Post-Game Talk: Devils' team humiliation in Tampa

[MartyOwns]

Well if people are going to say "Player X keeps setting up player Z, but Z never buries it" why not look to a stat which backs that up?

honest question because i’m curious. here’s the scenario: zajac wins a faceoff in our defensive end, and the puck goes back to severson. severson passes to greene, who flips the puck down on goal where the goalie (not condon) easily stops it and holds on for a faceoff.

greene is credited with a shot. does severson get a shot assist? does zajac get one too?

 

[Bleedred]

honest question because i’m curious. here’s the scenario: zajac wins a faceoff in our defensive end, and the puck goes back to severson. severson passes to greene, who flips the puck down on goal where the goalie (not condon) easily stops it and holds on for a faceoff.

greene is credited with a shot. does severson get a shot assist? does zajac get one too?

That's actually a good question, but there are many arena's in the NHL that do not count a shot from center ice or beyond as a shot on goal. And I'm assuming an assist on a shot is only counted for a shot on goal and not an attempted shot. I actually don't know much about shot assists at all.

 

[BahlDeep]

honest question because i’m curious. here’s the scenario: zajac wins a faceoff in our defensive end, and the puck goes back to severson. severson passes to greene, who flips the puck down on goal where the goalie (not condon) easily stops it and holds on for a faceoff.

greene is credited with a shot. does severson get a shot assist? does zajac get one too?

It's a f***ing misleading stat. Anyone who watched the game yesterday, and comes to conclusion that Mojo was doing the heavy lifting on that line is a f***ing idiot.

Zacha is the one who was helping the defense, breaking out of the zone. He was doing a fair job on the boards. Have anyone seen Mojo play along the boards? Seriously?

 

[MartyOwns]

That's actually a good question, but there are many arena's in the NHL that do not count a shot from center ice or beyond as a shot on goal. And I'm assuming an assist on a shot is only counted for a shot on goal and not an attempted shot. I actually don't know much about shot assists at all.

wait really? is there a source on that? i know some arenas may not count saves on shots that were clearly going wide, but i always understood if like ‘if the goalie wasn’t there, would it have gone in’? yes? then it’s a shot on goal. but i could be wrong

 

[Triumph]

It's a ****ing misleading stat. Anyone who watched the game yesterday, and comes to conclusion that Mojo was doing the heavy lifting on that line is a ****ing idiot.

Zacha is the one who was helping the defense, breaking out of the zone. He was doing a fair job on the boards. Have anyone seen Mojo play along the boards? Seriously?

Johansson is setting people up for shots and getting set up himself. That's what's being observed.

Cordell didn't 'make up' a stat. It's something people have been tracking. If you're going to value assists, and all of you guys obsess over points, then there's absolutely no reason not to consider shot assists - who's setting people up for shots on goal, whether or not they go in?

 

[MartyOwns]

It's a ****ing misleading stat. Anyone who watched the game yesterday, and comes to conclusion that Mojo was doing the heavy lifting on that line is a ****ing idiot.

Zacha is the one who was helping the defense, breaking out of the zone. He was doing a fair job on the boards. Have anyone seen Mojo play along the boards? Seriously?

well, i’m giving it the benefit of the doubt. it’s probably nonsense, but before i say that i want to know what i’m talking about

 

[Bleedred]

wait really? is there a source on that? i know some arenas may not count saves on shots that were clearly going wide, but i always understood if like ‘if the goalie wasn’t there, would it have gone in’? yes? then it’s a shot on goal. but i could be wrong

Well it is well known that some arena's overcount and undercount shots. Prudential Center and the Meadowlands both had reputations for undercounting the shots on goal. And just going to career splits on hockey reference for Marty, you can see that the shots he faced per minute on the road were significantly higher than the shots he faced per minute at home during his career. I remember doing some research a year ago, after hearing Boston had a reputation for over-counting shots and that Rask's career save percentage was boosted by Boston over-counting shots. It's also been long since rumored that Florida counts too many shots, as well as MSG. I actually found that Rask's shots per minute faced at home wasn't really a whole lot different from his shots faced per minute on the road. Same for Lundqvist and same for Luongo (who played half his career outside of Florida).

Some arena's count dump ins and others don't. I remember we were playing the Kings about 5 years ago. This was the game where Schneider stood on his head and we had like 15 shots on goal. It was the first year Schneider was here and we won the game 2-1 in OT. We had like 4 or 5 shots in the first 2 periods and I remember somebody shot the puck at the Kings goalie from our goal line and the shot count definitely stayed the same. That wasn't even one of our shots that night.

 

[My3Sons]

Yeah next we're going to be debating shot attempt assists. At some point we're just inventing stats to see things we're not seeing.

Wait you mean blind up and outs around the boards leading to actually getting out of the d zone against pressure is not a real thing?

 

[NJDevs26]

Johansson is setting people up for shots and getting set up himself. That's what's being observed.

Cordell didn't 'make up' a stat. It's something people have been tracking. If you're going to value assists, and all of you guys obsess over points, then there's absolutely no reason not to consider shot assists - who's setting people up for shots on goal, whether or not they go in?

Except not all shots are created equal, which is my big problem with all the shot-based stats. Sure you can narrow it down with high-danger chances but it is still largely subjective to figure out whether someone's setting up real chances or just setting up stat-padding attempts and whether they're realistic attempts on goal or just in a good position that the player can't do anything with cause they're covered. The only time I noticed #90 last night was when he shanked a wide open shot. I didn't see Zacha get good chances at all, so I don't really put a lot of stock into imaginary setups in this case. Sure the Washington game was obvious but that was really the only game either's played 'well' and that still resulted in nothing.

 

[Triumph]

Except not all shots are created equal, which is my big problem with all the shot-based stats. Sure you can narrow it down with high-danger chances but it is still largely subjective to figure out whether someone's setting up real chances or just setting up stat-padding attempts and whether they're realistic attempts on goal or just in a good position that the player can't do anything with cause they're covered. The only time I noticed #90 last night was when he shanked a wide open shot. I didn't see Zacha get good chances at all, so I don't really put a lot of stock into imaginary setups in this case. Sure the Washington game was obvious but that was really the only game either's played 'well' and that still resulted in nothing.

Have you considered that you don't have a very good memory of the game, or that you don't watch it closely? Because (I assume) Cordell did. I doubt he's just making up numbers. It's an 8-3 game where the whole third period was garbage time. I certainly wasn't watching closely, but I do remember some good Johansson entries.

The numbers Cordell posted do not show Zacha having a good game. You guys don't even know what you're arguing against half the time.

 

[blood gin]

Meadowlands definitely undercounted opposition shots on goal and counted ours fairly. I think it was mostly to preserve and enhance the Devils reputation as a defensive scoring chance stifling juggernaut. That famous 6 shot win over Toronto in the playoffs they maybe had 11 or 12 shots.

 

[blood gin]

Well it is well known that some arena's overcount and undercount shots. Prudential Center and the Meadowlands both had reputations for undercounting the shots on goal. And just going to career splits on hockey reference for Marty, you can see that the shots he faced per minute on the road were significantly higher than the shots he faced per minute at home during his career. I remember doing some research a year ago, after hearing Boston had a reputation for over-counting shots and that Rask's career save percentage was boosted by Boston over-counting shots. It's also been long since rumored that Florida counts too many shots, as well as MSG. I actually found that Rask's shots per minute faced at home wasn't really a whole lot different from his shots faced per minute on the road. Same for Lundqvist and same for Luongo (who played half his career outside of Florida).

Some arena's count dump ins and others don't. I remember we were playing the Kings about 5 years ago. This was the game where Schneider stood on his head and we had like 15 shots on goal. It was the first year Schneider was here and we won the game 2-1 in OT. We had like 4 or 5 shots in the first 2 periods and I remember somebody shot the puck at the Kings goalie from our goal line and the shot count definitely stayed the same. That wasn't even one of our shots that night.

Yes and Boston has done it for decades. Even when they played at the Garden and the rink was small. You had tons of shots anyway and they overcounted. That's how you get something outlandish like Tugnutts 70 saves in 65 minutes

 

[MartyOwns]

Have you considered that you don't have a very good memory of the game, or that you don't watch it closely? Because (I assume) Cordell did. I doubt he's just making up numbers. It's an 8-3 game where the whole third period was garbage time. I certainly wasn't watching closely, but I do remember some good Johansson entries.

The numbers Cordell posted do not show Zacha having a good game. You guys don't even know what you're arguing against half the time.

again, just asking as i’m unfamiliar.

scenario 2: it’s hall and bratt on a 2 on 1. bratt holds it, hall has his stick down waiting for the pass. bratt decides to shoot and winds up scoring. his ‘shot assist’ numbers just plummeted, right?

scenario 3: wood passes to greene, who passes to palms who scores. greene’s shot assist numbers go up, and woods’ doesn’t, right? even though without woods’ pass the goal/shot doesn’t happen?

scenario 4: zacha, in the neutral zone, passes to palms and springs him on a breakaway. it’s a perfect pass, but as palms moves in on the goalie, the puck bobbles and he can’t get a shot away. through no fault of his own, zacha’s shot assists remain stagnant, right?

the multiple factors that need to be considered here skews the data in such a way that i find it very difficult to draw any conclusions from it.

 

[Bleedred]

Yes and Boston has done it for decades. Even when they played at the Garden and the rink was small. You had tons of shots anyway and they overcounted. That's how you get something outlandish like Tugnutts 70 saves in 65 minutes

I remember when I looked up Rask last year, his shots per minute on the road and at home weren't significantly different. Although Rask has really only been a full time goalie in the league for less than 10 years, so maybe they used to overcount them back in the day.

MSG is often said to overcount shots, but I didn't find enough evidence to suggest that Lundqvist faces more shots at home than on the road. I'm starting to wonder if this is a Devils fan bias used to discredit Lundqvist. His shots faced per minute at home are 0.46 and his shots faced per minute on the road in his career are 0.51, unless I did the math wrong. Rask's at home are 0.43 and on the road he's 0.49. Luongo's at home are 0.505 and 0.529 on the road.

I do wonder if teams typically allow more shots on the road than at home. It would make sense that they would be just a little bit.

 

[JK3]

Last year the Devils were 15-14-5 when outshooting their opponent, when being outshot they were 24-12-4. There's plenty of meaningless shots but not many meaningless goals. I despise corsi and every stupid f***ing conversation that takes place afterward when these numbers are cited.

 

[Bleedred]

I have no use for Mojo or Zacha right now. I definitely don't want Mojo re-signed, unless he scores around 50 points this year and it would take the end of the year to find out if he does or not. And also, while he may not show any lasting effects from his concussion and it's too early to say if he has yet, if he scores 40 points or less this year, it's a major red flag to re-sign him, on top of the concussion issue and experiencing a drop off in his first season post-concussion. His points per game as a Devil is already considerably lower than his point per game as a Capital, but it's only 40 games so far.

Furthermore, 9 games into the season and you gotta have a point by now if you're Zacha and used the way Zacha has been used. I still think that he will finish the season with 30 points or so in the end, but the hope was that he would improve in production from his first two years and with this pointless first 9 games, he'd have to go on a pretty good tear (though not an impossible one) to finish with 40 or more points.

 

[Bleedred]

Last year the Devils were 15-14-5 when outshooting their opponent, when being outshot they were 24-12-4. There's plenty of meaningless shots but not many meaningless goals. I despise corsi and every stupid ****ing conversation that takes place afterward when these numbers are cited.

I think because of score effects (outshooting the opponent after you're trailing, especially by multiple goals because it's typical for teams to stop attacking when they have a lead, particularly a multi-goal lead) it's probably common for teams to get outshot and still win/vice versa. And we seemed to really get outshot last year when having a lead and also did a pretty good job outshooting the opponents when trailing, which caused us to come back a few times. Even the Sharks game this year was a good example, how we came back after are trailing for most of the game.

 

[JimEIV]

Hmm...are you saying that you feel Zacha is playing up to his potential? Or, maybe a better question, do you feel Zacha is on an upward trajectory right now?

I don't think anyone expects a 21 year old to be a finished product. So, every young player should be focused on some amount of development work as part of their game. Where do you see Zacha developing right now?

Personally, I feel that Zacha is not physically assertive enough, and that he does not play enough of a north - south game (maybe that's saying the same thing?). I feel that having him play with other players who play a simpler, more physical game could bring that out of Zacha.

I also don't feel like players are moved down the line-up because they can't play D. So, saying Zacha's defensive game is pretty good, why would we move him down" seems odd?

Obviously Zacha is not a finished product and the trajectory has been flat but are we really going to dismiss the fact that he has been used as a 3rd liner almost his entire time in the league? Are we going to make believe that he hasn't been used as a defensive center? Who is the last 3rd line center we've had that produced 25 points before Zacha? Are we going to dismiss the fact that he was never coddled? He was never taken under the wing of a veteran and never really given an opportunity to succeed?

I don't believe players are moved down to improve defense. But I think it's a ridiculous thought to move a player down because lack of scoring because you are going to get even less scoring from a lower line and fewer minutes... again no one is suggesting moving Johansson to lower line.

So what are we trying to improve with Zacha? You want him more aggressive like Hischier? Or like Zajac or Boyle? I am laughing typing that....Truth is, the issue is everyone is unhappy with his point production and everyone isn't happy with his production mainly because he was a 6th overall pick...ok, it is a fair criticism to not be happy with his production but you absolutely have to acknowledge how the usage and the upbringing has contributed to that production.

Now for another glass of the sanguine from St. Emilion.

 

[Quest for Stanley]

Obviously Zacha is not a finished product and the trajectory has been flat but are we really going to dismiss the fact that he has been used as a 3rd liner almost his entire time in the league? Are we going to make believe that he hasn't been used as a defensive center? Who is the last 3rd line center we've had that produced 25 points before Zacha? Are we going to dismiss the fact that he was never coddled? He was never taken under the wing of a veteran and never really given an opportunity to succeed?

I don't believe players are moved down to improve defense. But I think it's a ridiculous thought to move a player down because lack of scoring because you are going to get even less scoring from a lower line and fewer minutes... again no one is suggesting moving Johansson to lower line.

So what are we trying to improve with Zacha? You want him more aggressive like Hischier? Or like Zajac or Boyle? I am laughing typing that....Truth is, the issue is everyone is unhappy with his point production and everyone isn't happy with his production mainly because he was a 6th overall pick...ok, it is a fair criticism to not be happy with his production but you absolutely have to acknowledge how the usage and the upbringing has contributed to that production.

Now for another glass of the sanguine from St. Emilion.

PZ has played almost 150 games and given more opportunity than most. 51pts in 149 games played...a pt every 3 games on average. It’s unlikely he’ll ever be a consistent offensive force.

His ceiling is maybe 3C. On a championship contender he’d be 4C at best.

 

[JimEIV]

PZ has played almost 160 games and given more opportunity than most. It’s unlikely he’ll ever be a consistent offensive force. His ceiling is maybe 3C. On a championship contender he’d be 4C at best.

Come back to me with the top 3 or 4 players he's played in his two year career in minutes and then we can have honest conversation about opportunity.

 

[Quest for Stanley]

Come back to me with the top 3 or 4 players he's played in his two year career in minutes and then we can have honest conversation about opportunity.

??? Don’t understand your point or question

 

[Triumph]

Zacha's gotten plenty of opportunities and has played with plenty of good forwards. He's still only 21, and while that excuse won't really last until the end of the year, I think most people here would be quite surprised how some of their Devils' favorites did at age 21.

 

[MartyOwns]

Come back to me with the top 3 or 4 players he's played in his two year career in minutes and then we can have honest conversation about opportunity.

wood noesen palms? if i’m reading that right

 

[MartyOwns]

would you guys trade zacha for ho-sang and a 3rd? one project for another, and we can bundle our 3rds and get another 2nd. i believe he’s a RW, too

 

[Quest for Stanley]

Zacha's gotten plenty of opportunities and has played with plenty of good forwards. He's still only 21, and while that excuse won't really last until the end of the year, I think most people here would be quite surprised how some of their Devils' favorites did at age 21.

PZ is big 6’3 210lbs and can skate. He can be a solid defensive 3C or 4C who occasionally chips in offensively.

What he’s lacking to be a point a game player (1C or 2C) is elite vision and elite hockey IQ... it can’t be taught... you either have it or you don’t.

For his long term development it’s time to play him in a role where he can excel.