except in wins this year Mrazek has a .945 sv%.
A)
In wins this year Mrazek has a 1.71 GAA and a .945 sv%
In wins last year Mrazek had a 1.90 GAA and a .935 sv%
In order for Mrazek's current wins stats to mirror last years fairly closely, he'd have had to give up barely more than one single goal spread across 4 wins, something that would have at most shifted one game from a win to a loss if it came in his last game. In the other games it would have not impacted 2 and sent a third to OT.
B)
In losses this year Mrazek has a 4.06 GAA and a .889sv%
In losses last year Mrazek had a 2.86 GAA and a .903sv%
So, even if your case regarding a mellowing of his play in wins was accurate it would at least be offset by a similar mellowing of his play in losses.
For us to win he's had to play well above his career average.
A) You are not using context correctly.
B) Look at the stats of all goalies. Everybody has better stats in wins than they do in losses, by substantial amounts. Your argument is equally applicable to all occurrences, so it makes it meaningless used in a specific case.
Can we keep winning with a very good Mrazek rather than a Vezina Mrazek? Right now, I don't think any of us can know or reliably guess.
Depends. Are you willing to look at what he's done his whole NHL career? If you are, you can. If you're not then no, you'll have no idea what might come next.
And,yeah, there's that question of Howard being reliable all season, too.
Exactly. That's the only substantial point in your argument, really. If Howard returns to his typical form the Wings will experience an overall loss in competence at the position relative to where they are right now. The question is how deleterious that loss would be, coming as it is A) from a backup goalie) and B) from a team that may not exactly need dominance to win games anyway.