Devils Team Discussion (current team/player news and notes) ‎2014-2015 Part XV

[AfroThunder396]

I'm not going to hold Zidlicky up on a pedestal and say he's great or anything, but really he is a convenient lightning rod for criticism. When the team is doing well nobody really criticizes him that much and he's a joy to watch.

 

[Emperoreddy]

After this year we have to draft as best we can, and just keep developing our D and putting the most competitive team we can out there. Try to improve the forward core both from the system, maybe a good signing or two, and eventually a trade or two.

Why developing all our D is so key. Eventually we will be able to make an effective trade. Helps that Jacobs looks like he can be a pretty good player. The more D depth, the more other guys can become "expendable" in trading for forwards.

We can't effectively develop our D if we plan to purposefully tank for the next 3 years. Have to try and be competitive.

If we are to build another contender it will be like the old cup teams. Goaltending and defense will lead the way and have to be the elite part of our team and will have to make do with the best we can at forward. Hopefully we can draft this year the next Elias or prime Gomez.

 

[Oneiro]

Though he's a high risk, high reward guy, I do feel that Zid steps up when it matters. It's a tough job to try to create something when your team is falling asleep. You are bound to look bad more than a few times.

 

[The Wumpus]

I'm not going to hold Zidlicky up on a pedestal and say he's great or anything, but really he is a convenient lightning rod for criticism. When the team is doing well nobody really criticizes him that much and he's a joy to watch.

I maintain that he scores the most aesthetically pleasing goals of anyone on the team.

 

[billingtons ghost]

We should still try and pick up Semin. Semin was criticized when he put up 40g 44a and is going to get criticized when he only has 1g in 26 games. He will always get criticized as he is an easy target. He never responses to the criticism.

New GM and new coach who probably never wanted Semin on the team. He is coming off a poor season where he dealt with a concussion and wrist injury. I think some team is going to be able to get him and he will get back to being 50+ point player.

Gee if only the numbers mattered... If you could find a way for that floating cancer to just add 40g without actually having to be on the team...

Come on already. The guy is a joke. He is an easy target because he makes himself one. He is everything devils hockey is not.

And btw, for those complaining about our third liner mentality, I watched the 2003 cup win today... That entire team was third liners.

 

[tr83]

And btw, for those complaining about our third liner mentality, I watched the 2003 cup win today... That entire team was third liners.

Exaggeration of the day, perhaps?

You're telling me Patty was a third liner? Sure, right.

There was a lengthy discussion about what makes a first liner several months ago: Skill, points, etc. The top 90 nondefense point producers which would are first liners. Forward #90 scored 48 points last year.

The dead puck era was probably less.

Plus how many points would guys on that team have scored if they were allowed to open it up offensively?

 

[NJDevs26]

Plus that team had two first-ballot Hall of Famers on defense and maybe the best goaltender ever in his prime. That model's not realistic in a cap era.

As far as Semin, how much more proof does anyone need that this guy's been floating since he got his contract? Especially with 'multiple' coaches and GM's in Carolina all coming to the same conclusion, the notion they don't like him is one-sided. Of course they don't like him, why would they like a scorer who isn't scoring or trying? He was only a good scorer when he was singing for his supper, the minute he got the big deal in Carolina he cratered.

 

[tailfins]

Plus that team had two first-ballot Hall of Famers on defense and maybe the best goaltender ever in his prime. That model's not realistic in a cap era.

Umm...we have a phenomenal set of d-prospects and one of the top 10 (5?) goalies in the league right now. Why can't the Devils replicate that model?

To answer my own question, I think it has much less to do with cap and much more to do with how the NHL is changing the game. I think the NHL will keep tweaking the game to favor offense. Watching great plays - resulting in goals, incredible saves, etc. - is exciting. The NHL gets that and is trying to encourage it. Good positioning: not exciting. Clogged neutral zone: not exciting.

As it stands right now, though, the rules still allow a team with a great goalie and structured style to do very well. And, from a cap perspective, it's actually more efficient to put money against goaltending and D. Figure you only need to pay 4 D and 1 G: that's 5 guys. Your goalie will play 65 games and pretty much every minute of every playoff game. Your 4 D will play 45 - 50 minutes. Meanwhile, if you put that same money into forwards, you wouldn't even have filled out your top 6.

If I were Lou, I would have looked for forwards instead of a goalie, but I do think Lou's strategy has a shot. As long as the game doesn't change too much, I see no reason why Lou can't deliver a very competitive team (even cup caliber) by building from the net out.

 

[NJDevs26]

First of all Stevens, Nieds and Marty would combine for about 40% of the cap between them. Throw in Elias and it's over 50%. Even overpaying 'third liners' like Joey N or Madden would cost a pretty penny with current FA rules, not to mention Gomez, Rafalski...it's just a different world now.

More to the point it's impossible to expect ANY group of prospects and young D to sprout HOF'ers in their prime. Stevens and Nieds at 25 weren't even what they were at 30. Maybe it'll happen but even if it does it'll be years before any of these guys reach that level.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Did someone call Nieuwendyk a third liner? Guy was a beast in NJ.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Exaggeration of the day, perhaps?

You're telling me Patty was a third liner? Sure, right.

There was a lengthy discussion about what makes a first liner several months ago: Skill, points, etc. The top 90 nondefense point producers which would are first liners. Forward #90 scored 48 points last year.

The dead puck era was probably less.

Plus how many points would guys on that team have scored if they were allowed to open it up offensively?

Gomez Marshall Elias
Friesen langs rupp
Pandolfo madden gionta
Brylin Stevenson rheaume


What does that look like to you?

And that's not one time 46 goal gionta, it is a rookie version... Like maybe boosh would look like next year.

Please try to tell me that rheaume would have scored 50 if they opened it up. Other than your cherry picked Elias, Gomez is the only real talent of a group that has a couple of disappointing first rounders like Bernier, and a whole lot of gutsy 3rd line style guys.

My point was not to disparage, but to point out that teams don't need super talents like semin and kovy, but we aren't as far off and the interchangeable parts plan works too...

 

[billingtons ghost]

Did someone call Nieuwendyk a third liner? Guy was a beast in NJ.

Didn't play in the finals. Also, he wasn't a 'beast' anymore than andreychuk was a beast. He was a nice player towards the end of his career... Much like you are seeing with 1st line jagr who should be 3rd line jagr on the bruins, for example.

 

[Burner Account]

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-p...-bubble-teams--trending-topics-145418060.html

Kind of reminded me of recent Devils teams

So that, I guess, is the formula. There were three teams out of 68 — 4.4 percent, a little better than 1 in 23 — to make the playoffs after being more than four points out on Feb 1, and they all had four things in common:

1. Games in hand.

2. Insane special teams success in terms of either killing penalties, making the other team pay for them, or both.

3. One of the biggest PDOs in the league.

4. The ability to get to overtime in close to 1 in every 3 games.

 

[Bleedred]

Did someone call Nieuwendyk a third liner? Guy was a beast in NJ.

I don't think so.

He was a second line center at best. He really wasn't even any better with us than Zajac is at this point.

He had 47 points that year, well below what he had done prior to coming here. And he also wound up having a better season in Toronto after he left.

He had so many goal scoring droughts that year, it was beyond maddening. He also had almost as many two goal games as he had long goal droughts. I swear he had a handful of two goal games, then would go invisible again for another handful.

 

[Bleedred]

Gomez Marshall Elias
Friesen langs rupp
Pandolfo madden gionta
Brylin Stevenson rheaume


What does that look like to you?

And that's not one time 46 goal gionta, it is a rookie version... Like maybe boosh would look like next year.

Please try to tell me that rheaume would have scored 50 if they opened it up. Other than your cherry picked Elias, Gomez is the only real talent of a group that has a couple of disappointing first rounders like Bernier, and a whole lot of gutsy 3rd line style guys.

My point was not to disparage, but to point out that teams don't need super talents like semin and kovy, but we aren't as far off and the interchangeable parts plan works too...

Yeah I'm not gonna say it was a team of all third liners, but there was definitely third liners all throughout the lineup.

Elias and Gomez were the only undisputed top 6 guys. Langenbrunner and Friesen (at least Friesen up to that point) were borderline.

Rheaume, Marshall, Brylin, Madden, Pandolfo, Rupp, Stevenson, were all third liners at best. Half of them were probably even 4th line at best.

Nieuwendyk was a borderline 2nd line center at that point.

HOF and best goalie in the world, two HOF defensemen, and a HOF head coach were the highlights of that team.

 

[Bleedred]

Didn't play in the finals. Also, he wasn't a 'beast' anymore than andreychuk was a beast. He was a nice player towards the end of his career... Much like you are seeing with 1st line jagr who should be 3rd line jagr on the bruins, for example.

Nieuwendyk with us was definitely like 2014-2015 Jagr. He did go on to have one more pretty good year in Toronto.

He frustrated the hell out of me though.

Not as much as the cremated remains of Igor Larionov, who wound up replacing him the next year.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Yeah I'm not gonna say it was a team of all third liners, but there was definitely third liners all throughout the lineup.

Elias and Gomez were the only undisputed top 6 guys. Langenbrunner and Friesen (at least Friesen up to that point) were borderline.

Rheaume, Marshall, Brylin, Madden, Pandolfo, Rupp, Stevenson, were all third liners at best. Half of them were probably even 4th line at best.

Nieuwendyk was a borderline 2nd line center at that point.

HOF and best goalie in the world, two HOF defensemen, and a HOF head coach were the highlights of that team.

Yep.

Just to draw parallels with guys under contract:
Top 5 NHL goalie (when on his game)
2 Dmen with #1 potential Larsson/Sevs
2 Dman with #2 potential Greene/Merrill
2 Dmen with 2nd pairing potential Santini/Gelinas
1 Dman with shutdown 3rd pairing potential Hegelson
3-4 other potential NHL Dmen or trading pieces (Scarlett, Jacobs, Burlon?)

(So the real dangerous question is - can the combo of 6 at their combined peak of Sevs, Greene, Larsson, Merrill, Gelinas, Santini >= Stevens, Nieds, Rafalski, x, x, x ... where the three x's were peak Colin White, an older Albelin and an older Daneyko at the time). I'd be inclined to say no...

Henrique good 2nd liner
Cammy good 2nd liner
Zajac good 2nd liner
Elias at this point 2nd/3rd liner
JJ 3rd liner, maybe borderline 2ndliner with growing curve
Ruutuu decent 3rd liner
Boosh/Matteau could/should make 3rd line jump next year
Zubrus 4th liner

Assume Ryder/Jagr/Zids moves nets a 3rd liner

Gionta/Bernier 4th liners

I'd ideally like to see 2-3 contributors come from somewhere to push Zubrus, Gionta and Bernier out of the mix, and move everyone down a notch. Maybe one out of the draft. Maybe one from UFA. Maybe a Graham Black or Paul Thompson are legit...

I get the sentiment of 'hey wouldn't it be nice to get some #1 talent' - but I think it is more necessary to find some guys like Gionta who play on the third line but eventually move up to become a nice 2nd line guy potting 30+ goals. (and before I get flamed - that's Brian, not the nose.)

 

[DenisSamson3]

https://twitter.com/GunnerStaal/status/560847600920698880

Can anyone explain what these statistics mean? I saw it im a few articles about the Jagr trade rumors. Looks interesting, but I can't decipher it.

 

[billingtons ghost]

https://twitter.com/GunnerStaal/status/560847600920698880

Can anyone explain what these statistics mean? I saw it im a few articles about the Jagr trade rumors. Looks interesting, but I can't decipher it.

pretty intriguing.

I think someone set some arbitrary levels for what it means to be an average '1st line' guy around the league, and then applied Jagr's stats to them...

meaning - he scores goals/60minutes at the pace of a 3rd line guy, but his other numbers are of a 1st liner.

bottom line: Jagr == good, and ridiculously good for a 42 year old.

 

[R8Devs]

It basically means that when he's on the ice the Devils attempt more shots than give up, he generates scoring chances at a top line rate, and has good production for a top 6 player.

 

[DenisSamson3]

But he is a minus 11. That means that even though the other team may get less chances, the rate of conversion is higher so it balances it out I guess.

 

[billingtons ghost]

But he is a minus 11. That means that even though the other team may get less chances, the rate of conversion is higher so it balances it out I guess.

Could be that stats don't always accurately show what is going on upon the ice? Nah.

 

[Zippy316]

Does anyone have, or know where I can find, like a day-to-day look at the Devils penalty kill stats?

Like I want to see how the Devils have been since they were at their utter worst during the PK. I know it was hovering close to 60 percent for a while, the fact that it's 80% right now is pretty remarkable if you ask me.

 

[tycobb]

Could be that stats don't always accurately show what is going on upon the ice? Nah.

Well +/- is one of the worst stats when judging a player.

Jagr leads the team again in FF%.

 

[devilsblood]

Does anyone have, or know where I can find, like a day-to-day look at the Devils penalty kill stats?

Like I want to see how the Devils have been since they were at their utter worst during the PK. I know it was hovering close to 60 percent for a while, the fact that it's 80% right now is pretty remarkable if you ask me.

Box score by box score is an easy but tedious way to go about it.