Obviously, time will tell if the contract pans out, if the second half was a flash in the pan or the real Dubnyk.
But for what he played behind in Edmonton, the Wild analyzed that his numbers were way better than they should be and they’re confident that as long as the Wild continues to play with the defensive structure we saw at the beginning of last season and in the second half, that Dubnyk will fit perfectly right into that.
Also, remember, if the Wild didn’t sign Dubnyk, it would have had to trade for a goalie. The goalies that were traded this weekend all cost a significant number of draft picks, and then the Wild, if those goalies panned out, would have eventually had to sign them to a contract similar to this one.
This the market for No. 1 goalies in today’s NHL.
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This structure is right in line with many goalie contracts in the league. By going longer-term, the Wild gets a more manageable cap number. Go short-term, and the cap number would have been a ton higher and when you see the depth chart below for at least this upcoming season, you’d see that it would be impossible for the Wild to afford much higher. The deal includes a limited no-trade clause during certain windows.
This is not a Niklas Backstrom deal, as I’ve seen some people comment. Backstrom’s last three-year deal from Chuck Fletcher was given to a goalie that was up there in age and constantly going under the knife, as recent as less than a few months after being re-signed to the three-year deal. At the time of the deal, I think we all saw where that would likely end (awfully).
Honestly, I’d love to go back and try to figure out how many surgeries Backstrom has had in Minnesota. It’s got to be seven or eight. His entire insides has to be made up of scar tissue.
Dubnyk is 29, entering his prime and has shown throughout his career (so far) that he’s durable. He hasn’t suffered any big injuries and he showed his agility by starting 38 consecutive games for the Wild, which is nothing to sneeze at physically and especially mentally when you consider that ANY losing streak along the way last season would have caused the Wild to fall on its face and miss the playoffs.
Yet, he strived impressively through that pressure and stress. His entire demeanor is one of a cool, calm, collected goalie who doesn’t get all uptight, proven by the fact that he’ll sit there and yuck it up with teammates, staff, coaches and media on game days.
He went almost three months without losing consecutive regulation games, was 15-2-1 on the road and was a rock star in the second of back-to-back games despite the team in front of him being severely outplayed in basically every one of those second of back-to-backs.
Did he give up some bad goals in the second round of the playoffs? Absolutely. At least one in three games by my count and you do have to wonder if the Wild wins Game 1 if he doesn’t give up the high half-wall flutterer Teuvo Teravainen goal in the last minute of the second period after the Wild rallied from down 3-0.
But the Wild lost that series because it’s big guns again couldn’t score, because it never scored the first goal, because it never had the lead. And the one thing I do like about Dubnyk is he doesn’t unravel. One bad goal doesn’t turn into three like Darcy Kuemper showed a bunch last season.
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Fletcher said, "If you look at the top-20 goalies in terms of salary, I don’t know if any of them have less than five years. It’s a market contract. The salary will put him somewhere between the top-23 and 24 goalies in the league (top-20, according to capfriendly.com). I don’t think that’s an unreasonable number for what he’s done. It’s a fair contract. The cap number will work very well for us and the term is what he was hoping to get. That’s the compromises you make."
