And all the really bad ones from last year just happen to be on basement dwelling teams. 61 goalies played at least 20 games last year... of the bottom 10 only Petr Mrazek played for a playoff team. Columbus, Seattle, New Jersey, Detroit, Montreal all well represented in the bottom 10..the bottom third is pretty much represented by bad teams...bad meaning nonplayoff teams. And the kicker is I'll bet at least a couple of the "really bad ones" end up in the top 20 or so as their team improves this year.
If you can be 55 out of 61 one year then 15 out of 61 the following year either on a different team or an improved team... I'm not sure how much you actually bring to the table?
We see this exact example with Grubauer going from 6th in the league in 2021 with Colorado to 58th of 61 goalies in 2022 with Seattle. He became a "really bad one" overnight.
I wish I had a magic wand and could somehow have watched a 2022 Shesterkin play the months of December through January on the 2022 NJ Devils...He would probably run back to the KHL.
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I've discussed Grubauer ad nauseum on here, including with you.
He was flat out BAD last year. It got to the point where I would start patrolling the main board and even this board and telling everybody to watch some of the goals he had let in that day/night as they were BAD.
The other goalie that played a significant number of games for Seattle last year (Chris Driedger) was below league average, but was still significantly better than Grubauer. If you argued that the expansion team made him look worse being a bit below league average, I could get behind that. What I can't get behind is the idea that the expansion team was the cause for Grubauer being THAT bad and THAT much WORSE than Chris Driedger behind the same team. Driedger didn't play as much, but he did play 27 games.
Driedger last year was just -5.97 goals below the league average save percentage, but just -4.92 GSAx. So he was supposed to perform less than league average by a little bit. He's out with injury to start this year and will be out till early in the calendar year last I heard. They have Martin Jones playing games there, who has been absolute swamp ass for going on 5 years now for the two different teams he's played for (where other goalies more often than not outperformed him behind the same teams) and it's same old, same old with him to start this year in Seattle. He's one of the goalies that have allowed a dead angle goal this year. I don't keep track, but I think there's only been like 5, which is unusual, as there's usual 4 or 5 a week. There's been more wraparounds this year.
The only reason Driedger didn't play more was because their organization had to save face for the 6 year contract they gave Grubauer, in which year one was a DOOZY and year 2 has started off the same way, only now he's injured and on the LTIR. So yeah, they were definitely forcing Grubauer to happen.
Grubauer was a -24.64 goals below a league average save percentage, but he was a -31.53 in GSAx. For some reason Driedger was expected to perform slightly worse than league average, but Grubauer was not. Grubauer this year so far is -3.55 goals below a league average save percentage and he is -3.54 in GSAx. So that's almost exactly even right there. There's teams out there that goalies are expected to play worse than league average, Seattle (when Grubauer plays) ain't one of them. Neither are you New Jersey Devils. Although, if Blackwood were breaking even in GSAx THIS year in the games he's played so far, he'd still be slightly below the league average in save percentage, if that's any consolation. Might be the small sample size and games to start the season, but that hasn't been the case in any other year in the NHL for him. In fact, Blackwood has been a MINUS EVERY YEAR in the NHL in GSAx, although it wasn't by much in his first 2 years in the league. Just a half a goal each year.
But here's something very telling about Grubauer's advanced goalie stats in Colorado. Colorado DID make him look better than he played there. As every year his GSAA exceeded his GSAx there. For instance in 20-21, he saved 13.1 goals above the league average, but he only saved 4.79 goals saved above expected. In 19-20 he saved +5.36 goals above the league average save percentage, but he was a -1.71 GSAx. 18-19 he saved 6.69 goals above a league average save percentage, but he was also a -3.69 in GSAx.
He was a positive in most of his Washington years, but he was a negative in 2 of his 3 years in Colorado, despite being considerably above the league average in save percentage. So yes, going by that Colorado was making him look better than he was there, but Seattle is not supposed to make him look worse since he started playing there. He's not facing as hard of scoring chances as you and the whole ''It's an expansion team though'' crowd thinks.
