NJDevs26
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- Mar 21, 2007
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Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season part II
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njdevils1982
Hell Toupée!!!
Since certain posters live and die by this playoffs odds generator. Here is the latest
Timo finding his game (hopefully) will be a huge boost
njdevils1982
Hell Toupée!!!
with so much variation across the board i don't know what to believe ... so i don't
it's all taken with salt grains
money puck ... 78%
National Hockey League Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats ... 38%
Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com ... 35%
NHL Eastern Conference Playoff Picture ...51%
NHL 2023-24 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings ... 54%
BomaLightDevils
Registered User
ninetyeight
Registered User
At least Casey for USA and Hämeenaho for Finland.
Billdo
Registered User
Sports Club Stats is literally using a coin flip model. Take the Devils' record so far this season, assume the team is 'that good', and then simulate the season 10,000 times based on that. I suspect h-r is also doing some variation of that.
SteveCangialosi123
Registered User
That seems high given the number of teams that are in it and the randomness inherent in the sport. I still think we’re above a coin flip though. It’ll probably come down to the last game, which basically makes those games playoff games. We finish up with Philly and NYI.
- May 1, 2011
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I think hockey reference had the Yzerfrauds as a playoff team pretty early on, when the other sites weren’t buying them, nor was I.
That was the one playoff predictor site that flattered Detroit after their smoke and mirrors hot start.
For what it’s worth, moneypuck had the Panthers at least a 50% for much of last year. Even when they were around NHL 500 in January. I mocked how high they were on the Panthers, as I had sworn the Panthers just couldn’t make up enough ground.
The Panthers did indeed just get in.
That was the one playoff predictor site that flattered Detroit after their smoke and mirrors hot start.
For what it’s worth, moneypuck had the Panthers at least a 50% for much of last year. Even when they were around NHL 500 in January. I mocked how high they were on the Panthers, as I had sworn the Panthers just couldn’t make up enough ground.
The Panthers did indeed just get in.
Unknown Caller
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- Apr 30, 2009
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The Athletic has the Devils at 54% (somehow behind Pittsburgh at 63% and the Islanders at 74%). My guess is the huge drop off is a result of removing Dougie from the Devils lineup and having limited to no weight to Nemec.
Saugus
Ecrasez l'infame!
I think this is still a playoff team, and depending on the match up we could win a series, but I'm not confident of much beyond that.
A hot goalie and a strong defense are virtually required for a Cup winner. Barring a trade for a goalie or a sudden return by Dougie, I don't think we can count on either of those.
A hot goalie and a strong defense are virtually required for a Cup winner. Barring a trade for a goalie or a sudden return by Dougie, I don't think we can count on either of those.
- May 1, 2011
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Schmid could potentially get hot again.
Vitek could potentially get hot too……….on another team. Too much of that nutcase down the stretch probably means no playoffs.
But with how horrible he’s been on the season, it’s obvious he’s due for some luck and has had luck on his side lately. Which is evidenced by guys missing wide open nets on him (Perron twice last game? Worthless Huberdeau twice in Calgary?) and a bunch of post hits in games where he only allows 2 goals, especially lately.
- Feb 5, 2010
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On paper this is a playoff team, but this season sans one or two games I haven't seen anything that suggests they are a definite playoff team. Maybe a sneak in last wildcard spot and get steamrolled in the first round team.
As of now, I do not like our chances in RD1 against NYR or CAR or whoever wins the Atlantic.
If we could somehow get lucky and find a Adin Hill type, that would go a long way. All I know is, Vitek is not an option and we need to get him off the team.
Defense needs a big boost. Even if Dougie comes back for RD1, he is unlikely to be effective I'd think and he may never be the same player again.
- May 1, 2011
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Vitek definitely needs to go. I think he’ll be fine somewhere else, but he’s probably been absolutely done here since the playoffs last year. It’s been evident since some point early in November that he wasn’t coming back from that.
I think this is his last year here for sure. He’ll either be a cap dump or used to acquire another goalie for the other team to take back. He only has one year remaining on his deal after this.
If he is here next year then it probably means he finished having a season on par with last year.
For him to finish on par with last year he’s going to have to play his best goalie he’s ever played with the Devils, if not his entire career from now through season’s end.
Dougie is not even the area of concern on D.
It's a lefty who can handle heavy defensive minutes. Right now we have 2 lefties who are defensively oriented, yet can't handle the hard minutes.
Maybe those guys improve in the 2nd half? I legit think that is possible. Not sure what trade possibilities are out there.
I do think if we hope to go on any sort of playoff run, we need to add a goalie. I think we can scrape buy with the guys we have if we tighten up defensively, but I don't have faith in either come playoff time. Maybe if Akira gets hot I'd change my mind.
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Unknown Caller
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- Apr 30, 2009
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Unfortunately, I don’t see a goalie who will be available to trade for and will make a noticeable difference in net. The Devils are going to have to deal with what they have. I’m not sure the Jake Allens of the world will change all that much.
- Dec 20, 2018
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- Jan 24, 2007
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Recaping:
- Moneypuck says Devils have the 5th best playoff chances in the east.
- The Athletic says 9th best
- Betting odds say 6th best
Not yet time to panic, but to me the biggest question remains can we expect the goaltending to actually improve?
- Moneypuck says Devils have the 5th best playoff chances in the east.
- The Athletic says 9th best
- Betting odds say 6th best
Not yet time to panic, but to me the biggest question remains can we expect the goaltending to actually improve?
The goaltending will be better in the second half of the season. I would bet an incredibly large amount of money on it. It’s virtually a lock.
The question is whether it’s better enough.
The question is whether it’s better enough.
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Call Me Al
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- Aug 28, 2017
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none of these playoff models are any reason to panic in my opinion. there are too many variables and streaks and outliers within a season that just relying on a predictive model is useless.
i think the recent proliferation of these as a social media talking point is just to promote engagement and likes, but there’s no inherent value in saying a team has a 65% chance of making the playoffs after 25 games but 50% after 30 games when there’s 5 points separating 8 teams from 4 playoff spots and 50+ games to play
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Yeah I can’t imagine what the model is. If hypothetically you had enough big data points from 30 years or more of seasons to feed into a computer and asked it to find statistical correlations without any prejudices at all, the results could be interesting. But I very much doubt that is the sort of inquiry behind this.
- May 1, 2011
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Well, Moneypuck did have the Panthers at like a 51% or even better chance to get in from January onward, which I endlessly mocked them for being so high on them. It's not that they weren't a good team, it's just that it felt like they were pretty buried. I'm pretty sure they were NHL 500 not too long before the all star break.
Luckily, we're not in as bad of a spot as the eventual playoff making Panthers were in back in January.
I think most of the models make sense and takes into account things, like for instance, how most of them have the Capitals not in. It's pretty easy to see the Capitals are a fluke machine this year. Unless you really believe some caveman theory that they're where they are because they have a bunch of veterans that have won and still know how to win and blah blah blah. Yeah, those same veterans that have won and still know how to win have basically been next to useless all year and have been reduced to bone dust at this point.
The one team in the East close to as fluky as Washington is Detroit, and their fraudulent start has now completely evaporated.
Luckily, we're not in as bad of a spot as the eventual playoff making Panthers were in back in January.
I think most of the models make sense and takes into account things, like for instance, how most of them have the Capitals not in. It's pretty easy to see the Capitals are a fluke machine this year. Unless you really believe some caveman theory that they're where they are because they have a bunch of veterans that have won and still know how to win and blah blah blah. Yeah, those same veterans that have won and still know how to win have basically been next to useless all year and have been reduced to bone dust at this point.
The one team in the East close to as fluky as Washington is Detroit, and their fraudulent start has now completely evaporated.
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