Detroit and the Lottery

[Trap Jesus]

Percentages taken from Wikipedia's Draft Lottery pages.

Year	Placement	Chance at Top 3 Pick	Chance to at Least Stand Ground	Chance to Move Down	Chance to Move Down 2+ Spots	Chance to Move Down 3 Spots	Result
2017	7th	20.90%	44.30%	55.70%	16%	1.20%	7th-9th
2018	5th	26.10%	34.50%	65.50%	31%	4.30%	5th-6th
2019	4th	28.80%	31.60%	68.40%	42.30%	8.30%	4th-6th
2020	1st	49.40%	18.50%	81.5%%	65%	50.60%	1st-4th

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Click to read more...

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

That’s a shame

 

[LeafsNation75]

That's also happened to Colorado twice under the current draft lottery when they had the best chances in 2017 and in 2019 with Ottawa's 1st round pick.

 

[Pavels Dog]

It is what it is. People will still say it’s rigged when we finally win a #3OA pick in 2023 or something.

We will have best odds next year too, so it will be another chance at top 3.

 

[amnesiac]

Wings were a top 3 seed for 20+ years.... I dont mind them taking a break

 

[Gil Gunderson]

That's also happened to Colorado twice under the current draft lottery when they had the best chances in 2017 and in 2019 with Ottawa's 1st round pick.

Ottawa's pick will always lose. Even today, it was the Sharks one that won 3rd.

 

[The Macho King]

Get gud

 

[NoShowWilly]

wow can't imagine being that unlucky

 

[Bondurant]

The bounce of Bettman's balls is cruel. A top 3 pick would have been perfect. A few albatross contracts to wait out. I think Yzerman make take one more crack at the lottery. A rough few years ahead still.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Personally feel the draft lottery system needs to go, or at least see a significant change to the percentages.

Feel for Wings fans. As an Avs fan I’ve been there a couple times.

I hope for you guys that it works out the way it did for us in 2017.

 

[Mickey Marner]

4 cups, 4 drops in the lotto, looks fair to me.

 

[AvsFan29]

That's also happened to Colorado twice under the current draft lottery when they had the best chances in 2017 and in 2019 with Ottawa's 1st round pick.

And we ended up with Makar and Byram. Detroit will be fine under Yzerman

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Falling at the top of the draft is a self fulfilling prophecy because the closer to 1 your seed is, the more likely you are to fall.

If I'm Detroit, or any of the teams who fell, I would not be upset about falling under normal circumstances. But, it would leave a bad taste in my mouth that the NHL's chosen format could lead to a contender getting Lafreniere at the expense of my team.

I think the thing is, the NHL can't change this format for a long time. The way it works is that when you're bad, it screws you, and then when you're rising up in your build, maybe you luck into that extra push like some of the teams who have received a top 3 pick from a bubble playoff spot. If you look at teams who are rebuilding right now like Detroit and Ottawa, who have not picked high for decades, it would suck for them if the NHL went and changed the rules just as they are done the early part of their rebuild. So they get screwed for 3-4 years while they are bad, but then never get to benefit from the same rules that screwed them when they eventually reach playoff bubble status and get the extra bonus of a 1-5 percent shot at a lottery pick while still competing for playoffs.

 

[Michoulicious]

Year	Placement	Chance at Top 3 Pick	Chance to at Least Stand Ground	Chance to Move Down	Chance to Move Down 2+ Spots	Chance to Move Down 3 Spots	Result
2017	7th	20.9%	44.3%	55.7%	16%	1.2%	7th -> 9th
2018	5th	26.1%	34.5%	65.5%	31%	4.3%	5th -> 6th
2019	4th	28.8%	31.6%	68.4%	42.3%	8.3%	4th->6th
2020	1st	49.4%	N/A	50.6%	N/A	N/A	1st->4th

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Percentages taken from Wikipedia's Draft Lottery pages.

Tonight they had just a tad more chance picking #4 OA than in the top 3... And in my (very) humble opinion, Byfield/Stützle/Drysdale are equivalent talent, so the difference between #2 and #4 OA is very, very minimal in that specific draft. The only way they could have done really better is if they won #1 OA, which was happening less than 1 time out of 5 (18,5%).

The biggest problem in Detroit is the way they picked in the top 10 in the last few years. It's bad.

In 2018, they could have picked Q. Hugues, but they chose Zadina. Big mistake.

Rasmussen at #9 OA in 2017 is also very bad, when Suzuki/Necas/Brannstrom were still available.

I personally thought Zegras was a no-brainer last year. They needed a quality C prospect more than anything. Kid has so much talent, it's incredible. Seider ended up with a nice D+1, but I still think Zegras will be a superstar American center. Maybe Stevie Y. proves me wrong.

I just don't think they can go wrong at #4 OA this year... They will have a great player no matter who falls there.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Ottawa's pick will always lose. Even today, it was the Sharks one that won 3rd.

That must make it look worse for Detroit fans since Ottawa ended up with the 3rd overall pick which they only got by trading Erik Karlsson.

 

[Mikeshane]

Stinks for new fans.

Long time fans had Lidstrom, Yzerman, Fedorov, Datsyuk & 4 cups.

 

[LeafsNation75]

And we ended up with Makar and Byram. Detroit will be fine under Yzerman

I'm sure it didn't feel good dropping from the 1st pick to the 4th pick, despite it working out for Colorado based on who they selected with those 4th overall picks.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

It is what it is. People will still say it’s rigged when we finally win a #3OA pick in 2023 or something.

We will have best odds next year too, so it will be another chance at top 3.

Honestly, I wouldn't bet on this. Detroit is still gonna be a bad team, but they're going to add quite a few pieces next year.

 

[ItsFineImFine]

Personally feel the draft lottery system needs to go, or at least see a significant change to the percentages.

Feel for Wings fans. As an Avs fan I’ve been there a couple times.

I hope for you guys that it works out the way it did for us in 2017.

The NHL under this regime consistently screws up whenever they try to fix things. They swung to an extreme due to Edmonton in the 2010s. In this lottery, they gave the 8 placeholders a 25ish% chance of winning which is higher than any single actual team in the bottom 6. It's fine, it's the NHL, it's chaos whatever.

 

[jetsforever]

It's unfortunate for sure but at least they've had some winning to numb the pain.

 

[Bondurant]

In 2018, they could have picked Q. Hugues, but they chose Zadina. Big mistake.

This will sting for a long time.

 

[K Fleur]

 

[TheOtherOne]

Yzerman was drafted 4th.

 

[Michoulicious]

Yzerman was drafted 4th.

Exactly.

 

[Little Psycho]

Oh no sounds terrible.