Devils 2016-17 team discussion (player news and notes) - Part VIII

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Edmonton East

BUT the ADvaNCEd STatS...
Nov 25, 2007
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People who blacklist +/- all together might as well find a nice cave to live in.

This mantra that +/- is a useless statistic is moronic, and it is a sentiment that has gained traction over the last few years specifically (as "advanced" stats became more popular).

+/- in a vacuum is worthless. +/- relative to team, ES scoring, opposition, and common linemates is not.
 

Triumph

Registered User
Oct 2, 2007
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There isn't a problem though, +/- is a joke. Severson has been on for fewer goals/60 at ES than any Devils defenseman. Other than that, you're just being fooled by randomness.
 

Triumph

Registered User
Oct 2, 2007
13,587
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People who blacklist +/- all together might as well find a nice cave to live in.

This mantra that +/- is a useless statistic is moronic, and it is a sentiment that has gained traction over the last few years specifically (as "advanced" stats became more popular).

+/- in a vacuum is worthless. +/- relative to team, ES scoring, opposition, and common linemates is not.

No, it absolutely still is worthless except over very large samples and even then it's dicey. Here's why - it incorporates all sorts of stuff that isn't at ES. Empty net goals, short handed goals - sure, let's go ahead and count those!

The *real* 5v5 +/- numbers are as follows:

Auvitu: +4
Quincey: -3
Merrill: -6
Lovejoy: -6
Greene: -10
Moore: -11
Severson: -15

He's still last but not by a ton and he's last because the goalie isn't stopping the puck when he's on the ice.
 

Edmonton East

BUT the ADvaNCEd STatS...
Nov 25, 2007
6,492
2,450
And Severson is last regardless and significantly worse than his most common linemate. Christ. Watch a game. I shouldn't have to argue he has been poor defensively and picking up guys off the rush.

You can poke a hole in every single statistic one way or another. That doesn't mean said statistic is completely useless.

This statement is common sense: +/- in a vacuum is worthless. +/- relative to team, ES scoring, opposition, and common linemates is not.

Triumph, aren't you the one who was spouting advanced statistics trying to defend Josefson that I disproved pretty easily during the offseason? Might have been someone else.
 
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Devils Dominion

Now we Plummet
Feb 16, 2007
48,509
3,716
NJ
Why do I keep seeing Bouch in a Red Wings jersey in my head?

I could also see NYb putting in a claim for him since Snow likes are castaways.
 

NJDevs26

Once upon a time...
Mar 21, 2007
67,573
32,055
I really don't think Frenchy's issue is the continent he is playing on. It's that he is a small defender who get's out muscled quite often.

And Merrill's skill set is not unlike many d-men in the league. It's more a matter of putting it all together. And playing consistent. And staying healthy.

Plus let's be honest, there's a reason he was over there till he was 28. He was overhyped when we signed him and overrated by this board now.
 

Triumph

Registered User
Oct 2, 2007
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Moronic thinking. And Severson is last regardless and significantly worse than his most common linemate. Christ. Watch a game. I shouldn't have to argue he has been poor defensively and picking up guys off the rush.

You can poke a hole in every single statistic one way or another. That doesn't mean said statistic is completely useless.

This statement is common sense: +/- in a vacuum is worthless. +/- relative to team, ES scoring, opposition, and common linemates is not.

Triumph, aren't you the one who was spouting advanced statistics trying to defend Josefson that I disproved pretty easily during the offseason? Might have been someone else.

Last post on this, but I do enjoy yelling at clouds..

Severson away from Greene is at a 30% GF rate over 200 minutes. Now does it make any sense to you that Damon Severson would suddenly turn into the worst player in the NHL away from Greene? That he would have a GF rate worse than any defenseman who played 1000 minutes between 2007 and 2016? No, it doesn't make any sense. It makes sense if you are fooled into thinking that goals are the only events that can tell us anything about how good a player is playing.

So sure, Severson's missed a check or a man's gotten by him - hockey's a game of mistakes, but regardless Damon has been making a few too many. That player who benefits from Severson's mistakes still has to score, and he has been. Meanwhile, Severson's on-ice goals-for away from Greene is once again worse than any defenseman who's played 1000 minutes over the last 9 years.

The long and short of it is that the Devils are scoring less goals with Severson on the ice than any other defenseman, even though I think we can all agree he is probably the Devils' best offensive defenseman. It just goes to show that there are 5 other guys out there and they also have to do their jobs - Severson can only do so much. He's not going to score many goals himself.
 

Triumph

Registered User
Oct 2, 2007
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Plus let's be honest, there's a reason he was over there till he was 28. He was overhyped when we signed him and overrated by this board now.

Auvitu was playing in a lower league as recently as 2013-14. I don't think it's right to judge players who've been on skates their entire lives and who've attended countless hockey camps to guys like Auvitu who barely grew up with the game. He's done a lot of his learning as a professional and he still has a lot to learn.
 

NJDevs26

Once upon a time...
Mar 21, 2007
67,573
32,055
Last post on this, but I do enjoy yelling at clouds..

Severson away from Greene is at a 30% GF rate over 200 minutes. Now does it make any sense to you that Damon Severson would suddenly turn into the worst player in the NHL away from Greene? That he would have a GF rate worse than any defenseman who played 1000 minutes between 2007 and 2016? No, it doesn't make any sense. It makes sense if you are fooled into thinking that goals are the only events that can tell us anything about how good a player is playing.

Goals allowed are also a general indicator of high quality scoring chances given up, unless you think Cory magically gives up all his soft goals with Damon on the ice.
 

Triumph

Registered User
Oct 2, 2007
13,587
14,008
Goals allowed are also a general indicator of high quality scoring chances given up, unless you think Cory magically gives up all his soft goals with Damon on the ice.

Okay, so we can do this then, scoring chances according to corsica on ice:

Greene: +2
Severson: -8
Merrill: -9
Auvitu: -10
Moore: -12
Quincey: -17
Lovejoy: -18

It doesn't have to be all. It just has to be 'more than when other people are on the ice'. And yes, this happens all over the league every year - some players are luckier than others about when goals are scored.
 

I Hate Tie DOMI

Registered User
Jul 2, 2002
4,044
1,033
Ontario
Was Vancouver behind us in the standings the day we claimed him back? Or did they do this for the first time today and that other team is still out there? Asking for when they inevitably waive him and we claim him again in a few weeks.
 

Edmonton East

BUT the ADvaNCEd STatS...
Nov 25, 2007
6,492
2,450
Last post on this, but I do enjoy yelling at clouds..

Severson away from Greene is at a 30% GF rate over 200 minutes. Now does it make any sense to you that Damon Severson would suddenly turn into the worst player in the NHL away from Greene? That he would have a GF rate worse than any defenseman who played 1000 minutes between 2007 and 2016? No, it doesn't make any sense. It makes sense if you are fooled into thinking that goals are the only events that can tell us anything about how good a player is playing.

So sure, Severson's missed a check or a man's gotten by him - hockey's a game of mistakes, but regardless Damon has been making a few too many. That player who benefits from Severson's mistakes still has to score, and he has been. Meanwhile, Severson's on-ice goals-for away from Greene is once again worse than any defenseman who's played 1000 minutes over the last 9 years.

The long and short of it is that the Devils are scoring less goals with Severson on the ice than any other defenseman, even though I think we can all agree he is probably the Devils' best offensive defenseman. It just goes to show that there are 5 other guys out there and they also have to do their jobs - Severson can only do so much. He's not going to score many goals himself.

Please stop trying to analyze statistics. Every time you seem to do it wrong, either by misinterpreting or omitting relevant data. What was that stat you were going on about that showed how great Josefson was defensively way back when? When in the same thread you ripped several other players who had actually outperformed Josefson in said stat over the preceding 3 years....

Your arguments don't make sense. Heck even just above when you said SHGs need to be factored out doesn't make any sense. Severson plays point on the PP, why in the world should SHG not impact his +/-? You're gonna try to argue because X player wouldn't have the same "opportunity" to receive a -. Well, then maybe he shouldn't be on the damn ice for goals against in a favorable position.
 

AfroThunder396

[citation needed]
Jan 8, 2006
39,146
23,277
Miami, FL
Why didn't we claim Rattie?

We don't have room, same reason we'e been trying to send Boucher to Albany for weeks. We would have to get rid of someone, and at that point why not just keep Boucher.

Obviously, Gazdic takes up a roster spot and should be sent down, but that's another issue.
 

Triumph

Registered User
Oct 2, 2007
13,587
14,008
Please stop trying to analyze statistics. Every time you seem to do it wrong, either by misinterpreting or omitting relevant data. What was that stat you were going on about that showed how great Josefson was defensively way back when? When in the same thread you ripped several other players who had actually outperformed Josefson in said stat over the preceding 3 years....

Your arguments don't make sense. Heck even just above when you said SHGs need to be factored out doesn't make any sense. Severson plays point on the PP, why in the world should SHG not impact his +/-? You're gonna try to argue because X player wouldn't have the same "opportunity" to receive a -. Well, then maybe he shouldn't be on the damn ice for goals against in a favorable position.

Not going to talk about any of your points here, because I said I was done. All I will say is that you are trying to tell me I was wrong about a previous argument you A: can't really remember and B: are not even totally sure I was involved and C: are too lazy to look up or can't figure out how to. You probably shouldn't be telling people what they should and shouldn't do if you can't even remember whether a person was involved or what it was about.
 
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