Do you have faith in this team?

[silentbob37*]

I suggested earlier in this thread that maybe JVR for Boone Jenner would be a possibility. Quality for quality is what you must give up.

It doesn't need to be demolished. Nonis needs to start earning his pay. He is to stagnant.

There is nothing wrong with that trade in and of itself

The problem is if you don't demolish the rest of the core it won't amount to much. Jenner isn't goign to come in and get guys ike Kessel, Phaneuf and Lupul playing differently, he isn't going to change how the team plays on his own, and its unlikely he is/becomes one of those top tiers guys they need.

If they want to change direction, culture, style........it needs to be demolished. Those things won't change if you leave part of his core intact.

 

[Apollo Leaf]

I have faith that this team will make the playoffs, it's just I don't think we'll make it far.

I don't see this team collapsing like last season. We have a stable PP/PK, possession numbers are improved, and most of all we have better depth players. All of which we lacked last season, and was the reason we collapsed.

I honestly think this team will challenge for 44 or 45 wins this season, while being ousted in the 1st round.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

There is nothing wrong with that trade in and of itself

The problem is if you don't demolish the rest of the core it won't amount to much. Jenner isn't goign to come in and get guys ike Kessel, Phaneuf and Lupul playing differently, he isn't going to change how the team plays on his own, and its unlikely he is/becomes one of those top tiers guys they need.

If they want to change direction, culture, style........it needs to be demolished. Those things won't change if you leave part of his core intact.

Adding a two way scoring center and moving a very good offensive winger who plays soft defense has a effect. All the bickering we see daily about poor defensive play is not as much a issue with a deal of that nature.

I would trade Kessel also for the right pieces but would so reluctantly. His game breaking ability makes him a player I would just as soon keep also. I very much understand the good intention and merits of demoing the line up. I dread the thought of a complete teardown though..

Removing defensive liabilities from the team is very needed if replaced property. We need the goals against cut down to be competitive. To many defensive passengers on one team spells trouble it seems.


I would not want to re-sign Franson and wouldn't mind him being moved out. The issues we have are fixable I guess I think.

 

[silentbob37*]

Adding a two way scoring center and moving a very good offensive winger who plays soft defense has a effect. All the bickering we see daily about poor defensive play is not as much a issue with a deal of that nature.

I would trade Kessel also for the right pieces but would so reluctantly. His game breaking ability makes him a player I would just as soon keep also. I very much understand the good intention and merits of demoing the line up. I dread the thought of a complete teardown though..

Removing defensive liabilities from the team is very needed if replaced property. We need the goals against cut down to be competitive. To many defensive passengers on one team spells trouble it seems.


I would not want to re-sign Franson and wouldn't mind him being moved out. The issues we have are fixable I guess I think.

But 1 player doesn't change the defensive play. Its a whole team thing and you drop Jenner in, but Kessel and Lupul and Bozak don't change, thus the culture doesn't change.......

I agree, but you can't remove JVR and Lupul, you have to remove Kessel and create a new culture that values and uts defense first. You might have to look at moving Nylander depending on how he improves his two-way game etc.... Thast a HUGE culture and style shift, and it would involve massive player change over.

Look at the Raptors, t hey had to move Gay out to allow for that kind of culture change, they needed to change who was on top and setting the tone and creating the culture.

 

[-DeMo-]

I have faith that this team will make the playoffs, it's just I don't think we'll make it far.

I don't see this team collapsing like last season. We have a stable PP/PK, possession numbers are improved, and most of all we have better depth players. All of which we lacked last season, and was the reason we collapsed.

I honestly think this team will challenge for 44 or 45 wins this season, while being ousted in the 1st round.

yet were 14-9-3 again just like last year, if our best players don't play well down the stretch like last year we will miss again, the depth players don't win you games over the long haul, they can win a few in the short term but not the long term. as with every team your only as good as your best players. if they struggle the leafs will struggle.

 

[Pyromaniac3]

Shaping up to be the same old story as it was in the last 2 full 82 game seasons:

 

[zeke]

to be fair, that 42.8% in 12/13 isn't remotely close to the other two, so saying they look the same really isn't true.

and then the key number you're missing to show the difference from 11-12 is sv% (why would you show sh% but not sv%?). we finished 29th with an .898sv% in 11-12, which we're unlikely to come anywhere close to this year.

so really, your chart actually confirms that this team should finish significantly higher than those two teams did.

 

[Tak7]

Shaping up to be the same old story as it was in the last 2 full 82 game seasons:

While it doesn't seem like much, those improved Corsi numbers are massively significant - much more closer to the league average than last year's historically bad season.

PDO would be the real concern though - doesn't have that to trend downwards at some point this season?

Objectively, the attitude and play of the team seems different than last season. Almost every win last season was a carbon copy of Saturday's win v Vancouver (goalie steals the win, team gets 2 pts, ignores issues). That hasn't happened much this season (Reimer-Chicago, Bernier-Vancouver, maybe 1 or 2 others. Not nearly as often though).

Who knows at this point. Signs are positive, but no way should anyone give them the benefit of the doubt. This core has to earn it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Asking if I have faith is like asking me is it sustainable.

The three most feared words in Leaf Nation. Is it sustainable?

Of course it's sustainable. But will they sustain it?

 

[GoonieFace]

I have faith they will implode the last 20-25 games. I just do not believe a team led by Phaneuf, Kessel and Van Riemsdyk can pull it off when it counts the most.

 

[Mess]

Shaping up to be the same old story as it was in the last 2 full 82 game seasons:

Interesting Stats results.

2013-14 .. @ 26 games record 14-9-3 = 31 points.
2014-15 .. @ 26 games record 14-9-3 = 31 points.

The more things change the more they stay the same.

Goals Against:
2013-14 ... 82 games 256 GA = 3.12 GA/g
2014-15 ... 26 games 79 GA = 3.04 GA/g [82 games 249 GA]

Most playoff teams give up <= 220 GA per season.

Conclusion: If you can't play defense you will struggle with consistency and success. You will only be able to outscore your mistakes for so long and if the offense dries up as teams tighten up down the stretch then a weak defense will be a teams demise.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Nope.

They'll fold up in a heartbeat during crunch time with the guys they have as key players.

Got a shot at making the playoffs as long as the goaltending carries them, though.

 

[pucci2001]

I said no for obvious reasons but I want to mention they are playing some of the better hockey recently compared to the last few years. I just wish they could get more consistent.

 

[RLF]

Sustainability will all depend on if this team continues to try and play the way they have been heading (more physical, more cycle and possession game). I like the way we are winning games this year more than last. We are not as much run and gun. They need to keep working on it. The next 20 games will be a good tell whether or not they are continuing to buy in. If they continue to buy in, I don't see a collapse as this style of play is more sustainable.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Conclusion: If you can't play defense you will struggle with consistency and success. You will only be able to outscore your mistakes for so long and if the offense dries up as teams tighten up down the stretch then a weak defense will be a teams demise.

That's just it. They still allow way too many goals, and if thye make the playoffs without addressing this, they won't last long.
But I could see them going on a long losing streak at any time and missing the playoffs - I wouldn't be surprised at all.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

But 1 player doesn't change the defensive play. Its a whole team thing and you drop Jenner in, but Kessel and Lupul and Bozak don't change, thus the culture doesn't change.......

I agree, but you can't remove JVR and Lupul, you have to remove Kessel and create a new culture that values and uts defense first. You might have to look at moving Nylander depending on how he improves his two-way game etc.... Thast a HUGE culture and style shift, and it would involve massive player change over.

Look at the Raptors, t hey had to move Gay out to allow for that kind of culture change, they needed to change who was on top and setting the tone and creating the culture.

It would always be alot of maneuvers to change our poor defensive players. Most needed though. I would like better defense is the bottom line and doing it would amount to big changes. Its a big deal to pull it off seeing the amount of players we have that are good offensively but poor on the other side of the puck.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Interesting Stats results.

2013-14 .. @ 26 games record 14-9-3 = 31 points.
2014-15 .. @ 26 games record 14-9-3 = 31 points.

The more things change the more they stay the same.

Goals Against:
2013-14 ... 82 games 256 GA = 3.12 GA/g
2014-15 ... 26 games 79 GA = 3.04 GA/g [82 games 249 GA]

Most playoff teams give up <= 220 GA per season.

Conclusion: If you can't play defense you will struggle with consistency and success. You will only be able to outscore your mistakes for so long and if the offense dries up as teams tighten up down the stretch then a weak defense will be a teams demise.

You could deduct from this that our strengthened third and fourth lines will possibly be the ace up our sleeve to dump the slump we had to end the season last year also though.

We were winning through this last stretch without our top line carrying the weight bud. There is hope man. Still though that is some spooky numbers lol. Hopefully we get some moves to alleviate our defensive weaknesses.

 

[pucci2001]

You could deduct from this that our strengthened third and fourth lines will possibly be the ace up our sleeve to dump the slump we had to end the season last year also though.

We were winning through this last stretch without our top line carrying the weight bud. There is hope man. Still though that is some spooky numbers lol. Hopefully we get some moves to alleviate our defensive weaknesses.

I wonder how much better the numbers would look if we exclude the game against Nashville where we were pelted. I know you can't pick and choose but 9 goals against is pretty freakish, thats like 3 games worth of goals against.

 

[silentbob37*]

It would always be alot of maneuvers to change our poor defensive players. Most needed though. I would like better defense is the bottom line and doing it would amount to big changes. Its a big deal to pull it off seeing the amount of players we have that are good offensively but poor on the other side of the puck.

It would be a huge shift in player personal and team direction etc...

I just don't think management has the stomach for trading away Kessel, Bozak, JVR, Lupul, kadri, Phaneuf, Franson, maybe even Nylander - their top offensive players to bring in and/or to rebuild with better two-way players. I think at best they'd want to half-ass it by moving Lupul and Franson, which ultimately will have little to no effect.

You simply can't drop 1-2 good defensive players on a team thats as big a mess defensively as this team and expect anything to change. How many years, going back to the Dryden and Quinn days, have see them bring in this guy or that guy who is a good defensive player and there is no change in how the team performs overall.

 

[silentbob37*]

I wonder how much better the numbers would look if we exclude the game against Nashville where we were pelted. I know you can't pick and choose but 9 goals against is pretty freakish, thats like 3 games worth of goals against.

You going to remove their top goals for game(s) as well?

 

[Mess]

You could deduct from this that our strengthened third and fourth lines will possibly be the ace up our sleeve to dump the slump we had to end the season last year also though.

We were winning through this last stretch without our top line carrying the weight bud. There is hope man. Still though that is some spooky numbers lol. Hopefully we get some moves to alleviate our defensive weaknesses.

This is what Dreger tweeted recently.

Dreger "still a lot of hockey left & I'm in the group that thinks the Leafs will face a considerable amount of struggle/turmoil this year"

 

[ShaneFalco]

The Leafs top unit has actually allowed MORE shots against while on the ice, despite their team improving. Of 313 NHL forwards this season (minimum 200mins 5v5 TOI), Bozak, Kessel and Van Riemsdyk rank 305th, 309th and 310th in terms of shots against per 60 minutes. And for once, the trio aren’t surrounded by teammates at the bottom of the list. Kadri is the next worst forward at 280th (33.6 SA/60), followed by David Clarkson at 201st (30.3 SA/60).



And more importantly this season, Kessel, Bozak and van Riemsdyk aren’t outscoring their defensive problems anymore. All three are currently sub-50% GF% players despite all having PDOs reasonably close to 100.

http://corsihockeyleague.com/2014/12/08/the-defensive-woes-of-the-leafs-top-line/

 

[egd27]

I wonder how much better the numbers would look if we exclude the game against Nashville where we were pelted. I know you can't pick and choose but 9 goals against is pretty freakish, thats like 3 games worth of goals against.

If you take the Nashville game from 9 GA to, let's say 4 GA, the projected season long GA moves from 246 to 230. Significant, but still not a number that's going to put you safely in the playoffs.

 

[zeke]

Interesting Stats results.

2013-14 .. @ 26 games record 14-9-3 = 31 points.
2014-15 .. @ 26 games record 14-9-3 = 31 points.

The more things change the more they stay the same.

Goals Against:
2013-14 ... 82 games 256 GA = 3.12 GA/g
2014-15 ... 26 games 79 GA = 3.04 GA/g [82 games 249 GA]

Most playoff teams give up <= 220 GA per season.

Conclusion: If you can't play defense you will struggle with consistency and success. You will only be able to outscore your mistakes for so long and if the offense dries up as teams tighten up down the stretch then a weak defense will be a teams demise.

i always find it amusing when people pretend defense is more consistent or sustainable than offense.

 

[zeke]

people forget that at this point last year, our hot start had been over for a long time and we were in free fall already by this point.

OCT 13: 14gms, 10-4-0, 14pts, 117pt pace
OCT 14: 10gms, 5-4-1, 11pts, 90pt pace

NOV 13: 13gms, 4-6-3, 11pts, 69pt pace
NOV 14: 13gms, 7-4-2, 16pts, 101pt pace

DEC 13: 14gms, 6-6-2, 14pts, 82pt pace
DEC 14: 3gms, 2-1-0, 4pts, 109pt pace