Prospect Info: Detroit Red Wings 2021 Summer Prospect #4

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

For fun - what % chance are people putting on Cossa to reach "all star franchise goalie"?

10% all star franchise goalie
40% quality starting goalie or tandem 1a goalie
25% quality backup or tandem 1b goalie
25% minor league-NHL tweener bust
100% a goalie

 

[RabidBadger]

This round turned out to be interesting from the perspective Cossa got 10 votes last round and Bergy got 32.

 

[Pavels Dog]

10% all star franchise goalie
40% quality starting goalie or tandem 1a goalie
25% quality backup or tandem 1b goalie
25% minor league-NHL tweener bust
100% a goalie

Yeah pretty much how I see it too, maybe a little lower chance for a 1A goalie.

 

[HisNoodliness]

This poll isn't about who is more likely to play 1 NHL game

It's about who has the higher ceiling, potential to get there and the value of that ceiling.

Cossa's projection/ceiling is that of a #1 starting NHL goalie/all star franchise goalie

Berggren would HAVE to project to be a first line star forward/all star franchise forward to be the same tier.

I guess more people so far believe either:
a) Cossa has a better chance to reach that ceiling
b) Cossa's projection as a #1 goalie is infinitely more valuable than Berggrens projection as a middle six forward

I for one hope both players reach their ceiling...

I think everyone uses whatever criteria they want. Personally I'm essentially applying an expected value equation where value is determined by "how much would I have to trade for them/pay them as a UFA to acquire this player). Obviously I'm not actually crunching numbers but it's just

Expected value = Sum( P(x) * x) for all x where x is their value in each career state and P(x) is the probability of occupying that state.

So to breakdown why I chose Berggren over Cossa, my evaluation of a goalie's value is very low unless they're an all star and I don't view that as particularly likely. I'll give an approximate breakdown, but it's more for a relative comparison than an absolute one. It's very hard to say what the odds of either becoming an all star or the value of an all star exactly-I'm sure that I'm a little optimistic in general but you get the idea

Cossa:
All star: P ~ 5% x ~ 120
Consistent 55+ game starter: P ~ 10%, x ~50
Tandem goalie: P ~35%, x~ 10
Backup: P~ 30%, x~1
Bust: P~ 20%, x~ 0
Which would give an expected value of 14.8 arbitrary value points

Whereas for Berggren I break it down like
All star: P~5%, x ~ 80
1W: P~ 20%, x~ 50
2W: P~35%, x~20
3W: P~30%, x~5
4W/Bust: P~ 10%, x~0
Which would then come to 22.5 arbitrary value points.

Honestly while I view Veleno and Johansson as way less likely to be all stars or even 1st liners than Berggren, I think they'd have about 15-20 value points for me so I'm taking them above Cossa too.

 

[jaster]

This round turned out to be interesting from the perspective Cossa got 10 votes last round and Bergy got 32.

I kinda expected that. There are a lot of rabid Berggren fans. They were voting hard for him early on in these polls and were the first voters to depart from Edvinsson at #3. But most people who voted Edvinsson are the reasonable fans who naturally moved on to Cossa for #4, while all the Berggren voters obviously stayed with Berggren. Frank Luntz and Nate Silver actually predicted this.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Berggren has ranked ahead of Cossa in pretty much every ranking post draft. Hockeywriters, Athletic, Reddit's poll.

But Berggren fans are "rabid" and unreasonable.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I think everyone uses whatever criteria they want. Personally I'm essentially applying an expected value equation where value is determined by "how much would I have to trade for them/pay them as a UFA to acquire this player). Obviously I'm not actually crunching numbers but it's just

Expected value = Sum( P(x) * x) for all x where x is their value in each career state and P(x) is the probability of occupying that state.

So to breakdown why I chose Berggren over Cossa, my evaluation of a goalie's value is very low unless they're an all star and I don't view that as particularly likely. I'll give an approximate breakdown, but it's more for a relative comparison than an absolute one. It's very hard to say what the odds of either becoming an all star or the value of an all star exactly-I'm sure that I'm a little optimistic in general but you get the idea

Cossa:
All star: P ~ 5% x ~ 120
Consistent 55+ game starter: P ~ 10%, x ~50
Tandem goalie: P ~35%, x~ 10
Backup: P~ 30%, x~1
Bust: P~ 20%, x~ 0
Which would give an expected value of 14.8 arbitrary value points

Whereas for Berggren I break it down like
All star: P~5%, x ~ 80
1W: P~ 20%, x~ 50
2W: P~35%, x~20
3W: P~30%, x~5
4W/Bust: P~ 10%, x~0
Which would then come to 22.5 arbitrary value points.

Honestly while I view Veleno and Johansson as way less likely to be all stars or even 1st liners than Berggren, I think they'd have about 15-20 value points for me so I'm taking them above Cossa too.

You're free to do as you please.

Let's just agree that we hope both boys become stars for the DRW one day

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Berggren has ranked ahead of Cossa in pretty much every ranking post draft. Hockeywriters, Athletic, Reddit's poll.

But Berggren fans are "rabid" and unreasonable.

shiny new toy

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

shiny new toy

So next year if we draft Shane Wright and he is voted as our top prospect.. is that shinny new toy syndrome?

I mean it would have to be if you truly believe in shinny new toy syndrome.. right?

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Berggren has ranked ahead of Cossa in pretty much every ranking post draft. Hockeywriters, Athletic, Reddit's poll.

But Berggren fans are "rabid" and unreasonable.

Hockey writers had Valeno ranked ahead of Bergreen as recently as June 2021.

Do you believe that was right or wrong? And which ranking are you sticking to?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Hockey writers had Valeno ranked ahead of Bergreen as recently as June 2021.

Do you believe that was right or wrong? And which ranking are you sticking to?

Not very relevant when looking at Berggren v. Cossa, I just brought up several recent rankings that indicate it's not an outlier opinion to hold Berggren in higher regard.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Not very relevant when looking at Berggren v. Cossa, I just brought up several recent rankings that indicate it's not an outlier opinion to hold Berggren in higher regard.

Sure it is.

You brought up an opinion article as an authority to help sell your opinion.

I merely pointed out that just 30 days earlier, that same opinion writer believed Valeno was the better prospect than Berggren but had since changed his opinion as new factors or evidence had come too light.

Funny how that happens.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions but we shouldnt use some other guys opinions as evidence to support why ours are more right or accurate.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Sure it is.

You brought up an opinion article as an authority to help sell your opinion.

I merely pointed out that just 30 days earlier, that same opinion writer believed Valeno was the better prospect than Berggren but had since changed his opinion as new factors or evidence had come too light.

Funny how that happens.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions but we shouldnt use some other guys opinions as evidence to support why ours are more right or accurate.

Two different THW writers did those rankings.

And if you read the recent posts, bringing up other opinions was just a counter to someone saying only those who vote for Cossa are reasonable fans.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

So next year if we draft Shane Wright and he is voted as our top prospect.. is that shinny new toy syndrome?

I mean it would have to be if you truly believe in shinny new toy syndrome.. right?

That's a bit extreme even for an hyperbole.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

That's a bit extreme even for an hyperbole.

Not at all..

Using the "shiny new toy syndrome" arguement is designed either for dramatic effect or to laugh off others opinions as not valid.

You either believe it or you don't..its about principles.

 

[Shaman464]

Berggren has ranked ahead of Cossa in pretty much every ranking post draft. Hockeywriters, Athletic, Reddit's poll.

But Berggren fans are "rabid" and unreasonable.

Can you like the Athletics' prospect rankings? Because the only ranking I saw from them recently didn't have goalies in the rankings at all. So you're left with the great unwashed of Reddit and THW's prospect list that didn't really expound upon why they put any player where they did in their rankings.

And all that being said, this isn't The Athletics'/THW/Reddits ranking. This is HF's. And HF seems to believe Cossa is a bit better.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Can you like the Athletics' prospect rankings? Because the only ranking I saw from them recently didn't have goalies in the rankings at all. So you're left with the great unwashed of Reddit and THW's prospect list that didn't really expound upon why they put any player where they did in their rankings.

Wheeler commented he would have ranked 3 goalies in his top 50 prospects. Cossa was his 4th ranked prospect.

 

[Shaman464]

Wheeler commented he would have ranked 3 goalies in his top 50 prospects. Cossa was his 4th ranked prospect.

Okay, that still doesn't put him below or above Berggren. They aren't ranked on the same list. So you have THW and Reddit.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Come on guys! 5 more votes for Berggren!

 

[Pavels Dog]

Okay, that still doesn't put him below or above Berggren. They aren't ranked on the same list. So you have THW and Reddit.

Getting kind of ridiculous. If it's unreasonable to rank Berggren ahead of Cossa, nearly every list would reflect that.

 

[SantosHalper]

Stop the count! Cossa won.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

What's the add tally look like?

 

[Shaman464]

Getting kind of ridiculous. If it's unreasonable to rank Berggren ahead of Cossa, nearly every list would reflect that.

The hell are you even on about? You have one list and Reddit as your source. That's cool. People on HF on average don't agree with it. The only thing ridiculous here are the Berggren slappies who say "His floor is Nyquist".

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Stop the count! Cossa won.

Le sigh. You're probably right. Those Veleno, Niederbach and Johansson voters really handed this one to Cossa.

I think it's probably safe to say we can start the next thread at #6 since there's been so much discussion about Berggren in the #3 and #4 thread.
@The Zetterberg Era , make it so!

 

[Pavels Dog]

The hell are you even on about? You have one list and Reddit as your source. That's cool. People on HF on average don't agree with it. The only thing ridiculous here are the Berggren slappies who say "His floor is Nyquist".

Re-read the post before the one where I brought up other sources. There's a 5-6 vote difference here between the supposed "reasonable" and "unreasonable" people.
And those who lean Berggren are the ones holding a minority opinion?

2021 Detroit Red Wings Prospects: Top Shelf Prospects Series
Berggren #4, Cossa #5

NHL top 50 prospects, 2021 edition: Byfield, Caufield and Power headline Wheeler’s drafted skaters ranking
Berggren #48, Cossa mentioned as not being in the top 50

https://thehockeywriters.com/red-wings-prospect-rankings-post-2021-draft/
Berggren #4, Cossa #5

Reddit - Berggren #4, Cossa #5

Btw Reddit is a larger and more active community than this. Their prospect pools get on average 3-4 times the votes these polls do, if not more.