News Article: Detroit Red Wings’ Salary Cap Mess & How Larkin Fits

[InjuredChoker]

Probably one of the better cap dump value deals. Not much of a proof that they consistently bring a better return. For example if we took on some cap dumps, we probably don't trade Tatar(since our roster would be so much worse with less depth) which was a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Continually filling out roster holes with actual NHL players (instead of cap dumps) allows you to trade actual NHL players which tends to give you decent returns.

why not? we would be w/o one of helm/nielsen/dekeyser/ericsson/abby. botto pair D or top 9F that can score about 30 points, sign one of them in FA for 1 or 2 years. would have zero relevance for tatar in my mind.

Weren't our advanced stats similar to Sharks in '16 and to the Kings in '12? Maybe they were better in some very specific stat, some stat that shows that we had absolutely no chance and they were likely to make the SCF.

2012 we were pretty close. i was ok being buyer that year, just not for that particular player at that particular price. i recall wanting F instead of D too but i could stomach it.

'16 were relatively far off from the sharks, they were number #3in scoring chance ratio, we about 10 spots lower. the biggest thing that pretty much guaranteed we had no chance was that we longer had an elite player on out roster.

 

[Winger98]

Seperate the player from the contract for a second. Talking solely about selling while in a playoff position it happens so rarely that I don’t see any way to criticize Holland for not doing it without essentially criticizing every GM for not doing it.
There’s a nice saying that goes ”you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take”. Taking a 1% chance at a cup run is preferable to most over deliberately putting that chance at 0.
Kings in ’12 and Sharks at ’16 should have probably sold if you go by the ”they were longshots!” strategy.

The '12 Kings also had a core in the early-mid 20s. If Datysuk, Z, and Kronwall were all 26, 24, and 21 I wouldn't be big on the sale wagon, either. With SJ, I don't know what their contract situation looked like.

The contract/roster situation is what made Detroit's position pivotal and where selling could have been made. I'm not pushing this as a catch-all for every team, I'm saying that this specific season with this specific Wings team was conducive to selling early and jumpstarting the rebuild. Just as I haven't advocated dumping these guys since those deals because I think it would cost more to move them and diminish returns to force a move now rather than hang on and deal them when their deals are up again.

Though, personally, I don't think they're dealt then, either.

 

[obey86]

Despite all the bad contracts on the books or whatever, the Red Wings are just fine with the salary cap moving forward.

**Next offseason they have ~20M in cap space opening up with none of those players being a must re-sign.
**The following offseason they have ANOTHER 24M in cap space opening up with only Mantha, Bertuzzi, and AA as likely re-signs, and all are still RFA.
**The FOLLOWING offseason they have another 14M in cap space opening up with none of those players being must re-signs.
**And finally, the season after that he has another 10M in cap space opening up with none those players being must re-signs.

For all the criticisms of all Holland, many of them fair, he has always seemed to do a good job of staggering contracts just right to leave some open and available cap space. If i'm the Red Wings, i'm targeting the 2020 offseason as the time to really start competing for the playoffs again. They will have ~44M (minus Mantha, AA, Bertuzzi) in extra cap space compared to now, and probably two more top 5-10 draft draft picks on the roster.

Can you imagine a roster something like this going into the 2020 offseason? There's definitely a potential future there IMO. Lots of young talent with upside, lots of cap maneuverability.

Ras - Larkin - Mantha
Zadina - 2019 top 5-10 pick - Bertuzzi
AA - Nielsen - Berggren/Veleno/Svech
Abdelkader - Glendening -Helm

2020 top 5-10 pick - Hronek
DeKeyser - Cholowski
??? - ???

After signing Mantha, AA (maybe), Bertuzzi and raises for Zadina and Ras, plus a rising cap, they still will have plenty of cap space to make a FA splash if they can/want to.

 

[StargateSG1]

Despite all the bad contracts on the books or whatever, the Red Wings are just fine with the salary cap moving forward.

**Next offseason they have ~20M in cap space opening up with none of those players being a must re-sign.
**The following offseason they have ANOTHER 24M in cap space opening up with only Mantha, Bertuzzi, and AA as likely re-signs, and all are still RFA.
**The FOLLOWING offseason they have another 14M in cap space opening up with none of those players being must re-signs.
**And finally, the season after that he has another 10M in cap space opening up with none those players being must re-signs.

For all the criticisms of all Holland, many of them fair, he has always seemed to do a good job of staggering contracts just right to leave some open and available cap space. If i'm the Red Wings, i'm targeting the 2020 offseason as the time to really start competing for the playoffs again. They will have ~44M (minus Mantha, AA, Bertuzzi) in extra cap space compared to now, and probably two more top 5-10 draft draft picks on the roster.

Can you imagine a roster something like this going into the 2020 offseason? There's definitely a potential future there IMO. Lots of young talent with upside, lots of cap maneuverability.

Ras - Larkin - Mantha
Zadina - 2019 top 5-10 pick - Bertuzzi
AA - Nielsen - Berggren/Veleno/Svech
Abdelkader - Glendening -Helm

2020 top 5-10 pick - Hronek
DeKeyser - Cholowski
??? - ???

After signing Mantha, AA (maybe), Bertuzzi and raises for Zadina and Ras, plus a rising cap, they still will have plenty of cap space to make a FA splash if they can/want to.

Yeah, great "rebuild strategy", just wait for all the screwed up contracts to expire.
That's + 3 years of futility, just sitting and waiting around.
I guess Kenny's rebuilds do take 15 years.
We should be relevant again by 2025ish.

 

[Winger98]

Yeah, great "rebuild strategy", just wait for all the screwed up contracts to expire.
That's + 3 years of futility, just sitting and waiting around.
I guess Kenny's rebuilds do take 15 years.
We should be relevant again by 2025ish.

Well, we can afford to let them expire because the Wings are bad anyway. If Holland competently spent to the cap it'd be a different story.