Devils 2016-17 team discussion (player news and notes) - Part VIII

[NjDevsRR]

Don't be surprised if we go on a bit of a run. We have a favorable schedule for the next month.

If so the attendance will stay where its at and the franchise will definitely get what they wanted with a road heavy schedule in the first half. Right now we are at 90.4% attendance which places us 23rd in the league.

Edit: Holy crap, Carolina averaging 61.9%

 

[billingtons ghost]

As if I needed more proof of those wonderful advanced stats. Anyone who watches hockey and doesn't think that Wood has been one of our better forwards since he's been up simply has no clue. Yeah he's raw and is nowhere near his ceiling yet, but his heart and passion alone are a reason to keep him up, to say nothing of the opportunities he creates with his speed and hustle.

^This.

I can't believe it is even a discussion. I don't give a crap what his advanced stats say -

I care that he missed an assignment or two...

but outside of that he has been our only consistently dangerous forward for the past three weeks or so.

I can't believe people would even care about advanced stats when the eye test is so convincing.

 

[None Shall Pass]

^This.

I can't believe it is even a discussion. I don't give a crap what his advanced stats say -

I care that he missed an assignment or two...

but outside of that he has been our only consistently dangerous forward for the past three weeks or so.

I can't believe people would even care about advanced stats when the eye test is so convincing.

The bolded is where the "advanced stats" argument goes off the rails online.

Yes, the eye test tells you a lot. Miles Wood's game is something that "advanced stats" can't quantify.

However, the eye test also supports his advanced stats. Watch him play. His possession is, quite literally, crap. We know this because he doesn't have great hands and his shot sucks too. You don't need a stat to tell you that.

The eye test tells me that he's a fast player who sets his plays up off the rush and doesn't do much to actually control the puck. Watch him when he's actually in the offensive zone and has time to theoretically do that. He doesn't.

He's a fun player to watch. He's slowly getting better. He'll get even better with time. But right now, he's got crap for a shot and crap for hands. The eye test and the stats say so.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

It's interesting how certain board members will take any opportunity they can to just crap on statistics as a whole based on isolated instances that they don't even fully comprehend. We get it - you hate stats.

Miles Wood is definitely an exciting player to watch. And he's created a lot with his speed. However, he is getting absolutely cratered in shot differential. To just write that off as it doesn't matter is asinine, because eventually those shots against will turn into goals against.

I'm not a proponent of sending him down right now. But if, in 10-15 games, he still hasn't improved his possession figures, it would be time to think about swapping him and Quenneville.

 

[billingtons ghost]

The bolded is where the "advanced stats" argument goes off the rails online.

Yes, the eye test tells you a lot. Miles Wood's game is something that "advanced stats" can't quantify.

However, the eye test also supports his advanced stats. Watch him play. His possession is, quite literally, crap. We know this because he doesn't have great hands and his shot sucks too. You don't need a stat to tell you that.

The eye test tells me that he's a fast player who sets his plays up off the rush and doesn't do much to actually control the puck. Watch him when he's actually in the offensive zone and has time to theoretically do that. He doesn't.

He's a fun player to watch. He's slowly getting better. He'll get even better with time. But right now, he's got crap for a shot and crap for hands. The eye test and the stats say so.

Right -

It's my assertion that advanced stats are an incredibly weak tool in describing the game of hockey. They may be the only tool we have, but it's akin to astronomers holding binoculars and telling us there is a man in the moon.

There may be some stats like SV% and Corsi that can tell you how a particular player does in one facet of the game - but people saying a player is 'good' or 'bad' by such metrics is like telling me whether a basketball player is good by his max vertical leaping ability.

Wood will forever be behind 2010-era Danius Zubrus in possession metrics - because he takes the puck, gets it behind the defense and then either scores or loses it... as opposed to controlling it in the offensive zone.

 

[billingtons ghost]

It's interesting how certain board members will take any opportunity they can to just crap on statistics as a whole based on isolated instances that they don't even fully comprehend. We get it - you hate stats.

Miles Wood is definitely an exciting player to watch. And he's created a lot with his speed. However, he is getting absolutely cratered in shot differential. To just write that off as it doesn't matter is asinine, because eventually those shots against will turn into goals against.

I'm not a proponent of sending him down right now. But if, in 10-15 games, he still hasn't improved his possession figures, it would be time to think about swapping him and Quenneville.

To attribute shot differential to one player's performance is equally asinine. It is a complicated metric that depends a whole lot upon who is on the ice along with Miles Wood, and may or may not have anything to do with his performance.

Severson almost has the worst plus/minus in the whole league. That is a metric of true on-ice goals against versus goals for. To take your argument for shot-differential anywhere, is to be one whole derivation AWAY from the accuracy of plus-minus. (you are saying that shots translate into goals, which may or may not be true since we don't have a qualifier of how dangerous the shot is). Goals for/against is just that... goals for/against.

So, I'm assuming by your argument, that it follows that Severson is the worst defenseman in the league?

 

[AfroThunder396]

Right -

It's my assertion that advanced stats are an incredibly weak tool in describing the game of hockey. They may be the only tool we have, but it's akin to astronomers holding binoculars and telling us there is a man in the moon.

There may be some stats like SV% and Corsi that can tell you how a particular player does in one facet of the game - but people saying a player is 'good' or 'bad' by such metrics is like telling me whether a basketball player is good by his max vertical leaping ability.

Wood will forever be behind 2010-era Danius Zubrus in possession metrics - because he takes the puck, gets it behind the defense and then either scores or loses it... as opposed to controlling it in the offensive zone.

Possession metrics are great descriptions. But they are not explanations. It's important to know the difference.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Eye test also shows Wood has clear holes in his game still.

I agree we should keep him up for a bit longer because he does seem to bring some intangibles, but you are blind if you don't see his flaws that are backed up by stats.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Eye test also shows Wood has clear holes in his game still.

I agree we should keep him up for a bit longer because he does seem to bring some intangibles, but you are blind if you don't see his flaws that are backed up by stats.

Nowhere did I say that he doesn't have flaws.
Nowhere did I say those flaws couldn't be represented in stats.

You, however, are blind if you think that these stats might potentially be a reason to 'send him down'.

There are lots of players (Severson among them) who would quickly be relegated, if advanced stats is your only metric.

I'm not crapping on advance stats as folks are saying.

I'm crapping on people's over-devotion to them - as if everyone should kneel to their dogma.

 

[217 Forever]

Eye test also shows Wood has clear holes in his game still.

I agree we should keep him up for a bit longer because he does seem to bring some intangibles, but you are blind if you don't see his flaws that are backed up by stats.

Nobody is saying he doesn't have holes or that he is a complete player at this juncture. What I know I'm saying is that A)While we were in complete freefall he seemed to playing like one of the few guys who actually gave a *&%$, and B) He has attributes that other players on our team don't seem to have.

I mean, if his flaws could get him sent down then anybody could be right? Why is Bennett on this team? Josefson? They might do some things well but on the other hand they can't score for you know what but they are still around.

Wood is giving more effort than just about anybody out there, and he's chipping in here and there with offense. I don't think rewarding that with a trip to Albany is proper, especially when our season is basically lost at this point. Maybe when their playoffs approach.

 

[AfroThunder396]

You're missing the point.

You don't send him down because he has bad possession numbers.

you send him down because he has clear and obvious deficiencies in his game WHICH ARE REFLECTED IN his bad possession numbers.

Anyone looking at a possession chart and making roster decisions based on that is an idiot. But it's easy to get caught up in a fast and exciting guy that kills everything he sees. We have to keep perspective because that excitement masks some giant inadequacies.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Literally the entire team has major deficiencies in their game.

 

[billingtons ghost]

You're missing the point.

You don't send him down because he has bad possession numbers.

you send him down because he has clear and obvious deficiencies in his game WHICH ARE REFLECTED IN his bad possession numbers.

Anyone looking at a possession chart and making roster decisions based on that is an idiot. But it's easy to get caught up in a fast and exciting guy that kills everything he sees. We have to keep perspective because that excitement masks some giant inadequacies.

I completely agree with this - except for the bolded part...

if only because - I find it hard to believe that his puck control and shot is going to improve in the AHL.

The only way he is going to adjust to the speed with which NHL players 'get on you' when in the corners is to play in the NHL.

Yeah, maybe he goes down and gets alot more time to get his shot off and that gives him confidence... and then he gets called up and that time goes away.

A summer spent with skills coaches and running drills with other NHL players 'may' lead to improvement - but I'm sure we'll always be wanting a JJ-Boosh-Wood composite rather than any of those players.

Since when is our roster littered with 'complete' players - or roster decisions need to be based upon that?

See Chorske, Tom - or Friessen, Jeff.

PS I mean, cripes. Couldn't someone have stapled Boucher to Vlad Bure for the summer so the guy could learn to skate? Zajac's improvement this year was remarkable.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Literally the entire team has major deficiencies in their game.

Doesn't mean one of our younger ones can't benefit from AHL time to improve those deficiencies.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Doesn't mean one of our younger ones can't benefit from AHL time to improve those deficiencies.

Oh I agree and would have no problem sending him back down. Then I can catch him live when Albany plays Lehigh Valley

I just thought it needed to be pointed out.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

It's not necessarily better for a guy to develop in the AHL. I feel like Wood will have to work on the little things even less down there. His speed will make up for his mistakes more than it does here. Sure, it would be nice for him to get more minutes and be used in a top 6 role down there...But I think he'll develop fine here. He isn't blocking anyone either really. Don't tell me that Jacob ****ing Josefson would do a better job. I don't give a rats ass about his possession numbers, he blows.

 

[Zippy316]

Helgeson is scratched tonight for Albany. Per the Albany Devils beat writer:







Coincidence? I think not.

 

[Darkauron]

Helgeson is scratched tonight for Albany. Per the Albany Devils beat writer:

Andy must be out for a few games at least then.

 

[Devils1029]

The thing people are missing is that Wood gives us something we're not bringing on a consistent basis...Wood and Hal are the only two guys flying out there and attacking the offensive zone with speed. That speed does make things happen...I'll take some defensive lapses from Wood mohave the speed threat over yet another plugger or guy who skates sideways or backwards in the neutral zone.

to me, Lappin has done squat of the past 15 -18 games - send him down and bring up Blandisi - another guy with speed....

 

[Cheddabombs]

the worst part about that is Greene's injury may be worse than I thought

Also, there's no way in my mind you send Wood down. Not only has he proven he belongs in the NHL to me, just through his tenacity and work ethic that most of our team has lacked all year, but I think it's better for his development personally. His biggest thing, in my unprofessional opinion, is learning how to slow down the game around him. In the offensive and defensive zone. I'd rather he learns the speed of the NHL game, what he can and can't get away with, then in the AHL. I think the AHL is good for those not quite physically cut out for the NHL game just yet, or those with major deficiencies in their game that need to be ironed out.

 

[MadDevil]

Need that muscle for the big bad Leafs.

 

[Zippy316]

The thing people are missing is that Wood gives us something we're not bringing on a consistent basis...Wood and Hal are the only two guys flying out there and attacking the offensive zone with speed. That speed does make things happen...I'll take some defensive lapses from Wood mohave the speed threat over yet another plugger or guy who skates sideways or backwards in the neutral zone.

to me, Lappin has done squat of the past 15 -18 games - send him down and bring up Blandisi - another guy with speed....

I'd like to see Coleman in place of Lappin for a brief time. Coleman seems to be playing well lately.

We could roll with a Kalinin - Coleman - DSP/Bennett fourth line for a bit.

 

[NJDevs26]

I don't understand why Helgeson is the first callup over Mozik or Auvitu, although he will fit better in the low-event system they've gone back to lately.

 

[The Wumpus]

Helgeson is scratched tonight for Albany. Per the Albany Devils beat writer:

Unleash the Seth!

 

[Emperoreddy]

Man I hope this doesn't mean the end of Andy's iron man run.