he's very limited offensively. The OP stated we dodged a bullet with Steal, and so far that appears to be correct.

 

[JQR]

Sutter was better in Carolina.

Wasn't he a 2C in Carolina? His numbers don't seem to reflect a significant difference between 2C in Carolina and 3C in Pittsburgh.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Again don't disagree but it doesn't make them better moves. Scuderi is actually hurting our team right now. Staal, even at $6million would be a positive on the ice. The Scuds deal was bad.

We got good value back in the trade so I'm not complaining. Shero did the right thing by moving him (even if he offered him a fairly absurd contract). Where Shero really screwed up is not replacing Staal's cap hit with valuable players.

That is a different argument, which I don't entirely disagree with. The other issue is that Shero offered Staal that deal. So we didn't avoid that deal through Shero's genius.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

The trade was awesome, and we don't have Staal's huge contract on the books. Does anyone really think that in 2-3 years, Staal will be better than both Sutter AND Derrick Pouliot at 6mil/year? Let us not forget Brian Dumoulin is a decent player as well.

Shero did the best with what he had, and I'm glad Staal is not on this team with that 6mil/year contract. Staal just is not worth that kind of money or term until he shows he can produce points at a much higher level.

Shero made lemonade out of a potential terrible situation with a player wanting out. Yes we dodged a bullet.

He Shero used the pick on Trouba, FF, Hertl, TT then yes it would have been great. The down grade from Staal to Sutter for the 3+ years till DP is ready during Sid and Geno's prime isn't worth it IMO.

 

[edog37]

before we start breaking arms patting ourselves on the back, we still have Letang's contract to contend with....

 

[Riptide]

One underlooked factor that folks seem to forget, is that Shero made a contract offer for Jordan Staal.. To the tune of 10 years, $60 million.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/...id-with-staal-for-rejecting-10-year-contract/

Can you imagine how far this organization would be set back if Staal signed on the dotted line? Extensions for our core players and free agent acquisitions could have been potentially impossible.

i.e. if Staal signed that deal, it would have basically solidified that Crosby/Malkin would be playing with scrubs for the next 10 years in their career (until they were 35/36)

For reference: Staal posted 40 points in 82 games this season. Today Carolina's coach got fired..

If nothing else, it definitely raises some question marks about Shero's ability to value talent. You never go full ****** and sign a 3rd line center to a $60M deal. It ALMOST happened, if not for Staal passing it up.

The Penguins are extremely lucky that Staal ended up turning down that ridiculous contract. Without a doubt, I feel that it could have ended up being possibly the worst contract in Penguins history. You simply cannot overpay for third line centers these days, as they are a dime a dozen.

So does that mean we wouldn't have been stuck with a Dupuis extension and Scuderi's contract?

Edit,
Looks like it's still possible to have a half ass decent roster.

FORWARDS
Chris Kunitz ($3.850m) / Sidney Crosby ($8.700m) / Radim Vrbata ($4.000m)
Jussi Jokinen ($3.000m) / Evgeni Malkin ($9.500m) / James Neal ($5.000m)
Beau Bennett ($0.900m) / Jordan Staal ($6.000m) / Marcel Goc ($2.000m)
Jayson Megna ($0.700m) / Joe Vitale ($0.850m) / Craig Adams ($0.700m)
Zach Sill ($0.550m) / Brian Gibbons ($0.850m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kris Letang ($7.250m) / Paul Martin ($5.000m)
Simon Despres ($1.200m) / Olli Maatta ($0.894m)
Robert Bortuzzo ($0.600m) / Philip Samuelsson ($0.605m)
Deryk Engelland ($0.800m) /
GOALTENDERS
Marc-Andre Fleury ($5.000m)
Jeff Zatkoff ($0.600m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,549,167; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $450,833

 

[Shady Machine]

That is a different argument, which I don't entirely disagree with. The other issue is that Shero offered Staal that deal. So we didn't avoid that deal through Shero's genius.

I'm trying to look at things holistically. I agree that Staal is not worth 6mil for 10 years. That is obvious. In terms of Shero's genius, I agree that he may have lucked into Staal not agreeing but I have a hunch he knew Staal wouldn't stay regardless of the offer and wanted to throw a very good offer his way to appease the masses. Either way, the offer was too rich.

I was also very pleased with the return in the trade (outside of not drafting a winger, but it looks like Pouliot was a decent pick after all). However, it's 2 full seasons since the trade and we have an under performing replacement (until a few weeks ago) and a void missing up front that Staal filled. Say what you want about his disappointment and not being worth the contract, but having him against Boston would have definitely helped (more so than a misused Iginla or over the hill Morrow).

Let's see what we get out of Sutter's new contract or trade value before we declare that we for sure dodged a bullet. What if Sutter gets 4mil per? What if we trade Despres for scraps because the org prefers Dumo (or trade Dumo for scraps)? What if Pouliot doesn't pan out?

There are too many variables for me to look at the situation and be really happy with how things have turned out.