Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) part IV

[RangerDoggo]

Meanwhile, TSN's power rankings dropped us from 4th to 17th this week, right above the Isles, Yotes, and Vegas, and below Buffalo and Columbus.

That’s the kind of treatment I fully expect from hockey journos. Meanwhile they won’t shut the f*** about Carolina even though they’re in that giant cluster around the top of the Metro.

 

[BenedictGomez]

he's proven to be a solid ahl'er with potential and nothing more, yet.

Given it's rare for a 6th round pick to even make the NHL, he's looking like a helluva pick thus far, because if he just continues what he's done the first 20+ games of his professional career, he's definitely going to make it. Still, 20 games isn't a lot of data.

That said, when you look at his NCAA stats, it's pretty clear to me that the only reason he wasnt drafted higher is because of how small he is. If he had the same stat line in college, but was 6'0" and 188 pounds, I bet he would have been a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick.

 

[None Shall Pass]

Meanwhile, TSN's power rankings dropped us from 4th to 17th this week, right above the Isles, Yotes, and Vegas, and below Buffalo and Columbus.

Power rankings are very much a "what have you done for me lately" thing - we lost a few games recently, bound to happen.

 

[Dialamo]

The benefit of power ranking articles is to get a good update about how teams are doing lately. If you ignore the arbitrary number rankings (which don't mean anything), it's a nice way to get up to date on recent team trends and news. There's no way to accurately rank teams weekly anyways, and people are always going to complain about where certain teams are ranked, so it's best to ignore the number rank altogether.

 

[RangerDoggo]

Most power rankings tend to have continuity on a weekly basis and aren’t just a ranking of how a team did in a given week.

 

[None Shall Pass]

FWIW, Ryan Lambert has us at 5th: NHL Power Rankings: Penguins back to their dangerous selves

 

[Jack Be Quick]

If in your fantasy, Nylander is worth Seney + 2nd + 3rd, I want Matthews.

An offer sheet would require a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, hence why I didn't think it was a terribly outlandish idea.

 

[FooteBahl]

Given it's rare for a 6th round pick to even make the NHL, he's looking like a helluva pick thus far, because if he just continues what he's done the first 20+ games of his professional career, he's definitely going to make it. Still, 20 games isn't a lot of data.

That said, when you look at his NCAA stats, it's pretty clear to me that the only reason he wasnt drafted higher is because of how small he is. If he had the same stat line in college, but was 6'0" and 188 pounds, I bet he would have been a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick.

Thank baby Jesus for picks like him and Bratt. Picks like these offset the disappointment in prospects like McLeod and Zacha...although I am far from giving up on either one.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

An offer sheet would require a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, hence why I didn't think it was a terribly outlandish idea.

are you equating Seney to a 1st round pick? Hmm...

that offer wouldn't even make Toronto remotely interested.

 

[Nubmer6]

Thank baby Jesus for picks like him and Bratt. Picks like these offset the disappointment in prospects like McLeod and Zacha...although I am far from giving up on either one.

Man, between Bratt, Seney, Davies, Chainey and Talvitie, I'm hoping we have a whole STABLE of unicorns.

 

[Nubmer6]

An offer sheet would require a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, hence why I didn't think it was a terribly outlandish idea.

I'm curious of what people think...

If Nylander were a UFA right now, what would people here pay for him? Would he be worth the 8M he's asking for? I mean, I'm sure he'd get at least that cause there's always some GMs that would pay/over pay, although I read somewhere that they polled some GMs around the league, and he majority would be reluctant to pay him that much.

Even if he would be theoretically worth, say, 10M on the UFA market, would it be worth it to pay him 8M *AND* give up significant assets?

 

[Devils Dominion]

Rooney over Anderson, I don't like that

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

Rooney over Anderson, I don't like that

Different roles

 

[BahlDeep]

Severson been our best defenseman this year.

Don't @ me

 

[Devils Dominion]

Different roles

You can slide Coleman to center and put Joey at RW

We have two non-NHL players in the lineup tonight

 

[Zippy316]

This lovefest with Rooney is going to be infuriating. I know it really means very little in the grand scheme of things as far as W/L, but I’m just absolutely puzzled what they see in him.

The “one of the best PKers” in the organization thing is mind boggling when you already have four extremely solid guys in Coleman, Zajac, Zacha, and Boyle as well as Hischier, Dea, Palmieri, and Noesen being more than capable of filling in.

When we’re fully healthy he thankfully shouldn’t be anywhere near the roster, but I’m worried they are going to consider him as a fourth liner next year when he’s on a one-way deal.

 

[Devils Dominion]

This lovefest with Rooney is going to be infuriating. I know it really means very little in the grand scheme of things as far as W/L, but I’m just absolutely puzzled what they see in him.

The “one of the best PKers” in the organization thing is mind boggling when you already have four extremely solid guys in Coleman, Zajac, Zacha, and Boyle as well as Hischier, Dea, Palmieri, and Noesen being more than capable of filling in.

When we’re fully healthy he thankfully shouldn’t be anywhere near the roster, but I’m worried they are going to consider him as a fourth liner next year when he’s on a one-way deal.

Rooney is awful, he's not a NHL player.

 

[MartyOwns]

I'm curious of what people think...

If Nylander were a UFA right now, what would people here pay for him? Would he be worth the 8M he's asking for? I mean, I'm sure he'd get at least that cause there's always some GMs that would pay/over pay, although I read somewhere that they polled some GMs around the league, and he majority would be reluctant to pay him that much.

Even if he would be theoretically worth, say, 10M on the UFA market, would it be worth it to pay him 8M *AND* give up significant assets?

will he be worth $8M? absolutely. in 4 years that’ll be considered a steal

 

[My3Sons]

I'm curious of what people think...

If Nylander were a UFA right now, what would people here pay for him? Would he be worth the 8M he's asking for? I mean, I'm sure he'd get at least that cause there's always some GMs that would pay/over pay, although I read somewhere that they polled some GMs around the league, and he majority would be reluctant to pay him that much.

Even if he would be theoretically worth, say, 10M on the UFA market, would it be worth it to pay him 8M *AND* give up significant assets?

I’d be hard pressed to pay a 60 point winger a minimum of $8 mil per long term even at his age and with some additional potential for improvement. If you see him as a max 70 point winger going forward who provides two way play and leadership etc. then maybe something in the $7 mil range is livable.

I’m skeptical he’s a true core player as opposed to a good complimentary player. At least so far. Right now $8 mil plus is top player territory. Maybe some GM who is on the hot seat and doesn’t care about anything beyond making the playoffs this season would cave in and pay him.

 

[RangerDoggo]

FWIW, Ryan Lambert has us at 5th: NHL Power Rankings: Penguins back to their dangerous selves

This is the last week he’s doing the rankings based on records, and he implied in his weekly column yesterday that he thinks the Devils will do poorly on their road trip. He’s completely devoid of reasons why, which is par for the course for a hack like Ryan Lambert. For a self-styled stat guy, he sure likes to cherry pick the numbers to fit his narrative, so he’ll likely ignore that Charting Hockey guy.

Side note: I’m pissed off that Lambert renamed the weekly column “31 Takes.“ He doesn’t deserve to live in the same hemisphere as Elliot Friedman, let alone be in a position to try and cop off of him.

Severson been our best defenseman this year.

Don't @ me

I still think it’s Vatanen, but so far it looks like it’s gotten into Severson’s head that this is his last chance to show something, and he’s seized it.

 

[Bleedred]

(bleed will say any goals weak so cant go by that),

I’m getting very tired of you using false narratives to call me out. This is the second time you’ve done it in three days.

I’m fair game when using facts, but you are certainly using false or hyperbolic facts sir.

By the way, of the 17 goals Kinkaid has allowed this year, I only have him counted down for 5 stoppable ones. 3 of them came in the game against Nashville and I know you even agreed the game winner against Colorado was kind of stoppable, as I believe you called it stoppable before I even did. The Konecny goal against the Flyers, which was the first goal of that game was certainly a stoppable one. If I have to hear about a screen on that goal then maybe your eyes are what’s really screened.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

I'm curious of what people think...

If Nylander were a UFA right now, what would people here pay for him? Would he be worth the 8M he's asking for? I mean, I'm sure he'd get at least that cause there's always some GMs that would pay/over pay, although I read somewhere that they polled some GMs around the league, and he majority would be reluctant to pay him that much.

Even if he would be theoretically worth, say, 10M on the UFA market, would it be worth it to pay him 8M *AND* give up significant assets?

There is no ****ing way a team pays $10M for Nylander, hypothetically, as a UFA today.

From a Devils' perspective, given our roster make-up, giving a 22-year-old, 60-point winger a fat extension with $8M AAV is an extremely dangerous precedent to set.

Nico scored 52 points last year as an 18-year-old, and is pacing PPG this year as a 19-year-old. What kind of contract does he get, then, when his entry-level deal expires?

How do those hypothetical deals proportionately affect Hall's extension?

It's fun to dream about acquiring players and paying them what they want in order to retain them, but the numbers you're tossing around are just plain silly.

 

[My3Sons]

I’m getting very tired of you using false narratives to call me out. This is the second time you’ve done it in three days.

I’m fair game when using facts, but you are certainly using false or hyperbolic facts sir.

By the way, of the 17 goals Kinkaid has allowed this year, I only have him counted down for 5 stoppable ones. 3 of them came in the game against Nashville and I know you even agreed the game winner against Colorado was kind of stoppable, as I believe you called it stoppable before I even did. The Konecny goal against the Flyers, which was the first goal of that game was certainly a stoppable one. If I have to hear about a screen on that goal then maybe your eyes are what’s really screened.

My takeaway from your recaps (which I’m amazed you can spare the time for them) is that all goalies give up some arguably stoppable goals and like most analysis of sports it becomes more about how the individual is doing relative to his peers. I’m sure some people can differ with some of your specific determinations but I think it is an interesting tool and there is probably a new advanced stat in there if you can standardize how you determine what is stoppable. If nothing else it provides perspective on this issue which I know I didn’t have in the past except anecdotally.

 

[My3Sons]

There is no ****ing way a team pays $10M for Nylander, hypothetically, as a UFA today.

From a Devils' perspective, given our roster make-up, giving a 22-year-old, 60-point winger a fat extension with $8M AAV is an extremely dangerous precedent to set.

Nico scored 52 points last year as an 18-year-old, and is pacing PPG this year as a 19-year-old. What kind of contract does he get, then, when his entry-level deal expires?

How do those hypothetical deals proportionately affect Hall's extension?

It's fun to dream about acquiring players and paying them what they want in order to retain them, but the numbers you're tossing around are just plain silly.

I agree with your view. Name a team in the NHL that wouldn’t worry about giving a 22 year old 60 point winger something north of $8 per and the spillover effect that would have on their other deals.

I think there may be a bit of a false economy as well. I don’t think Nylander is suggesting that his past performance warrants $8 mil or more so much as his projection of his own future improved performance. While it is possible he improves by more than 20% across the board, what if he settles in with only 10-12% improvement? Are there enough intangibles to his game that you could see him being worth that sort of money absent the cap increase to make an $8 mil deal today the equivalent of a $6 mil deal tomorrow.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

From Corey Masisak "Where the Devils’ top line fits among the NHL’s elite" article:

"New Jersey’s trio falls in the middle of this pack when it comes to shot attempts, ranks fourth in scoring chances and tops in high-danger chances. The line represents Hynes’ brand of hockey well. As individual players, they are third (Hischier), fifth (Hall) and 15th (Palmieri) in HDCF% in the NHL among forwards with at least 50 minutes of even-strength ice time (Jean-Seabastien Dea, Miles Wood and Brian Boyle are in the top 20, as well)."

*TOI = time on ice; CF% = Corsi for percentage (shot attempts); SCF% = scoring chances for percentage; HDCF% = high-danger chances for percentage; GF% = goals for percentage; OISH% = on-ice shooting percentage; OISV% = on-ice save percentage


'They are a driving engine for our team': Where the Devils'... (paywall)