REGULAR SEASON AND IMPORTANCE OF REST
So, where do all the other storylines surrounding Price come from? More to the point, are the negative narratives even inaccurate when it comes to recent regular season performances?
The reality is Price did not have a great — or even good — 2020-21 season, and not just by the standards set early in his career or his status as the NHL’s highest paid goalie.
Using those same metrics from CSA, Price had a -1.5% save percentage differential during the regular season, which ranked 60th among 68 goalies that faced at least 200 scoring chances. His Goals Saved Above Expected was -8.12, meaning he gave up 8.12 more goals than expected based on his workload and the shot quality he faced, which ranked 62nd in the NHL.
Price’s poor performance wasn’t about the Canadiens being a bad defensive team, either. His .895 expected save percentage ranked 18th in the NHL, and Montreal was actually second only to the Dallas Stars in their high-danger chances at 5-on-5 rate, slightly ahead of Toronto and an indicator that first round upset might not have been as unexpected as it seemed. For comparison’s sake, Hellebuyck had a lower expected save percentage (.888), outperformed it at +1.5% and saved 16.48 goals in the regular season,
the fourth most in the NHL.
Going back to last season, Price performed almost exactly as expected and ended up saving the Canadiens 3.74 goals while facing the fifth most chances in the NHL. But much like this year, he seemed to flip a switch in the playoffs, posting +1.6% save percentage differential (fifth best in the playoffs) and 3.49 goals saved and eliminating heavily-favored Pittsburgh Penguins in the play-in round with a .947 raw save percentage in that best-of-five series.
What can we take from that discrepancy between regular season and postseason?
It may not be a coincidence that both followed a long break. Price’s performance in the 2020 playoff bubble came after the NHL shut down for four months because of the pandemic, and his play this season comes after missing the final four weeks with a concussion. As remarkable as his ability to come in relatively cold and perform at a high level is, rest may also matter.
It was something former Canadiens goaltending coach Stephane Waite mentioned discussing workload and balancing between rest and rust for goalies going into the playoffs.
“You have to know what kind of guys you have under you,” said Waite, who won the Stanley Cup twice during eight years as the goaltending coach of the Chicago Blackhawks, and was with the Montreal Canadiens from 2013-14 until being let go on March 2 this season.
“Some goalies, the more they play, the better they are. Like Corey Crawford, don’t give him a day off, he doesn’t like that. The more he’s playing, the better he is. With Carey, it’s completely opposite. You need to manage his schedule. You have to know your guy.”
THE REST OF THE NARRATIVES
While criticism of Price over the past two regular seasons may be fair, at least relative to the expectations of his reputation and current 8-year, $84-million contract, the reality is talk about him not being the same since 2014-15 and the injuries that followed isn’t accurate either.
Just two seasons ago, in 2018-19, Price was the only goalie in the NHL who saved more goals than Vasilevskiy, that season’s Vezina Trophy winner. The idea he hasn’t been good since 2015 is hyperbole, even if consistency has been an issue, especially in the regular season.
