Kaners Bald Spot
Registered User
I'm going to go back to 2000 and look through 2015 and we can see how often the best player was taken in the top 3:If that's the case there would be no reason to complain if the league restricted how often a team can be awarded the 1st overall pick.
People would not complain at all if a team had a horrible season and won the lottery for what was perceived as the first time.
Did anyone really complain about who won the right to Patrick kane or Auston Matthews? No of course not. Neither team had won the pick in a very long time and it was perceived as fair. People did however complain about McDavid. So much so that they changed the rules. Why? Because the same team had been awarded 1st four out of six years. Not fair to most fans.
People are pissed without question this year because yet another bubble team will win the lottery and it may possibly be a team that was awarded 1st and won a Cup. No effing way that is fair.
2000:
1. DiPietro
2. Heatley
3. Gaborik
Best player: Henrik Lundqvist(205)
Verdict: No, but close...Heatley and Gaborik are the next best players.
2001:
1. Kovalchuk
2. Spezza
3. Svitov
Best Player: Kovalchuk
Verdict: Yes
2002:
1. Rick Nash
2. Kari Lehtonen
3. Jay Bouwmeester
Best player: Duncan Keith(54)
Verdict: No
2003:
1. Marc-Andre Fleury
2. Eric Staal
3. Nathan Horton
Best Player: Either Getzlaf(19) or Bergeron(45) depending on personal taste
Verdict: No, but this draft was loaded and the top 3 did very well for themselves.
2004:
1. Ovechkin
2. Malkin
3. Barker
Best Player: Ovechkin
This is one year where outside the top 2 there was slim pickings.
Verdict: Yes
2005:
1. Crosby
2. Bobby Ryan
3. Jack Johnson
Best player: Crosby
Verdict: Yes....but the second best player is Kopitar who was taken 11th.
2006:
1. Erik Johnson
2. Jordan Staal
3. Jonathan Toews
Best player.....arguable between Toews/Backstrom/Giroux. This is a matter of personal taste, as all three have arguments to be the best player.
Verdict: Maybe
2007:
1. Patrick Kane
2. J. Van Riemsdyk
3. Kyle Turris
Best Player: Kane
Verdict: Yes
2008:
1. Stamkos
2. Doughty
3. Bogosian
Best Player.......Probably Erik Karlsson but it's close between Karlsson/Stamkos/Doughty
Verdict: Maybe
2009:
1. Tavares
2. Hedman
3. Duchene
Best Player: Either Tavares or Hedman
Verdict: Yes
2010:
1. Hall
2. Seguin
3. Gudbranson
Best player: Either Hall or Seguin
Verdict: Yes
2011:
1. Nugent-Hopkins
2. Landeskog
3. Huberdeau
Best player: Kucherov(58)
Verdict: No
2012:
1.Yakupov
2. Ryan Murray
3. Galchenyuk
Best player: Vasilevskiy(19)
Verdict: No
2013:
1. MacKinnon
2. Barkov
3. Drouin
Best player: MacKinnon
Verdict: Yes
2014:
1. Ekblad
2. Sam Reinhart
3. Draisaitl
Best Player: Arguable between Draisaitl and Pastrnak(25)...slight edge to Drai because he's a center.
Verdict.......Maybe. This one could go either way.
2015:
1. McDavid
2. Eichel
3. Dylan Strome
Best Player: McDavid
Verdict: Yes.
(end of analysis)
How many times does the best player go in the top 3? In 16 drafts, the verdict was:
Yes: 8
No: 5
Maybe: 3
Let's say for the sake of argument that it's about 60/40.
at best, if you argue for Toews/Draisaitl/Doughty or Stamkos, it becomes 11/16 which becomes just under 69%. If you argue for the other options, it drops to 50/50.
So, the current system is fine, as it's possible to find the best player in the draft outside the top 3 in 40% of the drafts on average.