Any team would be as good or better defensively than Montreal, but only Toronto could be equally as bad and only Toronto ices a defence that Montreal can exploit with speed and forechecking better than any other option, so it's an easy choice. If you look at the game last weekend, Montreal keyed on a few defenders (for example, they repeatedly dumped in or carried in on Jake Gardiner's side every time he was on the ice and he was heavily pressured, and often made ill-considered passes as a result) and it proved quite effective. Montreal outshot the Maple Leafs throughout, and if you factor in blocked shots, they directed significantly more shots on goal. They also out skated Toronto from buzzer to buzzer and repeatedly backed up that defense, and that was with their best skater and faster skater not even in the lineup. As a match up, I think it's the best one they could get.
The Maple Leafs offence is clearly better, but the track record for that offence in the playoffs is not quite solidified and, all things considered, I don't find it terribly scary, particularly the way power play is currently performing and particularly because while the offence is quite talented, outside of Nazem Kadri, it has no push-back at all and in the playoffs, that proves to be an even bigger problem. As such, the Maple Leafs softness, more than anything, is why I would pick them as a first round match up.
