Do you have faith in this team?

[WordsOfWisdumb*]

Shaping up to be the same old story as it was in the last 2 full 82 game seasons:

I'm curious as to whether a team that was 25th in GAA has ever won the Stanley Cup.

There's a general rule of thumb that I use, and it applies to all team sports, to win a championship you need to be one of the following (roughly -- assuming a 30 team league):

A) #1 offensively and at least 15th or better defensively.
B) #1 defensively and at least 15th or better offensively.
C) Top 10 offensively and top 10 defensively. (Balanced approach.)

 

[Mess]

I'm curious as to whether a team that was 25th in GAA has ever won the Stanley Cup.

All the bottom 10 teams in goals against rarely make the playoffs and last year all 10 missed them.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/standings/_/sort/pointsAgainst/year/2014/group/1/order/false

 

[zeke]

our luck only lasted us the first month last year:

October '13

Offense: 26.5sf/gm (28th), 3.36gf/gm (3rd), 12.7sh% (1st)
Defense: 36.1sa/gm (29th), 2.29ga/gm (6th), 93.7sv% (3rd)

November '13

Offense: 26.2sf/gm (26th), 1.92gf/gm (29th), 7.3sh% (a bit below average)
Defense: 35.8sa/gm (30th), 3.00ga/gm (23rd), 91.6% (11th)

the fluke hot streak was long over by this point last year. it only lasted the first month with totally unsustainable shot and save percentages. both came back down to earth in november, and then their consistent shot differential dictated that they were one of the worst teams from then on.


this year they haven't relied on ridiculous shot or save percentages to build their record. at least not at the same time - we did rock an unsustainable sh% in november this year but we had lower than expected save percentage during the same time.

there are things to worry about, though. we were pretty good at holding shots against down early on but the past month or so we've gone back to giving up around 35 ***** per game which is way too high. though this may have something to do with how badly we play when we have big leads....and with our hot shooting percentage over that stretch we've had all sorts of big leads to turtle on lately.

 

[zeke]

All the bottom 10 teams in goals against rarely make the playoffs and last year all 10 missed them.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/standings/_/sort/pointsAgainst/year/2014/group/1/order/false

Top 10 teams in goals scored rarely miss the playoffs and last year all 10 made them.

 

[Mess]

Top 10 teams in goals scored rarely miss the playoffs and last year all 10 made them.

Nope check out Ottawa.

However 6 of the 16 teams (37.5%) that made the playoffs last year scored = or less goals for than Leafs.

3 of those teams with less GF (Montreal, NYR and LA) played in the final 4, with none finishing in the top 16 in goals for. Those 3 teams however were also #1 (LA), #4 (NYR) and #6 (Montreal) in best goals against entering the playoffs, because there's no such excuse for the defensive half of the equation.

LA played NYR for the Cup.

Leafs scored 231 GF, NYR 218, and the Cup champs LA 206 goals for.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I'm cautiously optimistic, yet suspicious. I don't see many dominant East Conference teams, so things are open for us to make the playoffs in that sense. But, the level of play and competition ramps up in the home stretch when the playoffs are nearer.

 

[Mess]

I'm cautiously optimistic, yet suspicious. I don't see many dominant East Conference teams, so things are open for us to make the playoffs in that sense. But, the level of play and competition ramps up in the home stretch when the playoffs are nearer.

That is because the "cream always rises to the top".

 

[ShaneFalco]

The checking becomes tighter too closer to, and in the playoffs

 

[zeke]

Nope check out Ottawa.

ottawa was not top ten in goals.

However 6 of the 16 teams (37.5%) that made the playoffs last year scored = or less goals for than Leafs.

3 of those teams with less GF (Montreal, NYR and LA) played in the final 4. Those 3 teams were also #1 (LA), #4 (NYR) and #6 (Montreal) in best goals against entering the playoffs.

LA played NYR for the Cup.

Leafs scored 231 GF, NYR 218, and the Cup champs LA 206 goals for.

yep.

last year's cup finalists:

LAK: 26th gf, 1st ga
NYR: 18th gf, 4th ga

2013

CHI: 2nd gf, 1st ga
BOS: 13th gf, 4th ga

2012

LAK: 29th gf, 2nd ga
NJD: 15th gf, 10th ga

2011

BOS: 6th gf, 2nd ga
VAN: 1st gf, 1st ga

2010

CHI: 3rd gf, 6th ga
PHI: 8th gf, 15th ga

2009

PIT: 6th gf, 17th ga
DET: 1st gf, 20th ga

2008

DET: 3rd gf, 1st ga
PIT: 7th gf, 10th ga

2007

ANA: 8th gf, 7th ga
OTT: 2nd gf, 10th ga

2006

CAR: 3rd gf, 12th ga
EDM: 15th gf, 19th ga



this current Kings team has managed to do something pretty much unprecedented in winning cups with awful offenses, but i'm nit sure that's a model you want to follow. they needed some superhuman goaltending performances to do what they did.

 

[Nithoniniel]

ottawa was not top ten in goals.



yep.

last year's cup finalists:

LAK: 26th gf, 1st ga
NYR: 18th gf, 4th ga

2013

CHI: 2nd gf, 1st ga
BOS: 13th gf, 4th ga

2012

LAK: 29th gf, 2nd ga
NJD: 15th gf, 10th ga

2011

BOS: 6th gf, 2nd ga
VAN: 1st gf, 1st ga

2010

CHI: 3rd gf, 6th ga
PHI: 8th gf, 15th ga

2009

PIT: 6th gf, 17th ga
DET: 1st gf, 20th ga

2008

DET: 3rd gf, 1st ga
PIT: 7th gf, 10th ga

2007

ANA: 8th gf, 7th ga
OTT: 2nd gf, 10th ga

2006

CAR: 3rd gf, 12th ga
EDM: 15th gf, 19th ga



this current Kings team has managed to do something pretty much unprecedented in winning cups with awful offenses, but i'm nit sure that's a model you want to follow. they needed some superhuman goaltending performances to do what they did.

I think Quick's playoff performances have been a bit overstated. The first year was among the best defensive efforts I've ever seen from a hockey team, which helped Quick immensely. Last year he was pretty mediocre overall in the post-season. The biggest thing about LA is that they have been a top offensive team once they are actually in the playoffs.

 

[zeke]

that's true. they have plenty of offensive talent, it just doesn't score in the regular season for some reason.

 

[hockeyfanz*]

Faith in what? The question is pretty general. Faith in making the playoffs? I think its a strong possibility that they finish anywhere from 7th to 11th so yes they can make the playoffs.

Faith in being in the final 4 or Cup final?

NO. No faith at all.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

ottawa was not top ten in goals.



yep.

last year's cup finalists:

LAK: 26th gf, 1st ga
NYR: 18th gf, 4th ga

2013

CHI: 2nd gf, 1st ga
BOS: 13th gf, 4th ga

2012

LAK: 29th gf, 2nd ga
NJD: 15th gf, 10th ga

2011

BOS: 6th gf, 2nd ga
VAN: 1st gf, 1st ga

2010

CHI: 3rd gf, 6th ga
PHI: 8th gf, 15th ga

2009

PIT: 6th gf, 17th ga
DET: 1st gf, 20th ga

2008

DET: 3rd gf, 1st ga
PIT: 7th gf, 10th ga

2007

ANA: 8th gf, 7th ga
OTT: 2nd gf, 10th ga

2006

CAR: 3rd gf, 12th ga
EDM: 15th gf, 19th ga



this current Kings team has managed to do something pretty much unprecedented in winning cups with awful offenses, but i'm nit sure that's a model you want to follow. they needed some superhuman goaltending performances to do what they did.

Why waste so much time discussing GF and GA separately, and not just looking at Goal Differential?

Top 16 in goal differential tend to be in the play-offs, save for divisional selection anomalies, which is a bit less of a factor now than before. For the Leafs to have a reasonable chance at making the playoffs, they'll need to maintain a Top 16 and positive goal differential.

 

[Pyrophorus]

I have more faith (than last year), but unlike others on this board, its not so easily shaken.

 

[Pyromaniac3]

to be fair, that 42.8% in 12/13 isn't remotely close to the other two, so saying they look the same really isn't true.

and then the key number you're missing to show the difference from 11-12 is sv% (why would you show sh% but not sv%?). we finished 29th with an .898sv% in 11-12, which we're unlikely to come anywhere close to this year.

so really, your chart actually confirms that this team should finish significantly higher than those two teams did.

While it doesn't seem like much, those improved Corsi numbers are massively significant - much more closer to the league average than last year's historically bad season.

PDO would be the real concern though - doesn't have that to trend downwards at some point this season?

Objectively, the attitude and play of the team seems different than last season. Almost every win last season was a carbon copy of Saturday's win v Vancouver (goalie steals the win, team gets 2 pts, ignores issues). That hasn't happened much this season (Reimer-Chicago, Bernier-Vancouver, maybe 1 or 2 others. Not nearly as often though).

Who knows at this point. Signs are positive, but no way should anyone give them the benefit of the doubt. This core has to earn it.

All that chart is supposed to show that we are still relying on luck and goaltending to win games. A run of low sh% will really expose the lack of defensive system.

 

[zeke]

All that chart is supposed to show that we are still relying on luck and goaltending to win games. A run of low sh% will really expose the lack of defensive system.

if that chart was supposed to show that, it would include save percentage.

that chart was actually designed to show that nothing is different this year, and thus had to ignore save percentage, and set it up to make 42.8cf% seem similar to 47%, which isn't remotely true.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

High scoring team with a hot goaltender...we can do some damage.

 

[Pyromaniac3]

if that chart was supposed to show that, it would include save percentage.

that chart was actually designed to show that nothing is different this year, and thus had to ignore save percentage, and set it up to make 42.8cf% seem similar to 47%, which isn't remotely true.

It's not like 47%CF is good. It's bottom 5 in the league. Last year, we also had elite goal tending, which do not have this year nor should we expect to. A few percent increase in CF% can easily be offset by a decrease in sv%.


Anyways, Leafs are now second overall in sh% with 11.2%, 4th last overall in 5v5 CF% with 45.9%, 6th last overall in 5v5 FF% with 46.7%.

 

[Mess]

It's not like 47%CF is good. It's bottom 5 in the league. Last year, we also had elite goal tending, which do not have this year nor should we expect to. A few percent increase in CF% can easily be offset by a decrease in sv%.


Anyways, Leafs are now second overall in sh% with 11.2%, 4th last overall in 5v5 CF% with 45.9%, 6th last overall in 5v5 FF% with 46.7%.

When Kyle Dubas and his analytics teams analyze those numbers I wonder what they think, and what they would suggest to fix the problem?

 

[Pyromaniac3]

When Kyle Dubas and his analytics teams analyze those numbers I wonder what they think, and what they would suggest to fix the problem?

I would break up the first line. In the last 9 games (our record is 7-1-1) in 5v5 situations, JVR has 37.9CF%, Kessel 39.5% and Bozak has 40.2CF%. That's Buffalo level bad and they play the most of any line on our team.

All these analytic stats show is how well the team is playing. The next evolution is to figure out strategies to fix these issues.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I would break up the first line. In the last 9 games (our record is 7-1-1) in 5v5 situations, JVR has 37.9CF%, Kessel 39.5% and Bozak has 40.2CF%. That's Buffalo level bad and they play the most of any line on our team.

All these analytic stats show is how well the team is playing. The next evolution is to figure out strategies to fix these issues.

Before things go off the rails

 

[12345678910]

I have faith we can muster our way into the playoffs, and at this point I'll gladly take that.

 

[MajorityRules*]

What is our goal differential compared to this time last year? It's been awhile since it's been on the positive side from what I remember.

 

[Mess]

Luck and good fortune seems to be on our side at the moment and hopefully we can ride this to a playoff birth.

High shots against and low possession #'s and unsustainable sv% have been our downfall in the past.

Hopefully this isn't just Déjà vu as we've seen this story before.

 

[mix1home]

I voted "yes", as last year team could not win back-to-backs at all. This year they won three of back-to-backs which shows that they can win close games, when team is not playing to their best abilities / tired / backup goalie / travel / etc. / etc.
Those are essential points and team character building elements than gel team into "we can win no matter what" mode.
Vets they brought in on D and F roles (as well as Komarov X-factor) will not allow for collapse to happen again.
Also our top line plays less minutes, team has better balance (or so I hope) and goal differential is quite big this year and if we remove couple of outliner blow-outs - it will be up there with the best teams in the league. This is one of the keys I think.
I know that all fans are nervous about it to one degree or the other, but logically team should be fine this year.