Prospect Info: Detroit Red Wings 2021 Summer Prospect #4

[Syckle78]

If by a few extreme few, you mean the Illitches, Holland, and all of the Detroit media that was preaching rebuilding on the fly. People only started doubted rebuilding on the fly after Datsyuk left at the end of 15-16 season. Was it going to be Nyquist and Tatar that saves us ? Or was it going to be Larkin and Mantha? That wasn't as clear. But there was alot of trust that things would work out. At least thats how I remember things.

I don't believe the front office ever thought we were 0k going forward without a rebuild. I think their only objective was pushing the playoff streak as long as possible and getting the new arena underway before it all came crumbling down. I don't think they actually cared at all about on ice success at that point one way or the other and as we know the Media at that point was little more than a mouthpiece of the front office. I have no idea if that has changed since then as I haven't paid any attention to any local media in years.

 

[Konnan511]

"soon to retire" -MAF
"Vezina Trophy winning" -MAF
"traded for free" -MAF

"Is great at interviews" - MAF
"Has adorable dogs" - MAF
"Broke my heart..." - MAF

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

When did the W become the weakest CHL league?

The OHL has been the strongest for at least a decade, and the QMJHL (traditionally considered the worst of the 3 CHL league) has been getting better over the last 4 or so seasons. I wrote my post before looking at the number of WHL draftees in the NHL but the QMJHL has become a stronger league over the last 5 years. (Although I stand by my point that Cossa was in the weakest division in the WHL).

In 2021 there were 32 draftees from the WHL. 4 of them 1st rounders (5 if you want to count Cole Sillinger). 23 total draftees from the QMJHL, 4 first rounders. Looking through the last 5 years or so the QMJHL is producing 4 or 5 1st round picks a year which keeps up with what the WHL is producing (although in 2020 they did produce 7.)

The QMJHL also went from having 82 players on NHL opening day rosters in 2018 to 96 in 2021, while the WHL went from 143 in 2017 (couldnt't find the 2018 numbers) to 139 in 2021. That's a notable jump for the Q.

139 WHL Alumni named to NHL Opening Night rosters – Brandon Wheat Kings
Many QMJHL players among 2020-2021 NHL opening night rosters – LHJMQ

 

[Go Wings]

I think things got interesting at #2.

I think alot of us knew who wss going to be 2 and 3. After 5 is where it will go off the rails.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I think alot of us knew who wss going to be 2 and 3. After 5 is where it will go off the rails.

Nah. I think whoever loses between Cossa and Berggren can safely be considered #5. #6 might be evenly split between the Veleno camp and Johansson camp but I don't see any real controversy beyond that.

And just think about that: Our top 7 Red Wings prospects are Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson, Berggren, Cossa, Veleno, and Johansson.
Yet the PNHLe model only has 4 players from our whole prospect pool as surefire NHLers.

 

[Syckle78]

Nah. I think whoever loses between Cossa and Berggren can safely be considered #5. #6 might be evenly split between the Veleno camp and Johansson camp but I don't see any real controversy beyond that.

And just think about that: Our top 7 Red Wings prospects are Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson, Berggren, Cossa, Veleno, and Johansson.
Yet the PNHLe model only has 4 players from our whole prospect pool as surefire NHLers.

I don't think that is too far off just on the basis of a conservative estimate. Surefire means locked in can't miss. Even someone as highly touted as Cossa isn't surefire, no such thing when it comes to goalies. A lot can go wrong on the path from draft day to everyday NHLer. Our pipeline looks really good but I wouldn't get too ahead of ourselves. When is the last time someones top 7 or so prospects panned out?

 

[Pavels Dog]

the guy that didn't want to leave his comfort zone

He left home at 15..

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I don't think that is too far off just on the basis of a conservative estimate. Surefire means locked in can't miss. Even someone as highly touted as Cossa isn't surefire, no such thing when it comes to goalies. A lot can go wrong on the path from draft day to everyday NHLer. Our pipeline looks really good but I wouldn't get too ahead of ourselves. When is the last time someones top 7 or so prospects panned out?

We've had what, 40 picks since 2018? If all we get are 4 NHLers out of that we are shooting WAY below NHL average.
Of those we had 6 1st rounders and 9 2nd rounders.

 

[ricky0034]

He left home at 15..

so did basically every other prospect in the league

still very different than moving halfway around the world

 

[newfy]

I don't think that is too far off just on the basis of a conservative estimate. Surefire means locked in can't miss. Even someone as highly touted as Cossa isn't surefire, no such thing when it comes to goalies. A lot can go wrong on the path from draft day to everyday NHLer. Our pipeline looks really good but I wouldn't get too ahead of ourselves. When is the last time someones top 7 or so prospects panned out?

Surefire NHLers is different than completely panning out. With all the picks Detroit has had the last 4 years I would be absolutely shocked if the wings dont have 4 NHLers in the pool right now.

Its not like theyre saying Raymond is a first liner, but do you really think the odds are very high of Raymond at the very least not being a third liner that helps on the PP? Or that Seider carves out a long career as a bottom pairing dman at the very least?

Between Seider, Raymond, Veleno, Edvinsson what do you think the actual odds are that they dont play small roles at the very least in the NHL? Now throw inthe 40 other picks, including a bunch of high second rounders and you think 4 sounds like a good estimate?

 

[Gniwder]

"Is great at interviews" - MAF
"Has adorable dogs" - MAF
"Broke my heart..." - MAF

My offhand comments lead to some really strange tangents here.

Anyways, I haven't been keeping track of MAF news, apparently it's
"A girl is allowed to change her mind" MAF

Ready to 'get to work,' Fleury to join Blackhawks

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I don't think that is too far off just on the basis of a conservative estimate. Surefire means locked in can't miss. Even someone as highly touted as Cossa isn't surefire, no such thing when it comes to goalies. A lot can go wrong on the path from draft day to everyday NHLer. Our pipeline looks really good but I wouldn't get too ahead of ourselves. When is the last time someones top 7 or so prospects panned out?

Here's an interesting and quick read.

What percentage of NHL draft picks make it to the NHL? | Hockey Answered

Between 2004 and 2014 49.1% of the players drafted played in the NHL at some point.
So, if only 4 of our players picked between 2018 and 2021 play in the NHL we are hitting on 9.76% of our 41 picks. That is terrible, dude. And if that happens Yzerman and company should be jettisoned into the sun for being so completely incompetent.

 

[Syckle78]

Surefire NHLers is different than completely panning out. With all the picks Detroit has had the last 4 years I would be absolutely shocked if the wings dont have 4 NHLers in the pool right now.

Its not like theyre saying Raymond is a first liner, but do you really think the odds are very high of Raymond at the very least not being a third liner that helps on the PP? Or that Seider carves out a long career as a bottom pairing dman at the very least?

Between Seider, Raymond, Veleno, Edvinsson what do you think the actual odds are that they dont play small roles at the very least in the NHL? Now throw inthe 40 other picks, including a bunch of high second rounders and you think 4 sounds like a good estimate?

Small roles the odds are good but we clearly have a different idea of what a prospect being a surefire NHLer are. I've seen way too many surefire guys across 4 major sports and college in just Michigan sports fizzle into nothing from Matt Nokes to Darko to just about every Lions savior of the day to ever count my chickens while still in the bush.

 

[Syckle78]

Here's an interesting and quick read.

What percentage of NHL draft picks make it to the NHL? | Hockey Answered

Between 2004 and 2014 49.1% of the players drafted played in the NHL at some point.
So, if only 4 of our players picked between 2018 and 2021 play in the NHL we are hitting on 9.76% of our 41 picks. That is terrible, dude. And if that happens Yzerman and company should be jettisoned into the sun for being so completely incompetent.

Like I said to Newfy I just have a much different idea about what a Surefire prospect is. That's fine, if that's the standard you're right but that standard also doesn't do us any good.

 

[RedWingzz]

I love Cossa's potential and all, but I'm shocked this isn't Berggren...

Fans just love first round picks I guess...

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Small roles the odds are good but we clearly have a different idea of what a prospect being a surefire NHLer are. I've seen way too many surefire guys across 4 major sports and college in just Michigan sports fizzle into nothing from Matt Nokes to Darko to just about every Lions savior of the day to ever count my chickens while still in the bush.

Bro everyone and their mother knew that Darko was a bust from the get go.

 

[Syckle78]

Bro everyone and their mother knew that Darko was a bust from the get go.

Some of us still had a shred of hope and positivity before the chronic cynicism blotted out all light left in our souls.

 

[deca guard]

 

[Shaman464]

I love Cossa's potential and all, but I'm shocked this isn't Berggren...

Fans just love first round picks I guess...

Nah, some people think a single year of production in a European league isn't enough to make someone a top prospect.

 

[drw02]

Nah, some people think a single year of production in a European league isn't enough to make someone a top prospect.

Yet two shortened seasons in a much lower league is somehow good enough to proclaim Cossa as a top prospect. Between SHL and International play, despite suffering a long term injury last year, Berggren still has more than twice as many games played than Cossa over the last two seasons

 

[RedWingzz]

Nah, some people think a single year of production in a European league isn't enough to make someone a top prospect.

Fair enough, but I mean I could use this exact same argument against Cossa. Yeah, his stats are sick in his 52 WHL games, but some people may think 52 games of production in the WHL, on an absolutely stacked team, isn't enough to make someone a top prospect.

Again, I'm a huge believer in Cossa. As a Canadian, I'm pumped to watch a Canadian kid hopefully become Team Canada's starter at the World Juniors, and the Wings goalie of the future. I'm just as excited as everyone else, I'm actually ok with us grabbing him over Wallstedt, but let's not pretend he has done anything to absolutely warrant this spot over Berggren. Let's not overlook how good of a season Berggren just had. I'm not trying to get too far ahead of myself, but Berggren is a legit prospect, and if I was a betting man, I'd bet that Berggren will have a good NHL career.

In my opinion Berggren has shown enough to warrant this spot over Cossa. Now looking at the poll results, I'm in the minority, but I'm good with being in the minority.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Yet two shortened seasons in a much lower league is somehow good enough to proclaim Cossa as a top prospect. Between SHL and International play, despite suffering a long term injury last year, Berggren still has more than twice as many games played than Cossa over the last two seasons

This poll isn't about who is more likely to play 1 NHL game

It's about who has the higher ceiling, potential to get there and the value of that ceiling.

Cossa's projection/ceiling is that of a #1 starting NHL goalie/all star franchise goalie

Berggren would HAVE to project to be a first line star forward/all star franchise forward to be the same tier.

I guess more people so far believe either:
a) Cossa has a better chance to reach that ceiling
b) Cossa's projection as a #1 goalie is infinitely more valuable than Berggrens projection as a middle six forward

I for one hope both players reach their ceiling...

 

[Syckle78]

This poll isn't about who is more likely to play 1 NHL game

It's about who has the higher ceiling, potential to get there and the value of that ceiling.

Cossa's projection/ceiling is that of a #1 starting NHL goalie/all star franchise goalie

Berggren would HAVE to project to be a first line star forward/all star franchise forward to be the same tier.

I guess more people so far believe either:
a) Cossa has a better chance to reach that ceiling
b) Cossa's projection as a #1 goalie is infinitely more valuable than Berggrens projection as a middle six forward

I for one hope both players reach their ceiling...

Summed up my thoughts on it perfectly.

 

[Pavels Dog]

This poll isn't about who is more likely to play 1 NHL game

It's about who has the higher ceiling, potential to get there and the value of that ceiling.

Cossa's projection/ceiling is that of a #1 starting NHL goalie/all star franchise goalie

Berggren would HAVE to project to be a first line star forward/all star franchise forward to be the same tier.

I guess more people so far believe either:
a) Cossa has a better chance to reach that ceiling
b) Cossa's projection as a #1 goalie is infinitely more valuable than Berggrens projection as a middle six forward

I for one hope both players reach their ceiling...

For fun - what % chance are people putting on Cossa to reach "all star franchise goalie"?

 

[Kingpin794]

I love Cossa's potential and all, but I'm shocked this isn't Berggren...

Fans just love first round picks I guess...

Not necessarily. I have Cossa over Berggren but Edvinsonn at 5 on my personal list.