Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XIX

[StevenToddIves]

Zacha is 3rd worst since 18-19 among Devils forwards with at least 500 5v5 minutes played in CA/60. Only better than Simmonds and Wood. Worst in xGA/60. 3rd worst in SCA/60. Only better than Simmonds and Wood. 2nd worst in HDCA/60. Only better than Gusev.

Zacha is not good defensively. Good PK guy=/=Good defensive player

I'll be honest, I have no idea what those numbers you posted are exactly. But I do watch the Devils almost every game, and find him to be far better positionally, covering his man, and clearing the zone than the average forward -- especially when compared to some Fs the Devils were giving regular minutes to last year. He's not cowed by physicality and he's adept at zone entries and exits.

I'm not voting Zacha for the Selke, but let's face it -- any time a statistic favors John Hayden to Pavel Zacha, we need to be criticizing the statistic, not Pavel Zacha.

 

[Hisch13r]

Yea I mean since beginning of 2019 Zacha is at 1.25 Points/60 at Even Strength. For comparison that's what Zajac and Butcher are at exactly. So well, well, well below Palmieri, Wood, Gusev, Hischier, Bratt, and even Hughes who struggled last year to score on the 5-5. Johnsson's more productive on it. Hell small sample, but McLeod is above him too.

His possession metrics aren't great. Doesn't bring nearly the defensive value that Zajac does. Makes plenty of defensive lapses. Can't be a 3rd line center for us.

He's an NHL caliber player, but I don't really know what makes him standout in a lineup. He's not productive enough at even-strength even when putting him with top 6 players like Hughes, Bratt, Nico. So what is his fit here long-term?

The one thing I'll give him credit for is that he is solid on the PP. For a unit that hasn't been great, he's probably the strongest guy we have on it.

Since 2019 out of 287 qualified guys with 100 minutes on the PP, Zacha ranks 72nd in Points/60, higher than Palmieri even.

So I guess a bottom 6 (really 4th line guy at ES) and a Power Play specialist is his role? I don't know I just think he's replaceable. My main problem is Ruff seems to really like him. Gusev has been brutal, absolutely brutal, but he's shown flashes of scoring at ES at rates that Zacha hasn't come even close to touching.

Everyone has struggled on the PK this year but he's generally also been a really good on the PK.

 

[My3Sons]

I’m not sure you can transpose any result statistic or otherwise from the Hynes era. To me everyone gets a clean slate for this season and we go from there. If Zacha can improve under Ruff than that’s great. Most players need a good fit to be successful it’s the exceptional player that can be a difference maker in all situations in all systems at all times.

 

[Hisch13r]

I’m not sure you can transpose any result statistic or otherwise from the Hynes era. To me everyone gets a clean slate for this season and we go from there. If Zacha can improve under Ruff than that’s great. Most players need a good fit to be successful it’s the exceptional player that can be a difference maker in all situations in all systems at all times.

Small sample so far but the same things are holding true. Bad defensive numbers and a bad 5v5 production rate

 

[Forge]

I have this weird desire to pull Zacha off the PK and give him more PP time while doing the opposite with Nico.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Yea I mean since beginning of 2019 Zacha is at 1.25 Points/60 at Even Strength. For comparison that's what Zajac and Butcher are at exactly. So well, well, well below Palmieri, Wood, Gusev, Hischier, Bratt, and even Hughes who struggled last year to score on the 5-5. Johnsson's more productive on it. Hell small sample, but McLeod is above him too.

His possession metrics aren't great. Doesn't bring nearly the defensive value that Zajac does. Makes plenty of defensive lapses. Can't be a 3rd line center for us.

He's an NHL caliber player, but I don't really know what makes him standout in a lineup. He's not productive enough at even-strength even when putting him with top 6 players like Hughes, Bratt, Nico. So what is his fit here long-term?

The one thing I'll give him credit for is that he is solid on the PP. For a unit that hasn't been great, he's probably the strongest guy we have on it.

Since 2019 out of 287 qualified guys with 100 minutes on the PP, Zacha ranks 72nd in Points/60, higher than Palmieri even.

So I guess a bottom 6 (really 4th line guy at ES) and a Power Play specialist is his role? I don't know I just think he's replaceable. My main problem is Ruff seems to really like him. Gusev has been brutal, absolutely brutal, but he's shown flashes of scoring at ES at rates that Zacha hasn't come even close to touching.

Just curious what makes you say that? I got the impression he was neutral on him. He seems to bounce him around the lineup based on who is available. I am fine with him on PP2 and the PK.

 

[The 29th Pick]

I'll be honest, I have no idea what those numbers you posted are exactly. But I do watch the Devils almost every game, and find him to be far better positionally, covering his man, and clearing the zone than the average forward -- especially when compared to some Fs the Devils were giving regular minutes to last year. He's not cowed by physicality and he's adept at zone entries and exits.

I'm not voting Zacha for the Selke, but let's face it -- any time a statistic favors John Hayden to Pavel Zacha, we need to be criticizing the statistic, not Pavel Zacha.

Sports stats are like Google searches on a topic, you'll find articles that support your topic and articles that don't.

 

[Billdo]

Zacha is still exceedingly mediocre. A week of good production won’t sway me from that belief, how many times does this have to happen? If he can put together an actual extended stretch of good play, that’s another thing.

Dude it's 50 games with the same amount of points as Bratt who never gets even close to the amount of crap Zacha does.

 

[Jets012]

Just curious what makes you say that? I got the impression he was neutral on him. He seems to bounce him around the lineup based on who is available. I am fine with him on PP2 and the PK.

Could be bias on my part. I feel like he's been getting a lot of top 6 chances late in games when I watch. But I could very well be making that up.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Dude it's 50 games with the same amount of points as Bratt who never gets even close to the amount of crap Zacha does.

Jesper Bratt is orders of magnitude better than Zacha. It isn’t close.

 

[Jets012]

Dude it's 50 games with the same amount of points as Bratt who never gets even close to the amount of crap Zacha does.

I'll go from start of 2019 season so 67 games for Bratt and 78 for Zacha.

5-on-5 Stats:
Bratt - 774 minutes, 14 goals, 13 assists (10 1st, 3 2nd), 27 Points
Zacha - 909 minutes, 5 goals, 14 assists (8 1st, 6 2nd), 19 Points

Power Play Stats:
Bratt - 141 minutes, 1 goals, 6 assists (5 1st, 1 2nd), 7 Points
Zacha - 133 minutes, 4 goals, 8 assists (3 1st, 3 2nd), 11 Points

Zacha has been better than Bratt on the Power-Play. But Bratt is still significantly more impactful on the 5-on-5. 130 less minutes 8 more points. Way better finisher and play creator. And he's much much better in transition than Zacha.

I'd rather have the guy who scores at even strength (way harder to find and way larger sample) than the guy who's a better Power Play player.

That's not even going into possession metrics which Bratt blows Zacha out of the water. That's why Bratt gets significantly less hate

 

[Guttersniped]

I'll be honest, I have no idea what those numbers you posted are exactly. But I do watch the Devils almost every game, and find him to be far better positionally, covering his man, and clearing the zone than the average forward -- especially when compared to some Fs the Devils were giving regular minutes to last year. He's not cowed by physicality and he's adept at zone entries and exits.

I'm not voting Zacha for the Selke, but let's face it -- any time a statistic favors John Hayden to Pavel Zacha, we need to be criticizing the statistic, not Pavel Zacha.

The OP said “among Devils forwards with at least 500 5v5 minutes” and Hayden played slightly less then 400 total 5v5 minutes with the Devils.

 

[Billdo]

I'll go from start of 2019 season so 67 games for Bratt and 78 for Zacha.

5-on-5 Stats:
Bratt - 774 minutes, 14 goals, 13 assists (10 1st, 3 2nd), 27 Points
Zacha - 909 minutes, 5 goals, 14 assists (8 1st, 6 2nd), 19 Points

Power Play Stats:
Bratt - 141 minutes, 1 goals, 6 assists (5 1st, 1 2nd), 7 Points
Zacha - 133 minutes, 4 goals, 8 assists (3 1st, 3 2nd), 11 Points

Zacha has been better than Bratt on the Power-Play. But Bratt is still significantly more impactful on the 5-on-5. 130 less minutes 8 more points. Way better finisher and play creator. And he's much much better in transition than Zacha.

I'd rather have the guy who scores at even strength (way harder to find and way larger sample) than the guy who's a better Power Play player.

That's not even going into possession metrics which Bratt blows Zacha out of the water. That's why Bratt gets significantly less hate

That's cool. The fact of the matter remains that they both have the same amount of points in the same amount of games. So any stat you want to throw out there to fit your narrative is fine. At the end of the day though, how they're getting their points and when is kind of irrelevant. Stats can be used to justify any argument. People hate Zacha but slurp Bratt and the stats show them having the same totals in the same amount of games.

 

[glenwo2]

Ruff's last team is No.2 on the list.

Okay...this is a bit concerning.

 

[glenwo2]

That's cool. The fact of the matter remains that they both have the same amount of points in the same amount of games. So any stat you want to throw out there to fit your narrative is fine. At the end of the day though, how they're getting their points and when is kind of irrelevant. Stats can be used to justify any argument. People hate Zacha but slurp Bratt and the stats show them having the same totals in the same amount of games.

Hey now....

Let's keep things PG around here.

 

[HischierSeDgewOrk]

That's cool. The fact of the matter remains that they both have the same amount of points in the same amount of games. So any stat you want to throw out there to fit your narrative is fine. At the end of the day though, how they're getting their points and when is kind of irrelevant. Stats can be used to justify any argument. People hate Zacha but slurp Bratt and the stats show them having the same totals in the same amount of games.

Also with the better talent Bratt usually plays with he should have more points.. why doesn't he? Can someone show me fancy stats showing that?

 

[glenwo2]

Also with the better talent Bratt usually plays with he should have more points.. why doesn't he? Can someone show me fancy stats showing that?

No. He really should do better.

But Bratt is still great because he is.

Is Zacha better than him? This season, they are about even as far as stats go.

Overall(career-wise, thus far), though...

 

[Hisch13r]

That's cool. The fact of the matter remains that they both have the same amount of points in the same amount of games. So any stat you want to throw out there to fit your narrative is fine. At the end of the day though, how they're getting their points and when is kind of irrelevant. Stats can be used to justify any argument. People hate Zacha but slurp Bratt and the stats show them having the same totals in the same amount of games.

Since the start of last season with at least 200 minutes Bratt is 1st among Devils forwards in CF% at 49.66. Zacha is 13th out of 15... He is only ahead of Rooney and Hayden. He sits at 43.95. xGF% Bratt is 2nd to Palmieri at 51.31%. Zacha is 13th of 15 again. Only ahead of Boqvist and Hayden. He is at 42.83%. SCF% Bratt is 2nd to Palmieri again at 48.7. Zacha 13th of 15 again. Ahead of Boqvist and Hayden. HDCF% Bratt 2nd to Palmieri at 53.99%. Guess where Zacha is? You guessed it. 41.59% and only ahead of Boqvist and Hayden

 

[Billdo]

Since the start of last season with at least 200 minutes Bratt is 1st among Devils forwards in CF% at 49.66. Zacha is 13th out of 15... He is only ahead of Rooney and Hayden. He sits at 43.95. xGF% Bratt is 2nd to Palmieri at 51.31%. Zacha is 13th of 15 again. Only ahead of Boqvist and Hayden. He is at 42.83%. SCF% Bratt is 2nd to Palmieri again at 48.7. Zacha 13th of 15 again. Ahead of Boqvist and Hayden. HDCF% Bratt 2nd to Palmieri. Guess where Zacha is? You guessed it. 41.59% and only ahead of Boqvist and Hayden

How many points does Bratt have in his last 100 games?

 

[Hisch13r]

How many points does Bratt have in his last 100 games?

It's almost like there's more to hockey than just raw pt totals.

 

[Hisch13r]

Also with the better talent Bratt usually plays with he should have more points.. why doesn't he? Can someone show me fancy stats showing that?

Bratt was 2nd in 5v5 P/60 last season to Gusev. 18-19 Bratt was 2nd to Hall. Sounds more like everyone else should be producing more because they're playing with Bratt rather than the other way around.

 

[The 29th Pick]

Ruff's last team is No.2 on the list.

maybe cause he lets the kids play it kinda hurts certain area's? I think Bryce was saying something to that effect during the last game

Okay...this is a bit concerning.

I read read the news today oh boy...
and I just had to laugh

 

[Billdo]

It's almost like there's more to hockey than just raw pt totals.

While there is in fact more to it than just that, at the end of the day if all those stats indicate one player being so much better than the other, why are the raw point totals not skewed more in their favor?

 

[Triumph]

Exactly why if this year weren't crazy because of expansion and the virus that Zacha should be traded ASAP. There's always a few GMs who determine who is good by points and where they were drafted. Let them have Zacha.

Zacha's PK prowess has also totally disappeared which makes it seem like he was a timeslot hit. Being the 2nd unit PKer is so much easier for a myriad of reasons and having Kevin Rooney play along side him probably helped out too. Rooney was a cipher 5v5 but he was a very good penalty killing forward.

 

[Jets012]

That's cool. The fact of the matter remains that they both have the same amount of points in the same amount of games. So any stat you want to throw out there to fit your narrative is fine. At the end of the day though, how they're getting their points and when is kind of irrelevant. Stats can be used to justify any argument. People hate Zacha but slurp Bratt and the stats show them having the same totals in the same amount of games.

I mean I think the process has to mean something.

Maybe a stupid analogy but let's say I'm driving from NYC to Washington DC. I take 95 the whole way and my buddy takes a mixture of 95, 83, and backroads. He adds 50 miles to the trip. There was a major accident on 95, I hit traffic, and it takes me 5 hours to get there. Take him 5 hours to get there as well. Get there at the same time.

Sure the result was the same, but I'd bet a substantial amount of money the next time we both travel that way, I'll get there much faster.